The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[sidcow]

Yes, I'm assuming the EU would allow us back in but I think it highly unlikely they wouldn't like us back, especially when we're not being run by a bunch of xenophobic arseholes.  We've still got the 6th largest economy in the world.  We would strengthen the EU immeasurably. 

And I don't at all buy that we can't have another referendum.   It's been 8 years since the referendum. I think a decade to reflect on what it's brought us is a reasonable length of time. Twice the term of a General Election. 

Edited January 21 by sidcow

[chrisp65]

It would be a dilemma for the EU if we wanted to join.

France didn’t want us in for a long time and they’d likely be torn again this time. On the one hand, it’s trouble turning up again and changing a balance of power. On the other hand, what a prize, what an example for other dissenters.

If we rejoined relatively soon, we’d also probably still be a net contributor of money.

[ml1dch]

35 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Yes, I'm assuming the EU would allow us back in but I think it highly unlikely they wouldn't like us back, especially when we're not being run by a bunch of xenophobic arseholes.  We've still got the 6th largest economy in the world.  We would strengthen the EU immeasurably. 

And I don't at all buy that we can't have another referendum.   It's been 8 years since the referendum. I think a decade to reflect on what it's brought us is a reasonable length of time. Twice the term of a General Election. 

Nobody is disputing that they wouldn't welcome back a stable, united version of the UK back into the fold. And everything suggests that will happen within a couple of electoral cycles.

But they will take the current (massively imbalanced in their favour anyway) relationship over constant accession / secession talks with every new government who sees it as an easy wedge issue to squeeze an extra half dozen seats out of Lancashire and Cumbria.

And have whatever referendum you like. As long as you know what is in the Government's power to offer in the question that they ask. 

Edited January 21 by ml1dch

[sidcow]

11 hours ago, ml1dch said:

Nobody is disputing that they wouldn't welcome back a stable, united version of the UK back into the fold. And everything suggests that will happen within a couple of electoral cycles.

But they will take the current (massively imbalanced in their favour anyway) relationship over constant accession / secession talks with every new government who sees it as an easy wedge issue to squeeze an extra half dozen seats out of Lancashire and Cumbria.

And have whatever referendum you like. As long as you know what is in the Government's power to offer in the question that they ask. 

The only argument I put forward is that it was possible to rejoin the EU. I wasn't trying to say how likely it was or on what terms. But there is absolutely no reason why we could not go back in. 

Edited January 22 by sidcow

[Genie]

10 hours ago, sidcow said:

The only argument I put forward is that it was possible to rejoin the EU. I wasn't trying to say how likely it was or on what terms. But there is absolutely no reason why we could9go back in. 

There also doesn’t have to be a referendum either. Obviously it would be crazy not to given what has gone before, but a government could just crack on and apply/negotiate membership if they wanted to.

[LondonLax]

As mentioned, the U.K. can do whatever it likes but the EU is not going to allow a divided U.K. back, only for Farage to win another leave campaign in 5 years time.

Another disputed referendum is pointless, even if ‘rejoin’ were to win.

The U.K. needs to be settled and bipartisan on the issue before it would get taken up. A referendum would probably not even be needed if there is such overwhelming consensus from all sides by that point. 

[sidcow]

2 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

As mentioned, the U.K. can do whatever it likes but the EU is not going to allow a divided U.K. back, only for Farage to win another leave campaign in 5 years time.

Another disputed referendum is pointless, even if ‘rejoin’ were to win.

The U.K. needs to be settled and bipartisan on the issue before it would get taken up. A referendum would probably not even be needed if there is such overwhelming consensus from all sides by that point. 

How can you have a disputed referendum?  The result is the result. 

Anyway, unlike leave I would expect a margin for success.  In excess of 60% for example. 

[Genie]

6 minutes ago, sidcow said:

How can you have a disputed referendum?  The result is the result. 

Anyway, unlike leave I would expect a margin for success.  In excess of 60% for example. 

The case for rejoin should be so much stronger than leave ever was.

Now rejoin opens up a world of opportunity for business, students, retirees, investment, admin. There’s a million benefits to rejoin.

What the case to remain out? The sovereignty thing has been proven to be a red herring. Immigration, red herring.

The time isn’t right now, but when people like Starmer keep talking about growth being the key to unlock lower taxes, investment in the NHS and police he MUST be thinking about re-aligning with the EU in some way.

[bickster]

10 minutes ago, sidcow said:

How can you have a disputed referendum?  The result is the result. 

maybe disputed is the wrong word. 52 / 48 is close. If that moves to say  70 / 30 that isn't close and what polling you can find (it isn't polled that often these days) suggests we are heading in that direction. One in Five Leave voters have apparently changed their minds and twice as many want to be in rather than out but there is still way too big an undecided element in any of the polling

Much like with the decline of the Tory Party, demographics will eventually sort this out

[sidcow]

6 minutes ago, bickster said:

maybe disputed is the wrong word. 52 / 48 is close. If that moves to say  70 / 30 that isn't close and what polling you can find (it isn't polled that often these days) suggests we are heading in that direction. One in Five Leave voters have apparently changed their minds and twice as many want to be in rather than out but there is still way too big an undecided element in any of the polling

Much like with the decline of the Tory Party, demographics will eventually sort this out

**** me. How can 4 in 5 leave voters still believe this has gone exactly how they expected? 

[bickster]

I was wrong about the polling not being done very often and you'll see the problem in these figures

12–15 Jan 2024	Deltapoll	N/A	2,136	46%	38%	15%	8%
11–12 Jan 2024	Omnisis	N/A	1,161	50%	33%	17%	17%
4–5 Jan 2024	Omnisis	N/A	1,226	48%	32%	20%	16%
2–3 Jan 2024	YouGov	N/A	2,016	51%	36%	13%	15%
28–30 Dec 2023	Omnisis	N/A	1,181	49%	33%	18%	16%
22–29 Dec 2023	Deltapoll	Daily Mirror	1,642	47%	39%	14%	8%
20–22 Dec 2023	Omnisis	N/A	1,177	48%	34%	18%	14%
14–15 Dec 2023	Omnisis	N/A	1,065	46%	34%	20%	12%
10–11 Dec 2023	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	UK in a Changing Europe	2,000	52%	40%	8%	12%
8–11 Dec 2023	Deltapoll	N/A	1,005	44%	41%	15%	3%
7–8 Dec 2023	Omnisis	N/A	1,201	46%	34%	20%	12%
1–4 Dec 2023	Deltapoll	N/A	1,000	45%	40%	15%	5%
30 Nov – 1 Dec 2023	Omnisis	N/A	1,123	46%	31%	23%	15%

Wiki has a page dedicated to it

End columns are Sample Size / Rejoin / Stay Out / Don't Know

[bickster]

1 minute ago, sidcow said:

**** me. How can 4 in 5 leave voters still believe this has gone exactly how they expected? 

I didn't say that and neither did the polling

(1) there is an element of don't know

(2) gone as expected is a COMPLETELY different question

[ml1dch]

23 minutes ago, bickster said:

I was wrong about the polling not being done very often and you'll see the problem in these figures

12–15 Jan 2024	Deltapoll	N/A	2,136	46%	38%	15%	8%
11–12 Jan 2024	Omnisis	N/A	1,161	50%	33%	17%	17%
4–5 Jan 2024	Omnisis	N/A	1,226	48%	32%	20%	16%
2–3 Jan 2024	YouGov	N/A	2,016	51%	36%	13%	15%
28–30 Dec 2023	Omnisis	N/A	1,181	49%	33%	18%	16%
22–29 Dec 2023	Deltapoll	Daily Mirror	1,642	47%	39%	14%	8%
20–22 Dec 2023	Omnisis	N/A	1,177	48%	34%	18%	14%
14–15 Dec 2023	Omnisis	N/A	1,065	46%	34%	20%	12%
10–11 Dec 2023	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	UK in a Changing Europe	2,000	52%	40%	8%	12%
8–11 Dec 2023	Deltapoll	N/A	1,005	44%	41%	15%	3%
7–8 Dec 2023	Omnisis	N/A	1,201	46%	34%	20%	12%
1–4 Dec 2023	Deltapoll	N/A	1,000	45%	40%	15%	5%
30 Nov – 1 Dec 2023	Omnisis	N/A	1,123	46%	31%	23%	15%

Wiki has a page dedicated to it

End columns are Sample Size / Rejoin / Stay Out / Don't Know

Also, take a quick glance at the polling for "rejoin EU" and "rejoin EU if required to adopt the Euro" and they are wildly different.

The second of those points (whether we should / whether we would have to promise to / whether we actually would) is something with a lot of nuance - but you can bet now what the other side of any future "rejoin or not" campaign is going to be based around.

[sidcow]

27 minutes ago, bickster said:

I didn't say that and neither did the polling

(1) there is an element of don't know

(2) gone as expected is a COMPLETELY different question

If only 1 in 5 have changed their mind it's a good assumption that 4 in 5 is happy with how it's gone no? 

[chrisp65]

1 minute ago, sidcow said:

If only 1 in 5 have changed their mind it's a good assumption that 4 in 5 is happy with how it's gone no? 

It’s the word ‘happy’. If 1 in 5 have changed their mind, then 4 of 5 haven’t. Whether they are happy isn’t in the data. They might well think it’s been a terrible shit show and if only we’d dropped a few warning bombs on Paris we’d be in a much better position. But even this bollocksed brexit is less bad than being slaves to the Germans. 

[mjmooney]

6 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

It’s the word ‘happy’. If 1 in 5 have changed their mind, then 4 of 5 haven’t. Whether they are happy isn’t in the data. They might well think it’s been a terrible shit show and if only we’d dropped a few warning bombs on Paris we’d be in a much better position. But even this bollocksed brexit is less bad than being slaves to the Germans. 

This. Once they've nailed their colours to the "I don't like Johnny Foreigner" mast on social media, that's it, no going back. Nothing rational about it. 

[bickster]

9 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

If 1 in 5 have changed their mind, then 4 of 5 haven’t.

Even that isn't correct. The question is usually phrased "if there was another referendum...." Around 1 in 5 would vote rejoin but there is still another element of don't know.

[chrisp65]

I wouldn’t vote to rejoin. Not if it meant I couldn’t have a pint of wine and then shit in the river. Liberty or death!

 

[Xann]

The multiple problems Tory Brexit Britain made for itself have been compounded by fossil fuel interests gouging us (which again was compounded by the Tories letting the bulk storage of gas go, which enabled us to be turned over).

Things are so clusterf***ed. It's quite challenging choosing which thread to moan in?

The fact that my CD from Poland is much more expensive now, down to Brexit taxes and profiteering by the energy industry, is further made worse by privatised Royal Mail serving up a sack of shit. They're letting letters slip and concentrating on parcels, whilst negotitiating to drop more services so they can continue looking after shareholders as a priority.

It's only going get worse, year on year. This is the shallow end for the Royal Mail. Look at the rivers of shit and the trains.

Now steel's on the way out, we're relying on other countries. It would have been less of an issue if we were still in the EU, we'd be in a stronger position as a buyer, and they're our nearest neighbours for shipping.

We've increased our dependency on foreign help.

Self sufficiency is strength, we have weakened ourselves tremendously, and will continue to get weaker and less competitive. For what? Continued tax evasion for the parasite class, and indulging the delusions of f***ing idiots?

What a nation of clueless rocket polishers.

[Enda]

19 hours ago, sidcow said:

But there is absolutely no reason why we could not go back in. 

There are 100 reasons.

Every EU country has a veto on new members. You ready to accede to whatever concessions a newly elected Sinn Féin government in Ireland would want? And ditto the farmers in Flanders and so on.

You’d need to the monetary union. That would be a problem. You’d probably have to join Schengen. That’s a problem.

Your country still doesn’t have a decent understanding of what the EU is/does. That’s a problem.

Rejoining would be at least 50% as messy as leaving was, imho.