darrenm Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 15 minutes ago, PieFacE said: We haven't left yet... Exactly. And when we do leave there's still the possibility we might give the NHS an extra £350m a week so maybe that's not a lie either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted December 13, 2016 VT Supporter Share Posted December 13, 2016 Quote Hold off the jibes and sighs over how much poorer Brexit Britain will be. Forget about the mendacity and slipperiness of Boris ’n’ Nigel. In the six months since the referendum these have been the clever arguments to make, the ones that fill the sophisticated newspapers and BBC discussions. But none answer the far simpler and much harder question: then what? What happens when 17 million people get the feeling they’ve been cheated? The Grauniad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post lapal_fan Posted December 13, 2016 Popular Post Share Posted December 13, 2016 I've read the last few pages and so on.... I think this whole thing wouldn't have even been an issue if London had spread the wealth a bit more. But no, whilst 1 square mile of London City grows ever taller, the bankers get ever fatter, the rest of the country has to cut millions of pounds out of council budgets. Stockholders always want more, so wage freezes happens, so the fatties get fatter (see more influence/"powerful"). It just ends up as a poor builder from Crakow getting the blame. Is it 1914 again? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 minute ago, lapal_fan said: But no, whilst 1 square mile of London City grows ever taller, the bankers get ever fatter, the rest of the country has to cut millions of pounds out of council budgets. Stockholders always want more, so wage freezes happens, so the fatties get fatter (see more influence/"powerful"). So what do "the people" do? Rally behind an ex-banker. Satire is realism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lapal_fan Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Just now, StefanAVFC said: So what do "the people" do? Rally behind an ex-banker. Satire is realism. Show's actually how powerful these figures are though. And I wonder if the end-game will be war, as it has been for the last millenia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 v Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post HanoiVillan Posted December 13, 2016 Popular Post Share Posted December 13, 2016 13 minutes ago, Chindie said: What happens when 17 million people get the feeling they’ve been cheated? Then they'll blame it on immigrants, foreigners, liberals, Muslims, queers, whoever really. What happened when Americans felt they'd been cheated? It's so obvious the question barely needs to be asked. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meregreen Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 hour ago, chrisp65 said: ...he said a leave VOTE would lead to immediate and profound consequences, recession, mass unemployment etc.. people VOTED leave, it didn't happen The value of the pound and rising inflation might suggest otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 hour ago, meregreen said: The value of the pound and rising inflation might suggest otherwise. Really? Immediate and profound consequences, record recessions, mass unemployment? Crashed exchange rates? Plagues of locust? The interbank exchange spot rate on the euro back in April (and a random few other months well before the vote when remain were touted as likely winners) was 1 euro cost 78p, today 1 euro costs 83p. That’s a change of 5p, or 6%. Back in June you’d get $1.33 for your pound, today it’s $1.27, that’s 6 cents or 5% different. About that unemployment figure. He forecast a loss of 820,000 in 2 years. Well, 6 months in, according to the ONS, there are Quote 49,000 MORE people in employment than back in June So for that one to be right, and it could still be right, it would need us to now lose 870,000 in the next 18 months. Might happen I guess. Perhaps I’m not the type to see a crisis, but a 5% fluctuation in currency isn’t ‘profound’. Jobs going up a few not down a lot isn’t ‘profound’. Longer term, who knows. But Osbourne was talking about the morning after, not some date off on the horizon. He was warning of the need for drastic emergency brexit budgets to save the ship. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 It's surely a given that Osborne was (and is) a lying little shit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MakemineVanilla Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 2 hours ago, meregreen said: The value of the pound and rising inflation might suggest otherwise. At least they've started adding lard to the banknotes to ensure we have something to eat if we get hyper-inflation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dont_do_it_doug. Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Playing devil's advocate here - wouldn't the economic argument be that outside of the EU, Britain (Wales) with more control over its trade deals etc can make up that deficit of £70 per head and then some? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villakram Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 3 hours ago, chrisp65 said: Really? Immediate and profound consequences, record recessions, mass unemployment? Crashed exchange rates? Plagues of locust? The interbank exchange spot rate on the euro back in April (and a random few other months well before the vote when remain were touted as likely winners) was 1 euro cost 78p, today 1 euro costs 83p. That’s a change of 5p, or 6%. Back in June you’d get $1.33 for your pound, today it’s $1.27, that’s 6 cents or 5% different. About that unemployment figure. He forecast a loss of 820,000 in 2 years. Well, 6 months in, according to the ONS, there are So for that one to be right, and it could still be right, it would need us to now lose 870,000 in the next 18 months. Might happen I guess. Perhaps I’m not the type to see a crisis, but a 5% fluctuation in currency isn’t ‘profound’. Jobs going up a few not down a lot isn’t ‘profound’. Longer term, who knows. But Osbourne was talking about the morning after, not some date off on the horizon. He was warning of the need for drastic emergency brexit budgets to save the ship. and vs the petrodollar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 6 hours ago, chrisp65 said: Really? Immediate and profound consequences, record recessions, mass unemployment? Crashed exchange rates? Plagues of locust? The interbank exchange spot rate on the euro back in April (and a random few other months well before the vote when remain were touted as likely winners) was 1 euro cost 78p, today 1 euro costs 83p. That’s a change of 5p, or 6%. Back in June you’d get $1.33 for your pound, today it’s $1.27, that’s 6 cents or 5% different. About that unemployment figure. He forecast a loss of 820,000 in 2 years. Well, 6 months in, according to the ONS, there are So for that one to be right, and it could still be right, it would need us to now lose 870,000 in the next 18 months. Might happen I guess. Perhaps I’m not the type to see a crisis, but a 5% fluctuation in currency isn’t ‘profound’. Jobs going up a few not down a lot isn’t ‘profound’. Longer term, who knows. But Osbourne was talking about the morning after, not some date off on the horizon. He was warning of the need for drastic emergency brexit budgets to save the ship. You guys haven't actually left the EU yet. Just talk of it has devalued the £. The whole Armageddon scenario was based around the premise that Cameron would enact Artical 50 the day after the vote. As it happened he just threw his arms up in the air and said 'this is all too difficult' and nothing has happened since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 3 hours ago, dont_do_it_doug. said: Playing devil's advocate here - wouldn't the economic argument be that outside of the EU, Britain (Wales) with more control over its trade deals etc can make up that deficit of £70 per head and then some? Well, that's the hope. But between that pious hope and an economic argument, lie many thousands of hours of discussion by several hundred still-to-be-recruited skilled and trained and experienced negotiators, working with scores of countries which have yet to decide if spending the time of their staff on this is quite the same priority for them as it is for us. Assuming we have enough stuff to offer all of them in exchange for the things we have to import, of course. But hey, let's serve article 50 anyway! Starting the detonation worked ok for Sigourney Weaver in Alien, yes? Stop talking Britain down! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Yep, we haven't left yet. But all we've learnt so far is that any prediction of any UK economics has to also forecast whether OPEC will reduce oil supply. It has to work out what the USA interest rate will be for the next 2 years. It has to anticipate whether Italian banks will collapse. It has to work out if Germany will vote AFD. We could still have that unemployment figure come true. If it does happen, from where we are today, it'll mean that from January 1st 2017 we will have to lose 48,000 jobs a month. Every month. Every month for 18 months. It could happen. I was simply pointing out that both sides offered 'facts' that were not facts. I genuinely hope it all goes brilliantly well. I didn't vote for it, I'm in no rush for it. The prats, bastards and con men in charge of it shouldn't be given an easy ride. But I have no interest in personally being worse off, just so I can say 'told you so'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MakemineVanilla Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 10 hours ago, chrisp65 said: Yep, we haven't left yet. But all we've learnt so far is that any prediction of any UK economics has to also forecast whether OPEC will reduce oil supply. It has to work out what the USA interest rate will be for the next 2 years. It has to anticipate whether Italian banks will collapse. It has to work out if Germany will vote AFD. We could still have that unemployment figure come true. If it does happen, from where we are today, it'll mean that from January 1st 2017 we will have to lose 48,000 jobs a month. Every month. Every month for 18 months. It could happen. I was simply pointing out that both sides offered 'facts' that were not facts. I genuinely hope it all goes brilliantly well. I didn't vote for it, I'm in no rush for it. The prats, bastards and con men in charge of it shouldn't be given an easy ride. But I have no interest in personally being worse off, just so I can say 'told you so'. You may be the exception, but as every psychotherapist knows, the incurable cases are the ones where the patient would rather win the argument than feel better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 11 hours ago, MakemineVanilla said: You may be the exception, but as every psychotherapist knows, the incurable cases are the ones where the patient would rather win the argument than feel better. We had a discussion in our office about the forthcoming review and bonus session. The two options put forward over a coffee for discussion were as follows: Option 1: everyone gets a £500 bonus, except you, you get £750 Option 2: Dave gets £2,000, Alan gets £1,800, Phil gets £2,300 but you get £1,750 Question, would you prefer option 1 or option 2 to happen. Two people in a group of four chose option 1 as to them it was obvious it would prove they were top dog. It's a real mindset that really is out there. These people are allowed to vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Possibly significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 7 hours ago, HanoiVillan said: Possibly significant. I'll say, is that not a clear violation of the Swiss Constitution? The Swiss People's Party (SVP) will be laughing all the way to the next election. It's almost like the elites are deliberately arming the populists. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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