The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[blandy]

2 hours ago, Awol said:

No idea if she is right or not

I suspect that the likes of UKIP, the Rees-Mogg tendency, the Government lawyers, the various anti EU groups and bodies across the continent and UK clearly never having mentioned anything along the lines she does, suggests very strongly that she's either basically trolling (deliberately misinterpreting) or is in fact stupid.

The phrase 

3 hours ago, blandy said:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

Means the process of reaching a decision to leave may be done iaw the state's own arrangements - e.g. referendum/ parliamentary decision/lottery/paper, scissors stones.

the next section refers to the mechanism by which agreement on the T&Cs of leaving happen

3 hours ago, blandy said:

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention.... the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal,

she's wrong.

[peterms]

1 hour ago, blandy said:

Again, I'm not a lawyer, but she's clearly talking clearly bollocks.

Deciding to do something is not the same as doing it.

I've decided to leave work right now....my boss says I have to stay to the agreed time.

'kin experts eh, who needs 'em? . Oh!

There's another piece saying something similar here:

Quote

Theoretically, there is nothing to stop a British Government unilaterally withdrawing from the EU by simply repealing the 1972 European Communities Act. Article 50 compels only the EU to seek a negotiation, not the withdrawing member state. However, while this may be the case in principle, such an approach would likely damage the UK’s chances of striking a preferential trade agreement with the EU after exit – since its first act as an ‘independent’ nation would have been to have reneged on its EU treaty commitments. It would also mean there is no transition period, so EU legislation along with the UK’s free trade agreements via the EU lapse immediately. Since some EU law applies in the UK directly, the UK would need to legislate to replace it.

Which takes me back to my previous point, that it seems better not to serve Article 50, and request negotiations instead, without placing ourselves in the cul-de-sac that A50 entails.

[blandy]

1 minute ago, peterms said:

it seems better not to serve Article 50, and request negotiations instead

The press has been reporting that the yurpeens have unanimously and collectively refused to talk to "us" about exiting until we invoke the article 50. And I think I've already kind of said (in response to AWOL maybe?) that holding off doing A50 for too long would bring about a legitimacy problem for May

[HanoiVillan]

6 minutes ago, blandy said:

The press has been reporting that the yurpeens have unanimously and collectively refused to talk to "us" about exiting until we invoke the article 50. And I think I've already kind of said (in response to AWOL maybe?) that holding off doing A50 for too long would bring about a legitimacy problem for May

Launching it too quickly provides practical problems as well though. If she invokes it in Feb/March as planned, she loses 6 months of the two years as nobody in France or Germany will give a shit about negotiating until after their elections. 

There's no easy path for her to get this right. Don't feel sorry for her though - say together, 'it's her job and she wanted it'. 

[peterms]

1 minute ago, blandy said:

The press has been reporting that the yurpeens have unanimously and collectively refused to talk to "us" about exiting until we invoke the article 50. And I think I've already kind of said (in response to AWOL maybe?) that holding off doing A50 for too long would bring about a legitimacy problem for May

The EU position cannot hold, if we just sit tight.  The consequence of the uncertainty and destabilisation would be worse for them than agreeing to hold talks.

They don't want to be seen to make leaving easy, because that would be unhelpful for them.  But they can't force us to serve A50.  Doing so creates a situation where we are highly likely to be well and truly done over; so don't do it.  If we don't, then the choice for them will be to hold the hard line at the cost of creating further instability, or else changing tack.  We should insist on constructive negotiations, not set ourselves up for the punitive action that people like Schauble want to see.

There's no urgency for us, and in fact acting quickly will greatly harm our interests.  If May seeks to harm the national interest by placating her own party, that should be made explicitly clear, and to do that, an alternative to early notice must be articulated.

[OutByEaster?]

So yesterday the Chancellor told us everything was rosy and today pretty much everyone else is telling us we're up the worlds most famous small river without means of steering or propulsion. Who's lying?

 

[TrentVilla]

1 minute ago, OutByEaster? said:

So yesterday the Chancellor told us everything was rosy and today pretty much everyone else is telling us we're up the worlds most famous small river without means of steering or propulsion. Who's lying?

 

My money is on the people selling paddles.

[blandy]

51 minutes ago, peterms said:

they can't force us to serve A50.  Doing so creates a situation where we are highly likely to be well and truly done over; so don't do it.  If we don't, then the choice for them will be to hold the hard line at the cost of creating further instability, or else changing tack.  We should insist on constructive negotiations, not set ourselves up for the punitive action that people like Schauble want to see.

All true. Another angle, or angles are that we want to leave the EU and they don't really want us to leave. Ergo, not triggering it gives them what they want, while denying us what we want.

And people like David Davis, the Clown and the disgraced pillock actually want to rush headlong into A50. Half the gov't, perhaps more wants soft leaving - staying in the single market and half wants hard leave. They don't have a consensus view.

I don't think May will do A50 in March, I think it'll be before the end of June instead, but we'll see,

[blandy]

2 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

Who's lying?

Everyone?

[villakram]

13 hours ago, Awol said:

I'd argue that political forces are rising across Europe right now that in large part are a reaction against the consolidation of power at the continental level.

For some reason mainland European power structures reflexively trend away from democracy and towards authoritarianism. It's is a cycle we've been in for over 2000 years & I don't see it ending anytime soon. 

If you know anything about IR theory Britain is historically the classic offshore balancer, forming alliances and coalitions among European states to prevent any one power dominating the geographical space.

Inevitably that's created a reputation for the UK as being a bit cynical in our choice of partners at any given time, but for the record it's 'perfidious Albion' not pernicious Britannia..

It's only when we've failed to successfully achieve that balancing function (which could also be read as saving Europeans from themselves) that the UK homeland has been seriously threatened - the Spanish Armada, the early Napoleonic period and 1939-40 during WW2. 

It's possible that Brexit may be the catalyst for the latest round of anti-authoritarianism on the continent, but balancing by default rather than by design. 

Im hopeful that in the future we can take a fundamentally good idea (European wide cooperation) and make it work in a democratically accountable way.

bah... thanks, it didn't sound right when I wrote it!

A Brit talking about Democracy... something about a monarchy or some such thing comes to mind, and all this in a state with some of the most invasive laws known to mankind, e.g., the lovely Investigatory Powers Bill.

[Awol]

24 minutes ago, villakram said:

A Brit talking about Democracy... 

Duh. Everybody knows democracy was invented by a Pilgrim who rode a Turkey while drinking Mayflower tea in Boston. And freedom, America invented that too.

Thanks Giving... who says Americans don't have a sense of irony?  It's like the Nazis having a 'Jew Day'.

What a country.

[villakram]

1 hour ago, Awol said:

Duh. Everybody knows democracy was invented by a Pilgrim who rode a Turkey while drinking Mayflower tea in Boston. And freedom, America invented that too.

Thanks Giving... who says Americans don't have a sense of irony?  It's like the Nazis having a 'Jew Day'.

What a country.

I'm sure that there's some watchlist that you've just been added too... in addition to all the others 

[Enda]

6 hours ago, Awol said:

Duh. Everybody knows democracy was invented by a Pilgrim who rode a Turkey while drinking Mayflower tea in Boston. And freedom, America invented that too.

Nah it was invented in Dublin in 1919 when the rights of small nations to self-determination was being defended throughout Europe, and perfected in Belfast in 1975 when voting rights were based on how many houses you owned.

[Awol]

2 hours ago, Enda said:

Nah it was invented in Dublin in 1919 when the rights of small nations to self-determination was being defended throughout Europe...

Pity Dublin took a holiday from those moral principles just 20 years later.

[Enda]

8 hours ago, Awol said:

Pity Dublin took a holiday from those moral principles just 20 years later.

The supreme irony of sneering about a nation not involving itself in European affairs must be lost on you.

If you'd like to talk to me about Ireland's military policy in the 20th Century, I'm very happy to go down that route. Mods mightn't be, though.

[Awol]

31 minutes ago, Enda said:

 If you'd like to talk to me about Ireland's military policy in the 20th Century, I'm very happy to go down that route. Mods mightn't be, though.

Knock yerself out, there's always   PM's if it's that blue. 

[Awol]

Oh look, this is surprising: 

Migrant crisis: Turkey threatens EU with new surge

Quote

 

Turkey's President Erdogan has warned that he will let hundreds of thousands of migrants travel on to Europe if pushed by the EU. 

He was reacting to a non-binding vote by the EU Parliament to freeze talks for EU membership for Turkey...

...President Erdogan accused the EU of breaking it's promises.. 

 

I think perhaps we are overdoing the strategic genius of the EU when it comes to our own Brexit talks.

This was so obviously going to happen it was discussed at length on this thread days ago, before he even started making his threats. 

Idiots.

Edited November 25, 2016 by Awol

[StefanAVFC]

Had a moment today that restored my faith in people a bit.

My cousin and her husband are traditional working class, don't think I'd be offending them by saying so. In the lead up to the vote, they were staunchly leave voters; we had discussions about it but we left it when we got to our reasoning because we all get on and it never got heated.

Today, he asked me and my dad, 'so what's actually going on with all this court stuff then?'

We explained that Brexit wasn't being stopped, or even attempted to be stopped. That the judges had ruled it had to go to parliament, as they are our elected representatives and they need to make the decision; not just one woman without a mandate.

He asked questions, and was like 'yeah that's fair enough' by the end of it.

If every conversation could be pleasant and objective from a left and right wing voter, we'd get a hell of a lot more done.

[Rodders]

but without selling nearly half as many papers or keeping the general public from dividing themselves furiously, and where would the sense be in that?

[meregreen]

Quit ironic really. Brexit supporters complaining that too many of our decisions made on Europe don't come before our Parliament.Same people now complaining that most important decision this country has faced in half a century.......is coming before our Parliament.Crazy.