The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[TrentVilla]

I have with some regularity commented in this thread about the wider instability of the EU and about the importance of looming European elections and votes. 

Most recently I posted in some length about a hugely important referendum (important for the Italian PM and EU project) well last night he lost. Not only did he lose but he carried through with his threat to resign should he do so.

So now Italy, the third largest economy in the single currency, already with a looming banking and financial crisis potentially heading into a general election. At a time when popularist and some right wing anti immigration parties are gathering strength, should an election happen the Five Star movement would certainly have the momentum.

As I've said previously, we might be the only ones that have voted out but that decision is far more representative of views across the continent than the EU have been willing to admit. Therefore any negotiations on our exit will be impacted by that.

Some will and have previously argued that the EU will be tough on us as a warning to others countries who may have the same idea. I would argue such a stance may only hasten the speed with which others seek a vote and exit.

Seemig those within Brussels are starting to wake up to the existential threat they are facing as they warn against holding referendum in a flagrant disregard for domestic political platforms and their voters.

With general elections already looming in France and Holland those negotiating our exit would do well to remember the house of cards the EU currently resembles, each for very different reasons. 

[NurembergVillan]

It'll be interesting to see the real support for far right politics in mainland Europe. It didn't prevail in Austria, and I wonder if the notion of support on the continent has been exaggerated by the British media - "look at those racists in Europe! We're not racists, we're just hard-working tax payers who want our country back."

I know there's been a ground swell of support in the western world, but is it really big enough to form a government? I see the likes of Le Pen as being too overt to succeed, as opposed to the wolf in sheep's clothing method adopted by Trump and Farage. Although Trump lost the popular vote and Farage has never been elected to the HoP.

[markavfc40]

Italy actually voted to maintain the status quo didn’t they as Renzi wanted to reform the constitution.

The Austrian one is interesting and them rejecting the far right candidate in the Presidential election. Hopefully that is an indicator that Europe isn’t moving to the far right.

[Awol]

16 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

Italy actually voted to maintain the status quo didn’t they as Renzi wanted to reform the constitution.

The Austrian one is interesting and them rejecting the far right candidate in the Presidential election. Hopefully that is an indicator that Europe isn’t moving to the far right.

On Austria, it's certainly good that the blatant neo-Nazi only won 46% of the vote (46%!!), but it's a position without any real power anyway.

His party however is leading the polls in voting intentions for the next Parliamentary elections. He may still end up winning, just not the position people were predicting. 

It appears this trend is almost entirely due to the migration crisis, not because of the EU itself or the Euro. 

[TrentVilla]

22 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

Italy actually voted to maintain the status quo didn’t they as Renzi wanted to reform the constitution.

That is correct but only half the picture. Their referendum was about their internal constitution and reform, it's not what they voted on that is important though it's the consequence. 

Renzi said he would quit if he lost which he has done. It remains to be seen if that results in a GE, if it does then it is highly likely that the currently popular Five Star Movement would win. 

If that were to happen then a EU referendum becomes a distinct possibility.

 

[tonyh29]

27 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

Italy actually voted to maintain the status quo didn’t they as Renzi wanted to reform the constitution.

not so sure with that one as the no vote was spearheaded by the populist Five Star Movement,  campaigning on a basis of a struggling economy and problems caused by tens of thousands of migrants arriving from Africa

It's not a nail in the EU coffin , but the undertaker is probably getting his tape measure ready

 

French Next ? ...... vive la revolution

 

[Genie]

4 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

French Next ? ...... vive la revolution

I'm really interested to see what they do as a nation.

[TrentVilla]

13 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

not so sure with that one as the no vote was spearheaded by the populist Five Star Movement,  campaigning on a basis of a struggling economy and problems caused by tens of thousands of migrants arriving from Africa

It's not a nail in the EU coffin , but the undertaker is probably getting his tape measure ready

 

French Next ? ...... vive la revolution

 

Quite. Closely followed by the Dutch.

Smoke and a pancake?

[TrentVilla]

1 hour ago, NurembergVillan said:

It'll be interesting to see the real support for far right politics in mainland Europe. It didn't prevail in Austria, and I wonder if the notion of support on the continent has been exaggerated by the British media - "look at those racists in Europe! We're not racists, we're just hard-working tax payers who want our country back."

I know there's been a ground swell of support in the western world, but is it really big enough to form a government? I see the likes of Le Pen as being too overt to succeed, as opposed to the wolf in sheep's clothing method adopted by Trump and Farage. Although Trump lost the popular vote and Farage has never been elected to the HoP.

I think it's a mistake to characterise it as being just  about populist support for the far right, I think that is wide of the mark.

I also think it's a mistake to label Brexit as being racist, as you point out Farage has never been elected and that says something. Brexit was about racism for some certainly but it's horrifically over simplistic to put it down to that entirely.

Neither should the rejection of conventional political parties in mainland Europe be characterised as being a rise in support for the Far Right. It is so so so much more than that and less than that all at the same time.

I think there is a very real possibility that the EU will be rejected by a number of domestic electorates, that doesn't mean that they support the Far Right.

[TrentVilla]

15 minutes ago, Genie said:

I'm really interested to see what they do as a nation.

*insert French stereotype here*

[Genie]

5 minutes ago, TrentVilla said:

 It is so so so much more than that and less than that all at the same time.

I agree, and disagree at the same time.

[StefanAVFC]

The French and Dutch far right parties being genuine contenders is being played down here very lightheartedly.

I'm terrified, especially of the Dutch far-right. They're **** nasty.

[TrentVilla]

2 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

The French and Dutch far right parties being genuine contenders is being played down here very lightheartedly.

I'm terrified, especially of the Dutch far-right. They're **** nasty.

I'm not sure anyone is 'lightheartedly' playing them down. More a case of staying within the framework of the thread, these movements position relative to he EU is relevant their domestic policies on other things, abhorant as they may be is not.

[HanoiVillan]

1 hour ago, TrentVilla said:

It remains to be seen if that results in a GE, if it does then it is highly likely that the currently popular Five Star Movement would win. 

Is this actually true? 

Date	Polling firm	M5S	PD	FI	LN	SI	FdI	AP	Others	Lead
25–27 Nov	EMG	29.9	31.0	10.5	13.1	3.5	4.2	3.5	3.8	1.1
17–19 Nov	EMG	30.6	30.8	10.5	13.1	3.1	4.2	3.4	4.3	0.2
17 Nov	Lorien	31.8	31.5	11.0	12.0	3.5	3.7	3.5	2.2	0.3
14–16 Nov	SWG	27.8	32.0	11.8	12.9	3.4	4.0	3.2	4.9	4.2
10-12 Nov	EMG	31.2	30.6	11.4	12.0	3.4	4.1	3.6	3.7	0.6
9–10 Nov	SWG	27.3	32.8	12.4	12.6	3.2	3.6	3.3	4.8	5.5
7 Nov	Lorien	31.8	31.6	11.8	12.3	3.5	3.8	3.2	2.1	0.2
4-6 Nov	EMG	31.6	30.8	11.1	11.8	3.6	4.0	3.5	3.6	0.8
2–3 Nov	SWG	27.2	32.7	11.6	12.2	3.2	3.9	3.2	6.0	5.5
2 Nov	Ixè	29.1	33.4	9.5	13.4	3.7	3.2	2.4	5.3	4.3

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Italian_general_election

It looks very close in general election polling with the PD slightly ahead, and it also sounds as if Forza Italia might 'tactically' support PD. Yes, yes, I know, polling etc but I think 'highly likely' might be too strong. 

[TrentVilla]

12 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Is this actually true? 

Date	Polling firm	M5S	PD	FI	LN	SI	FdI	AP	Others	Lead
25–27 Nov	EMG	29.9	31.0	10.5	13.1	3.5	4.2	3.5	3.8	1.1
17–19 Nov	EMG	30.6	30.8	10.5	13.1	3.1	4.2	3.4	4.3	0.2
17 Nov	Lorien	31.8	31.5	11.0	12.0	3.5	3.7	3.5	2.2	0.3
14–16 Nov	SWG	27.8	32.0	11.8	12.9	3.4	4.0	3.2	4.9	4.2
10-12 Nov	EMG	31.2	30.6	11.4	12.0	3.4	4.1	3.6	3.7	0.6
9–10 Nov	SWG	27.3	32.8	12.4	12.6	3.2	3.6	3.3	4.8	5.5
7 Nov	Lorien	31.8	31.6	11.8	12.3	3.5	3.8	3.2	2.1	0.2
4-6 Nov	EMG	31.6	30.8	11.1	11.8	3.6	4.0	3.5	3.6	0.8
2–3 Nov	SWG	27.2	32.7	11.6	12.2	3.2	3.9	3.2	6.0	5.5
2 Nov	Ixè	29.1	33.4	9.5	13.4	3.7	3.2	2.4	5.3	4.3

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Italian_general_election

It looks very close in general election polling with the PD slightly ahead, and it also sounds as if Forza Italia might 'tactically' support PD. Yes, yes, I know, polling etc but I think 'highly likely' might be too strong. 

Fair point, bad use of language there from me... but polls.... pah.... and all that

Just to add they shouldn't be seen as far right, they are popularist and draw their voters from the disenfranchised and dissolutioned on right and left. Sounds familiar doesn't it.

[Genie]

37 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Is this actually true? 

Date	Polling firm	M5S	PD	FI	LN	SI	FdI	AP	Others	Lead
25–27 Nov	EMG	29.9	31.0	10.5	13.1	3.5	4.2	3.5	3.8	1.1
17–19 Nov	EMG	30.6	30.8	10.5	13.1	3.1	4.2	3.4	4.3	0.2
17 Nov	Lorien	31.8	31.5	11.0	12.0	3.5	3.7	3.5	2.2	0.3
14–16 Nov	SWG	27.8	32.0	11.8	12.9	3.4	4.0	3.2	4.9	4.2
10-12 Nov	EMG	31.2	30.6	11.4	12.0	3.4	4.1	3.6	3.7	0.6
9–10 Nov	SWG	27.3	32.8	12.4	12.6	3.2	3.6	3.3	4.8	5.5
7 Nov	Lorien	31.8	31.6	11.8	12.3	3.5	3.8	3.2	2.1	0.2
4-6 Nov	EMG	31.6	30.8	11.1	11.8	3.6	4.0	3.5	3.6	0.8
2–3 Nov	SWG	27.2	32.7	11.6	12.2	3.2	3.9	3.2	6.0	5.5
2 Nov	Ixè	29.1	33.4	9.5	13.4	3.7	3.2	2.4	5.3	4.3

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Italian_general_election

It looks very close in general election polling with the PD slightly ahead, and it also sounds as if Forza Italia might 'tactically' support PD. Yes, yes, I know, polling etc but I think 'highly likely' might be too strong. 

If we've only learned 1 thing during 2016 elections its that when it comes to voting for the seemingly bonkers team people tend to lie or keep quiet about it until they get to the voting booths.

If it is that close, my money would be on a 5 star win.

[Awol]

It's interesting that the club med extremists (Syriza, Podemos, 5 star movement, Front Nationale) all sit on the far left, where central, eastern and north Europe tend to like their extremists on the far right.

Of the contenders next year I think Geert Widers is probably number one in terms of potential to win, then 5 Star if Italy has an election. The least likely is Le Pen and the NF - assuming no more Bataclan type incidents between now and the election - because all the others will vote tactically against her in the second round. 

I also think Merkel will go in 2017 but Germany won't elect an extremist party. 

[StefanAVFC]

I'd much rather Le Pen win than Wilders.

He's **** vile.

And what, FN, far left? 

Edited December 5, 2016 by StefanAVFC

[Awol]

17 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

I'd much rather Le Pen win than Wilders.

He's **** vile.

And what, FN, far left? 

Yes the FN are Far Left ideologically. Economic protectionism, state ownership, totally anti free markets. Y'know, left wing. 

[snowychap]

2 hours ago, Awol said:

On Austria, it's certainly good that the blatant neo-Nazi only won 46% of the vote (46%!!), but it's a position without any real power anyway.

His party however is leading the polls in voting intentions for the next Parliamentary elections. He may still end up winning, just not the position people were predicting.

Indeed. It's not a situation to get complacent about.