The banker loving, baby-eating Tory party thread (regenerated)

[Genie]

Lots more press now going against Boris and the Tories. Hopefully they keep the pressure up and don’t lose this momentum now it’s starting to hit home.

The culmination of all the corruption, lying, U-turns, incompetence and sleaze is finally starting to make people stop and think.

[ml1dch]

9 minutes ago, bickster said:

Any poll suggesting that people have shifted from Con to Green is highly suspect esp with no change in LibDems

One could make an argument that the shift is Tories - Labour and Labour - Green.

But yes, it doesn't really ring true. Particularly given it predates Paterson.

[bickster]

Just now, ml1dch said:

One could make an argument that the shift is Tories - Labour and Labour - Green.

But yes, it doesn't really ring true. Particularly given it predates Paterson.

Yeah I thought about that and I'd still expect some shift in LibDem - Green if that were the case

[bobzy]

44 minutes ago, bickster said:

Any poll suggesting that people have shifted from Con to Green is highly suspect esp with no change in LibDems

Maybe.  God knows how the polls work/who they ask etc etc (and, to be honest, I don't care ) - but in my area, I really wouldn't be surprised in a shift from Conservative to Green from a fair number of voters.

[HanoiVillan]

2 minutes ago, bobzy said:

Maybe.  God knows how the polls work/who they ask etc etc (and, to be honest, I don't care ) - but in my area, I really wouldn't be surprised in a shift from Conservative to Green from a fair number of voters.

It wouldn't be particularly surprising at all, as you say. 

(Anyway, there is absolutely no way of telling from this poll how people have switched, it doesn't ask and the numbers are weighted aggregates, not tracking individual people's preferences)

[Wainy316]

Who'd have thunk it.  As soon as the Mail and The Sun report negatively on one of the many Tory scandals, it actually seems to stick.

[Rodders]

1 hour ago, bobzy said:

Maybe.  God knows how the polls work/who they ask etc etc (and, to be honest, I don't care ) - but in my area, I really wouldn't be surprised in a shift from Conservative to Green from a fair number of voters.

As someone with tory parents this is certainly possible. They're definitely going greener living and I'm sure I saw more Green Party paraphernalia last election time.  

Edited November 8, 2021 by Rodders

[Rolta]

3 hours ago, bickster said:

Any poll suggesting that people have shifted from Con to Green is highly suspect esp with no change in LibDems

That's what my mum and step dad both say they did.

It seems to me that someone who's bought into the Tory narrative hook and line won't ever vote Labour, but they are for some mystical reason OK with voting green. It's almost as if they have no clue what they're doing.

[blandy]

3 hours ago, bickster said:

Any poll suggesting that people have shifted from Con to Green is highly suspect esp with no change in LibDems

The shift to Green will be as a consequence of COP26 and all the eco stuff in the news, obviously and pleasingly.

But it's not showing necessarily a shift from Con - Green. It's showing a rise in green and a fall in Tory support and no change in Dems. But it's just a snapshot of a sample of a population. They don't (afaik) ask the same 1000 people over and over again. There's latent and active support for each party in the country - some "none of them" people will currently be energised by Green issues, some Tory people will be put off the baby eaters by the sewage in rivers/sleaze and corruption stuff and will become "none of them". Also, there's the "protest vote" angle - the Greens could be a current home for angry Tories, as strange as it seems -  I mean how many people actually follow the detailed policies of whichever party? a lot of it is just "ha ha he's funny, I like him" or "I don't know who that one is" or "that one was on the telly and she was good"...

and then next week it's different again, in polls.

The baby eaters seem very obsessed with current opinion and don't seem to have any real ethos about them, no principles or convictions - just do what will make us popular tomorrow and see what we can get away with. Shallow as heck. And absolutely useless.

[HanoiVillan]

1 hour ago, blandy said:

But it's not showing necessarily a shift from Con - Green. It's showing a rise in green and a fall in Tory support and no change in Dems. But it's just a snapshot of a sample of a population. They don't (afaik) ask the same 1000 people over and over again.

Correct.

A comparison might be like this:

You have three supermarkets in the town, and you want to know if there's any trends in which is becoming more popular. So you put a device on the door of each every Saturday, and it counts how many people walk through the door. If you did that for a few weekends, you might be able to start saying 'it seems like Morrisons is becoming more popular and Asda is becoming less popular', but what it absolutely will not do is tell you about the changing preferences of *individual shoppers*. To find that out, you would need a different type of poll - a 'panel survey' - which as @blandy says would interview the same people about whatever issue over and over again.

It is common that people look at polls, and see party A has gone down by X% and party B has gone up by ≈X% and think that means it's the same voters or same type of voters changing preference. It isn't, it's just a different snapshot and a statistical quirk.

[chrisp65]

Hiding from a debate on standards, the slob can’t even be arsed to wear a mask when visiting a hospital.

Don’t call them scum though, they think that’s mean.

 

 

[HanoiVillan]

I didn't mean to notice his prominent nip-on there, but . . .

[HanoiVillan]

Tory MP faces bankruptcy over unpaid taxes and may have to step down

'A Conservative MP is facing bankruptcy proceedings over unpaid taxes that could result in him having to step down.

In a fresh blow for Boris Johnson’s embattled party, court records show a petition for bankruptcy has been filed by HMRC against Adam Afriyie, who has represented Windsor since 2005. Afriyie is described as a “litigant in person”, suggesting he intends to represent himself.

Under parliamentary rules, sitting MPs who are declared bankrupt have to step aside.'

more on link: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/08/tory-mp-faces-bankruptcy-over-unpaid-taxes-and-may-have-to-step-down-adam-afriyie

I'd completely forgotten about this guy, but now I see his name I vaguely remember when he was supposed to be the hot young thing and the next leader after Cameron, 'the Tory Obama' they were trying to sell him as. Apparently he barely bothers attending Parliament nowadays.

It would possibly be a slightly more interesting by-election than Old Bexley & Sidcup or Shropshire North; massive Tory majorities in recent times, but a similar proportion of Remain:Leave voters as Chesham & Amersham so a Lib Dem could maybe run a real campaign anyway.

[chrisp65]

Surely there’s enough of a majority for them to simply retrospectively change the law on MP’s paying tax?

These are good people, held back by the system inherited from Labour.

[Genie]

13 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

It is common that people look at polls, and see party A has gone down by X% and party B has gone up by ≈X% and think that means it's the same voters or same type of voters changing preference. It isn't, it's just a different snapshot and a statistical quirk.

It could be. 

[Mozzavfc]

11 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Surely there’s enough of a majority for them to simply retrospectively change the law on MP’s paying tax?

These are good people, held back by the system inherited from Labour.

I'm sure some kindhearted Tory donor will be available to pay his outstanding tax bill, and then mysterious be awarded a government contract or 2

[StefanAVFC]

Former attorney general Geoffrey Cox has second job that saw him vote remotely from the Caribbean  | Daily Mail Online

Quote

Sir Geoffrey yesterday revealed he has earned more than £1million from outside legal work over the past year on top of his £82,000 salary as a backbencher.

A Whitehall insider said: ‘While he should have been in the UK working for his constituents he’s been over in the British Virgin Islands doing his second job working as a barrister and advising those accused of trousering cash for their mates.’

Oink oink

[HanoiVillan]

1 hour ago, Genie said:

It could be. 

Metaphysically I suppose it could be [the same demographic, not the same voters], but you shouldn't think about it like that, because a] it's exceedingly unlikely and b] this type of poll does not give you this information, so by focusing on this very unlikely possibility you can't know, you are just training your brain to misinterpret polls. 

EDIT:

To explain why this type of change (just one type of voter changing their minds, everyone else not) is so unlikely, all you need to do is consider how voters *actually* move where we have data for that. The answer is different voters are moving all over the place:

Edited November 9, 2021 by HanoiVillan

[Genie]

47 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Metaphysically I suppose it could be [the same demographic, not the same voters], but you shouldn't think about it like that, because a] it's exceedingly unlikely and b] this type of poll does not give you this information, so by focusing on this very unlikely possibility you can't know, you are just training your brain to misinterpret polls. 

EDIT:

To explain why this type of change (just one type of voter changing their minds, everyone else not) is so unlikely, all you need to do is consider how voters *actually* move where we have data for that. The answer is different voters are moving all over the place:

The longer between the data points the less likely it is a group of voters have made simple shift from one party to another. There will be many reasons that will have different impacts on different people.

The discussion here was around the yougov surveys which happen every few days. In those I think it’s quite probable that if 1 party goes down and another goes up by a similar margin it’s the same group moving across for a specific reason.

Over several years like the graphics you shared then there’s a plethora () of scenarios to take into account making it less likely it’s the same people jumping from 1 party to another.

[HanoiVillan]

36 minutes ago, Genie said:

The longer between the data points the less likely it is a group of voters have made simple shift from one party to another. There will be many reasons that will have different impacts on different people.

The discussion here was around the yougov surveys which happen every few days. In those I think it’s quite probable that if 1 party goes down and another goes up by a similar margin it’s the same group moving across for a specific reason.

Over several years like the graphics you shared then there’s a plethora () of scenarios to take into account making it less likely it’s the same people jumping from 1 party to another.

There's absolutely no reason to think that, and the evidence of the poll linked above (which was Ipsos, not YouGov) does not and cannot support it.