HanoiVillan Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Its only a preliminary guess but I think labour will probably do very well in London and worse than expected outside in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted February 23, 2018 Moderator Share Posted February 23, 2018 Liverpool Labour exposed in Private Eye again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted February 25, 2018 Moderator Share Posted February 25, 2018 Oh dear, Frank Field MP for Birkenhead has written an article for the S** So not only is he a Brexit Knob, he's just broken the cardinal rule of Merseyside. Could get ugly for him 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 14 hours ago, bickster said: Oh dear, Frank Field MP for Birkenhead has written an article for the S** So not only is he a Brexit Knob, he's just broken the cardinal rule of Merseyside. Could get ugly for him I wish Frank Field and Kate Hoey would join another party. They're really bad for Labour. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Kate Hoey makes Andrea Leadsom look intelligent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted February 26, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted February 26, 2018 (edited) Edit - silly. Edited February 26, 2018 by Chindie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 2 hours ago, darrenm said: I wish Frank Field and Kate Hoey would join another party. They're really bad for Labour. I hear UKIP has plenty of vacancies and would probably suit them quite well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 4 hours ago, darrenm said: I wish Frank Field and Kate Hoey would join another party. They're really bad for Labour. I'm sure everyone was saying that about Corbyn not so long ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted February 26, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 hour ago, tonyh29 said: I'm sure everyone was saying that about Corbyn not so long ago Not everyone. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Is this talk of Customs Unions etc just the same as Farage talking about funding the NHS? I.e. it’s a waste of air as he’s not in power and can’t do anything to back it up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 hour ago, Genie said: Is this talk of Customs Unions etc just the same as Farage talking about funding the NHS? I.e. it’s a waste of air as he’s not in power and can’t do anything to back it up? Well, people in this thread have been demanding they take a position for ages, so I guess it shouldn't be a waste of air for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said: Well, people in this thread have been demanding they take a position for ages, so I guess it shouldn't be a waste of air for them. The problem is, the more easily led amongst the population think that it’s a promise, vote in Labour and get a Customs deal and everyone keeps their jobs. Awesome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villakram Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 13 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: Well, people in this thread have been demanding they take a position for ages, so I guess it shouldn't be a waste of air for them. It keeps May and her band of merry folk restricted inside that box of their own construction. That box not her box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted February 26, 2018 Moderator Share Posted February 26, 2018 3 hours ago, Genie said: Is this talk of Customs Unions etc just the same as Farage talking about funding the NHS? I.e. it’s a waste of air as he’s not in power and can’t do anything to back it up? That depends how the votes stack up. Interesting article on Huffpost about the maths of the equation. Quote Jeremy Corbyn has announced Labour wants the UK to be part of a “comprehensive” customs union with the EU after Brexit. That position is a marked difference to the Government’s view, repeated by the Prime Minister’s Official Spokesman this morning: “The Government will not be joining a customs union. We want to have the freedom to sign our own trade deals and to reach out into the world.” Yet with Theresa May only having a Commons majority thanks to the support of the DUP, it would not take many rebel Tories backing Labour to force the Government to keep the UK in a customs union. Here’s how Corbyn’s speech may have set off a chain of events which could see May out of office, and Labour in Government. KEY FIGURES First up, we need to understand the maths involved. Thanks to the support of the DUP, the Tories have 326 MPs who it can instruct to march through the voting lobbies in support of its policies. The opposition benches have 313 MPs. In order to win a vote, the Government needs to get the support of 320 MPs. However, seven Labour MPs backed Brexit in the referendum, and so would be minded to support the Tories’ stance: Ronnie Campbell Frank Field Kelvin Hopkins John Mann Dennis Skinner Graham Stringer Kate Hoey We can take one of those off straight away as Labour’s John Mann today said he welcomed Corbyn’s speech, so there are now effectively six Labour Brexiteers. That means there are 307 MPs on the opposition benches who would support keeping the UK in a customs union. Labour therefore needs to tempt 13 from the Government side to back its plan. WHO COULD DEFECT? Amendments tabled to the Trade Bill to keep the UK in a post-Brexit customs union have 11 Conservative signatories at present: Anna Soubry Ken Clarke Dominic Grieve Antoinette Sandbach Nicky Morgan Sarah Wollaston Jonathan Djanogly Stephen Hammond Heidi Allen Robert Neill Jeremy Lefroy That leaves the pro-customs union side on 318. That list doesn’t include pro-EU MPs such as Chelmsford’s Vicky Ford and East Renfrewshire’s Paul Masterton. If they joined the 11 already signed up, it would give the pro-customs union side a majority, and lead to a Government defeat. HERE’S THE TRICKY BIT… If it looked like a Government defeat was on the cards, would those Labour Brexiteers still vote with the Tories? Left-wing veteran Dennis Skinner would no doubt have a lot to answer to if his vote was the one which spared the Tories’ blushes. The flipside to that is how many Tories who threaten to rebel would actually go through with voting against their party on such a key issue? Ken Clarke, Anna Soubry and Nicky Morgan may well have the guts to defy party whips, but some of the newer MPs – Vicky Ford, Paul Masterton – may not. DOES DEFEAT MEAN AN EARLY ELECTION? Not necessarily. The Fixed Term Parliaments act means that Government being defeated on legislation – even on such a vital piece as this – will not trigger a general election. However, an early election could be called if a vote of no confidence in the Government is passed, or if two-thirds of MPs back dissolving parliament and going to the country. Theresa May could decide that defeating the customs union amendment is so vital to her Brexit negotiations, she frames it as a virtual no confidence vote. The message to Tory MPs would be: “Defeat me on this, and I’ll have to call an early General Election – which Labour might win.” Would Brexiteers MPs support the calling of an election, fearing the UK’s entire negotiating strategy had been undermined by Parliament? Potentially, but the election would have to truly be a snap vote in order to get back to talks in Brussels before the Article 50 process runs out. Would pro-EU Tory MPs really risk putting Corbyn in Downing Street? Some would take that gamble in order to get the deal they want on Brexit. It may be that making it a do-or-die vote is the best way for May to survive. THE ALTERNATIVE…Theresa May might decide pushing it to a vote is all too risky. With the margins of error so close, it might be simpler to seek a compromise with the rebels. It could be the Government puts forward its own amendment promising to keep customs union membership on the table if a certain set of conditions can be met. Yet while this action might appease the pro-EU wing of her party, it will infuriate the Brexiteers. Last week, 62 Tory MPs wrote to May calling for her to take a harder line with the EU in the negotiations. Promising to look again at customs union membership would only rile them up further. Just 48 Tory MPs need to call for a leadership contest for May to find herself out of office. The resulting leadership vote could lead to a Brexit hardliner, such as Jacob Rees-Mogg, take over as Prime Minister. If that happens, there could be further splits as pro-EU MPs such as Anna Soubry walk out of the party, depriving the Government of its majority and triggering another election. Which could lead to... Prime Minister Corbyn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 13 minutes ago, bickster said: That depends how the votes stack up. Interesting article on Huffpost about the maths of the equation. Who'da thunk it eh? Anna Soubry kingmaker. Thing is she's painted herself into a corner here. She hates Corbyn. Constantly attacking him. Yet she'll make him PM. Her only other option is to remove her name from the amendment, which will make her look very silly indeed and make her last 12 months of campaigning against brexit count for nothing. The NI border was always going to be the thing that stopped any idea of a hard brexit in its tracks. And the ERG Tories won't take kindly to that at all. The point at which a hard brexit was always going to be impossible was when Tories were denied a majority in the election. Once May was left relying on the DUP, the border became very difficult. For May, calling the election at that time will be remembered as one of the most stupid things any PM has ever done. Anyway, the fantastically ironic May elections will put pressure on her because Tories will likely lose lots of London councils, then she's pushed the customs union vote until after those. Lose badly in both, which seems very likely, and all hell breaks loose. So June will see the end of May. It's preordained. All in my opinion of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted February 26, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted February 26, 2018 (edited) Everyone put your house on May still being in No.10 in July quick. Edited February 26, 2018 by Chindie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 24 minutes ago, Chindie said: Everyone put your house on May still being in No.10 in July quick. One day I'm gonna quote everything I said on here and it'll look like the return of John Titor :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 44 minutes ago, darrenm said: Who'da thunk it eh? Anna Soubry kingmaker. Thing is she's painted herself into a corner here. She hates Corbyn. Constantly attacking him. Yet she'll make him PM. You appear to be making a couple of giant leaps there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 7 hours ago, snowychap said: You appear to be making a couple of giant leaps there. Yawn "All in my opinion of course" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, darrenm said: Yawn "All in my opinion of course" Yes, I know it's 'your opinion'. You don't seem to acknowledge or accept that for what you have opined to come to fruition requires a few leaps because you present it as the necessary result. That 'your opinion' also only ever seems to represent what your politics desire and demand means that someone reading what you have posted (especially as there appears a huge reluctance to acknowledge that there are any - let alone many - other possibilities) may rather take it as the pontification of the faithful. It may come to pass as you've opined but it is merely one branch of the tree. Edit: I do have a problem with this 'Soubry as kingmaker' claim. She may be the most vocal of the people who are objecting to the government's position but I don't see her a in any way in control of the voting intentions of the 12 or so who rebelled against the government in the previous vote. Do you really think she is directing the likes of Grieve or Ken Clarke as to how to vote? Edited February 27, 2018 by snowychap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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