Speculation Summer Speculation 2015

[villa4europe]

SSN earlier were reporting Newcastle are selling him for the right price to fund a move for two other strikers

"Right price" sounds expensive

[jacketspuds]

Helenius isn't coming back.

Probably not but he helps my argument that our strikers, other than Benteke, are dogshit.

[dAVe80]

Will probably end up in Turkey or Saudi. 

 

Edit: Cisse that is. 

Edited June 23, 2015 by dAVe80

[VillaChris]

SSN earlier were reporting Newcastle are selling him for the right price to fund a move for two other strikers

"Right price" sounds expensive

 

He has dodgy knees and 1 year left on his deal so other two strikers are probably re-signing Shola Ameobi and Lovenkrands.

[VillanousOne]

Potted Chinos at Spuds saying he wants to keep Andros.

 

quite relieved that Huddlestoned and Townshed aren't coming to be honest, even if they aren't at all bad players.

[villa4europe]

I take it that's a brilliant auto correct?!

[daz316]

Imagine it was your job to slap price tags on players !

"Oi you !..yeah YOU !, Mr £7.5 mill , get your arse over here. Now turn around..."

This has not got the recognition it deserved! Absolute quality

[StanBalaban]

I take it that's a brilliant auto correct?!

 

 

Potted Chinos at Spuds saying he wants to keep Andros.

 

quite relieved that Huddlestoned and Townshed aren't coming to be honest, even if they aren't at all bad players.

[dounavilla]

I take it that's a brilliant auto correct?!

Potted Chinos at Spuds saying he wants to keep Andros.

quite relieved that Huddlestoned and Townshed aren't coming to be honest, even if they aren't at all bad players.

Superb ! Bravo

[StanBalaban]

 

Imagine it was your job to slap price tags on players !

"Oi you !..yeah YOU !, Mr £7.5 mill , get your arse over here. Now turn around..."

This has not got the recognition it deserved! Absolute quality

 

[Kingman]

Demba ba linked with Sandwell Town

[tomh621]

Instead of sending Gil out on loan why not use him as part of the first team squad?

 

And as for replacing Guzan - we have more urgent positions to fill with quality players before we should even consider a new keeper.

Id like to see him in the squad too, I was just responding to someone suggesting we sell him if he's not being used.

 

I wanted to answer this question statistically, and after a bit of searching I found this blog post, which is the only place I can find comprehensive datasets about Premier League goalkeepers:

 

http://www.sportingintelligence.com/2015/06/11/sommer-pips-neuer-and-buffon-as-best-moneyball-keeper-as-de-gea-intrigue-continues-110601/

 

The guy attempts to statistically analyse all of the goalkeepers who played more than 15 games in Europe's 5 biggest leagues. The results are contained in a spreadsheet you can download if you follow the link. He says:

 

'So who are the best goalkeepers in Europe, objectively speaking?'

 

'An attempt to answer that in this piece of statistical analysis throws up some interesting possibilities, based on a ‘Safe Hands’ rating (SHR) that considers the measurable parts of a goalkeeper’s job.'

 

. . . 

 

'For the position of goalkeeper, however, the irksome task of quantifying individual performances is dramatically eased. A solid 50 per cent of a goalkeeper’s four main responsibilities – making saves, claiming crosses, organising the defence and distribution – are fairly easily quantifiable, and those are the first two: saves and crosses.'

 

'It is probably impossible to objectively assess the defensive organisational skills of a goalkeeper because the whole team, and particularly the back four, are accountable for a team’s defending, whilst any serious attempt at determining whether a distributive throw or a kick has been ‘good’ or not relies to a degree upon the heading and positional prowess of a goalkeeper’s outfield team-mates.'

 

'As far as shot-stopping and cross collection are concerned, however, the issues are fewer and further between. It turns out to be actually quite easy to compare goalkeepers based upon the proportion of saves they make for every shot they face, and upon the proportion of crosses that they successfully catch. The model used here also factors in punches, rating them worse than a catch but better than a failed claim.'

 

In answer to your first demand, about being 'dominant in the air', the following goalkeepers all claimed a higher percentage of crosses and punched less frequently than Guzan:

 

Forster / Courtois / Begovic / De Gea / Foster / Heaton / Adrian / Pantilimon

 

In answer to the request for world class saves, I accept that of course he has made some, though in my view there have been fewer than in previous seasons. 

 

As far as crap defenders go, those don't affect his save percentage or percentage of crosses claimed or whatever. 

 

I'm not saying you have to accept this analysis, and of course you can do anything with statistics, but what I am trying to show is that on none of these metrics does Guzan stand out from his peers. 

 

I mostly agree that defenders dont have an impact on shot to save ratio. In a nutshell a better keeper will save more of the shots that are fired at him. But I dont agree with the percentage of crosses claimed - defenders, as well as other things, can have a significant impact on that. 

Edited June 24, 2015 by tomh621

[lexicon]

There are 8 keepers in the Prem with higher percentages in that area yet we finished 17th last season - I'd say he's definitely good enough for us.

[tommybread]

Of course defenders will have an affect on shot to save ratio. If the defenders are leaving gaps through the middle and allowing space in the box then more shots will come from closer central areas which will be harder to save. If defenders force players wide and to shoot from distance then there is obviously a better chance of saving those shots. 

[P3te]

Shots to save ratios don't take unsavable shots into consideration though

[Junxs]

Also I think you have to take into consideration that better defences will make the opposition chances more difficult ones. For example against Chelsea a team would probably resort to a bit of long distance shooting or tight angle shooting, whereas against the likes of us and other relegation scrappers, the chances created are easier ones from which the attacker is more likely to score as the defence is so shit.

 

Like others have said, Guzan is fine for where we are, until we are ready for a European spot push I think other areas are more in need of improvement.

 

Rather spend 12m on a new left back earing 65k/week than 6m on a LB and 6m on a GK where they are both on 35k/week.

[lexicon]

I remember when Middlesbrough beat Man City 8-1. The keeper that day (Isaksson) conceded 8 goals but none of them were actually his fault. Football is incredibly contextual, which has always made the use of statistics less than reliable. 

[Dodgyknees]

SSN earlier were reporting Newcastle are selling him for the right price to fund a move for two other strikers

"Right price" sounds expensive

He has dodgy knees and 1 year left on his deal so other two strikers are probably re-signing Shola Ameobi and Lovenkrands.

Nope, I'm still here.

[Villan81]

SSN earlier were reporting Newcastle are selling him for the right price to fund a move for two other strikers

"Right price" sounds expensive

Austin & Berahino tho Sandwell towns 30 mill valuation will put them off

as for cisse no way would i want him here prefer the other senagalese striker that sandwells been linked with

Edited June 24, 2015 by Villan81

[BOF]

Re- Cisse.  It seems the Scots value him at £10m.  He's 30 years old.  Now if he wasn't injury prone then maybe at a stretch you could justify it knowing he'll give you a few good years and loads of goals.  But he is injury prone and it'd be a massive risk.  I'm also not entirely convinced by his commitment to the cause.  So no thanks.