Where will we finish ?

[foreveryoung]

Yeah lets see how we play against the Fulhams, newcastles, Stokes, then we can really see if anything truely changed. Im a little worried, yeah we looked great against, Arsenal an Chelsea, but we looked great at times last season, an its early days, teams are still warming up so to speak. Will we be in the relegation zone anytime this season. Dont think at this time I would risk any big money on not being there at all just yet!!!

[VillaChris]

So far not a great deal looks to have changed.

 

Defensively we improved towards the end of last season, we're still making mistakes but looking a little more composed.

Set-pieces - nothing has changed, we still suck at taking them............ i think we managed to start defending them a bit better last season.

Possession - we're not great at keeping the ball, especially against the top teams.

Playing for an entire 90 mins - erm nope

Attacking on the break - excellent as ever

Guzan and Benteke still awesome with Delph approaching that accolade

It looks like Okore could be great, but I haven't seen anything of the other signings so far including pre-season to make me think they will radically change us. Luna looks more consistent than Bennett, but in many ways similar - in that he can attack but not defend, ok maybe he can still defend better than Bennett.

The litmus test will be against teams in the middle of the Prem - whom we lost or drew with last season, if we can actually beat Southampton, Everton, Swansea, Newcastle then i will be convinced we have improved.

 

Well if we start beating most of those teams on a regular basis, then we will be pushing the top 6 seeing as Southampton, Everton,Swansea and Newcastle won't be getting many points off the top 6 teams themselves.

[leviramsey]

[levi @ solitaire | 09:03:32] strength     ./soccerseasonpredict.pl 100000 < ~/leagues/epl/2013pred | tail -n 40
1.6	 enCFC: 27.2	7.9	2.9	70.0	20.1	50.0	89.5
2.4	enTHFC: 25.6	7.9	4.5	65.5	25.8	39.6	84.6
2.5	 enLFC: 25.3	8.1	4.5	64.8	23.9	40.9	84.2
4.0	 enAFC: 21.9	9.6	6.4	57.4	27.5	29.9	75.4
4.9	enMUFC: 20.5	9.1	8.4	65.1	39.2	25.8	70.7
6.9	enMCFC: 16.6	10.5	10.9	49.2	38.4	10.9	60.3
7.9	 enWHU: 15.2	11.2	11.7	44.8	40.0	4.8	56.7
8.8	enAVFC: 15.4	7.8	14.8	58.5	55.6	2.8	53.9
9.6	enHULL: 13.8	10.3	13.9	41.5	44.3	-2.8	51.7
10.4	 enEFC: 11.6	14.2	12.2	38.1	39.6	-1.4	49.0
11.2	enSTOK: 12.5	9.6	15.9	43.1	50.3	-7.2	47.2
12.4	enSWNS: 11.1	10.9	16.0	37.1	48.1	-10.9	44.1
12.5	enNRWC: 11.5	9.4	17.1	47.4	57.3	-9.8	43.9
13.3	enCRDF: 11.3	8.1	18.6	49.3	65.2	-15.8	42.0
14.5	 enFFC: 10.1	8.4	19.5	42.6	61.9	-19.2	38.7
16.5	 enSFC: 7.5	11.1	19.5	29.5	52.2	-22.7	33.5
17.1	 enWBA: 7.8	8.2	22.0	40.4	67.8	-27.5	31.7
17.5	enNUFC: 7.1	9.3	21.7	33.7	64.3	-30.6	30.4
17.9	enCRSP: 6.9	8.2	22.9	36.0	63.7	-27.7	29.0
18.0	enSUND: 6.6	9.3	22.1	31.9	60.9	-29.0	29.0
 enAFC:   1.5   6.3  16.8  44.4  25.1   4.6   0.9   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 
enAVFC:   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   3.5  12.8  16.9  17.3  14.4  11.3   8.4   6.0   4.0   2.5   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0 
 enCFC:  57.6  26.6  12.3   3.0   0.5   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 
enCRDF:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.5   3.1   4.9   7.1   9.5  11.7  13.7  14.3  12.1   8.8   5.9   3.8   2.1   1.0 
enCRSP:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.8   3.4   6.0   9.5  13.3  17.0  20.9  26.5 
 enEFC:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   3.1   7.2  11.5  15.3  16.0  15.2  12.0   8.7   5.4   3.0   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0 
 enFFC:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.2   3.6   5.7   8.4  11.3  14.3  15.7  13.1  10.1   6.9   4.5   2.3 
enHULL:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.4   7.1  12.2  15.8  16.5  14.5  11.4   8.5   5.6   3.4   1.9   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.1   0.0 
 enLFC:  19.2  31.8  32.0  13.0   3.6   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 
enMCFC:   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.4  11.8  34.0  22.5  13.2   7.5   4.1   2.2   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 
enMUFC:   0.5   2.5   7.7  23.6  44.4  13.3   4.8   1.8   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 
enNRWC:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.1   2.6   4.7   7.0   9.6  11.8  13.4  13.7  12.4   9.6   6.2   3.8   2.2   1.2   0.4 
enNUFC:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.5   4.5   7.5  11.4  14.5  17.4  19.6  20.2 
 enSFC:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.4   2.6   4.8   8.1  12.5  16.6  17.7  15.7  12.2   7.3 
enSTOK:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   2.5   5.5   8.3  11.2  13.4  14.1  13.1  11.3   8.6   5.5   3.1   1.7   0.9   0.4   0.1 
enSUND:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.6   3.0   5.8   9.4  13.4  17.7  21.7  26.1 
enSWNS:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   2.1   4.2   7.0   9.9  12.6  14.8  15.0  13.0   9.2   5.7   3.2   1.7   0.8   0.2 
enTHFC:  21.1  32.8  30.6  11.9   3.2   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 
 enWBA:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   2.2   3.8   6.0   9.4  13.1  15.1  16.2  16.4  15.7 
 enWHU:   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.9   5.4  19.5  23.2  18.5  12.7   8.3   5.1   3.2   1.7   0.8   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 

[dont_do_it_doug.]

Has Man City 6th.

Basically bollocks at this point.

[AVTuco]

[levi @ solitaire | 09:03:32] strength     ./soccerseasonpredict.pl 100000 < ~/leagues/Premier League/2013pred | tail -n 401.6	 enCFC: 27.2	7.9	2.9	70.0	20.1	50.0	89.52.4	enTHFC: 25.6	7.9	4.5	65.5	25.8	39.6	84.62.5	 enLFC: 25.3	8.1	4.5	64.8	23.9	40.9	84.24.0	 enAFC: 21.9	9.6	6.4	57.4	27.5	29.9	75.44.9	enMUFC: 20.5	9.1	8.4	65.1	39.2	25.8	70.76.9	enMCFC: 16.6	10.5	10.9	49.2	38.4	10.9	60.37.9	 enWHU: 15.2	11.2	11.7	44.8	40.0	4.8	56.78.8	enAVFC: 15.4	7.8	14.8	58.5	55.6	2.8	53.99.6	enHULL: 13.8	10.3	13.9	41.5	44.3	-2.8	51.710.4	 enEFC: 11.6	14.2	12.2	38.1	39.6	-1.4	49.011.2	enSTOK: 12.5	9.6	15.9	43.1	50.3	-7.2	47.212.4	enSWNS: 11.1	10.9	16.0	37.1	48.1	-10.9	44.112.5	enNRWC: 11.5	9.4	17.1	47.4	57.3	-9.8	43.913.3	enCRDF: 11.3	8.1	18.6	49.3	65.2	-15.8	42.014.5	 enFFC: 10.1	8.4	19.5	42.6	61.9	-19.2	38.716.5	 enSFC: 7.5	11.1	19.5	29.5	52.2	-22.7	33.517.1	 enWBA: 7.8	8.2	22.0	40.4	67.8	-27.5	31.717.5	enNUFC: 7.1	9.3	21.7	33.7	64.3	-30.6	30.417.9	enCRSP: 6.9	8.2	22.9	36.0	63.7	-27.7	29.018.0	enSUND: 6.6	9.3	22.1	31.9	60.9	-29.0	29.0 enAFC:   1.5   6.3  16.8  44.4  25.1   4.6   0.9   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 enAVFC:   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   3.5  12.8  16.9  17.3  14.4  11.3   8.4   6.0   4.0   2.5   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0  enCFC:  57.6  26.6  12.3   3.0   0.5   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 enCRDF:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.5   3.1   4.9   7.1   9.5  11.7  13.7  14.3  12.1   8.8   5.9   3.8   2.1   1.0 enCRSP:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.8   3.4   6.0   9.5  13.3  17.0  20.9  26.5  enEFC:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   3.1   7.2  11.5  15.3  16.0  15.2  12.0   8.7   5.4   3.0   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0  enFFC:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.2   3.6   5.7   8.4  11.3  14.3  15.7  13.1  10.1   6.9   4.5   2.3 enHULL:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.4   7.1  12.2  15.8  16.5  14.5  11.4   8.5   5.6   3.4   1.9   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.1   0.0  enLFC:  19.2  31.8  32.0  13.0   3.6   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 enMCFC:   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.4  11.8  34.0  22.5  13.2   7.5   4.1   2.2   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 enMUFC:   0.5   2.5   7.7  23.6  44.4  13.3   4.8   1.8   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 enNRWC:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.1   2.6   4.7   7.0   9.6  11.8  13.4  13.7  12.4   9.6   6.2   3.8   2.2   1.2   0.4 enNUFC:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.5   4.5   7.5  11.4  14.5  17.4  19.6  20.2  enSFC:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.4   2.6   4.8   8.1  12.5  16.6  17.7  15.7  12.2   7.3 enSTOK:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   2.5   5.5   8.3  11.2  13.4  14.1  13.1  11.3   8.6   5.5   3.1   1.7   0.9   0.4   0.1 enSUND:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.6   3.0   5.8   9.4  13.4  17.7  21.7  26.1 enSWNS:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   2.1   4.2   7.0   9.9  12.6  14.8  15.0  13.0   9.2   5.7   3.2   1.7   0.8   0.2 enTHFC:  21.1  32.8  30.6  11.9   3.2   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  enWBA:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   2.2   3.8   6.0   9.4  13.1  15.1  16.2  16.4  15.7  enWHU:   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.9   5.4  19.5  23.2  18.5  12.7   8.3   5.1   3.2   1.7   0.8   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0

100k now

The problem with tables like this is embedded in ddid's comment above. People tend to solely look at one single point on the distribution, the expected value. The story is in the distributions.

Ofcourse, if you do this many times during the season, changes in expected value are interesting.

Edited August 31, 2013 by AVTuco

[dont_do_it_doug.]

In the third row of numbers from the left we have the lowest of all clubs, 7.8. What does this mean?

[leviramsey]

The order of columns in the average table is

average placing, club, wins, draws, losses, goals for, goals against, difference, points

So I'm not expecting us to be in many draws this season, which is to be expected from a side that scores a lot and concedes a lot (0-0 draws are a much greater percentage of goalless games than 1-1's are relative to 2 goal games which are in turn greater than the percentage of 4-goal games that are 2-2, and the trend of decreasing percentage holds out at least past 5-5).

[abdulaziz1]

Yeah lets see how we play against the Fulhams, newcastles, Stokes, then we can really see if anything truely changed. Im a little worried, yeah we looked great against, Arsenal an Chelsea, but we looked great at times last season, an its early days, teams are still warming up so to speak. Will we be in the relegation zone anytime this season. Dont think at this time I would risk any big money on not being there at all just yet!!!

 

Even when we won against Liverpool last year .. We were bad at the beginning of the game .. until we scored we've begin to attack little bit ..

 

Against Arsenal and Man Utd at VP we were ok ..

 

Other than that we were almost bad .. Ofcourse I'm excluding our game with Chelsea at the end of last season .. Because after February our form was a top 8 form even though we played 6 of Top 7 teams where we lost to all and draw one .. 

 

We've played very well against the teams you stated .. The second half against Newcastle was our change of last season although we lost that .. Because we entered that games with a lot of fears especially when their new army has just arrived ..

 

I'm not saying we're already safe or we cemented ourselves as a top 10 team !

 

But tbh I think we're one of the best 8 teams in the country .. Well we still have a big issue which is entering with fear for the first 30 minutes !

[P3te]

i don't think it's fear. young teams don't tend to have much fear, but i'm at a loss to explain it

[the_eristic]

i don't think it's fear. young teams don't tend to have much fear, but i'm at a loss to explain it

 

Fear may not be exactly the right word. More like a type of nerves or mental "block", perhaps. Coming into games, I often get the feeling that they think they have to react to the opposition more than try to take control of the game themselves, that we HAVE to be the proverbial "counterattacking side", which puts us on the back foot from the off (why people insist that a good counterattacking side can't control a game in its own way just as easily as any other type of team, I'll never understand). As the game goes on, they start putting things together and we create spells of dominance regularly (see most of our second halves!). Once the team realizes they can be proactive from the first minute against many (if not all) opponents, we should stop leaking those early goals.

[quizme]

With Kozak in the team top 4, easily

[Kiwivillan]

White Hart Lane

[Dodgyknees]

8-13

[leviramsey]

Average table

[levi @ localhost | 02:55:30] strength     ./soccerseasonpredict.pl 100000 < ~/leagues/epl/2013pred | tail -n 40 | head -n 20
1.5	 enLFC: 30.1	6.0	1.9	72.6	11.0	61.5	96.3
1.7	 enAFC: 29.4	6.6	3.0	71.0	14.2	56.8	94.8
3.0	 enCFC: 25.7	8.2	4.1	64.2	17.6	46.5	85.2
4.3	enMCFC: 22.5	8.2	7.3	58.5	23.4	35.1	75.6
5.2	enTHFC: 20.3	9.1	9.5	47.5	25.9	21.7	70.1
6.4	enMUFC: 18.2	9.0	10.8	53.6	35.0	18.6	63.7
7.9	enAVFC: 16.8	7.6	13.6	55.8	46.1	9.7	58.0
9.0	 enWHU: 14.5	10.4	13.1	37.1	33.2	3.9	54.0
9.4	enSTOK: 14.4	9.4	14.1	36.6	37.2	-0.6	52.8
9.9	enNRWC: 14.1	9.2	14.7	43.2	44.8	-1.5	51.4
10.3	enCRDF: 13.7	9.2	15.2	42.1	46.6	-4.5	50.2
12.6	 enEFC: 9.6	14.6	13.8	23.2	31.6	-8.4	43.5
13.1	enSWNS: 10.6	10.1	17.2	27.9	41.8	-13.9	42.1
13.7	enNUFC: 10.2	10.0	17.8	28.7	48.5	-19.8	40.6
13.9	enCRSP: 10.6	7.9	19.5	37.4	55.3	-17.9	39.8
15.9	enHULL: 8.2	9.1	20.6	23.7	50.7	-26.9	33.8
16.9	 enFFC: 7.6	7.6	22.8	27.9	62.4	-34.6	30.4
17.7	 enWBA: 6.6	7.7	23.7	29.9	69.4	-39.5	27.5
18.5	 enSFC: 4.7	10.2	23.1	14.5	51.7	-37.1	24.2
19.4	enSUND: 4.1	7.9	26.1	21.0	70.0	-49.1	20.0

Villa finish distribution

3rd: 0.1%

4th: 1.6%

5th: 6.9%

6th: 17.3%

7th: 24.3% <= MEDIAN

8th: 17.6%

9th: 12.6%

10th: 8.5%

11th: 5.3%

12th: 2.9%

13th: 1.6%

14th: 0.8%

15th: 0.3%

16th: 0.1%

[Kwan]

Still certainly believe Top 8.

We will surprise people, even on this forum.

[jimcohen]

9th and i'd take that

[momo]

Buttom half of the top half...so 6th.

Edited September 2, 2013 by momo

[AVTuco]

Average table

[levi @ localhost | 02:55:30] strength     ./soccerseasonpredict.pl 100000 < ~/leagues/Premier League/2013pred | tail -n 40 | head -n 20
1.5	 enLFC: 30.1	6.0	1.9	72.6	11.0	61.5	96.3
1.7	 enAFC: 29.4	6.6	3.0	71.0	14.2	56.8	94.8
3.0	 enCFC: 25.7	8.2	4.1	64.2	17.6	46.5	85.2
4.3	enMCFC: 22.5	8.2	7.3	58.5	23.4	35.1	75.6
5.2	enTHFC: 20.3	9.1	9.5	47.5	25.9	21.7	70.1
6.4	enMUFC: 18.2	9.0	10.8	53.6	35.0	18.6	63.7
7.9	enAVFC: 16.8	7.6	13.6	55.8	46.1	9.7	58.0
9.0	 enWHU: 14.5	10.4	13.1	37.1	33.2	3.9	54.0
9.4	enSTOK: 14.4	9.4	14.1	36.6	37.2	-0.6	52.8
9.9	enNRWC: 14.1	9.2	14.7	43.2	44.8	-1.5	51.4
10.3	enCRDF: 13.7	9.2	15.2	42.1	46.6	-4.5	50.2
12.6	 enEFC: 9.6	14.6	13.8	23.2	31.6	-8.4	43.5
13.1	enSWNS: 10.6	10.1	17.2	27.9	41.8	-13.9	42.1
13.7	enNUFC: 10.2	10.0	17.8	28.7	48.5	-19.8	40.6
13.9	enCRSP: 10.6	7.9	19.5	37.4	55.3	-17.9	39.8
15.9	enHULL: 8.2	9.1	20.6	23.7	50.7	-26.9	33.8
16.9	 enFFC: 7.6	7.6	22.8	27.9	62.4	-34.6	30.4
17.7	 enWBA: 6.6	7.7	23.7	29.9	69.4	-39.5	27.5
18.5	 enSFC: 4.7	10.2	23.1	14.5	51.7	-37.1	24.2
19.4	enSUND: 4.1	7.9	26.1	21.0	70.0	-49.1	20.0

Villa finish distribution3rd: 0.1%4th: 1.6%5th: 6.9%6th: 17.3%7th: 24.3% <= MEDIAN8th: 17.6%9th: 12.6%10th: 8.5%11th: 5.3%12th: 2.9%13th: 1.6%14th: 0.8%15th: 0.3%16th: 0.1%

I would be thrilled if this became reality, but I don't agree personally. Too optimistic for me.

If I'm right with my 14th prediction, I will look pretty good. Not one in a million, but more than one in a hundred .

[Dodgyknees]

We are awful at home. I was saying 8-13, now that is 13 or below.

[jacketspuds]

No way we will finish above 14th whilst being so crap at home.