ciggiesnbeer Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Honestly still too hard to predict. We could collapse and be in a relegation battle again or we could be pushing for europe. Could break either way in my mind. Loving it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ooh-Ah Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Top half finish would be excellent. The optimism is fantastic but talk of 6th is more than a little premature IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romavillan Posted August 23, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted August 23, 2013 if we get a positive result against liverpool then the squad will be thinking they can take on anyone after the insane start to the season. it's a long old season though and we're bound to get turned over a few times and have problems with injuries etc. top half will be excellent progress, anything else will be very special indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa_shere Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 I predict well finish on 48 points. Maybe 11th-13th. Would like to be on 40 points by April for once so that we can enjoy the season a bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodders Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 we will not collapse and be involved in a relegation battle. I've seen too much in admittedly just two games to conclude that. I'm quietly confident we may be closer to the top 6 than I first thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted August 23, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted August 23, 2013 We are currently the favorites in the "to win the league after handicap" market on betfair:Villa (+37 pts): 9.8Southampton (+34 pts): 11Spurs (+14 pts): 14Fulham (+37 pts): 14West Ham (+36 pts): 14.5Liverpool (+16 pts): 15.5Swansea (+34 pts): 16.5Chelsea (+1 pt): 17Man City (+0 pts): 19.5Hull (+46 pts): 19.5Man Utd (+2 pts): 19.5Norwich (+40 pts): 18Everton (+26 pts): 21Cardiff (+42 pts): 22Palace (+50 pts): 26Sunderland (+37 pts): 30Newcastle (+33 pts): 34Stoke (+39 pts): 34West Brom (+35 pts): 38Arsenal (+8 pts): 55 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVTuco Posted August 24, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted August 24, 2013 My power ratings are rather tentative at this point (between only counting the tail-end of last season* and European qualifiers; and not having enough games from the promoted sides to judge), but a prelimnary Monte Carlo simulation (1000 runs) gives us an average predicted finish of 7.2 with an upper quartile finish (25% chance of this finish or better) of 5th and a lower quartile finish of 9th. You need more than a thousand. Do 100.000 and then come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted August 24, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted August 24, 2013 It actually converges pretty quickly (I'm not putting much (any, really, beyond having scorelines that match the result) effort into scoreline prediction) even at 1000 (which as mentioned is a preliminary run... 100k has been my usual sample).Average Villa points for 100 runs: 61.2 (7.5 finish, 1.0% chance at the title)1000 runs: 61.2 (7.4 finish, 0.8% chance at the title)1e4 runs: 61.3 (7.4 finish, 0.8% chance at the title) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 Didn't Monte Carlo give us about 1% chance of escaping relegation at a particular point last season? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 Didn't Monte Carlo give us about 1% chance of escaping relegation at a particular point last season? A Monte Carlo model may have done, but I'd wager that whoever ran that model put the wrong variables into it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PussEKatt Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 I would say, around midtable,which is excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyBM Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 i reckon between 11th and 16th, which although is a positive finish than last year, is still pretty sh ite and proves were still a mid table team does anyone know if there is a website were you can predict all the scores for all the matches in a whole season to tally up and predict the league table at the end? (and if there isnt can some brainiac on here invent one? :-D) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted August 24, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted August 24, 2013 Didn't Monte Carlo give us about 1% chance of escaping relegation at a particular point last season? A Monte Carlo model may have done, but I'd wager that whoever ran that model put the wrong variables into it!There were some interesting bugs in my perl code (though I'm not sure those bugs had much of an effect at the time... we were diabolical back in January) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVTuco Posted August 24, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted August 24, 2013 Didn't Monte Carlo give us about 1% chance of escaping relegation at a particular point last season? A Monte Carlo model may have done, but I'd wager that whoever ran that model put the wrong variables into it! It wasn't all that far away now, was it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVTuco Posted August 24, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted August 24, 2013 How far in the tail is 14th (my prediction a few weeks back)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted August 24, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted August 24, 2013 (edited) Bottom percentile, give or take(0.1% chance of 16th0.3% chance of 15th0.6% chance of 14th) Edited August 24, 2013 by leviramsey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVTuco Posted August 24, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted August 24, 2013 Bottom percentile, give or take(0.1% chance of 16th0.3% chance of 15th0.6% chance of 14th) Ok thanks mate. it's all interesting. Even if I'd still give it much better odds, even with our good start . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted August 24, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted August 24, 2013 (edited) Wrong thread. Edited August 24, 2013 by leviramsey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetrov Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 There looks a lot more dross this season - I m not convinced we've progressed much at - no clean sheets - No one other than Benteke looks like scoring - barring a big splash in the transfer market I'm sticking with 15th.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amo69 Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 12th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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