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30 minutes ago, DJBOB said:

 

 

What's interesting about this is this not only shoots past the Biden to Trump voters theory - but also postulates that not only will people switch from Biden to Trump, but also then vote for a Democratic Senator as well. Can it happen? Crazier things have happened, but exceedingly difficult to try and reconcile two disparate points.

Of course - the simplest explanation is usually the most reasonable one - Americans are just dumb.

I just don’t believe that.  If people are voting down the card for a Dem, there is no way in the current climate are they going to vote for Trump.

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Emerson

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/march-2024-national-poll-trump-45-biden-45haley-primary-voters-break-for-biden-over-trump-in-general-election/

Info not in the tweeters summary

Quote
  • Haley primary voters break for Biden in the general election, 63% to 27%, with 10% undecided. In 2020 these voters broke for Biden 52% to 36%.
  • Independent voters break for Trump 42% to 39%, with 19% undecided. With the undecided push, Biden’s support increases to 52% and Trump to 48%. 
  • Those who did not vote in 2020 break for Trump 46% to 17%, with 36% undecided.
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Among Trump voters, 83% say they will definitely support him, while 17% could change their minds. Among Biden voters, 87% will definitely support him, and 13% could change their minds.

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When undecided voters are pushed in the head-to-head matchup, Biden gains a two-point lead


overall…

1350 people - 875 white, 799 South/MidWest region, predominately lower than college graduate level according to the stats.  Is it really a balanced representation.

Edited by nick76
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2 hours ago, nick76 said:

Emerson

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/march-2024-national-poll-trump-45-biden-45haley-primary-voters-break-for-biden-over-trump-in-general-election/

Info not in the tweeters summary


overall…

1350 people - 875 white, 799 South/MidWest region, predominately lower than college graduate level according to the stats.  Is it really a balanced representation.

Just mind boggling numbers. 
 
Going to rival the 2000 election for a tight race and those late breaking undecided voters will determine a razor thin margin. 

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1 hour ago, mjmooney said:

Reminder: we voted for Brexit. 

In fairness - there was a lot of cloak and dagger with that first Brexit vote. I wonder what the numbers are for Brexit now?

In comparison, everyone should know what to expect for Trump and yet are contemplating voting for him AGAIN. 

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1 hour ago, DJBOB said:

Just mind boggling numbers. 
 
Going to rival the 2000 election for a tight race and those late breaking undecided voters will determine a razor thin margin. 

 

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14 minutes ago, nick76 said:

 

Yeah I think a little bit what we talked about. People are risk averse and the incumbency factor is strong. 

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At least he'll be keeping himself busy.

Quote

Following a series of court developments in 2023 and this month, former President Donald Trump’s 2024 legal schedule has come into focus, as has his political one. In the calendar below, we capture significant events in both domains—and how they interrelate. While the full calendar below tracks hundreds of events, here are the top 17 legal and political dates as of now:

 

https://www.justsecurity.org/88039/trumps-legal-and-political-calendar-all-the-dates-you-need-to-know/

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I am reading a Kissinger biography and it really is very chastening.

While we are arguing about who is the nicest person, the confabulating geriatric or Orange man, the big wheels are probably discussing which cities they would willingly sacrifice (30m people), in a "limited" nuclear exchange with the Ruskis.

I think I'll stick with the trivia.

 

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Read an interesting article on the election today, which points out that whatever happens in the Presidential election the Democrats are extremely likely to lose the senate (all seats up for election in battleground states thus cycle are currently held by democrats), whereas in a close election the Republicans are likely to lose the House.

Which means whoever wins is unlikely to actually be able to govern.

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So Mike Gallagher will leave his seat in the House on April 18th, one day after the deadline for special elections in Wisconsin runs out.. It means the seat will remain open until the next election.

Overall, it takes the GOP majority down to just 1 seat when he leaves. 

His reason for leaving is that he can't take the MAGA-clown gang anymore. Way to go Donald, even if you're elected you won't have the power to do much based 100% on your idiots in Congress. MTG, Jim Jordan and the like.

Edited by magnkarl
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