U.S. Politics

[magnkarl]

Polling was incredibly bad last time too.

The 'red wave' in the midterms never happened, Trump 2020 never happened, even though the polls suggested he and the GOP would win big.

Personally I don't trust polls anymore, I don't think people are as inclined to be truthful to pollsters unless they're outright MAGA-idiots. Politics have become deeply personal in America due to jan 6th, and people are rightly reserved because of it. Unless they're not some fur wearing shaman who pretends to want 'democracy' while voting for a serial criminal grifter you likely won't get an honest answer.

Edited March 6 by magnkarl

[limpid]

At least part of the problem is that many of these polls are still conducted by phoning people.

That will always lead to a bias favouring the opinions of older, more conservative responders.

[DCJonah]

26 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Polling was incredibly bad last time too.

The 'red wave' in the midterms never happened, Trump 2020 never happened, even though the polls suggested he and the GOP would win big.

Personally I don't trust polls anymore, I don't think people are as inclined to be truthful to pollsters unless they're outright MAGA-idiots. Politics have become deeply personal in America due to jan 6th, and people are rightly reserved because of it. Unless they're not some fur wearing shaman who pretends to want 'democracy' while voting for a serial criminal grifter you likely won't get an honest answer.

Yeah it was quite funny seeing a few people proudly stating that the red wave was coming for it all to go tits up. 

[choffer]

CNN reporting that Haley is exiting the race today. Surprised she stayed in it so long. 

[DJBOB]

It’s hard to believe, but some of the less biased pollers I follow are really saying that there’s a small but significant set of voters who voted for Biden and are switching to Trump as the reason for Biden currently losing in the polls. 
 
Who these people are and what their mindset is continue to be a struggle in basic logical reconciliation. 
 
Polls have been off and I think the race will be close but it really is a struggle for me on who those people are. The rabid base I get, but vote switchers? Truly mind boggling. 

Edited March 6 by DJBOB

[bickster]

10 minutes ago, DJBOB said:

It’s hard to believe, but some of the less biased pollers I follow are really saying that there’s a small but significant set of voters who voted for Biden and are switching to Trump as the reason for Biden currently losing in the polls. 
 
Who these people are and what their mindset is continue to be a struggle in basic logical reconciliation. 
 
Polls have been off and I think the race will be close but it really is a struggle for me on who those people are. The rabid base I get, but vote switchers? Truly mind boggling. 

The rabid base wasn't always THAT rabid either, some peoples circumstances change for the worst and they get caught up in the cult of Trump. I'll wager the alternative subset of voters that voted Trump previously to get him elected and will now vote Biden is much larger. Another way of looking at it is that Trump alienates far more Republicans than Biden alienates Democrats

[MakemineVanilla]

14 minutes ago, DJBOB said:

It’s hard to believe, but some of the less biased pollers I follow are really saying that there’s a small but significant set of voters who voted for Biden and are switching to Trump as the reason for Biden currently losing in the polls. 
 
Who these people are and what their mindset is continue to be a struggle in basic logical reconciliation. 
 
Polls have been off and I think the race will be close but it really is a struggle for me on who those people are. The rabid base I get, but vote switchers? Truly mind boggling. 

So what do the republican media say, which might have convinced democrat voters to switch?

[Panto_Villan]

7 minutes ago, DJBOB said:

It’s hard to believe, but some of the less biased pollers I follow are really saying that there’s a small but significant set of voters who voted for Biden and are switching to Trump as the reason for Biden currently losing in the polls. 
 
Who these people are and what their mindset is continue to be a struggle in basic logical reconciliation. 
 
Polls have been off and I think the race will be close but it really is a struggle for me on who those people are. The rabid base I get, but vote switchers? Truly mind boggling. 

Polls suggest two large groups that have swung somewhat towards Trump are black men and Latino men (not women).

While I don’t think it makes sense for those groups to switch sides, I don’t think a shift of 20% to the Republicans is necessarily unrealistic. There could be any number of reasons for it, not least the inflation in recent years might have convinced some that the economy would be better under Trump.

[DJBOB]

5 minutes ago, bickster said:

The rabid base wasn't always THAT rabid either, some peoples circumstances change for the worst and they get caught up in the cult of Trump. I'll wager the alternative subset of voters that voted Trump previously to get him elected and will now vote Biden is much larger. Another way of looking at it is that Trump alienates far more Republicans than Biden alienates Democrats

I agree, but Biden is losing the “independent” or vote switchers which is causing some cognitive dissonance for me. 
 
It’s a long race and I also subscribe to the theory that polling is off because of the respondents but Biden was leading at this point in the race in the polls in 2020 so it’s not a complete fabrication that he is behind right now. 

[DJBOB]

1 minute ago, Panto_Villan said:

Polls suggest two large groups that have swung somewhat towards Trump are black men and Latino men (not women).

While I don’t think it makes sense for those groups to switch sides, I don’t think a shift of 20% to the Republicans is necessarily unrealistic. There could be any number of reasons for it, not least the inflation in recent years might have convinced some that the economy would be better under Trump.

Hmm I can get they in a lot of ways. A bloc inherently screwed over by the system switching back. 
 
Still mind boggling but a lot of voters like that in Miami once you can get them talking. 

[DJBOB]

4 minutes ago, MakemineVanilla said:

So what do the republican media say, which might have convinced democrat voters to switch?

I think I’ve commented before, Biden is old and the immigrants are coming to steal and murder you seem to be a winning message!

[HKP90]

18 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

Polls suggest two large groups that have swung somewhat towards Trump are black men and Latino men (not women).

While I don’t think it makes sense for those groups to switch sides, I don’t think a shift of 20% to the Republicans is necessarily unrealistic. There could be any number of reasons for it, not least the inflation in recent years might have convinced some that the economy would be better under Trump.

If they want their kids to pay for bills incurred today.

[nick76]

 

[nick76]

2 hours ago, Panto_Villan said:

Polls suggest two large groups that have swung somewhat towards Trump are black men and Latino men (not women).

While I don’t think it makes sense for those groups to switch sides, I don’t think a shift of 20% to the Republicans is necessarily unrealistic. There could be any number of reasons for it, not least the inflation in recent years might have convinced some that the economy would be better under Trump.

Really doubt that when it comes down to it that anywhere near 20% moves to Republicans.  Inflation is one of the best in western countries and  everybody knows what he means on mass deportation in the millions that he’s a history of targeting Latino’s.  I think this is just a MAGA narrative with no substance. There are many reasons why these groups won’t jump ship to the levels you are saying not least that Trump is far worse for them than even Biden.

[VILLAMARV]

4 hours ago, limpid said:

At least part of the problem is that many of these polls are still conducted by phoning people.

That will always lead to a bias favouring the opinions of older, more conservative responders.

And the online ones are blighted by self selection bias. And a lack of oversight.

Of course in the targetted algorythm world commissioning different polls built to get the response you desire from each individual is the name of the game.

[Genie]

If you don’t like the prediction find a different poll 

[Mr_Dogg]

4 minutes ago, Genie said:

If you don’t like the prediction find a different poll 

Well more like take an amalgam of numerous polls.

Although they are almost worthless.

[DJBOB]

27 minutes ago, nick76 said:

Really doubt that when it comes down to it that anywhere near 20% moves to Republicans.  Inflation is one of the best in western countries and  everybody knows what he means on mass deportation in the millions that he’s a history of targeting Latino’s.  I think this is just a MAGA narrative with no substance. There are many reasons why these groups won’t jump ship to the levels you are saying not least that Trump is far worse for them than even Biden.

I think @Panto_Villan has a point and while I think the polls will get closer as we get closer to the election, there does exist this group - specifically amongst Latino and Black men in the US - that can be moved. Whether or not it's at the 20% margin is a good question, but I wouldn't dismiss it outright.

The deportation argument has the same paradoxical features as red state voters voting against their health care options. Red states, in general, have the worst options and outcomes for health care and would most benefit from expanded federal money yet they consistently vote against it. Leopard eating its face scenario. The same exists of Latinos - who are a very varied block - and immigration. Those that tend to vote for Trump are of the same ilk - this won't happen to me because of xyz.

And in general - Latino and Black men - in large swathes tend to be way more socially conservative when it comes to LGTBQ rights and can easily buy into the fake machismo Joey Barton-esque dialogue that the Trump and Republicans like to push.

Whether or not this will make enough of a difference in the general election will be a key question.

Edited March 6 by DJBOB

[nick76]

6 minutes ago, Genie said:

If you don’t like the prediction find a different poll 

I just go based on actual results these days and 2018, 2020, 2022 keeps saying that Dems will be ok despite polling and some media predictions.  I’d be surprised if the result for President will be very different from 2020 when Biden won. Biden may lose a few votes but Trump is losing more by turning off independent voters, along with women’s health/abortion issue, the mass immigration talk and the indictments.  MAGA is as strong as ever but that is only a proportion of the Republican base and while it’s a significant portion, there are reasonable republicans around that will never vote for Trump.

[nick76]

10 minutes ago, DJBOB said:

I think @Panto_Villan has a point and while I think the polls will get closer as we get closer to the election, there does exist this group - specifically amongst Latino and Black men in the US - that can be moved. Whether or not it's at the 20% margin is a good question, but I wouldn't dismiss it outright.

The deportation argument has the same paradoxical features as red state voters voting against their health care options. Red states, in general, have the worst options and outcomes for health care and would most benefit from expanded federal money yet they consistently vote against it. Leopard eating its face scenario. The same exists of Latinos - who are a very varied block - and immigration. Those that tend to vote for Trump are of the same ilk - this won't happen to me because of xyz.

And in general - Latino and Black men - in large swathes tend to be way more socially conservative when it comes to LGTBQ rights and can easily buy into the fake machismo Joey Barton-esque dialogue that the Trump and Republicans like to push.

Whether or not this will make enough of a difference in the general election will be a key question.

All fair points.  I think those that voted for Trump in 2020 in those groups will vote for Trump again and those that voted for Biden will vote again for him.  These two candidates are so different that in those groups especially it doesn’t make sense that a material portion would swap to a complete opposite candidate.  If you believed in Biden/Dem policies/ideas in 2020, you couldn’t swing enough in 2024 to Trump who more extreme than he was in 2020….and vice versa.