Relegation

[mykeyb]

Chelsea win tomorrow and they have Champions League so could rest some players for our match being as the Europe League Final is next Wednesday which would make our job a little easier.

 

I doubt whether Norwich will win one of the last two just cant see it, Newcastle might get a result at QPR would thats not set in stone.

 

If it really comes down to it you would imagine Wigan would need a win on the last game of the season, their 5th game in 15 days with injuries mounting (I personally hope that the final goes to extra time just to make it more tiring). I would be surprised if we won that one by more than a couple of goals.

 

Wigan have to win 2 out of their last 3 and thats without getting anything from the Chelsea game. Wigan, Norwich, Newcastle & Sunderland are in far worse positions than us as we have the points on the table.

[sne]

Oh man. Some of you are not going to like the table since the new year now !

I quite enjoy looking at that table but there's only 1 table that counts and that's the one after 38 games

[PieFacE]

Oh man. Some of you are not going to like the table since the new year now !

Do show!

[BOF]

Oh man. Some of you are not going to like the table since the new year now !

I quite enjoy looking at that table but there's only 1 table that counts and that's the one after 38 games

Fo' sho'. It's just a curiosity is all.

Oh man. Some of you are not going to like the table since the new year now !

Do show!

	TEAM	P	W	D	L	F	A	Pts	GD	PPG	LP
1	Manchester United	16	11	3	2	29	9	36	+20	2.25	1
2	Arsenal	16	9	4	3	23	14	31	+9	1.94	4
3	Manchester City	15	9	3	3	23	12	30	+11	2	2
4	Chelsea	15	9	2	4	28	15	29	+13	1.93	3
5	Tottenham Hotspur	15	8	5	2	25	17	29	+8	1.93	5
6	Liverpool	16	7	6	3	36	16	27	+20	1.69	7
7	Everton	16	7	6	3	19	13	27	+6	1.69	6
8	Aston Villa	16	6	4	6	29	26	22	+3	1.38	13
9	Southampton	16	5	6	5	19	19	21	0	1.31	14
10	West Ham United	16	5	5	6	18	21	20	-3	1.25	10
11	Fulham	16	5	4	7	16	21	19	-5	1.19	12
12	Newcastle United	16	5	3	8	17	29	18	-12	1.13	17
13	Wigan Athletic	15	4	5	6	20	29	17	-9	1.13	18
14	Sunderland	16	4	4	8	19	26	16	-7	1	15
15	West Bromwich Albion	15	4	3	8	20	22	15	-2	1	8
16	Swansea City	15	3	6	6	14	20	15	-6	1	9
17	Queens Park Rangers	16	3	6	7	13	21	15	-8	0.94	20
18	Reading	16	4	3	9	19	30	15	-11	0.94	19
19	Norwich City	16	2	7	7	11	24	13	-13	0.81	16
20	Stoke City	16	3	3	10	11	25	12	-14	0.75	11

[NormandyVillan]

If Newcastle get a draw at QPR and a draw against Arsenal at home, they stay up if we get zero points from Chelsea and Wigan.

 

Not necessarily. If we lose both our games by a single goal and Newcastle draw both theirs, we will be tied with them on points AND goal difference. It would then come down to goals scored.

 

We have currently scored one more goal than them, so for example:

 

Two 1-1 draws for Newcastle and two 1-2 defeats for us means we finish above them.

 

Two 1-1 draws for Newcastle and 0-1 and 1-2 defeats for us means we are tied on points, goal difference AND goals scored.

 

In the second case, IF Wigan, Sunderland, Norwich and Southampton have all overtaken us, meaning we are tied for a relegation place, we will then have to PLAY OFF AGAINST NEWCASTLE!

 

Now that would be fun...

[Woodytom]

 

Sunderland to beat Stoke

Wigan to beat swans

Sunderland draw with Saints

Newc to beat qpr

Chelsea to beat us

and

Norwich to beat WBA

 

 

A 13/1 accumulator. Not exactly massive

 

You set up this didn't you? So at the first hurdle you lost your bet.

 

 

 

That was a mistake post that I held my hands up to as I got the odds wrong. I had entered the £1 in the singles box (which when I looked back was the only available box for some reason).

 

My posts that followed simply highlighted that the above results are more likely (in terms of accumulator odds), than pretty much any other combination of results - suggesting that whilst they would be an unfortunate set of results for AV, they are no more freakish than any other random combination of results.

 

I reiterated over and over again that I don't think Villa will go down (though I took full advantage of the ridiculous 40/1 that was available Saturday night) however, I am not ready to sit back and enjoy the rest of the season just yet for a number of reasons - most of which are being discussed in this thread.

 

FWIW, If I had to predict a result last night, I probably would have said Sunderland to win, though I was quite pleased when it ended 1-1 as it keeps Sunderland well in the mix (meaning there game with Southampton is ultra massive) and yet Stoke are still not safe so should be interested when they also play Southampton.

[Woodytom]

 

 

Oh man. Some of you are not going to like the table since the new year now !

I quite enjoy looking at that table but there's only 1 table that counts and that's the one after 38 games

 

Fo' sho'. It's just a curiosity is all.

 

Oh man. Some of you are not going to like the table since the new year now !

Do show!

 

  TEAM P W D L F A Pts GD PPG LP 1 Manchester United 16 11 3 2 29 9 36 +20 2.25 1 2 Arsenal 16 9 4 3 23 14 31 +9 1.94 4 3 Manchester City 15 9 3 3 23 12 30 +11 2 2 4 Chelsea 15 9 2 4 28 15 29 +13 1.93 3 5 Tottenham Hotspur 15 8 5 2 25 17 29 +8 1.93 5 6 Liverpool 16 7 6 3 36 16 27 +20 1.69 7 7 Everton 16 7 6 3 19 13 27 +6 1.69 6 8 Aston Villa 16 6 4 6 29 26 22 +3 1.38 13 9 Southampton 16 5 6 5 19 19 21 0 1.31 14 10 West Ham United 16 5 5 6 18 21 20 -3 1.25 10 11 Fulham 16 5 4 7 16 21 19 -5 1.19 12 12 Newcastle United 16 5 3 8 17 29 18 -12 1.13 17 13 Wigan Athletic 15 4 5 6 20 29 17 -9 1.13 18 14 Sunderland 16 4 4 8 19 26 16 -7 1 15 15 West Bromwich Albion 15 4 3 8 20 22 15 -2 1 8 16 Swansea City 15 3 6 6 14 20 15 -6 1 9 17 Queens Park Rangers 16 3 6 7 13 21 15 -8 0.94 20 18 Reading 16 4 3 9 19 30 15 -11 0.94 19 19 Norwich City 16 2 7 7 11 24 13 -13 0.81 16 20 Stoke City 16 3 3 10 11 25 12 -14 0.75 11

 

 

All ifs n buts, but you look at the Swansea, WBA and Everton games - We would probably be 8th now if we hadnt have ballsd them up with moments to go (not so much WBA game).

[Zatman]

2nd highest goalscorers since January 1st

[Woodytom]

2nd highest goalscorers since January 1st

 

 

Shows how crap our defence is.

[Jimmytheirishvillain]

I just went into the future with Doc Brown and Marty Mccfly and heres how the greatest conspiracy in premier league history pans out lukaku scores a 70 yard back heel into top corner of his own net on Saturday as Norwich are too useless to do it themselves Steve Clarke smiles the broadest as this is the first step of his and many other prem mangers plan to relegate villa who sit in 13th.

Mean while at loftus road harry red knapp fresh from his humiliating 1-0 defeat to arsenal brings himself on in place of Robert green who can't stop saving Ben arfas shots from 40 yards and allows a Bruce Grobelar type fumble of the ball to cross the line and Newcastle win 1-0 .

Cross to the stadium of light and news is filtering through that Sunderland need a goal and they will rise above villa so Southampton knowing that their guaranteed a win next Saturday Against stoke stand back and allow Carlos Culler to strike at an open goal from three yards, after he hits the cross bar 5 times it eventually comes off his knee and trickles over the line Sunderland 1-0 Southampton

All this along with the 5-0 beating Wigan gave Swansea during the week who were actually playing their game via a live satellite feed from a beach in the Bahamas and the 0-16 reverse chelsea inflicted on villa at villa park earlier in the day spells trouble for us. Wigan then after winning the fa cup final purposely throws the game at arsenal so arsenal will have nothing to play for at Newcastle next week as the secure champions league football Wigan did this so they could allow us to have slim hope for a few days till we face them. With all but Wigan and southampton below villa by 2 and 1 point respectfully it goes into the final games of the season. After all 11 stoke players heads get bandaged from their scrum like tackles Southampton score and stay up with a 1-0 score line. Newcastle and Sunderland and norwich lose against arsenal and spurs and man city but this doesn't matter all eyes are on the villa Wigan game. After a tightly fought contest it stands at 0-0 with 1 minute to go. Gabbi agbonlahor who single handedly has battered Wigan for 89 mins and looks most likely to score is replaced by Charles n zogbia. A corner comes into the box from Maloney and n zogbia gets up with a header knocking it past Guzan, as the fans spill onto the pitch n zogbia takes off his villa jersey to reveal a Wigan jersey Dave Whelan comes down from the stand and returns n zogbias stuffed toy Mr HOney Bunny unharmed as per the arrangement. Villa are down. A great cheer goes up over England then there's a huge party and Alex Mcleish makes a speech. The end.

[Zatman]

[Woodytom]

Or the above just could happen, without the ridiculous irony, as the results you highlight are not really that unlikely. 

 

Its not as if anybodys got their house on it happening or are confident we are going down. People are just simply discussing relegation (as this is the relegation thread) and are putting forward genuine concerns that might not help Villa.

[Jimmytheirishvillain]

Or the above just could happen, without the ridiculous irony, as the results you highlight are not really that unlikely. 

 

Its not as if anybodys got their house on it happening or are confident we are going down. People are just simply discussing relegation (as this is the relegation thread) and are putting forward genuine concerns that might not help Villa.

Just trying to lighten the mood a bit

[Pongotastic]

Bookies are now offering between 22-28/1 on Villa being relegated.

 

All of my non Villa supporting mates say that we are safe. I think it's just us fans that are so concerned. Being Villa fans we were put on this earth to be negative, cynical and pessimistic.

[Woodytom]

 

Or the above just could happen, without the ridiculous irony, as the results you highlight are not really that unlikely. 

 

Its not as if anybodys got their house on it happening or are confident we are going down. People are just simply discussing relegation (as this is the relegation thread) and are putting forward genuine concerns that might not help Villa.

Just trying to lighten the mood a bit

 

 

I appreciate that - but Im not sure it needs lightening. Just because everybody hasnt got the same view it doesnt mean they are in an unhappy mood. It would be a pretty grim place if we all came on saying the same thing. (Bit like the next gen series thread).

 

Im not having a go btw, just think peoples concerns are being blown way out of proportion.

[Woodytom]

Bookies are now offering between 22-28/1 on Villa being relegated.

 

All of my non Villa supporting mates say that we are safe. I think it's just us fans that are so concerned. Being Villa fans we were put on this earth to be negative, cynical and pessimistic.

 

 

That must go for all sets of fans who are still down there then.

 

Maybe its because your non villa mates havent truly looked at the fixture list and taken into account who we have on the last day. Maybe they are a lot like mine and just see - '40 points' - until you actually map out the rest of the season to them - making them realise 'oh, your not quite safe yet'.

[The_Rev]

I can still see us getting beat in our next two games. 

 

I'm in a weird position where I want Wigan to stay up too.  I quite like to see a little club with no money playing football in the right way and punching above their weight, and Wigan do exactly that.   

 

Just looking at the remaining fixtures for everybody involved (I'm going to say from Fulham down because I think Stoke are out of it after last night) 

 

 

Fulham: 40 points -11gd  Liverpool (H) Swansea (A)  I'd be stunned if they went down.  I think they will pick up points in their remaining fixtures and their goal difference is far superior too. They went from one of the form teams in the country to being in freefall in the space of a month though. They are bottom of the current form table. 

 

Villa: 40 points -21gd Chelsea (H) Wigan (A) I think we need a point. Goal difference could still be an issue but at least we have managed to remove Newcastle, Norwich & Wigan's advantage over us.  Chelsea have to play us in between a massive game against Spurs and the Europa League final.  Maybe they will rotate. Maybe we will pick up the point we need. Sixth in the current form table. 

 

Southampton: 39 points -11gd Sunderland (A) Stoke (H) Their games will have a huge effect on who goes down.  I think they will beat Stoke on the final day, but the Sunderland game is huge. It's a must win game for Sunderland, it's must not lose for Southampton I feel. Good for us that we still have teams who are beneath us in the table taking points off of each other.  Tenth in the current form table. 

 

Sunderland: 38 points -12gd Southampton(H) Spurs(A) Their goal difference might get them out of the shit, most other teams need a ten goal swing on them.  Southampton is a must win game though, Spurs will need three points on the final day of the season and they will almost certainly get them. 13th in the form table.  Lose to Southampton and I think they are in serious trouble. 

 

Norwich: 38 points  -22gd WBA(H) Manchester City (A) I'd be really worried if I were a Norwich fan. Our last minute winner at Carrow Road was a massive blow to their cause, they absolutely have to beat West Brom because they won't be getting much out of Man City away.  17th in the current form table, though if you extend that back to the last ten or twelve games I suspect they are rock bottom. I genuinely think they could go down. 

 

Newcastle: 38 points -23gd QPR(A) Arsenal (H) If they can beat QPR then they deserve to go down in all honestly. It's a get out of jail free card that they need to cash in on because Arsenal could still need the win on the final day of the season.  I think Newcastle will escape by the skin of their teeth though. 16th in the current form table. 

 

========================================================================================================================

 

Wigan: 35 points -22gd Swansea (A) Arsenal (A) Villa (H)  They have an FA cup final to think about, which adds to fixture congestion at a time when they probably need two wins or a win and two draws from their final three fixtures.  They absolutely have to beat Swansea I think.  I'd still make them favourites to go down, but it's not hopeless and they seem to have the ability not to panic unlike some of the other teams in the mix.  9th in the current form table. 

[Pongotastic]

 

Bookies are now offering between 22-28/1 on Villa being relegated.

 

All of my non Villa supporting mates say that we are safe. I think it's just us fans that are so concerned. Being Villa fans we were put on this earth to be negative, cynical and pessimistic.

 

 

That must go for all sets of fans who are still down there then.

 

Maybe its because your non villa mates havent truly looked at the fixture list and taken into account who we have on the last day. Maybe they are a lot like mine and just see - '40 points' - until you actually map out the rest of the season to them - making them realise 'oh, your not quite safe yet'.

 

 

True, but being impartial gives you a more rounded outlook and from the outside looking in you can see that the wheels have totally fallen off at Newcastle, Sunderland are without 5 key players and Norwich can't buy a goal right now. That quite aside from the fact that we sit 5 points ahead of Wigan with Southampton sandwiched in there too.

 

Saying all of that, I am still very worried!

[Woodytom]

I can still see us getting beat in our next two games. 

 

I'm in a weird position where I want Wigan to stay up too.  I quite like to see a little club with no money playing football in the right way and punching above their weight, and Wigan do exactly that.   

 

Just looking at the remaining fixtures for everybody involved (I'm going to say from Fulham down because I think Stoke are out of it after last night) 

 

 

Fulham: 40 points -11gd  Liverpool (H) Swansea (A)  I'd be stunned if they went down.  I think they will pick up points in their remaining fixtures and their goal difference is far superior too. They went from one of the form teams in the country to being in freefall in the space of a month though. They are bottom of the current form table. 

 

Villa: 40 points -21gd Chelsea (H) Wigan (A) I think we need a point. Goal difference could still be an issue but at least we have managed to remove Newcastle, Norwich & Wigan's advantage over us.  Chelsea have to play us in between a massive game against Spurs and the Europa League final.  Maybe they will rotate. Maybe we will pick up the point we need. Sixth in the current form table. 

 

Southampton: 39 points -11gd Sunderland (A) Stoke (H) Their games will have a huge effect on who goes down.  I think they will beat Stoke on the final day, but the Sunderland game is huge. It's a must win game for Sunderland, it's must not lose for Southampton I feel. Good for us that we still have teams who are beneath us in the table taking points off of each other.  Tenth in the current form table. 

 

Sunderland: 38 points -12gd Southampton(H) Spurs(A) Their goal difference might get them out of the shit, most other teams need a ten goal swing on them.  Southampton is a must win game though, Spurs will need three points on the final day of the season and they will almost certainly get them. 13th in the form table.  Lose to Southampton and I think they are in serious trouble. 

 

Norwich: 38 points  -22gd WBA(H) Manchester City (A) I'd be really worried if I were a Norwich fan. Our last minute winner at Carrow Road was a massive blow to their cause, they absolutely have to beat West Brom because they won't be getting much out of Man City away.  17th in the current form table, though if you extend that back to the last ten or twelve games I suspect they are rock bottom. I genuinely think they could go down. 

 

Newcastle: 38 points -23gd QPR(A) Arsenal (H) If they can beat QPR then they deserve to go down in all honestly. It's a get out of jail free card that they need to cash in on because Arsenal could still need the win on the final day of the season.  I think Newcastle will escape by the skin of their teeth though. 16th in the current form table. 

 

========================================================================================================================

 

Wigan: 35 points -22gd Swansea (A) Arsenal (A) Villa (H)  They have an FA cup final to think about, which adds to fixture congestion at a time when they probably need two wins or a win and two draws from their final three fixtures.  They absolutely have to beat Swansea I think.  I'd still make them favourites to go down, but it's not hopeless and they seem to have the ability not to panic unlike some of the other teams in the mix.  9th in the current form table. 

 

 

Excellent Post Rev

 

Very Well balanced and after reading it.......... I still have absolutely no idea who will go down. 

[The_Rev]

Sunderland don't have their top three goalscorers for their remaining fixtures.  Fletcher, Sessegnon and Gardner have scored 24 of Sunderland's goals this season.  Danny Graham still hasnt scored for them yet despite being a regular in the team since they signed him from Swansea on deadline day.