Relegation

[PieFacE]

I actually fancy us against Arsenal at the Emirates. We always seem to do quite well there when playing on the counter. Hope Gabby is back for that one. I think we will get 4 points from the next 4-6 points from the next 4 games.

[Ron Burgundy]

Wigan away - last game of the season is going to be the decider i think.. .. .. ..

[BOF]

Wigan away - last game of the season is going to be the decider i think.. .. .. ..

I'll be a gibbering wreck if that's the case.

[Shillzz]

Wigan always beat us at Villa park, and we often beat them at the DW, could be the most pivotal game in the last 20 years.

[dont_do_it_doug.]

3 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats. I think that'll be enough.

 

I don't know if we're capable of that kind of return, but I just wanted to point out that it's not necessarily another 5 wins or we've had it. Draws do happen and you do get a point for each of them.

 

I'm done predicting football matches, it gets you nowhere. 

[tinker]

Vlar's the difference for me, gives Clark the confidence to start to grow, lowton seems to be digging on and trying, although at times his head drops hes beginning to learn that he needs to carry on. Baker is a great player for me, central defender made in heaven, power and a fair bit of pace and balls of steel, hes at left back atm which wont do his overall game any harm, his gonna be a big big player for Villa.

 

Midfield is still weak for me, Delph, as someone else pointed has cut out the lose the ball then lunge in aspect of his game, he does however over complicate his game with trying to beat to many men in the wrong parts of the pitch....our half. Westwood is a tidy player, but ain't gonna rip up any trees. The forward line is gonna score goals all day long, the are real handful.

 

relegation......if Vlar can stay fit then no, it will be a nervous end to the season.

 

FWIW i think we will beat Arsenal

[Zatman]

Next four games from everyone from West Ham Down:

 

West Ham (30pts -9): Spurs (h), Stoke (a), United (h), Chelsea (a)

 

Fulham (29pts -6): Stoke (h), Sunderland (a), Chelsea (h), Spurs (a)

 

Sunderland (29pts -6): WBA (a), Fulham (h), QPR (a), Norwich (h)

 

Norwich (29pts -15): Everton (h), United (a), Southampton (h), Sunderland (a)

 

Southampton (27pts -9): Newcastle (a), QPR (h), Norwich (a), Liverpool (h)

 

Newcastle (27pts -12): Southampton (h), Swansea (a), Stoke (h), Wigan (a)

 

Aston Villa (24pts -25): Arsenal (a), City (h), Reading (a), QPR (h)

 

Reading (23pts -15): Wigan (h), Everton (a), Villa (h), United (a)

 

Wigan (21pts -21): Reading (a), Liverpool (h), City (a), Newcastle (h)

 

QPR (17pts -22): United (h), Southampton (a), Sunderland (h), Villa (a)

 

Newcastle and Southampton have fixtures to pull them away, teh rest of teams will all drop points

[CI]

I can see fulham and Norwich getting sucked down

[Folski]

Next four games from everyone from West Ham Down:

 

West Ham (30pts -9): Spurs (h), Stoke (a), United (h), Chelsea (a)

 

Fulham (29pts -6): Stoke (h), Sunderland (a), Chelsea (h), Spurs (a)

 

Sunderland (29pts -6): WBA (a), Fulham (h), QPR (a), Norwich (h)

 

Norwich (29pts -15): Everton (h), United (a), Southampton (h), Sunderland (a)

 

Southampton (27pts -9): Newcastle (a), QPR (h), Norwich (a), Liverpool (h)

 

Newcastle (27pts -12): Southampton (h), Swansea (a), Stoke (h), Wigan (a)

 

Aston Villa (24pts -25): Arsenal (a), City (h), Reading (a), QPR (h)

 

Reading (23pts -15): Wigan (h), Everton (a), Villa (h), United (a)

 

Wigan (21pts -21): Reading (a), Liverpool (h), City (a), Newcastle (h)

 

QPR (17pts -22): United (h), Southampton (a), Sunderland (h), Villa (a)

 

Newcastle and Southampton have fixtures to pull them away, teh rest of teams will all drop points

I think Sunderland have by far the easiest run of games, I'd be surprised if they didn't get at least 4 points from the four, that would push them onto 33 with 8 games to go. Wigan on the other hand I think will do well to get a point, same goes for QPR. 

[Zatman]

they do on paper but we are heading into March when Villa used to struggle under MON

[AValon]

Some horrible games there for everyone in the 'drop-zone'. Could be season defining for one or two.

[CI]

Wigan v Reading next up. A draw there would be good

[P3te]

Wigan away - last game of the season is going to be the decider i think.. .. .. ..

I'll be a gibbering wreck if that's the case.

That's an absolutely no watch for me anyway. Couldn't do it

[pacbuddies]

 

 

 

Changed my vote from "yes" to "unsure". We still have a big battle ahead but we're moving in the right direction. 

You've changed your vote after one 2-1 victory over one of the worst opposition performances of the season!

 

Talk about 'changes with the wind'. You must be a woman!

 

Har de har har, forgive me whilst I pretend to laugh. It is not about 1 game. It is about the improvement that we've shown over the past 3 games. We're still rubbish but it is a damn sight better than what we've seen previously. We now see desire & urgency, we're improving and we've seen relegation rivals drop points. I am sorry that changing my vote annoys you (well not really). 

Doesn't annoy me. Just amuses me that you can swing so readily after one victory in nearly two months..

 

Perhaps you are one of those people who change their mind on a general election vote every time they hear another a party political broadcast on TV.

 

I want the Villa to do well but I guess I am not so naive as to fall for the first positive thing in months. Let's see if they can keep up the momentum before we get all excited and wet our pants!

 

 

You didn't give me anything like this kind of shit when I changed my vote after the Everton game, based on a general upturn in performances. So why are you giving trekka the third degree now? Have you nothing better to do with your life? 

Are you some sort of Guardian Angel or are you upset that I didn't give you any shit previously?

 

If you think I am giving trekka the third degree then god knows what definition you would give to a post that actually was meant as something other than light banter (did you not notice the smiley in my first post?).

 

I have plenty of better things to do with my life including not jumping on posts that were nothing to do with me in the first place.

[leviramsey]

Another Monte Carlo simulation, this time with 200,000 runs. Think of it as doing 200,000 BBC predictors and tracking the results. Source code (in Perl) is available if you want it, though you'll have to roll your own game expectation functions...

[levi @ tatiana | 17:31:58] strength     ./soccerseasonpredict.pl 200000 < ~/leagues/epl/2012projection | tail -n 20
 enAFC:   0.0   3.0  15.2  40.2  34.4   6.1   1.0   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 
enAVFC:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.1   2.0   3.2   5.4   9.2  17.7  32.5  25.2   3.2 
 enCFC:   0.0  27.1  45.6  19.0   7.2   0.9   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 
 enEFC:   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.1   9.2  45.9  34.0   7.4   1.0   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 
 enFFC:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.2   4.4  14.1  16.2  15.9  14.6  12.6  10.2   6.8   3.2   0.6   0.0 
 enLFC:   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.9   5.9  34.1  42.8  12.7   2.9   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 
enMCFC:   0.1  66.7  25.2   6.6   1.4   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 
enMUFC:  99.9   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 
enNRWC:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.9   7.6  11.6  14.1  15.6  16.1  15.0  11.3   5.1   1.1   0.0 
enNUFC:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.9   3.4  11.6  14.5  15.0  14.7  14.1  12.8   8.5   3.5   0.7   0.0 
 enQPR:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   2.3  13.1  84.1 
 enRFC:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   2.1   4.0   5.9   8.0  10.6  15.0  22.7  20.4  10.0   0.9 
 enSFC:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.1   3.6  11.7  14.5  14.9  14.1  13.3  12.3   9.2   4.2   0.8   0.0 
enSTOK:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.0  12.9  33.1  35.5  10.9   3.5   1.2   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 
enSUND:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   3.0   8.7  24.8  19.9  14.9  11.2   8.2   5.3   2.6   0.8   0.1   0.0 
enSWNS:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   4.0  15.6  49.6  20.6   8.0   1.4   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 
enTHFC:   0.0   3.1  13.6  31.2  41.6   8.6   1.8   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 
enWAFC:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   2.0   3.9   9.6  23.4  47.5  11.8 
 enWBA:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.6  16.1  35.4  32.0   9.1   3.0   1.1   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 
 enWHU:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.3   6.2  11.1  14.6  16.7  17.3  16.2  11.1   4.4   0.8   0.0 

So that puts my guess at relegation chances at:

QPR: 99.5%

Wigan: 82.7%

Villa: 60.9%

Reading: 31.3%

Norwich: 6.2%

West Ham: 5.2%

Southampton: 5.0%

Newcastle: 4.2%

Fulham: 3.8%

Sunderland: 0.9%

[briny_ear]

Another Monte Carlo simulation, this time with 200,000 runs. Think of it as doing 200,000 BBC predictors and tracking the results. Source code (in Perl) is available if you want it, though you'll have to roll your own game expectation functions...

[levi @ tatiana | 17:31:58] strength     ./soccerseasonpredict.pl 200000 < ~/leagues/epl/2012projection | tail -n 20
 enAFC:   0.0   3.0  15.2  40.2  34.4   6.1   1.0   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 
enAVFC:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.1   2.0   3.2   5.4   9.2  17.7  32.5  25.2   3.2 
 enCFC:   0.0  27.1  45.6  19.0   7.2   0.9   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 
 enEFC:   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.1   9.2  45.9  34.0   7.4   1.0   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 
 enFFC:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.2   4.4  14.1  16.2  15.9  14.6  12.6  10.2   6.8   3.2   0.6   0.0 
 enLFC:   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.9   5.9  34.1  42.8  12.7   2.9   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 
enMCFC:   0.1  66.7  25.2   6.6   1.4   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 
enMUFC:  99.9   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 
enNRWC:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.9   7.6  11.6  14.1  15.6  16.1  15.0  11.3   5.1   1.1   0.0 
enNUFC:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.9   3.4  11.6  14.5  15.0  14.7  14.1  12.8   8.5   3.5   0.7   0.0 
 enQPR:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   2.3  13.1  84.1 
 enRFC:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   2.1   4.0   5.9   8.0  10.6  15.0  22.7  20.4  10.0   0.9 
 enSFC:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.1   3.6  11.7  14.5  14.9  14.1  13.3  12.3   9.2   4.2   0.8   0.0 
enSTOK:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.0  12.9  33.1  35.5  10.9   3.5   1.2   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 
enSUND:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   3.0   8.7  24.8  19.9  14.9  11.2   8.2   5.3   2.6   0.8   0.1   0.0 
enSWNS:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   4.0  15.6  49.6  20.6   8.0   1.4   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 
enTHFC:   0.0   3.1  13.6  31.2  41.6   8.6   1.8   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 
enWAFC:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   2.0   3.9   9.6  23.4  47.5  11.8 
 enWBA:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.6  16.1  35.4  32.0   9.1   3.0   1.1   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 
 enWHU:   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.3   6.2  11.1  14.6  16.7  17.3  16.2  11.1   4.4   0.8   0.0 

So that puts my guess at relegation chances at:

QPR: 99.5%

Wigan: 82.7%

Villa: 60.9%

Reading: 31.3%

Norwich: 6.2%

West Ham: 5.2%

Southampton: 5.0%

Newcastle: 4.2%

Fulham: 3.8%

Sunderland: 0.9%

[R.Bear]

No disrespect mate but that's a load of absolute rubbish. It's no more ridiculous than the guys doing the predictor. Making any sort of predictions in terms of how many points we need, wins we need, what games other teams will drop points in etc is completely pointless.

[KjParton]

It is pointless because no one knows whats going to happen in a game situation.

 

Give the players a rest now and have them all fit for Arsenal.

[Folski]

Let's hope Arsenal don't get hammered tonight and still have one eye on the return leg in Germany when we roll into town. 5 points from our next 4 would be ok by me, we can not lose to Reading though.

[fightoffyour]

Arsenal are playing next Tuesday and three weeks after that in the CL. They do however have 2 games between now and when we play them, whilst we have 2 weeks to prepare.

Edited February 12, 2013 by fightoffyour