Chindie Posted November 8, 2016 VT Supporter Share Posted November 8, 2016 Kurdistan encompasses territory of 4 States IIRC. They're not going to get a country of their own. Noone is going to risk giving them some land as the obvious end result is that they'll want all their traditional lands back, and that's not going to be allowed to happen, so it'll turn hotter than it already is and given they've got generations of being treated as less than second class citizens I daresay they wouldn't care too much about upsetting those standing in their way. And internationally they won't have any support because the last thing the Middle East needs is another player pulling another rope. They absolutely should have their country back though. I always thought that it was bizarre that the people of one of the greatest men in Islamic history, Saladin, are given such short shrift by everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted November 8, 2016 Moderator Share Posted November 8, 2016 20 minutes ago, Chindie said: Kurdistan encompasses territory of 4 States IIRC. They're not going to get a country of their own. Noone is going to risk giving them some land as the obvious end result is that they'll want all their traditional lands back, and that's not going to be allowed to happen, so it'll turn hotter than it already is and given they've got generations of being treated as less than second class citizens I daresay they wouldn't care too much about upsetting those standing in their way. And internationally they won't have any support because the last thing the Middle East needs is another player pulling another rope. They absolutely should have their country back though. I always thought that it was bizarre that the people of one of the greatest men in Islamic history, Saladin, are given such short shrift by everyone. Agree on first three paragraphs. Not sure on the last, not saying they shouldn't but I'm generally not a fan of the forceful redrawing of national boundaries. It doesn't solve problems, in fact it only exhaserbates them it seems. Besides lands, kingdoms, empires, nations call them what you will have changed massively in the region over the centuries. There are usually more than one historical claims on land as in the case of Palestine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brumerican Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 On 06/11/2016 at 17:11, StefanAVFC said: https://wikiislam.net/wiki/72_Virgins Perpetual boners ... hahahahahhahahah. Just imagine pissing on your own face for eternity ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 5 hours ago, Chindie said: They absolutely should have their country back though. I always thought that it was bizarre that the people of one of the greatest men in Islamic history, Saladin, are given such short shrift by everyone. Several of the reasons have already been stated but probably the largest is the Kurds own lack of internal cohesion. In short the various factions can't stop competing (or sometimes actually fighting) with each other for long enough to build the necessary united position. A real life Judean People's Front, sadly. For example there are many conservative religious Kurds actually fighting in ISIS, in addition to the communists, democrats et al. These divisions make them vulnerable to outside patrons playing divide and rule, particularly the Turks. The other reason is an abject fear of current Sykes Picot Borders (illusiary as they now are in some cases) dissolving into various statelets and general anarchy. If the Kurds are allowed to do it then you'd see similar moves in southern Iraq, southern Yemen, Libya and maybe even eastern Saudi. The various forces trying to manage regional order for their own benefit will oppose it completely - but for all that it may well be unstoppable anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted November 8, 2016 Moderator Share Posted November 8, 2016 I'm confused AWOL so can only assume I'm misunderstanding as you are normally very clear. On the one hand you seem to be saying a Kurdish state is unlikely due to the lack of internal cohesion but then conclude saying that regional disintegration may be inevitable. Was the last bit on reference to the other states rather than specifically the formation of a Kurdish state? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ikantcpell Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 If Trump wins we can close this thread, he would probably turn the middle east into a huge parking lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villakram Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 1 hour ago, TrentVilla said: I'm confused AWOL so can only assume I'm misunderstanding as you are normally very clear. On the one hand you seem to be saying a Kurdish state is unlikely due to the lack of internal cohesion but then conclude saying that regional disintegration may be inevitable. Was the last bit on reference to the other states rather than specifically the formation of a Kurdish state? Iraq is already pretty much partitioned into 3 states. Intelligent leadership would try get things federated to nip the southern independence (w/ Basra as capitol) thing in the bud in the short-medium term as the northern Kurdistan or whatever they'll call it is already there. Broader Kurdi-land/ville/stan would encompass northern Iraq, some of Syria and most importantly/impossibly some of Turkey. Basically anywhere ethnic Kurds reside... what a bloody mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villakram Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 1 hour ago, Ikantcpell said: If Trump wins we can close this thread, he would probably turn the middle east into a huge parking lot. Errrr... well in contrast to neo-con Queen Clinton, Trump has stated a number of times that he would talk/work with Russia, and this is clearly the only way to make progress on the Syria catastrophe. Now, what he would do with Iran who really knows, but it is Clinton who mentioned glassing that nation once upon a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 30 minutes ago, villakram said: Trump has stated a number of times that he would talk/work with Russia That'd speed up the 'parking lot' process. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 2 hours ago, TrentVilla said: I'm confused AWOL so can only assume I'm misunderstanding as you are normally very clear. On the one hand you seem to be saying a Kurdish state is unlikely due to the lack of internal cohesion but then conclude saying that regional disintegration may be inevitable. Was the last bit on reference to the other states rather than specifically the formation of a Kurdish state? Sorry. A Kurdish state is unlikely because Erdogan would rather kill every Kurd on the planet than see it happen. Turkey has vast military resources and under his direction they could do (even more) awful things. That said I do think the region will come apart & arguably is already doing so. The underlying fundamentals are very bad and there isn't an obviously sound plan to stabilise them. I'd wager what we've called the Arab Spring is far from over and the counter revolution against it by the Gulf States (led by Saudi) is laying the foundations for round two. Egypt is definitely one to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted November 8, 2016 Moderator Share Posted November 8, 2016 I think the region might well come apart as AWOL says, I think the Kurds are doomed because we'll take our traditional stance on things and make sure the Turks are kept happy. They're the buffer, they're geographically and politically important - we'll damn the Kurds to maintain that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 25 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: I think the region might well come apart as AWOL says, I think the Kurds are doomed because we'll take our traditional stance on things and make sure the Turks are kept happy. They're the buffer, they're geographically and politically important - we'll damn the Kurds to maintain that. We'll undoubtedly shaft the Kurds. There's an element of Greek tradegy in the idea that oppressed people anywhere would turn to the "West" for salvation. Our Governments are utterly ammoral bastards. The values we (UK) paupered our country to defend are long gone, sold out to the highest bidder. Thing is we have it in us to do so much better, I just don't see the evidence yet that we will. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted November 8, 2016 Moderator Share Posted November 8, 2016 1 hour ago, Awol said: Thing is we have it in us to do so much better, I just don't see the evidence yet that we will. If only those Kurds could afford some expensive British fighter jets.... And thanks for the rest of the post, I agree entirely. You couldn't pay me to go to Eygpt right now which is a shame as I've always wanted to see the Pyramids, hope I make it before ISIS blow them up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 7 minutes ago, TrentVilla said: If only those Kurds could afford some expensive British fighter jets.... Quite. Whatever illusions British people may still hold that we are moral actors in the world need to be binned ASAP. Successive UK governments have been corporation fellating, international law destroying, moral WMD. It's incomprehensible to me that we could accidentally get things so wrong. The logical conclusion to that is obvious. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brumerican Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 (edited) 12 minutes ago, TrentVilla said: If only those Kurds could afford some expensive British fighter jets.... And thanks for the rest of the post, I agree entirely. You couldn't pay me to go to Eygpt right now which is a shame as I've always wanted to see the Pyramids, hope I make it before ISIS blow them up! I've seen the Pyramids. Probably one of the most disappointing days of my life . And I'm a Villa fan . Edited November 8, 2016 by Brumerican 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted November 8, 2016 Moderator Share Posted November 8, 2016 8 minutes ago, Brumerican said: I've seen the Pyramids. Probably one of the most disappointing days of my life . Can't have been worse than 5th Dec 94! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 15 minutes ago, TrentVilla said: ...I've always wanted to see the Pyramids, hope I make it before ISIS blow them up! I managed it in mid 90's, they're going nowhere - ISIS or not! While we're shooting the breeze I think ISIS as we've known them since 2014 is on the way out, because they will lose physical control of the 'Caliphate'. But.. ISIS is the latest evolution of a belief system that existed long before them and will inevitably emerge again as a global 3.0 version. I'd also bet that the eventual death of Baghdadi will clear the decks for a reunification of AQ and ISIS, plus whatever new strains emerge with Iran. post-the ISIS sectarian mess their 'fall' will precipitate in the broader communities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rugeley Villa Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 5 minutes ago, Awol said: I managed it in mid 90's, they're going nowhere - ISIS or not! While we're shooting the breeze I think ISIS as we've known them since 2014 is on the way out, because they will lose physical control of the 'Caliphate'. But.. ISIS is the latest evolution of a belief system that existed long before them and will inevitably emerge again as a global 3.0 version. I'd also bet that the eventual death of Baghdadi will clear the decks for a reunification of AQ and ISIS, plus whatever new strains emerge with Iran. post-the ISIS sectarian mess their 'fall' will precipitate in the broader communities. Do you ever think they will establish a proper caliphate? And a successful one at that, whether it be global or regional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brumerican Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 15 minutes ago, TrentVilla said: Can't have been worse than 5th Dec 94! What happened then ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted November 8, 2016 Moderator Share Posted November 8, 2016 16 minutes ago, Awol said: While we're shooting the breeze I think ISIS as we've known them since 2014 is on the way out, because they will lose physical control of the 'Caliphate'. But.. ISIS is the latest evolution of a belief system that existed long before them and will inevitably emerge again as a global 3.0 version. I'd also bet that the eventual death of Baghdadi will clear the decks for a reunification of AQ and ISIS, plus whatever new strains emerge with Iran. post-the ISIS sectarian mess their 'fall' will precipitate in the broader communities. No question re ISIS, although not yet letting out their death rattle they are a deminishing force. It would also appear that the exported threat of dispersed operatives has either been over blown or well managed by the security services. The calls for action from Baghdadi seem to be getting more desperate and less impact. When the inevitable end comes and it is nowhere near Dabiq that will hopefully put a large dent in this particular brand of Wahhabism but as you say it didn't start with ISIS and won't end with them. Out of interest what is the benefit of a reunification of ISIS and AQ? More moderate and open to dialogue? As for Baghdadi do you think he is in Mosul or that he has fled? There has been a lot about the senior men of ISIS fleeing to Eygpt.... everyone wants to see those pyramids you know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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