Popular Post Stevo985 Posted April 12 VT Supporter Popular Post Share Posted April 12 10 hours ago, HanoiVillan said: Exactly this. I'm bored of frigging 'coefficients' trying to get into a contest we'll almost certainly do quite poorly in instead of concentrating on the competition we're doing well in, and could yet win. Let's just be happy for a night! At the rate we get to this stage of European competitions, there are probably dozens reading this who won't get to see the next time. Chin up! Can’t it be both? Most people are happy with our game last night and ALSO concerned about the coefficient. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with that when it could literally decide whether we’re in the champions league next season. And I don’t agree that we might do shit in the champions league so we shouldn’t be bothered about getting into it. It would be an amazing achievement to be in the competition and it could open lots of doors for the club. It’s a huge deal, and there’s nothing wrong with wanting other English clubs to do well if it’s directly benefitting Aston Villa 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 10 hours ago, omariqy said: Right let's see where that leaves us. Germany - 16.786 England - 16.750 Scenario 1 - Probably realistic best case given what has happened 1. Man City v Real Madrid - Man City Win and go through 2. Bayern v Arsenal - Arsenal draw and go through on pens 3. Dortmund v Ath Madrid - Dortmund win the game but Ath Madrid go through on pens 4. Atalanta v Liverpool - Liverpool win the tie but go out 5. West Ham v Leverkusen - draw and West Ham out 6. Lille v Villa - Draw and Villa go through Points Totals Outlook The maximum Germany can get in this scenario is an additional 1.143 points. That is assuming Leverkusen win both Semi ties and win the final (assume they get a bonus point for winning the final). That is 18.608 points. That would mean England would need to get 0.697 or (5.576/8) points to move ahead. The lowest maximum we would get from Man City v Arsenal assuming both ties are drawn is 5 points. So we would just need Villa to draw one leg in the Semi final to go through in that scenario. Scenario 2 - Probably realistic middle to worst case given what has happened 1. Man City v Real Madrid - Man City Win and go through 2. Bayern v Arsenal - Arsenal draw and go out on pens 3. Dortmund v Ath Madrid - Dortmund win the game and go through 4. Atalanta v Liverpool - Liverpool win the tie but go out 5. West Ham v Leverkusen - Leverkusen go through by winning the second leg as well 6. Lille v Villa - Draw and Villa go through Points Totals Outlook This is where we are relying on us and Man City to get to the final and at least one of us to win it. Assume Leverkusen get to the final by drawing one leg, winning the other then win the final. Assume Dortmund lose both legs and go out. That would add 1 to their score (7 points divided by 7). Assume Bayern draw one leg against City i.e. 0.143 points. That leaves Germany on 19.037. Man City and Villa drawing one leg and winning the other adds another 1 point to ours (i.e 8 points divided by 8). So we are now on 18.661 with 2 English teams in the final. If Man City win and we lose then that is 3 points for England i.e. 0.375 points added - 19.036! We lose out by the barest of margins. I don't think there is any point doing a scenario where Bayern, Dortmund, Leverkusen all go through and only City go through from the English sides. In that scenario it's done. Just going back to this. I have assumed you get a bonus point for winning the tournament but I can't see that confirmed anywhere. Has anyone seen anything on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colhint Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 No it just says round progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rubberman Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 So now we need Arsenal to be terrible this weekend and then amazing again next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 13 minutes ago, rubberman said: So now we need Arsenal to be terrible this weekend and then amazing again next week. Its usually the opposite for our opponents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zak Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 1 hour ago, MSvillain said: The new %s are in This makes things better than they seem after last night, it's still likely (just about) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 I’d rather we finish fourth but we are very much limping over the line at the moment. We can create chances still but we look very suspect at the back and that doesn’t look like changing. Therefore, we really need Arsenal, City and Ath Madrid to do a job for us. If Liverpool and Arsenal would have won their games then that would have given us a real healthy cushion in terms of points. I don’t think Liverpool will come back from 3-0 down. They look a bit out of ideas at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulMcGrath_5 Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 2 hours ago, villa89 said: It is impossible to be confident of that. Especially in Arsenal's case. Both games are 50-50 in my mind. Yeeeaaah, that's not what impossible means. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben1505 Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 2 hours ago, MSvillain said: The new %s are in I’m amazed that England are still 2-1 favourites… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 4 minutes ago, ben1505 said: I’m amazed that England are still 2-1 favourites… Because they are assuming that Man City win the CL, Arsenal beat Bayern, and Villa win the Conference. Any one of those doesn't happen and the odds start turning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mantis Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 4 hours ago, CVByrne said: Nothing we can do now if Arsenal lose. It's over then unless Leverkusen **** up As much as you may wish that to be the case, that simply isn't true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Steve Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 I want us to win the conference so bad and we are a in strong position to make the semis. It’s in our hands still. The seeding is secondary, let's focus on our tasks first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted April 12 VT Supporter Share Posted April 12 2 hours ago, MSvillain said: The new %s are in It's 50/50 then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mantis Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 2 minutes ago, fightoffyour said: It's 50/50 then No it's 60/40 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomaszk Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 1 hour ago, omariqy said: Just going back to this. I have assumed you get a bonus point for winning the tournament but I can't see that confirmed anywhere. Has anyone seen anything on this? No bonus. You'd get 2 for winning the final in 90 or ET though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 If you gave me a choice of us losing the Semi final and getting UCL or winning the UECL and not getting UCL, then I would go for the latter. However, as @Stevo985 mentioned it seems that it may come down to us winning the UECL to get UCL as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 1 minute ago, Tomaszk said: No bonus. You'd get 2 for winning the final in 90 or ET though. Thanks. I will re-work the figures then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 12 hours ago, omariqy said: Right let's see where that leaves us. Germany - 16.786 England - 16.750 Scenario 1 - Probably realistic best case given what has happened 1. Man City v Real Madrid - Man City Win and go through 2. Bayern v Arsenal - Arsenal draw and go through on pens 3. Dortmund v Ath Madrid - Dortmund win the game but Ath Madrid go through on pens 4. Atalanta v Liverpool - Liverpool win the tie but go out 5. West Ham v Leverkusen - draw and West Ham out 6. Lille v Villa - Draw and Villa go through Points Totals Outlook The maximum Germany can get in this scenario is an additional 1.143 points. That is assuming Leverkusen win both Semi ties and win the final (assume they get a bonus point for winning the final). That is 18.608 points. That would mean England would need to get 0.697 or (5.576/8) points to move ahead. The lowest maximum we would get from Man City v Arsenal assuming both ties are drawn is 5 points. So we would just need Villa to draw one leg in the Semi final to go through in that scenario. Scenario 2 - Probably realistic middle to worst case given what has happened 1. Man City v Real Madrid - Man City Win and go through 2. Bayern v Arsenal - Arsenal draw and go out on pens 3. Dortmund v Ath Madrid - Dortmund win the game and go through 4. Atalanta v Liverpool - Liverpool win the tie but go out 5. West Ham v Leverkusen - Leverkusen go through by winning the second leg as well 6. Lille v Villa - Draw and Villa go through Points Totals Outlook This is where we are relying on us and Man City to get to the final and at least one of us to win it. Assume Leverkusen get to the final by drawing one leg, winning the other then win the final. Assume Dortmund lose both legs and go out. That would add 1 to their score (7 points divided by 7). Assume Bayern draw one leg against City i.e. 0.143 points. That leaves Germany on 19.037. Man City and Villa drawing one leg and winning the other adds another 1 point to ours (i.e 8 points divided by 8). So we are now on 18.661 with 2 English teams in the final. If Man City win and we lose then that is 3 points for England i.e. 0.375 points added - 19.036! We lose out by the barest of margins. I don't think there is any point doing a scenario where Bayern, Dortmund, Leverkusen all go through and only City go through from the English sides. In that scenario it's done. Revised outlook for Scenario 2 Levrkusen - they would add 0.857 to Germany’s score Bayern - would add 0.143 Germany new score - 18.894 England new score - 18.911 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted April 12 VT Supporter Share Posted April 12 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Tomaszk said: No bonus. You'd get 2 for winning the final in 90 or ET though. The entire association coefficient section pasted below doesn't say anything about round progression points at all: Quote D.3 Association coefficient calculation The season coefficient of an association is calculated by adding up the points obtained by all its clubs in a given season (UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League and UEFA Europa Conference League) then dividing the total by the number of clubs from that association that took part in the three UEFA club competitions in question. Points are awarded as follows: 2 points for a win (1 point for qualifying and play-off matches); 1 point for a draw (0.5 point for qualifying and play-off matches); 0 points for a defeat. If a club refuses to enter a UEFA competition for which it qualified, or is excluded from or not admitted to the competition and is not replaced by another club from the same association, the association's coefficient is calculated by dividing the total number of points obtained by its clubs by the number of clubs the association was entitled to enter according to the access list. They are only for club coefficient points, which aren't relevant here. Has everyone been working this out wrong the whole time? It's in complete contradiction to this page: Quote Association coefficient calculation The season coefficient of an association is calculated by adding up the points obtained by all its clubs in a given season in the UEFA Champions League (UCL), UEFA Europa League (UEL) and UEFA Europa Conference League (UECL) then dividing the total by the number of clubs from that association that took part in the three UEFA club competitions in question. Points are awarded as follows: 2 – All wins from group stage (UCL, UEL, UECL) 1 – All wins in qualifying and play-off matches (UCL, UEL, UECL) 1 – All draws from group stage (UCL, UEL, UECL) 0.5 – All draws in qualifying and play-off matches (UCL, UEL, UECL) 4 – Group stage bonus participation (UCL, UEL) 4 – Round of 16 bonus participation (UCL) 4 – Group winners (UEL) 2 – Group runners-up (UEL) 2 – Group winners (UECL) 1 – Group runners-up (UECL) 1 – Each round clubs reach from the round of 16 (UCL, UEL) 1 – Each round clubs reach from the semi-finals (UECL) Additional notes Penalty shoot-outs do not count. For matches originally foreseen to be two legs (home and away) but reduced to a single leg, the calculation of coefficient points per match will be adapted as follows: Three points for a win (in regular time or extra time) Two points to each team for a draw (after extra time) One point for a loss (in regular time or extra time) Edited April 12 by fightoffyour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayEm Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 If Arsenal go through it becomes a whole lot harder for the fifth spot, so I’m just focusing on that until next Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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