omariqy Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 6 minutes ago, duke313 said: CL and EL carry same weighting, ECl is less. It's 2 points for a win and 1 for a draw for all competitions. You also get 1 point for round progression. UECL didn't have this last one in previous rounds but I think from the Quarter Final stage onwards it does? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beasley14 Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 11 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said: Fair but this United team is probably the worst I can ever remember and this Villa team one of the best. It would be an extraordinary turnaround. Oh I agree 100% however Utd do have a knack (with help) of getting results they don't deserve. I am pretty confident and am really proud of Emery and the team this year but I can't relax until we're over the line. Watching sport is not good for me, I was terrible when I played and watching is worse! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zak Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 1 hour ago, rodders129 said: These opta probabilities can switch around very quickly, I wouldn’t get too secure about it tbh. It comes down to whether City and Arsenal progress I don't get what you are saying all that is baked into the odds. The odds change when circumstances change but currently there's a 70.6% chance. So if this situation happened 100 times, you'd expect Premier league to get the extra spot around 70 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zak Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 50 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: Yes, was just going to make this point. These numbers have had England at everything from nearly 90% to not much more than 50% at different stages. Ultimately the numbers have no predictive power at all. We know what actually matters, which is whether English teams - including ourselves - progress. There's no comfort in the numbers if you don't think the teams will win. I don't think it's ever got less than 60% but as per my previous message it's baking everything in and telling you how likely it is and that will be based on the English teams progressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beasley14 Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 3 hours ago, Zatman said: Spurs fans probably saying same about us and Brentford Agree both are tough games, as most prem games are. Forest unbeaten in 3 and coming off a good win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 1 minute ago, zak said: I don't think it's ever got less than 60% but as per my previous message it's baking everything in and telling you how likely it is and that will be based on the English teams progressing The point I'm making is that it gets less and less useful the fewer games and parameters there are left. The games are what matters, not the percentage. 'The horse doesn't know the odds', as they say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beasley14 Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 (edited) 9 hours ago, DakotaVilla said: This is getting silly now. We will finish a minimum of fifth. Hopefully four wins will be enough to get us fourth. If we get the extra champions league spot then that means we can fully prioritize the conference league semi finals and final which would make us huge favorites to win that trophy. A trophy and champions league qualification would be our best season since we won the European Cup and the best thing would be that we all know that Emery is just getting started. This is what I'm hoping for, 5th confirmed for CL so we can focus on trying to win ECL Edited April 5 by beasley14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPAngel Posted April 5 VT Supporter Share Posted April 5 (edited) I'd usually post some kind of chart or stat based findings about the United game last night but that game only served to showcase how utterly crap Man Utd are and that they were nowhere near this race. Despite some bedwetting within the thread, even a win wouldn't have changed a damn thing. The fact is, they are not consistent enough to compete with us or Spurs. This is a straight shootout between the two of us for 4th - enjoy it! Edited April 5 by JPAngel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 13 minutes ago, omariqy said: It's 2 points for a win and 1 for a draw for all competitions. You also get 1 point for round progression. UECL didn't have this last one in previous rounds but I think from the Quarter Final stage onwards it does? Just checked it's from the Semi Final Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVTuco Posted April 5 VT Supporter Share Posted April 5 7 minutes ago, zak said: I don't get what you are saying all that is baked into the odds. The odds change when circumstances change but currently there's a 70.6% chance. So if this situation happened 100 times, you'd expect Premier league to get the extra spot around 70 times There are so few games that a single outcome has a relatively huge impact. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 20 minutes ago, AVTuco said: With our injury list it's going to be tough. Martinez back Moreno, Digne, Torres, Carlos, Lenglet, Konsa Luiz, Tielemans, McGinn, Tim, Rogers Bailey, Diaby, Watkins (possibility), Zaniolo, Duran Looks ok to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVTuco Posted April 5 VT Supporter Share Posted April 5 Just now, nick76 said: Martinez back Moreno, Digne, Torres, Carlos, Lenglet, Konsa Luiz, Tielemans, McGinn, Tim, Rogers Bailey, Diaby, Watkins (possibility), Zaniolo, Duran Looks ok to me Unless Torres is not actually fit and who knows how long Watkins is out. Our midfield is not great without Kamara either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 (edited) 3 minutes ago, AVTuco said: Unless Torres is not actually fit and who knows how long Watkins is out. Our midfield is not great without Kamara either. Our midfield wins loads of games without Kamara. Was happening this time last year and we won three straight after the Man. United game, indeed we've won 4 of our last 7 prem matches which is fine at any stage of the season. Kamara is good of course but to me Luiz is the one we couldn't afford to be without for months this season and thankfully that hasn't happened. Edited April 5 by VillaChris 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 basically Champions League bonus points 4 - Group stage participation 5 - Round of 16 1 - QF, SF, final Europa League bonus points 4 - Group winners 2 - Group runners-up 1 - Round of 16, QF, SF, final Europa Conference League bonus points 2 - Group winners 1 - Group runners-up 1 - SF, final Germany MAXIMUM POSSIBLE COEFFICIENT SCORE: 21.214 England MAXIMUM POSSIBLE COEFFICIENT SCORE: 22.500 but there are a lot of permutations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 14 minutes ago, nick76 said: Martinez back Moreno, Digne, Torres, Carlos, Lenglet, Konsa Luiz, Tielemans, McGinn, Tim, Rogers Bailey, Diaby, Watkins (possibility), Zaniolo, Duran Looks ok to me Wasnt Ramsey also suppposed return this week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 Am I correct in saying that if Luiz gets booked on Saturday he's suspended for Arsenal, but if he doesn't it's reset for the rest of season? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedClaretAndBlue Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 1 minute ago, duke313 said: Am I correct in saying that if Luiz gets booked on Saturday he's suspended for Arsenal, but if he doesn't it's reset for the rest of season? Correct except he’d miss 2 games for 10 yellows, not just Arsenal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 1 minute ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said: Correct except he’d miss 2 games for 10 yellows, not just Arsenal Oh! that's dangerous. Hope he's a good boy on Saturday, could probably get by without him for Arsenal, but need him for Bournemouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKP90 Posted April 5 VT Supporter Share Posted April 5 I must admit I've not really looked with any detail into this coefficient thing. When will we actually know about the 5th spot? or will it be calculated after the last ball is kicked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 16 minutes ago, AVTuco said: Unless Torres is not actually fit and who knows how long Watkins is out. Our midfield is not great without Kamara either. Torres - Emery was resting Watkins - Emery said after the game he was checking his fitness for the weekend on Thursday which suggests he’s close even if he misses Brentford. Midfield - they haven’t done too badly since Kamara was ruled out. Obviously better with him in but not been as bad as many expected plus we have JJ back shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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