HeyAnty Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 12 hours ago, CVByrne said: Spurs deserve it. We had our chances to show our worth when the heat was on. We failed, completely and repeatedly so and we should accept the consolation prize we end up with. Spurs not playing for 2 weeks and us playing just over 2 days prior was the main reason. Big Ange even said after game he could see Villa tiring before halftime. Under Emey we rarely fail to play bad/get result after having a bad game before. One thing i trust, we will be alot better v weatham, who also play Thurs night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Looks like English teams would have to completely screw up for us not to get the 5th extra spot…the amount of combinations that we still get it Quote How can England secure extra Champions League spot? Let's start with basics: At the end of the season, the two best nations on a one-season Country Ranking will get an additional Champions League spot. At the moment, Italy and Germany are holding these spots, with England in 3rd and France in 4th place. Spain in 5th, Czechia in 6th, and all the nations below are already out of this race. Italian clubs have been rather strong, and with 1.000 points added this week, they are now up to 16.571 points, which is giving Italy around 97% chances to secure an extra Champions League spot. With the elimination of Lazio, Italy lost its first club, but six of them are still alive. After the elimination of Leipzig, Germany is now down to four clubs, but its position improved significantly as Freiburg defeated direct rival West Ham last night. Germany also added 1.000 points this week, and they are now up to 15.500 points. Still, though Germany is 0.875 points ahead of England, they are given only 30% chances to secure an extra Champions League spot. The main reason is that Germany is already down to four clubs, and none of them are main favourites to win the competitions they are playing in. On the other hand, England is third with 14.625 points, but their clubs are still main favourites to win all three European competitions (UCL: Man City, UEL: Liverpool, UECL: Aston Villa), so it's not surprising that they are given around 65% chances to secure that extra Champions League spot. Of course, securing that spot would mean that the team which enters 5th in the league would enter the Champions League directly. Only in France, the 4th placed team would enter directly, with the 5th entering qualifiers. But, with 8% chances given, France are still far from this race. When it comes to the magic number of points won, basic calculation is that 19.000 will be enough, though according to current projections, even less than that (especially if Italian clubs continue to have great results) should be enough to secure extra Champions League spot. So, let's see how six English clubs can move England from the current 14.625 to the magic number of 19.000? Team No. 1 - West Ham: - There are a lot of opinions that England will lose an extra spot if West Ham get eliminated by direct rival Freiburg. Well, that is not correct. So, let's start by assuming that West Ham will indeed get eliminated by Freiburg, after a home draw. Points won by West Ham: 1; Points for England: +0.125 England going from 14.625 to 14.750 Team No. 2 - Brighton: - Brighton suffered an awful defeat by AS Roma last night, so it's certain that they will be eliminated in the second leg. Let's assume that they will as well get eliminated after a home draw, though this might be a good chance for Brighton to get eliminated after a home win. Points won by Brighton: 1; Points for England: +0.125 England going from 14.750 to 14.875 Team No. 3 - Arsenal - Despite some assumptions, Arsenal being eliminated wouldn't be the end of England either. Still, they are rather big favourites to defeat Porto in the second leg and reach the Champions League Quarterfinals. Let's assume that Arsenal will do that, but they might struggle in the Quarterfinals, so let's predict that they will get eliminated in Quarterfinals after a draw and defeat. Points won by Arsenal: 4, Points for England: +0.500 England going from 14.875 to 15.375 Team No. 4 - Aston Villa - Aston Villa didn't defeat Ajax last night, but they are still big favourites to win in the second leg and go through. Actually, Aston Villa are still the biggest favourite to win the Europa Conference League, so let's assume that they will reach the finals with a draw and a win in both Quarterfinals and Semifinals, and that they will lose in the Finals. Points won by Aston Villa: 10, Points for England: +1.250 England going from 15.375 to 16.625 Team No. 5 - Liverpool - Liverpool were great last night, and it's hard to see that they won't win in the second leg as well. They are also the first favourite to win the Europa League, but let's assume that they will lose in the Finals, after going through the Quarterfinals and Semifinals with a win and a draw. Points won by Liverpool: 11, Points for England: +1.375 England going from 16.625 to 18.000 Team No. 6 - Manchester City - Manchester City secured Quarterfinals this week, and they look rather strong, so it's safe to assume that they will once again reach the Champions League Finals. Still, let's say that they will do that with a win and a draw in both Quarterfinals and Semifinals, and that they will lose in the Finals. Points won by Man City: 8, Points for England: +1.000 England going from 18.000 to 19.000! So, with early elimination of Brighton and West Ham, with the Quarterfinals elimination of Arsenal, with Finals defeats for all of Aston Villa, Liverpool and Manchester City, England would still secure around 19.000 points, which would be enough for an extra Champions League spot. Good thing about this analysis is that it shows that, as less than 19.000 points should be enough, even Arsenal losing to Porto shouldn't stop England if Aston Villa, Liverpool and Man City reach the finals. As well, with Arsenal going through, an early elimination of Aston Villa wouldn't be decisive. As we confirmed above, assumptions are that England need three teams to reach the Finals in order to secure that extra Champions League spot, but it's likely that even less than that will be needed if other clubs do more than projected, or if German clubs face early eliminations. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 12 hours ago, CVByrne said: Spurs deserve it. We had our chances to show our worth when the heat was on. We failed, completely and repeatedly so and we should accept the consolation prize we end up with. Bizarre! We are still 4th! They still have to win their game in hand to take that from us which is far from a given. Spurs have screwed up just as much as us this season hence why that are about the same points as us. To say what you have said in the final sentence is not true otherwise we wouldn’t be where we are in the league, we are doing incredibly well this season and like most teams at this end of the table have won some of the big battles and lost some. Spurs no more deserves it than we do, in fact we’ve done it while competing in Europe as well which has put extra strain on us so in fact we deserve it more by that logic. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterSw Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Spurs are probably favourites for 4th given that they are fresher than us but their game in hand is away to Chelsea who have picked up a bit of late. That won't be an easy game for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post JPAngel Posted March 12 VT Supporter Popular Post Share Posted March 12 Some of our results this season have been absolutely abysmal and will cost us a top 4 place. Villa 1 - 2 Wolves Everton 2 - 2 Villa Brighton 4 - 2 Villa Villa 1 - 2 West Ham Wolves 2 - 1 Villa Villa 1 - 4 Chelsea Oh wait... no... Those are all Spurs results from the last 5 months. Silly me, I'd forgotten it wasn't just Villa that have bad weeks 13 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Still a long way to go. We’ve got two winnable games coming up and we don’t need this negativity. It’s going to be tough without McGinn no doubt. If we can somehow pick up 4 points from these next 3 games then that will put is in a decent position with McGinn and Ramsey both being back. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 36 minutes ago, omariqy said: Still a long way to go. We’ve got two winnable games coming up and we don’t need this negativity. It’s going to be tough without McGinn no doubt. If we can somehow pick up 4 points from these next 3 games then that will put is in a decent position with McGinn and Ramsey both being back. Both teams have similar games left this season. Spurs have to go to West Ham, Liverpool and Newcastle with City and Arsenal at home Plus the game in hand is away at Chelsea, would be like us having a game in hand at Old Trafford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 1 minute ago, Zatman said: Both teams have similar games left this season. Spurs have to go to West Ham, Liverpool and Newcastle with City and Arsenal at home Plus the game in hand is away at Chelsea, would be like us having a game in hand at Old Trafford Yup. Their easiest two games are their last two games. We need to have a cushion of 3 points at least at that stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wainy316 Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 (edited) Should we replace the word 'Villa' in all of our chants on Thursday with 'coefficient'? Edited March 12 by Wainy316 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GingerCollins29 Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 5 wins from the next 10. I'd say realistically defeats against city, liverpool and arsenal. So 5 wins from 7. Brentford and bournemouth at home - our best chance of wins against two poor sides at home. So, wolves (h) - on paper, should win but they are a bogey team for us. Brighton (a) - seem to do well vs brighton but they are a very good side on thrir day West ham (a) - with their form, have to absolitely be looking for 3 points here. Palace (a) - again targeting for 3 points but has been a toigh groind for us. Chelsea (h) - what kind of villa will turn up, what kind of chelsea? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Just looked at Man Utd fixtures. They are pretty tough. Next 3 are Brentford, Chelsea away and Liverpool at home. They’ve only really got Burnley at home which is a banker. The rest are pretty difficult. If I was to guess and be really optimistic for them. Brentford (a) - W Chelsea (a) - D Liverpool (h) - D Bournemouth (a) - W Newcastle (h) - W Burnley (h) - W Palace (a) - W Arsenal (h) - D Brighton (a) - D That would be 19 points for them on the uber optimistic side I would say. That would put them on 66 points. We would only need 11/12 points therefore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 26 minutes ago, GingerCollins29 said: 5 wins from the next 10. I'd say realistically defeats against city, liverpool and arsenal. So 5 wins from 7. Brentford and bournemouth at home - our best chance of wins against two poor sides at home. So, wolves (h) - on paper, should win but they are a bogey team for us. Brighton (a) - seem to do well vs brighton but they are a very good side on thrir day West ham (a) - with their form, have to absolitely be looking for 3 points here. Palace (a) - again targeting for 3 points but has been a toigh groind for us. Chelsea (h) - what kind of villa will turn up, what kind of chelsea? Despite our form and injuries, it's just really hard for me not to see 15 points somewhere here. But to true Villa style, we will probably leave it late for Palace. 6 minutes ago, omariqy said: Just looked at Man Utd fixtures. They are pretty tough. Next 3 are Brentford, Chelsea away and Liverpool at home. They’ve only really got Burnley at home which is a banker. The rest are pretty difficult. If I was to guess and be really optimistic for them. Brentford (a) - W Chelsea (a) - D Liverpool (h) - D Bournemouth (a) - W Newcastle (h) - W Burnley (h) - W Palace (a) - W Arsenal (h) - D Brighton (a) - D That would be 19 points for them on the uber optimistic side I would say. That would put them on 66 points. We would only need 11/12 points therefore. Agree largely with this. And even that would be incredibly optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 We lost both league games vs Man Utd, haven't we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 On 10/03/2024 at 17:18, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said: Just realised Spurs have Newcastle, Arsenal, City and Liverpool in the run in still to play. and we have Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal.......not to mention Wolves. It's all about form and application. We can beat anyone, and lose to anyone, that's the way we are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imavillan Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 6 hours ago, nick76 said: Looks like English teams would have to completely screw up for us not to get the 5th extra spot…the amount of combinations that we still get it thanks, it's an interesting read......but, there are still far too many if's but's and maybes at the moment. All we can do is rack as many points up as possible from the remaining games and see where that takes us. Hopefully to where most on this forum want us to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyblade Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 You would think we were Fergie's Man Utd the way our fans can't seem to take a loss, instead of a team that has a losing record and a negative goal difference over the last 20 years. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Am I right in saying this season (or maybe since Unai took over) Villa haven’t won more than 3 in a row but also haven’t lost more than 3 in a row either ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said: Am I right in saying this season (or maybe since Unai took over) Villa haven’t won more than 3 in a row but also haven’t lost more than 3 in a row either ? We won 5 last season: Bournemouth Chelsea Leicester Forest Newcastle. We only lost 3 last season: Leicester City Arsenal Edited March 12 by TRO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Zatman Posted March 12 Popular Post Share Posted March 12 24 minutes ago, Keyblade said: You would think we were Fergie's Man Utd the way our fans can't seem to take a loss, instead of a team that has a losing record and a negative goal difference over the last 20 years. Mentality of some fans is shocking especially as some have built it into the head that this is our only ever shot at Champions League. If we dont get it we are never getting closer again, its bizarre A sense of entitlement we have absolutely no reason to have 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 21 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said: Am I right in saying this season (or maybe since Unai took over) Villa haven’t won more than 3 in a row but also haven’t lost more than 3 in a row either ? This year I don’t think we have lost 2 in a row in the league. That could change on Sunday of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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