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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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That's it 5th minimum secured after today, no way they get 12 points more than us before the end of the season, pretty sure that makes this our best season for 30 years.

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Very back of fag packet predictions, but I think we need 16 points for 4th. 71 points should be enough. 

If England gets top 5 for CL, then it'll be a bit lower, but can we bank on that?

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Just now, Xela said:

Very back of fag packet predictions, but I think we need 16 points for 4th. 71 points should be enough. 

If England gets top 5 for CL, then it'll be a bit lower, but can we bank on that?

70 seems to be a guarantee of 4th in recent years. It probably will be enough this year unless Spurs hit an incredible winning streak

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1 minute ago, Xela said:

Very back of fag packet predictions, but I think we need 16 points for 4th. 71 points should be enough. 

If England gets top 5 for CL, then it'll be a bit lower, but can we bank on that?

Guess we'll find out a lot more on this after the next round of CL/EL/UCL in the next couple of weeks.

Would be nice to be able to go all out for the UCL knowing that the league is almost done and dusted. Imagine a trophy and CL qualification in one season!

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4 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

If we play as bad as United did today against City I'll be embarrassed 

I don't mind losing as long as we don't get a hammering off them or Arsenal.

Spurs could get a big win from Burnley or Luton at home or Sheffield United away on final day so could be an awkward ending if we're two points clear and just playing for a draw and they go 2 or 3 up early.

We are more than capable of winning at least five of our last 11 though, probably more so just got to go out and achieve it.

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31 minutes ago, Xela said:

 

So Betfair have us as 53% chance of top 4.

So if we've a 91.6% chance we end top 5 means 38.6% chance we end 5th. 

So if there's an 82% chance 5th is CL then there's a 31.5% we end 5th and it's CL qualification

So we've a 53% chance if coming 4th, 31.5% chance of coming 5th and it being CL.

So 84.5% chance we get Champions League

So that's odds of 1/5 for us to be in CL or 11/2 bet that we wouldn't be.

Edited by CVByrne
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24 minutes ago, Zatman said:

70 seems to be a guarantee of 4th in recent years. It probably will be enough this year unless Spurs hit an incredible winning streak

If Spurs continue on their current points per game (1.92), they will end up with 73 points, so more business as usual and not incredible winning streak.

If we continue as we have done so far, we will end up with 77 points.

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Just personally I don't think points totals are that helpful to think about now -- we're in a race with Spurs for that fourth place spot, everyone else is pretty much irrelevant. We basically just need to match their results, and as the above @viivvaa66 points their current trajectory is only slightly shallower than ours.

In short it's going to be a long hard slog to the end of the season as I don't see Spurs letting up too many points now.

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