StefanAVFC Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 (edited) Bears repeating, that throughout our poor form, coinciding with United's excellent form, they've gained 3 points on us. 5 points sounds like nothing but it's a really hard gap to overhaul, especially at the top of the table where teams are more likely to win than not. EDIT: Corrected 1 point to 3 points Edited February 14 by StefanAVFC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spiezels Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 United have got same 3 teams as us coming up too, luton, forest and fulham! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen_Evans Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, StefanAVFC said: Bears repeating, that throughout our poor form, coinciding with United's excellent form, they've gained 1 point on us. 5 points sounds like nothing but it's a really hard gap to overhaul, especially at the top of the table where teams are more likely to win than not. Don’t forget though that depending on how we did in the last game and the optimism levels of the fanbase, we are either going to win every game for the next year or lose 25 times on the spin. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 By the same token: Our gaps to other teams from the Arsenal game to now Newcastle: 9 -> 10 West Ham: 11 -> 10 Brighton: 9 -> 11 Spurs: +8 -> -1 The big winners of our drop off is Spurs. The others have either barely made up any ground or even fallen further back. The teams above us have also opened up a gap. The teams below us have barely had any impact. In our bad spell, we've gained 1.375 PPG. United are also 18 goals behind, so it's essentially 6 points. If we maintain that (ergo maintain our bad form) United would need to maintain around 1.45 PPG to overtake us. If we improve to 1.5 PPG (so 21 points, 7 more wins from 14, or 6 wins, 3 draws) then United would need almost 2 PPG to overtake us. That would mean winning 9 out of the remaining 14 games. That includes trips to Man City and Chelsea, as well as home games to Newcastle, Arsenal and Liverpool. If they do that, they deserve to qualify for the CL at our expense tbh. This is only taking into account us vs United for 5th. We are also very capable of going on a decent run, taking around 1.75 PPG and finishing 4th. td;tr, yes, it's annoying we lost to United but we're still in an insanely strong position. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyblade Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 12/02/2024 at 14:28, Stevo985 said: After we beat Arsenal, Man Utd were 8 points behind us. Now they’re 5 points behind us. All of that poor form, all of these shit games, and they’ve caught up 3 points. And that’s because they fluked a result against us last night Dont underestimate how difficult it will be to overtake us Amazingly, they beat us twice since then and still only gained 3 points on us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 (edited) Sorry to beat this to death, but I would say we need that 1.5 PPG to confirm 5th. And around 1.75 to be back in contention for 4th. 1.5 PPG = 19/20 points 1.75 PPG = 24/25 points 19/20 points = 5 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses / 6 wins, 1/2 draws, 6/7 losses / 7 wins, 7 losses 24/25 points = 6 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses / 7 wins, 3/4 draws, 3/4 losses Simply put, almost regardless of the teams below us, if we win 6 more games, we've pretty much got 5th (assuming we draw 1 or 2 more games in that run) If we win 7 more games, 4th is in play. If we win 8 more, 4th is very likely. Fixtures: Fulham Forest Luton Spurs West Ham Wolves City Brentford Arsenal Bournemouth Chelsea Brighton Liverpool Palace If we can't win 6 of them, we don't deserve it. Simple as that. Edited February 14 by StefanAVFC 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, StefanAVFC said: Sorry to beat this to death, but I would say we need that 1.5 PPG to confirm 5th. And around 1.75 to be back in contention for 4th. 1.5 PPG = 19/20 points 1.75 PPG = 24/25 points 19/20 points = 5 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses / 6 wins, 1/2 draws, 6/7 losses / 7 wins, 7 losses 24/25 points = 6 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses / 7 wins, 3/4 draws, 3/4 losses Simply put, if we win 6 more games, we've pretty much got 5th (assuming we draw 1 or 2 more games in that run) If we win 7 more games, 4th is in play. If we win 8 more, 4th is very likely. Fixtures: Fulham Forest Luton Spurs West Ham Wolves City Brentford Arsenal Bournemouth Chelsea Brighton Liverpool Palace If we can't win 6 of them, we don't deserve it. Simple as that. Fixtures: Fulham Forest Luton Spurs West Ham Wolves City Brentford Arsenal Bournemouth Chelsea Brighton Liverpool Palace On paper - that's 6 wins that I would wholeheartedly expect, with the toughest one for me being Luton away. When you view it like this - if we can take 6 wins off these lot - 3 home and 3 away, then we have to battle our way through 2-3 wins from top half opponents. The numbers are on our side - we just have to make it happen. The last time we dropped points at home to a bottom half team was Leicester. If we can't get 2 wins from 8 matches against top half opponents, then we don't deserve 4th either. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichW Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 8 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said: Sorry to beat this to death, but I would say we need that 1.5 PPG to confirm 5th. And around 1.75 to be back in contention for 4th. 1.5 PPG = 19/20 points 1.75 PPG = 24/25 points 19/20 points = 5 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses / 6 wins, 1/2 draws, 6/7 losses / 7 wins, 7 losses 24/25 points = 6 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses / 7 wins, 3/4 draws, 3/4 losses Simply put, almost regardless of the teams below us, if we win 6 more games, we've pretty much got 5th (assuming we draw 1 or 2 more games in that run) If we win 7 more games, 4th is in play. If we win 8 more, 4th is very likely. Fixtures: Fulham Forest Luton Spurs West Ham Wolves City Brentford Arsenal Bournemouth Chelsea Brighton Liverpool Palace If we can't win 6 of them, we don't deserve it. Simple as that. If I had to make an attempt at predicting the rest of the season this is what I think it would be. Only one I've left is the Palace game because it will be dependant on what sort of result we/Palace need going into the game. Spurs/West Ham games back-to-back are key I feel, even if we could win one of those it would help us a lot (preferably the Spurs game). Forest, Wolves, Brentford, Bournemouth and Chelsea are home games I feel we should be winning (I know Chelsea just beat us comfortably but I back Emery not to make the same mistake twice). Don't see us picking up anything away to Man City, Arsenal, Brighton (will probably want to owe us one for the 6-1) and Liverpool usually beat us at Villa Park. Anything in those games are a bonus to me. If football was predictable we'd all be rich so it will no doubt be a case we drop points unexpectedly but pick up points elsewhere. 21 points going into the Palace game could have us top 5 sealed before the last game right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 (edited) 4 minutes ago, RichW said: If I had to make an attempt at predicting the rest of the season this is what I think it would be. Only one I've left is the Palace game because it will be dependant on what sort of result we/Palace need going into the game. Spurs/West Ham games back-to-back are key I feel, even if we could win one of those it would help us a lot (preferably the Spurs game). Forest, Wolves, Brentford, Bournemouth and Chelsea are home games I feel we should be winning (I know Chelsea just beat us comfortably but I back Emery not to make the same mistake twice). Don't see us picking up anything away to Man City, Arsenal, Brighton (will probably want to owe us one for the 6-1) and Liverpool usually beat us at Villa Park. Anything in those games are a bonus to me. If football was predictable we'd all be rich so it will no doubt be a case we drop points unexpectedly but pick up points elsewhere. 21 points going into the Palace game could have us top 5 sealed before the last game right? 21 points should be enough for 5th, assuming United don't win another 9 games. And if they win 8, they'd need to get another 3 draws. I don't see them getting 27 from their remaining fixtures anyway. Edited February 14 by StefanAVFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, RichW said: If I had to make an attempt at predicting the rest of the season this is what I think it would be. Only one I've left is the Palace game because it will be dependant on what sort of result we/Palace need going into the game. Spurs/West Ham games back-to-back are key I feel, even if we could win one of those it would help us a lot (preferably the Spurs game). Forest, Wolves, Brentford, Bournemouth and Chelsea are home games I feel we should be winning (I know Chelsea just beat us comfortably but I back Emery not to make the same mistake twice). Don't see us picking up anything away to Man City, Arsenal, Brighton (will probably want to owe us one for the 6-1) and Liverpool usually beat us at Villa Park. Anything in those games are a bonus to me. If football was predictable we'd all be rich so it will no doubt be a case we drop points unexpectedly but pick up points elsewhere. 21 points going into the Palace game could have us top 5 sealed before the last game right? I'd swap West Ham a win and a Wolves draw considering we can't manage to beat the stupid dog heads. Would feel amazing if we could get one over Wolves at a crucial time for once though. I think De Zerbi can't help but play his way against us and that plays into our hands. They lack that vertical threat that has killed us against Newcastle/Liverpool and I back our players against them. Really - it all boils down to winning games we should be winning and being competitive in the tough ones. It's hard not to feel pessimistic with form and injuries but a couple key returns at the right time and any one of our non Leon Bailey players catching fire will get us over the line and re-tool in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichW Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said: 21 points should be enough for 5th, assuming United don't win another 9 games. And if they win 8, they'd need to get another 3 draws. I don't see them getting 27 from their remaining fixtures anyway. Looking at their fixtures and I feel like I am being generous with some of the wins. More then capable of dropping points against Luton, Fulham, Palace and losing to Brentford, Chelsea and Bournemouth. Plus they will have some mid-week games the further they go in the FA cup. Luton - W Fulham - W Man City - L Everton - W Sheff Utd - W Brentford - D Chelsea - D Liverpool - L Bournemouth - D Newcastle - D Burnley - W Palace - W Arsenal - L Brighton - L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichW Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, DJBOB said: I'd swap West Ham a win and a Wolves draw considering we can't manage to beat the stupid dog heads. Would feel amazing if we could get one over Wolves at a crucial time for once though. I think De Zerbi can't help but play his way against us and that plays into our hands. They lack that vertical threat that has killed us against Newcastle/Liverpool and I back our players against them. Really - it all boils down to winning games we should be winning and being competitive in the tough ones. It's hard not to feel pessimistic with form and injuries but a couple key returns at the right time and any one of our non Leon Bailey players catching fire will get us over the line and re-tool in the summer. I thought the same before we played West Ham and put them to the sword. Cunha ruled out for the season by the looks of it so they are a striker down who has just hit form. They need Neto to stay injury free for the rest of the season. Got to factor in once the league table hits 30-32 games - some of these mid-table sides will start to see the beach in the distance. Can't qualify for Europe and not going to go down. Of course this works for Spurs/Man Utd aswell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Follyfoot Posted February 14 VT Supporter Share Posted February 14 40 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said: Sorry to beat this to death, but I would say we need that 1.5 PPG to confirm 5th. And around 1.75 to be back in contention for 4th. 1.5 PPG = 19/20 points 1.75 PPG = 24/25 points 19/20 points = 5 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses / 6 wins, 1/2 draws, 6/7 losses / 7 wins, 7 losses 24/25 points = 6 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses / 7 wins, 3/4 draws, 3/4 losses Simply put, almost regardless of the teams below us, if we win 6 more games, we've pretty much got 5th (assuming we draw 1 or 2 more games in that run) If we win 7 more games, 4th is in play. If we win 8 more, 4th is very likely. Fixtures: Fulham Forest Luton Spurs West Ham Wolves City Brentford Arsenal Bournemouth Chelsea Brighton Liverpool Palace If we can't win 6 of them, we don't deserve it. Simple as that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, RichW said: I thought the same before we played West Ham and put them to the sword. Cunha ruled out for the season by the looks of it so they are a striker down who has just hit form. They need Neto to stay injury free for the rest of the season. Got to factor in once the league table hits 30-32 games - some of these mid-table sides will start to see the beach in the distance. Can't qualify for Europe and not going to go down. Of course this works for Spurs/Man Utd aswell. Yeah - somewhat fortuitous that Palace away is the last match. Not a far travel distance for us and they will surely be at the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomaszk Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Oh good Diego injured as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVilla Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Tomaszk said: Oh good Diego injured as well. Not much of a loss, been playing like a pissed up pub player recently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WallisFrizz Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Tomaszk said: Oh good Diego injured as well. It’s completely ridiculous at this point. I actually feel pretty sorry for the coaching staff and players that all the hard work they’ve put in this season might count for nothing (or much less than was hoped)because of some freakish levels of bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rubberman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 With no defence left, we'll just have to go all Keegan all-out attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVTuco Posted February 14 VT Supporter Share Posted February 14 5 hours ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said: Well the supercomputer still believes in us, so who are you?! " The prediction has tipped VIlla to amass 68 (67.8 points) after their 38 games. This will be enough to finish ahead of fifth-placed Tottenham Hotspur who have 67 (67.2) points as their final predicted total. " https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/supercomputer-predicts-aston-villa-final-28628042 That settles it then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mic09 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, rubberman said: With no defence left, we'll just have to go all Keegan all-out attack. Absolutely, it's a good job our tactics don't depend on playing out from the back slowly to suck in opposition... Oh wait a minute 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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