abdulaziz1 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Zhan_Zhuang said: Quite some negativity in here, get positive. Villa have an elite manager in Emery who wants to find a solution to our home form. We have three winnable games coming up, although Wet Spam away might be tricky. Seven points from three games may put us top seven. Villa also have to play Brentford, Fulham and Brighton; winning all three and maintaining our form I think would likely put us seventh. It is very much on as far as I'm concerned. Emery being super-positive will also be aiming for top seven. Everything below Spurs is important to us. Newcastle could go in a bad form, we shall hope that the gap reduces with everyone, then look what can happen in the last couple of games which are mostly 6 pointers. Liverpool and Newcastle could be misleading as they’re a game less. But Newcastle losing today make 7th as a European spot. Still the FA Cup but City is still there so let’s hope they get it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomsky_11 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 6 hours ago, VillaChris said: I always find with these sorts of points hauls that predictors barely give teams in the bottom six anything when looking at games. I mean you must have Liverpool basically beating every single bottom half team left if you've got them on 67 points!! They lost to Forest and Leeds back to back before the world cup break. Not sure Newcastle will get anywhere near 64 points either considering they've still got homes left v Spurs, Man. United and Arsenal and Man. City away next. 53 points will be a good final tally for us, think we'll be higher than 10th with that aswell. I haven't done this via a predictor site or anything. Because I'm really cool I've a spreadsheet that looks a like this... ... which covers just the games for teams 4th to 11th. Makes it a bit easier to take into account previous results and home/away form when predicting, whereas I agree with you using some of the more common predictor sites where you click through by gameweek its harder to factor these things in. On Liverpool: - 7 games left against the teams below us. I've got them winning the two at home plus Saints and Bournemouth away. The other 3 are draws. - I've got them getting 3 points more than their current away form ppg, which given they play teams 2nd, 10th, 14th, 16th, 17th, 18th and 20th in ppg for the season in remaining away games, doesn't seem unreasonable - I've also got a 3-4 point uplift on their current home form, which is maybe a bit much given their home form is already 2.2ppg with only one lost all season. Even if they only maintain current form here they are still competing for 4th imo. - I don't think I had them as high as 67 points when I did the predictions four games ago, so they've already gained more points than I expected from those fixtures. On Newcastle: - I did feel I may have slightly overestimated them, but then they just haven't lost many games. - On the four fixtures you mention, I've got them beating Spurs at home (they beat them away, so why not), draw vs. Utd (same as away game), and losses to City and Arsenal. - I've actually only got them getting 5 more wins this season, then a lot more draws. On us, after Chelsea result today, our 53 points now gets us ahead of them into 9th, so there we go! Btw here's how my predicted ppg of remaining fixtures compares to the season to date ppg of each team: So Newcastle hitting 64 is a reasonable drop off for them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rubberman Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 No way we're getting 7th. Probably 11th, maybe 10th and highly unlikely 9th. Brighton, Brentford and Liverpool all have 4/5 points on us, better gd and games in hand. We can fight it out with Chelsea (and hope they keep Potter) and pray the one of the teams above collapses, but anything better is for the birds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 I think Fulham and Brentford are performing too well. Hopefully one of them falters and we can get top 10. I am still after a ppg under Emery that has us in top 7 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomsky_11 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 22 minutes ago, rubberman said: No way we're getting 7th. Probably 11th, maybe 10th and highly unlikely 9th. Brighton, Brentford and Liverpool all have 4/5 points on us, better gd and games in hand. We can fight it out with Chelsea (and hope they keep Potter) and pray the one of the teams above collapses, but anything better is for the birds. Agree it'll be a push to catch Brighton. And Liverpool I expect to pull away and maybe get 4th. But Brentford and Fulham are definitely catchable IMO, while Chelsea still look bad and are running out of games before a very difficult finish to the season for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Yep Brentford and Fulham are the two to try and catch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 15 hours ago, abdulaziz1 said: Everything below Spurs is important to us. Newcastle could go in a bad form, we shall hope that the gap reduces with everyone, then look what can happen in the last couple of games which are mostly 6 pointers. Liverpool and Newcastle could be misleading as they’re a game less. But Newcastle losing today make 7th as a European spot. Still the FA Cup but City is still there so let’s hope they get it. Formula is simple. Beat Palace and Newcastle lose at Man. City and gap is 7 points so with 14 games to play it's still very possible. We'd need to beat them at VP and for them to not win many of their home games left but their form leading up to the final wasn't really good at all so they have a feel of Leicester/West Ham in last three seasons, very good up to end of Jan and then form really dips for final three months of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, ender4 said: Yep Brentford and Fulham are the two to try and catch. They're playing each other on Monday. Really really need to beat Palace and then see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delphinho123 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 We probably need to win 3 of the next 4 to have even an outside chance. Personally, 10th would be a fantastic finish given the situation we were in when Emery took charge and the quality of the squad. I think we'll finish 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said: I think we'll finish 12th. Not 11th? You think we're going to get worse rather than staying the same or getting better? I assume you think Crystal Palace will be the team to overtake us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delphinho123 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, ender4 said: Not 11th? You think we're going to get worse rather than staying the same or getting better? I assume you think Crystal Palace will be the team to overtake us? Not sure yet. Haven't made my mind up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermon Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Still 11th ergghh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 We've scored in 12 straight league games now. That's pretty impressive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 5 more wins and a draw to get to 50 points. Do that and take things from there if there's still 4-5 games left. Kamara injury could kill all this though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Albrighton Posted March 4, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted March 4, 2023 (edited) Feels like a bit of an echo of the 20/21 season, but in reverse - kinda. Bit of a gap now between 11th and 12th, with 11th and the five or so teams separated by a handful of points. Wolves are as close to us as we are to Newcastle. The reversed element is that the start of the season in 20/21 was good, then not so good. Hopefully we finish as strongly this season as we started that season. Edited March 4, 2023 by Mark Albrighton 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abdulaziz1 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Not the best time for the Kamara injury, the team is grinding results. Hopefully we can go through in the next couple games. Just play each game as a cup final. Later on we have couple of 6 pointers. We still have to play Chelsea, Brentford, Fulham, Newcastle, Liverpool and end with Brighton. So just reduce the gap, give ourselves a chance and see where it takes us. Newcastle losing was good, we hoped for a Brighton/Chelsea loss. But let’s hope West Ham losing damages some of their confidence and we can beat them. A draw between Brentford and Fulham could be really good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 5 points away from 6th. 7 points away from 5th. West Ham and Bournemouth to play next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marka Ragnos Posted March 4, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted March 4, 2023 (edited) All I want is for us to get to Europe. Just like ... West Ham? I always forget that you can get to Europe and then suck. Edited March 4, 2023 by Marka Ragnos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVilla Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 (edited) We will struggle to get top 10 now if Kamara is out for any long length of time he's critical to how we play. Deaddonkey and Chambers are not good enough i'm afraid. Edited March 4, 2023 by AshVilla 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 6 hours ago, Mark Albrighton said: Feels like a bit of an echo of the 20/21 season, but in reverse - kinda. Bit of a gap now between 11th and 12th, with 11th and the five or so teams separated by a handful of points. Wolves are as close to us as we are to Newcastle. The reversed element is that the start of the season in 20/21 was good, then not so good. Hopefully we finish as strongly this season as we started that season. Bournemouth home, Forest home, Leicester away, Brentford away. Those are four matches I think we can/will win in similar manner to today and last week. No frills but defensively solid (we certainly won't be passing around our 18 yard box away to Leicester after what happened at VP). Brentford won't have Toney when we go there. Then you have the 50/50 games v West Ham, Wolves, Fulham that really could go either way. Then the 40/60 games at home to Newcastle and Spurs where we could win but probably won't if those teams are at full strength. And Liverpool, Chelsea and Man. United away majority would gladly take a point as will be backs to the wall. I think at this point 5 wins and 3/4 draws is about par and will get us to 53/55 points. Six wins or over and it will get very exciting for the closing weeks. Would be a very exciting final day if we went into it two points off Brighton as I think they're certs to finish in the top 6 based on their quality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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