Brighton

[The_Steve]

Just three league goals scored since March.

[DCJonah]

24 minutes ago, HongKongVillan said:

You know what's with team in shit form and who best to play against?

I still worry we're that team.

We nearly did it for Jackson yesterday. 

[DakotaVilla]

21 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

I still worry we're that team.

We nearly did it for Jackson yesterday. 

And he was still shit so what does that prove?

[DCJonah]

8 minutes ago, DakotaVilla said:

And he was still shit so what does that prove?

Nothing. 

Just my worry. 

[foreveryoung]

We have Brightons number. They find it hard to play against our system.

[VillaChris]

Just now, foreveryoung said:

We have Brightons number. They find it hard to play against our system.

Yep record v them since coming up is played 11, won 6, drawn 4 and lost 1. Scored 18 in those games and conceded 7 so we're even more of a bogey team to them than Wolves and West Ham are to us in last five years.

[Zatman]

16 hours ago, VillaChris said:

Yep record v them since coming up is played 11, won 6, drawn 4 and lost 1. Scored 18 in those games and conceded 7 so we're even more of a bogey team to them than Wolves and West Ham are to us in last five years.

The one we lost we were robbed of a penalty

[oishiiniku_uk]

De Zerbi's clearly given up for the season (look at the amount of rotation he's been doing the past few games) and most likely is hoping that the big clubs he was linked to earlier in the season (I'm still not convinced there was more to it than the usual football media rumours) will come calling even though his team have gone into a complete slump. He may well still be carrying a grudge over the transfer strategy last summer/in January: Brighton should probably have been more ambitious in replacing Mac Allister and Caicedo (Gilmour is never going to reach the same levels and Baleba is not going to be ready to start regularly for a year or two). Potentially they could spend a fair amount this summer, but they will be a less enticing prospect if they finish 14th than if they'd splashed the cash when they'd secured Europa League football and everyone was celebrating them as 'the best run club in the world'. Also, it's kinda crazy that they finished a point above us last season and are likely to finish 25+ points below us this time around.

[villa89]

4 minutes ago, oishiiniku_uk said:

Brighton should probably have been more ambitious in replacing Mac Allister and Caicedo 

To achieve what exactly? Brighton have smashed into their glass ceiling. Their model is to sell their best players and hope good scouting fills the gap. That strategy is doomed to failure so Brighton will just end up a nothing mid table team like Palace who sell any player they have that's good. 

[oishiiniku_uk]

1 minute ago, villa89 said:

To achieve what exactly? Brighton have smashed into their glass ceiling. Their model is to sell their best players and hope good scouting fills the gap. That strategy is doomed to failure so Brighton will just end up a nothing mid table team like Palace who sell any player they have that's good. 

If you're posting £100 mil + profits year after year then maybe you can start shopping more regularly at a higher level for some of your signings (i.e. shop in the £15-40 million market as we did for Luiz, Watkins, Bailey, Pau, etc.)? And then it's quite possible that you could still sell them for significant profit if they perform well (with you probably higher up the table).

[VillaChris]

Just now, oishiiniku_uk said:

If you're posting £100 mil + profits year after year then maybe you can start shopping more regularly at a higher level for some of your signings (i.e. shop in the £15-40 million market as we did for Luiz, Watkins, Bailey, Pau, etc.)? And then it's quite possible that you could still sell them for significant profit if they perform well (with you probably higher up the table).

Joao Pedro was one, signed him for 30m.

They needed to sign a CM for that amount but didn't and it's cost them as the season has gone on.

[oishiiniku_uk]

1 minute ago, VillaChris said:

Joao Pedro was one, signed him for 30m.

They needed to sign a CM for that amount but didn't and it's cost them as the season has gone on.

Yep. They really needed to sign both a Mac Allister replacement AND a more experienced/proven player than Baleba for DM also. Teams have just walked through their midfield for a lot of this season (Gilmour and Hinshelwood vs us was a particularly pathetic pair).

[villa89]

15 minutes ago, oishiiniku_uk said:

If you're posting £100 mil + profits year after year then maybe you can start shopping more regularly at a higher level for some of your signings 

But they aren't going to post those profits year after year. They aren't always going to strike gold in the transfer market. That model isn't sustainable. Then if they start buying players for £40m who don't work out then the finances end up under pressure. Even if they do work out generally you won't really be able to make much profit on a player who cost that much. Lastly the more you spend on a player the higher his wages/agent fees will be. 

Brighton are doing exactly what you would expect a sensibly run club to do. 

[GlobalVillan]

18 hours ago, HongKongVillan said:

You know what's with team in shit form and who best to play against?

Every team. According to that team's supporters. 

[pas5898]

37 minutes ago, oishiiniku_uk said:

If you're posting £100 mil + profits year after year then maybe you can start shopping more regularly at a higher level for some of your signings

Leicester are proof, if you are a "selling club" you're only 2/3 bad transfer windows away from the top 7 to catastrophic failure no matter how much you spend. 100million + on rubbish such as Daka, Christensen, Soumare, Faes, Souttar etc was all that's needed to relegate them and leave them in FFP trouble with limited sellable assets.

Another bad transfer window this summer for Brighton, they could be heading in a similar direction.

[VillaChris]

Just now, pas5898 said:

Leicester are proof, if you are a "selling club" you're only 2/3 bad transfer windows away from the top 7 to catastrophic failure no matter how much you spend. 100million + on rubbish such as Daka, Christensen, Soumare, Faes, Souttar etc was all that's needed to relegate them and leave them in FFP trouble with limited sellable assets.

Another bad transfer window this summer for Brighton, they could be heading in a similar direction.

Go back a decade and Swansea/Southampton were what Brighton were in the premier league.

[oishiiniku_uk]

2 hours ago, villa89 said:

But they aren't going to post those profits year after year. They aren't always going to strike gold in the transfer market. That model isn't sustainable. Then if they start buying players for £40m who don't work out then the finances end up under pressure. Even if they do work out generally you won't really be able to make much profit on a player who cost that much. Lastly the more you spend on a player the higher his wages/agent fees will be. 

Brighton are doing exactly what you would expect a sensibly run club to do. 

Is that the difference between them and us then? We're willing to gamble on more expensive players in an attempt to bridge the gap to the top teams whereas Brighton know their limits and are happy to be a stable, mid-table club that might push into the top half once in a while? Our revenues were pretty similar last year (albeit we have more room to grow given the larger supporter base, larger ground, greater potential for commercial partners etc.). 

[oishiiniku_uk]

1 hour ago, pas5898 said:

Leicester are proof, if you are a "selling club" you're only 2/3 bad transfer windows away from the top 7 to catastrophic failure no matter how much you spend. 100million + on rubbish such as Daka, Christensen, Soumare, Faes, Souttar etc was all that's needed to relegate them and leave them in FFP trouble with limited sellable assets.

Another bad transfer window this summer for Brighton, they could be heading in a similar direction.

Brighton still have a number of very sellable assets (Ferguson, Mitoma, Enciso, Estupinan etc.) and plenty in the bank. While I agree that it's unwise to spend frivolously, I don't think that Brighton will get a better opportunity to capitalize on their own success (and the under-performance of others) than they did last summer. If there was ambition to sustain their league position as well as challenge in Europe then a couple more signings could have made all the difference.

Edited April 29 by oishiiniku_uk

[villa89]

22 minutes ago, oishiiniku_uk said:

Is that the difference between them and us then? We're willing to gamble on more expensive players in an attempt to bridge the gap to the top teams whereas Brighton know their limits and are happy to be a stable, mid-table club that might push into the top half once in a while? 

Pretty much yes. We also have owners who seem more ambitious than Tony Bloom and who have much deeper pockets. Also our potential to grow is higher because of the bigger catchment area. 

[pas5898]

2 hours ago, oishiiniku_uk said:

Is that the difference between them and us then? We're willing to gamble on more expensive players in an attempt to bridge the gap to the top teams whereas Brighton know their limits and are happy to be a stable, mid-table club that might push into the top half once in a while? Our revenues were pretty similar last year (albeit we have more room to grow given the larger supporter base, larger ground, greater potential for commercial partners etc.). 

Buying Pau Torres was a no brainer and likely to work out 90% of the time.

Buying an unknown Columbian defender is likely to work out 50% of the time. If you have more losses than hits you end up being Leicester, Swansea etc and in a poorer financial situation.