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The economic impact of Covid-19


Genie

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2 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

I got this info secondhand so would be interesting to know exactly what’s in place. My understanding is kurzarbeit is like a much more flexible furlough scheme, but perhaps there were additional grants on top of that?

I think our govt was ideologically opposed to anything that might look too “socialist” and have inadvertently screwed up the market even more. I suspect a more pragmatic government would have done it differently, but these guys are ideologues.

I don't know any detailed specifics - maybe @villa4europe knows more?

What I know is that the employers shorten working hours, and then the government makes up the shortfall in pay. So for example the employer keeps the employee on for 5 hours a week and pays them that - enough time to deal with your phone call, for instance - and the government pays the remaining 30/35 hours. Presumably there's some ability in place to help employers pay the first few hours if they get into desperate trouble, perhas conditional upon not letting people go, but I'm just guessing about that.

You're probably right in your estimate of why they didn't do it. As always I find myself wondering to what extent it is down to being an unwielding ideologue, versus to what extent it just wasn't popular with Tim Martin or the guy who owns JCB or whoever.

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10 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

There’s a lovely quote from Simak that I’ve lost and can’t refind.

Basically, he says we had to forget about ideology and do the right thing.

Which to me, is actually quite a damning condemnation of his own ideology.

 

Yes I’ve no doubt Sunak has genuinely compromised on some of his beliefs, and I guess that’s a good thing. It’s just a shame their starting point was so laissez faire that what seems a massive concession to them is chicken feed in the grand scheme of things.

The German system sounds so much better for keeping things ticking over efficiently, while still protecting people from transmission. It obviously helps that they’d had this in place pre-Covid.

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28 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

I got this info secondhand so would be interesting to know exactly what’s in place. My understanding is kurzarbeit is like a much more flexible furlough scheme, but perhaps there were additional grants on top of that?

I think our govt was ideologically opposed to anything that might look too “socialist” and have inadvertently screwed up the market even more. I suspect a more pragmatic government would have done it differently, but these guys are ideologues.

Can't be that. Giving money directly to businesses, even made up on the spot businesses appears to be what Tories do. Furlough schemes are far more socialist that what Germany has done.

I'd put it down to a complete lack of intellect at the top and nothing else

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2 minutes ago, bickster said:

Can't be that. Giving money directly to businesses, even made up on the spot businesses appears to be what Tories do. Furlough schemes are far more socialist that what Germany has done.

I'd put it down to a complete lack of intellect at the top and nothing else

How do made up businesses get money?

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my company was kind enough to issue me with half a forests worth of paperwork on kurzarbeit, all in German...

what it means for me is my company put me on 90% of my hours per week (and im not sure if its my company or a German thing but clocking in and out and hours management is bigger than anything we actually do as a company, its mad how important it is) so im down to a 36 hour week, my company then pays me 90% of my salary and the German government pays me 60% of the difference, so 60% of the 10% (everyone was on different percentages) probably capped somewhere but I was no where near that cap so I don't know the details

its agreed with the government, they sent people to my office to organise it and then people to audit it weekly, its really serious with big punishments if you go over the allotted hours, I was working from home logging in at 7am, going for a shower, eating, going for a walk, getting dragged in to meetings, logging out at 6pm without a care in the world...and got the riot act read to me for it, I had to take 3 days off to balance it

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Just now, Follyfoot said:

How do made up businesses get money?

Have a read of the PPE scandal. Businesses created literally off the shelf, to sell PPE to the Govt, with no experience in the field, happen to be friends of prominent Tories won contracts that never went to tender. Multiple times.

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9 minutes ago, bickster said:

Can't be that. Giving money directly to businesses, even made up on the spot businesses appears to be what Tories do. Furlough schemes are far more socialist that what Germany has done.

I'd put it down to a complete lack of intellect at the top and nothing else

I mean, yes, they are also corrupt - valid point. But most businesses (like mine) don’t benefit from this largesse, and it’s a distraction from the point we were discussing.

The furlough scheme was deliberately designed (IMO) to put people in a moral quandary and disincentivise uptake.

As it was either (a) claim a month of furlough and do zero work, or (b) work with no financial support, they hoped people would opt for the latter. In practice, many people would have been more productive (and safe) with something in the middle, where hours were reduced and work could still proceed.

I believe on top of that Germany has also given grants to businesses, where Sunak has preferred Bounceback Loans - but again, need some clarity on that from someone who knows what they’re talking about.

I’ve found the whole thing quite bizarre. Sunak is idolised in some quarters because he’s basically paid for people to have a summer staycation. If you run a small business and have to scrap for revenue most of the time, it’s just a total disaster. My work is inherently Covid-safe, but most of it has been mothballed.

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12 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

As it was either (a) claim a month of furlough and do zero work, or (b) work with no financial support, they hoped people would opt for the latter. In practice, many people would have been more productive (and safe) with something in the middle, where hours were reduced and work could still proceed.

I thought the target audience was industries which couldn’t work (bars, restaurants, shops, factories, hotels etc) and had their income drop to near zero.

They had to use the scheme to have a chance at surviving the lockdown period. Places that could operate should have carried on operating. 

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52 minutes ago, bickster said:

Have a read of the PPE scandal. Businesses created literally off the shelf, to sell PPE to the Govt, with no experience in the field, happen to be friends of prominent Tories won contracts that never went to tender. Multiple times.

Dont forget the grayling / brexit farce too with the company with no ships being awarded a huge shipping tender.....

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56 minutes ago, Follyfoot said:

How do made up businesses get money?

 

10 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Live close to a Government Minister and rent him some imaginary ferries?

As far as I can see, the main answer to this is 'be run by a couple who know Dominic Cummings and have worked in Tory party politics for a while'.

Note how different this is to the question of how existing businesses get money, which is 'go to dinner with Robert Jenrick'.

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2 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Dont forget the grayling / brexit farce too with the company with no ships being awarded a huge shipping tender.....

Now you're at it with the subliminal pizza messaging

"Brexit freight ferry firm appears all geared up – to deliver pizzas" and so on were the headlines weren't they.

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9 minutes ago, Follyfoot said:

I was coming at it from the furlough/recovery loan angle which I thought the OP was coming from 

Ah, furlough, well I’d imagine Chris Grayling and the tory chums behind Seaborne Freight have seen more than their fair share of discharged seamen.

 

 

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1 minute ago, KentVillan said:

I mean, yes, they are also corrupt - valid point. But most businesses (like mine) don’t benefit from this largesse, and it’s a distraction from the point we were discussing.

The furlough scheme was deliberately designed (IMO) to put people in a moral quandary and disincentivise uptake.

As it was either (a) claim a month of furlough and do zero work, or (b) work with no financial support, they hoped people would opt for the latter. In practice, many people would have been more productive (and safe) with something in the middle, where hours were reduced and work could still proceed.

I believe on top of that Germany has also given grants to businesses, where Sunak has preferred Bounceback Loans - but again, need some clarity on that from someone who knows what they’re talking about.

I’ve found the whole thing quite bizarre. Sunak is idolised in some quarters because he’s basically paid for people to have a summer staycation. If you run a small business and have to scrap for revenue most of the time, it’s just a total disaster. My work is inherently Covid-safe, but most of it has been mothballed.

My real point was that the current Govt are not exactly that switched on and lack the talent to think

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50 minutes ago, Genie said:

I thought the target audience was industries which couldn’t work (bars, restaurants, shops, factories, hotels etc) and had their income drop to near zero.

They had to use the scheme to have a chance at surviving the lockdown period. Places that could operate should have carried on operating. 

You can furlough any employee in any industry for any reason, so long as they don’t work. There’s no guideline saying this should only be “face to face” workers or whatever. That maybe how it was presented in the media, but certainly not how it was implemented.

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2 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

You can furlough any employee in any industry for any reason, so long as they don’t work. There’s no guideline saying this should only be “face to face” workers or whatever. That maybe how it was presented in the media, but certainly not how it was implemented.

Yes I agree, limitations were not put on it but I interpreted it as a way for businesses to retain the staff they’d otherwise have to let go because of the lockdown.

 

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Just now, Genie said:

Yes I agree, limitations were not put on it but I interpreted it as a way for businesses to retain the staff they’d otherwise have to let go because of the lockdown.

 

Yes I think there’s some nuance here worth setting out:

1. Are there businesses outside leisure / hospitality / etc that were struggling and would have laid off workers without furlough support? Yes - most businesses across all sectors.

2. Is it a good idea to require those workers to do ZERO work? No!

The government should have managed that fall in capacity, instead of amplifying it with the incredibly blunt rules imposed on the furlough scheme.

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