The Hung Like a Donkey General Election December 2019 Thread

[snowychap]

A tiebreaker question for any deadheats on election seat predictions:

On what day do you think Parliament will be summoned after the election?

 

Edited October 30, 2019 by snowychap

[tonyh29]

14 minutes ago, Sam-AVFC said:

Well if "everyone" on Twitter said so...

Also, just a heads up, neither of these are part leaders any more.

I hadn't realised that  ,  i did wonder why Dem kept going on about Corbyn in that other thread when he is nothing more than a back bencher ....

Hammond has warned of a move to the right  but since May "won" an election on Ed's policies and Corbyn also didn't quite win  whilst moving the party further left  ,  we haven't had a great deal of policy shift , hence to argue the Tory party are further right  than labour are left would be wrong as things stand

 

[cyrusr]

12 minutes ago, snowychap said:

A tiebreaker question for any deadheats on election seat predictions:

On what day do you think Parliament will be summoned after the election?

 

1st April 2099

[bickster]

1 hour ago, cyrusr said:

Ahem... Pro-EU UK parties set to launch anti-Brexit election pact

I heard about this on Radio 5 Live earlier (despite what the article says later on). The article refers to the recent by election where Plaid Cymru and Greens didn't stand so Lib Dems could win.

Also you had Brexit Party offering a similar one to the Tories in the Euros. Whether they do that now is another question, given their different stances, but it surely remains a possibility. 

Sorry should have added... until now 

[bickster]

53 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

It was only 2 years ago everyone was taking to twitter to say that May had stolen Red Ed's policies

You see what you did there!

Have a word with yourself

[bickster]

36 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

I hadn't realised that  ,  i did wonder why Dem kept going on about Corbyn in that other thread when he is nothing more than a back bencher ....

Hammond has warned of a move to the right  but since May "won" an election on Ed's policies and Corbyn also didn't quite win  whilst moving the party further left  ,  we haven't had a great deal of policy shift , hence to argue the Tory party are further right  than labour are left would be wrong as things stand

 

They haven't been able to pass any sodding policy, they've talked about the potential for many things though to give us a flavour of their nuttiness, like you know, removing workers rights etc

[cyrusr]

So found this website Electoral Calculus where you can put in the predictions and play around a bit. It seems pretty decent as takes into account wealth, education, brexit position amongst other things. 

It doesn't include NI (but you can do that separately) but thought would have some fun. I put in Con 30%; Lab 25%; Lib Dem & Brexit 25%; Greens 5%; UKIP 0% (and that's being generous for UKIP). The reason for the odd % is I did the Scotland part as well which you can add (SNP I did 43%, Lab 30%, Con 15%; Lib Dem 10%; Brexit & Greens 1% - more based on 2017 but with SNP & Lab higher and Con lower than 2017 based on the Scottish position on Brexit and the loss of Ruth Davidson, who seemed to be the reason they came back in Scotland). 

Anyway came back with this:-

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	43.5%	318	28.8%	28	38	-10	308
LAB	41.0%	262	24.0%	1	45	-44	218
LIB	7.6%	12	19.2%	33	0	+33	45
Brexit	0.0%	0	19.2%	5	0	+5	5
Green	1.7%	1	4.8%	1	0	+1	2
SNP	3.1%	35	3.5%	16	0	+16	51
PlaidC	0.5%	4	0.5%	0	1	-1	3
UKIP	1.9%	0	0.0%	0	0	+0	0
Other	0.7%	0	0.0%	0	0	+0	0
N.Ire		18		0	0	+0	18

Link for the seat changes etc

18 Short of majority for Tories. However, for what its worth their predicted NI picture is as follows:-

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Pred Seats
DUP	36.0	10	29.0	9
SF	29.4	7	25.0	7
Alliance	7.9	0	21.0	1
MIN	3.7	1	7.0	1
UUP	10.3	0	9.0	0
SDLP	11.7	0	8.0	0
Green	0.9	0	1.0	0

Now doing the calculations if DUP and Brexit party support Cons AND Sinn Fein don't take up their seats as per usual, I make that as a majority of 1. Given the DUPs already known position on Johnson's deal, that ain't going to happen. So in short, no, no one would be able to put together a majority government.

So yeah, that'll sort out this mess I'm sure 

[tonyh29]

4 minutes ago, bickster said:

They haven't been able to pass any sodding policy, they've talked about the potential for many things though to give us a flavour of their nuttiness, like you know, removing workers rights etc

the opinion on workers rights seems to come down to us leaving the ECJ  and unions deciding it will be inevitable that the government will erode them  , I've not seen any official Tory policy yet that states this is the actual  intention  ..yeah I know  , Tory's  and we can't trust them etc  but equally I don't think anyone is going to be sending children down coal mines any more , and not just because Labour shut most of them down 

[tonyh29]

3 minutes ago, cyrusr said:

Anyway came back with this:-

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	43.5%	318	28.8%	28	38	-10	308
LAB	41.0%	262	24.0%	1	45	-44	218
LIB	7.6%	12	19.2%	33	0	+33	45
Brexit	0.0%	0	19.2%	5	0	+5	5
Green	1.7%	1	4.8%	1	0	+1	2
SNP	3.1%	35	3.5%	16	0	+16	51
PlaidC	0.5%	4	0.5%	0	1	-1	3
UKIP	1.9%	0	0.0%	0	0	+0	0
Other	0.7%	0	0.0%	0	0	+0	0
N.Ire		18		0	0	+0	18

Link for the seat changes etc

 

Says a lot about our electoral system that in that prediction  . The Brexit party and Lib Dems both achieve 19.2% of the vote and one party gets  45 seats and the other 5  , before you get onto the SNP with 51 seats for 3.5% !!

[bickster]

Hostile Environment says Hi btw

[bickster]

6 minutes ago, cyrusr said:

The reason for the odd % is I did the Scotland part as well which you can add (SNP I did 43%, Lab 30%, Con 15%; Lib Dem 10%; Brexit & Greens 1% - more based on 2017 but with SNP & Lab higher and Con lower than 2017 based on the Scottish position on Brexit and the loss of Ruth Davidson, who seemed to be the reason they came back in Scotland). 

Labour are f***ed in Scotland, they'll be lower. Lib Dems will be the beneficiary of Tory seats

[blandy]

4 hours ago, tonyh29 said:

most of England is Tory in the main

It isn't though, is it? Even now, for example, the polls n'that are saying 30-36 odd percent Tory support. So most of England is ABT 

 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

For the first time ever I can't vote for anyone. I normally vote Labour with FIBDEMS as my second choice if Labour are too left wing. Corbyn is definitely too left wing for me but I haven't forgiven the FIBDEMS for selling out their principles as soon as they got a sniff of power. 

I believe we should stay in the EU but I also believe we should respect the result of referendums. 

I also wash on a regular basis which automatically prevents me voting Green. 

I wish there was a box on the ballot paper "None of the above". 

 

 

Edited October 30, 2019 by Mandy Lifeboats
Speeling mishsteaks

[Mandy Lifeboats]

Deleted. Double post.

 

 

Edited October 30, 2019 by Mandy Lifeboats
Double

[Chindie]

He ain't wrong.

[cyrusr]

1 hour ago, tonyh29 said:

Says a lot about our electoral system that in that prediction  . The Brexit party and Lib Dems both achieve 19.2% of the vote and one party gets  45 seats and the other 5  , before you get onto the SNP with 51 seats for 3.5% !!

And also Tories and Labour getting 200/300 seats each for not much more. FPTP is an awful system, but as long as it continues to serve the main parties, it won’t change. 

[cyrusr]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

Labour are f***ed in Scotland, they'll be lower. Lib Dems will be the beneficiary of Tory seats

Quite possible, not so sure of the politics up there, save that SNP seem pretty popular still. Not sure what impact it did, but think it’s relatively save to assume that Tories will lose in Scotland. 

[ml1dch]

11 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

For the first time ever I can't vote for anyone. I normally vote Labour with FIBDEMS as my second choice if Labour are too left wing. Corbyn is definitely too left wing for me but I haven't forgiven the FIBDEMS for selling out their principles as soon as they got a sniff of power. 

So... given your objections to Labour and Lib Dem were just as applicable in 2017 as they are in 2019 who did you manage to vote for two years ago?

[snowychap]

CNN:

Quote

...

Rumors are now circulating that the Brexit Party will switch its focus from standing in every seat to concentrating on a handful of seats that they have a decent chance on winning.

On Wednesday morning, party campaigners were sent the following message, which has been seen by CNN. "Message from HQ... IMPORTANT. Please go DARK on social media. DO NOT respond to any questions about where we are standing, what the strategy or plan is from now. Things will be made clear to all PPCs very soon. #changepoliticsforgood."

 

[Chindie]

Quite a bit of talk that some of the 'tactical voting' guide sites might be disingenuous... recommending Lib Dem votes where they wouldn't actually be the right choice.

Which is shitty.