Dean Smith

[TRO]

30 minutes ago, TRO said:

1 hour ago, foreveryoung said:

Maybe I'm thinking to simplistic, but this is how I always thought about it. I mean there's the strikers looking for space, as in Watkins and Ings. If there is no chance of scoring yourself, get the ball to either of them and let them do the business.

The Football league was formed in 1888, 133 years ago......In that time the game has been morphing, by tweaks and small and large changes.....While the game today has the obvious sign of change, just like the Automobile, the fundamentals, remain.

The platform, what the game was built on, remains, as with the car.

There have been umpteen, playing styles and formations and the teams that win the most, games/Trophies set the trends of the day by and large.....and what has changed there you might say.

Its a mature game, where most things in terms have formations have already been thought out....so things get regurgitated and made popular, by visionary students of the game....sure the odd thing will be new, but by and large, already been done.

Managers like Rinus Michels , architects of total football, also had the presence of mind to quote "Football is like war, whoever behaves too properly is lost".....profound coming from one of the pioneers of progressive football.

The game is simple, so thinking simplistic is apt.....its only people make it complicated.

 

Edited November 4, 2021 by TRO

[TRO]

38 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

And yet, the clubs that have the best sports science and data analytics teams are outperforming the rest.  

My understanding is Brentford and Brighton are amongst the best.....Its a long season, my guess is Brighton, will settle back to a mid table ish, position...and Brentford, while doing well are not amongst the Elite, by any stretch.

[Peter Griffin]

14 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

I imagine Smith would be thinking more about the financial side than maybe a Klopp or Tuchel. 

You got a point there 

[KentVillan]

2 minutes ago, TRO said:

My understanding is Brentford and Brighton are amongst the best.....Its a long season, my guess is Brighton, will settle back to a mid table ish, position...and Brentford, while doing well are not amongst the Elite, by any stretch.

I was talking about Liverpool, Man City, etc. but yes Brentford and Brighton have also massively outperformed their budgets by investing in a more data-driven / scientific approach.

Ron Saunders wouldn't do it that way, of course, but there are other ways of winning football games.

[TRO]

16 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

I was talking about Liverpool, Man City, etc. but yes Brentford and Brighton have also massively outperformed their budgets by investing in a more data-driven / scientific approach.

Ron Saunders wouldn't do it that way, of course, but there are other ways of winning football games.

Ron Saunders was in an era, when the opportunity wasn't there for Data, in the sophistication it is today, Shankly, Clough and Paisley..etc.never had it either, they relied on empirical methods.

Liverpool, and Man city, Man U in the main, have succeeded through, The best Managers and the best players, driven by a ruthless desire and pursuit of winning....Chelsea has joined that group and Man U is coming under fire, because traditionally their fans have been brought up to win, its indoctrinated in them....we call it a times entitlement, but thats our defence mechanism to cope with mediocrity.

Winning is ingrained in them, and when they slip or dip away from those exacting standards, inquests begin and usually heads roll.....They have not been at the top of English football, just through money, albeit it plays a major part.....Its the total unadulterated refusal to accept anything other than the best....That is their holy grail.

As I have said before, there are many ways of winning football matches, but I can't recall any team winning the title, with passive tendencies...no matter what style they choose.

 

 

Edited November 4, 2021 by TRO

[Dave-R]

33 minutes ago, TRO said:

The Football league was formed in 1888, 133 years ago......In that time the game has been morphing, by tweaks and small and large changes.....While the game today has the obvious sign of change, just like the Automobile, the fundamentals, remain.

The platform, what the game was built on, remains, as with the car.

There have been umpteen, playing styles and formations and the teams that win the most, games/Trophies set the trends of the day by and large.....and what has changed there you might say.

Its a mature game, where most things in terms have formations have already been thought out....so things get regurgitated and made popular, by visionary students of the game....sure the odd thing will be new, but by and large, already been done.

Managers like Rinus Michels , architects of total football, also had the presence of mind to quote "Football is like war, whoever behaves too properly is lost".....profound coming from one of the pioneers of progressive football.

The game is simple, so thinking simplistic is apt.....its only people make it complicated.

 

I maybe wrong here but I believe what your saying is, the majority who fall in line and copy those at the front in systems and playstyles will be nothing more than a bunch of managers who can't adapt nearly as good as the managers who try new stuff out. I mean let's face it Smith is trying new stuff all the time and you have to give it to him eventually he may be one of the latest to discover a new style. It takes real guts to do what he does and experiment and it may not be going right now but he's been here before. I fear us fans are being to harsh right now because if he leaves he could stumble of that exact system were so seeing from some of those managers at the top of the league. Fergie is the perfect example to use in how he didn't get stuff right straight away but he soon found a winning formula that made utd league winners for a long time.

We have had so much go wrong from injury, officiating, players not giving it there all, covid, you name it and everything that can go wrong has been for us. I just think its wrong for us to call for Smiths head so soon I'm prepared to give him the season unless we end up fighting a relegation battle.

give Smith January it maybe one or two extra players are needed to create that winning system for us. We should all know from westham and last season that even one player could change us for the better as they did brilliant once Lingard went there.

I'm still confident in Smith even if others aren't. 

Edited November 4, 2021 by Dave-R

[Blasterpocket68]

3 hours ago, Peter Griffin said:

I don't believe that would work with the elite managers. Pep is on 25m a year, we offer him 35m and he won't come to us. He wants to compete at the highest level just like players do and the elite managers already have enough cash that a pay rise won't have any material impact on their life. Same goes for Klopp and Conte etc. But a manager like Potter would leave for the money imo

It did with Man City totally in the football wilderness went from Erickson Rob Mancini Pelegrín’s to Pep , there pretty elite managers. 
money talks 

anyway as I alluded we’re not on this strategy.

[AvfcRigo82]

1 hour ago, PaulC said:

Watching the pre match interview, it doesn't seem that he is under any pressure at all. "Look at Liverpool they lost 4 games in a row and still finished 3rd".  Hes either a very chilled man or he's pretending he is. 

Or he's bordering deluded?

Is he referring to the same Liverpool team that only lost 9 games all season!?

So far this season, we've lost 6 of our 10 games and there's still another 28 games to play this season.

If he is trying to justify our poor performances with that statistical nonsense, is he also trying to suggest that we will only lose another 3 games max for the remainder of this season so that we also finish 3rd?

Very concerning.

 

 

Edited November 4, 2021 by AvfcRigo82

[TRO]

10 minutes ago, Dave-R said:

I maybe wrong here but I believe what your saying is, the majority who fall in line and copy those at the front in systems and playstyles will be nothing more than a bunch of managers who can't adapt nearly as good as the managers who try new stuff out. I mean let's face it Smith is trying new stuff all the time and you have to give it to him eventually he may be one of the latest to discover a new style. It takes real guts to do what he does and experiment and it may not be going right now but he's been here before. I fear us fans are being to harsh right now because if he leaves he could stumble of that exact system were so seeing from some of those managers at the top of the league. Fergie is the perfect example to use in how he didn't get stuff right straight away but he soon found a winning formula that made utd league winners for a long time.

We have had so much go wrong from injury, officiating, players not giving it there all, covid, you name it and everything that can go wrong has been for us. I just think its wrong for us to call for Smiths head so soon I'm prepared to give him the season unless we end up fighting a relegation battle.

give Smith January it maybe one or two extra players are needed to create that winning system for us. We should all know from westham and last season that even one player could change us for the better as they did brilliant once Langard went there.

I'm still confident in Smith even if others aren't. 

You are right Dave, its not what I was getting at. I was talking in general, mainly answering the role stats play.....secondly to empirical ,Methods in my opinion.

When I should be talking about Dean Smith, so apologies for that.

I believe, the right type of player, would change us and trigger a knock on effect....I'm hoping Dean comes up with one.

Edited November 4, 2021 by TRO

[villalad21]

1 hour ago, PaulC said:

Watching the pre match interview, it doesn't seem that he is under any pressure at all. "Look at Liverpool they lost 4 games in a row and still finished 3rd".  Hes either a very chilled man or he's pretending he is. 

You can't be real..

Please tell me he didn't say this 

[Tommo_b]

16 hours ago, PaulC said:

Watching the pre match interview, it doesn't seem that he is under any pressure at all. "Look at Liverpool they lost 4 games in a row and still finished 3rd".  Hes either a very chilled man or he's pretending he is. 

I think that’s a very good comparison to be fair to Dean, for me it shows he is confident in the squad, players and believes it’s just a blip which even the best teams have.

For me if I’m a Villa player that boosts my confidence no end hearing that from the manager and makes me not play with as much fear. 

[DaveAV1]

16 hours ago, TRO said:

The Football league was formed in 1888, 133 years ago......In that time the game has been morphing, by tweaks and small and large changes.....While the game today has the obvious sign of change, just like the Automobile, the fundamentals, remain

So is that why Dr Tony took a Ford Mondeo with him to Rome? 

[briny_ear]

17 hours ago, PaulC said:

Watching the pre match interview, it doesn't seem that he is under any pressure at all. "Look at Liverpool they lost 4 games in a row and still finished 3rd".  Hes either a very chilled man or he's pretending he is. 

Oh dear, maybe he’s been reading too many posts by @DCJonah. For me, this just increases the impression I had from the West Ham post-match that Dean is a bit in denial about our poor form at present and the position we are in.

Not that it’s sensible at all to compare our recent run with that of Liverpool last season, but just for the record the 4 games they lost “in a row” were punctuated by an away win in the Champions League. And they slipped from third in the table to sixth. Our 4 match lapse has dropped us from eighth to fifteenth, so slightly less of a cushion.

Edited November 5, 2021 by briny_ear

[Dave-R]

18 hours ago, PaulC said:

Watching the pre match interview, it doesn't seem that he is under any pressure at all. "Look at Liverpool they lost 4 games in a row and still finished 3rd".  Hes either a very chilled man or he's pretending he is. 

I think your right he's not under pressure, it's the media making it sound and feel as bad as what us fans are I think.

With all that has happened this season I think the Owners will continue to throw there weight behind Smith.

I'm also sorry to put it has bluntly as this but do people really believe any other manager could do better given what's happened to us this season, I think not and alot of it has been out of Smiths hands.

I think we need to use common sense here, let's not return to the days of being desperate because we're going through a bad run, let's not return to the days of chopping managers heads off.

Get behind your man in charge something will click along the way and if it takes a season to sort out the issues so that next season will be better then so be it.

[Dave-R]

1 hour ago, Tommo_b said:

I think that’s a very good comparison to be fair to Dean, for me it shows he is confident in the squad, players and believes it’s just a blip which even the best teams have.

For me if I’m a Villa player that boosts my confidence no end hearing that from the manager and makes me not play with as much fear. 

Well he's no Bruce that's for sure, he doesn't go throwing his players under the bus and I doubt he would. I've always enjoyed Smiths talks even in defeat he's a very humble man and he will admit it when he know he got it wrong and shares the blame as a collective and that's how it should be.

We can say its Smith or the players all we want but truth is when something goes wrong it's everyone and so to is it everyone's challenge to get it right and get past this.

[allani]

1 hour ago, briny_ear said:

Oh dear, maybe he’s been reading too many posts by @DCJonah. For me, this just increases the impression I had from the West Ham post-match that Dean is a bit in denial about our poor form at present and the position we are in.

Not that it’s sensible at all to compare our recent run with that of Liverpool last season, but just for the record the 4 games they lost “in a row” were punctuated by an away win in the Champions League. And they slipped from third in the table to sixth. Our 4 match lapse has dropped us from eighth to fifteenth, so slightly less of a cushion.

Apologies but I have dropped out for a few days after the disappointment of last weekend so someone may have already done this.  I am worried that anyone can be looking at this as a short term issue or just about the last 4 matches.  We have been largely disappointing since January - both in terms of results but more importantly performance.  The brilliant end to last season and the win against Man Utd have masked that slightly.

But I have just been looking at the calendar years stats.  In 2020 we played 32 matches, won 12, drew 7, lost 13, goals for 44, goals against 45 with a return of 43 points.  That put us in 13th (out of 23) in the "annual" league table (although 6 clubs played around 50% of the matches due to promotion / relegation).

In 2021 we have so far played 34 matches: won 11, drawn 6, lost 17, goals for 41, goals against 51 with a return of 39 points.  We are still listed as 13th (again with 6 clubs below us having played substantially fewer games) but if we had played the same number of matches then Southampton and Brentford would (based on points per match) be above us so we are really 15th.

So this is not a temporary loss of form.  Every single statistic in 2021 is worse than the corresponding statistic in 2020.  All of them.  We've won fewer, drawn fewer, lost more games.  Scored fewer goals and conceded more goals (even adjusted for the 2 extra matches).  The "myth" is not that some fans are being short-sighted - but instead what appears wrong is the idea that we are showing consistent improvement under Smith.  We aren't.  Despite the fact that the playing personnel are generally stronger now than they were at the start on January 1st 2020 (with the exception of he who shall not be named).

These are serious concerns that the club and / or Smith need to be addressing - rather than trying to pass things off as a result of a bad decision here and there, a bit of bad luck, a spell of tough fixtures or a "short term" problem spanning 4 or 5 matches.  I agree that we shouldn't make a decision on the basis of 4, 5 or even 10 matches.  But when you can apply a data set of 30+ matches things really don't look great.  I'm really not sure either way on Smith - we seem to blow either hot or cold under him.  I think he's done an amazing job in re-establishing us in the Premier League (supported by heavy investment from our owners).  But I still have doubts that he can take us further.  And the 2020 v 2021 stat comparison have done little to convince me that my concerns are unwarranted.

Edited November 5, 2021 by allani

[string28]

Great chance to get a win tonight against the saints if dean gets the formation right. Southampton have`nt scored many this season so good time to stop the rott.

[allani]

27 minutes ago, Dave-R said:

I think your right he's not under pressure, it's the media making it sound and feel as bad as what us fans are I think.

With all that has happened this season I think the Owners will continue to throw there weight behind Smith.

I'm also sorry to put it has bluntly as this but do people really believe any other manager could do better given what's happened to us this season, I think not and alot of it has been out of Smiths hands.

I think we need to use common sense here, let's not return to the days of being desperate because we're going through a bad run, let's not return to the days of chopping managers heads off.

Get behind your man in charge something will click along the way and if it takes a season to sort out the issues so that next season will be better then so be it.

Sorry I could have replied to many similar posts but yours just happens to be the first I read.  Our 2020 v 2021 calendar year stats show that this isn't just a bad run.  Our form since January is worse than it was the previous year when (for large parts of that year) we were in serious danger of being relegated.  I don't know how long we can go just hoping that something "will click".  I guess for all the bad runs we have had, under Smith we have also tended to have a very hot run too.  So maybe that will happen again and we'll be OK.  But my concern is that under Smith we seem to be a bit "boom or bust" and I am genuinely unsure how long that kind of cycle can continue.  On a calendar year basis it certainly doesn't look like we are making the progression that maybe we think we have?

[MaVilla]

24 minutes ago, allani said:

Sorry I could have replied to many similar posts but yours just happens to be the first I read.  Our 2020 v 2021 calendar year stats show that this isn't just a bad run.  Our form since January is worse than it was the previous year when (for large parts of that year) we were in serious danger of being relegated.  I don't know how long we can go just hoping that something "will click".  I guess for all the bad runs we have had, under Smith we have also tended to have a very hot run too.  So maybe that will happen again and we'll be OK.  But my concern is that under Smith we seem to be a bit "boom or bust" and I am genuinely unsure how long that kind of cycle can continue.  On a calendar year basis it certainly doesn't look like we are making the progression that maybe we think we have?

Some good points.

Our entire 2020 Calendar year points average was 1.35.

Our entire 2021 calendar year points average is 1.14 (to date).

This isnt a small slump, we have performed at effectively a 1.1 point average per game for the entire of 2021, ie: roughly a 41-43 point season.

So far this season, we are bang on averaging 1 point per game, if we lose tonight it will drop below 1 point per game.

 

[ender4]

17 minutes ago, MaVilla said:

Our entire 2020 Calendar year points average was 1.35.

Our entire 2021 calendar year points average is 1.14 (to date).

This isnt a small slump, we have performed at effectively a 1.1 point average per game for the entire of 2021, ie: roughly a 41-43 point season.

Surely it can be explained in 1 word - Jack Grealish.

ok, 2 words.