General Election 2017

[mykeyb]

3 minutes ago, wazzap24 said:

If there was a stand out alternative, I think she'd be gone already mate. 

See Hippos post above for other reasons why they probably can't see this through without another GE fairly quickly. 

Even with a very small coalition majority, they will struggle to get things passed without cross party support. Given there isn't really much common ground now due to Labours shift - it will be a massive uphill battle. 

Without Brexit I think you may be right, but there arent too many stand out alternatives, not only for the Tories but you have to say on both Labour and Lib dems to. Its pretty slim pickings when you look at some of the statesmen we have had in politics over the last 30 years who never got close to the top jobs and then you look at the current shower of shite.

[ThunderPower_14]

Minority governments are always a disaster for whoever ends up in charge because it's incredibly difficult to get anything done or keep any of your election promises. We had the same issue recently in Australia under the Gillard Labor government.

 

Corbyn might actually be well served to not fight May particularly hard on this one, watch the Conservatives totally implode as May desparately clings to power, then set up a vote of no confidence (or whatever other mechanisms there are to force an election in the UK) and win the subsequent election in a landslide, where real change will be able to be made.

[mjmooney]

Any more news on the Bad Friday Agreement? 

[BOF]

I may be wrong here but I get the impression people on mainland UK generally leave the minutae of Northern Irish day to day politics to itself i.e. you wouldn't know a whole lot about the politicians in NI other than maybe being familiar with their names.  Here's a little twitter thread about who May might be getting into bed with.

[HanoiVillan]

17 minutes ago, wazzap24 said:

If there was a stand out alternative, I think she'd be gone already mate. 

See Hippos post above for other reasons why they probably can't see this through without another GE fairly quickly. 

Even with a very small coalition majority, they will struggle to get things passed without cross party support. Given there isn't really much common ground now due to Labours shift - it will be a massive uphill battle. 

I'm out of likes for the day, but I think this is exactly right. 

Tory MPs in their mid-fifties and upwards can probably look forward to a lot more badgering about quitting smoking, losing weight and getting down the gym though - they can't be affording any mortalities over the next five years. 

[Chindie]

8 minutes ago, BOF said:

I may be wrong here but I get the impression people on mainland UK generally leave the minutae of Northern Irish day to day politics to itself i.e. you wouldn't know a whole lot about the politicians in NI other than maybe being familiar with their names.  Here's a little twitter thread about who May might be getting into bed with.

The government is neutral on Northern Ireland as per Good Friday agreement, so it basically doesn't impact over here. So the government wouldn't really have much to do with it and certainly wouldn't get in bed w...

Oh, wait...

[wazzap24]

20 minutes ago, mykeyb said:

Without Brexit I think you may be right, but there arent too many stand out alternatives, not only for the Tories but you have to say on both Labour and Lib dems to. Its pretty slim pickings when you look at some of the statesmen we have had in politics over the last 30 years who never got close to the top jobs and then you look at the current shower of shite.

You are right, but the Libs are pretty much irrelevant ATM and there is no way Labour will be looking for a new leader - the party members would revolt.  

The question is, will Brexit give May the excuse to stay on? I don't think it will. 

Is Brexit a big enough to issue to stop another GE if they appoint another leader? Possibly, but the negotiations will have to go well from the off AND they will have to make potentially huge concessions back home to keep in power and get legislation passed. 

Untenable is going to be the buzzword of the next 12 months imo. 

 

[coda]

Chris Huhne is telling me these DUP cats don't want a hard border. Confused.

[BOF]

14 minutes ago, coda said:

Chris Huhne is telling me these DUP cats don't want a hard border. Confused.

No-one in the North (or Republic for that matter ...) wants a hard border.

[tonyh29]

1 minute ago, BOF said:

No-one in the North (or Republic for that matter ...) wants a hard border.

how long did it take you to survey every single person ?

 

 

[BOF]

1 minute ago, tonyh29 said:

how long did it take you to survey every single person ?

No-one politically   (your smiley duly noted )

[Davkaus]

My one regret about the result is that nobody is going to risk implementing any policy that annoys pensioners, again. The triple lock is ridiculous, but we'll be stuck with it.

[meregreen]

4 hours ago, tonyh29 said:

 

     Tory                Labour

1987 - 42.2%       30.8%

1992 -  41.9%      34.4%

1997 - 30.7%       43.2%

2001  -  31.7%      40.7%

2005 -  32.4%      35.2%

2010 - 36.1%       29%

2015 - 36.9%       30.4%

2017 - 48 % ?      40% ?

 

 

you could argue that UKIP has played a part in some of that erosion  and clearly you can also see some fluctuations based on Leadership ..i.e Blairs first term v Brown

The Tory vote & has increased every year since 1997  , so all in all I'm not sure you can describe it as a Trend

Link to data can be found here if anyone is interested

 

You keep quoting 48% as the Tory share of the Uk vote in yesterday's election , it was actually 42.4%

[wazzap24]

57 minutes ago, hippo said:

Maybe not Today - but loosing commons vote after commons vote isn't a good place to be. Another GE might be seen as the least bad option - I am sure the theory will rise that Jun 8 was as good as its going to get for Corbyn. 

Yes, the absolute crux of the matter now for the Tories is Corbyn and Labours new political stance. 

Have we hit 'peak JC' or could last night be a further catalyst for those on the edge of supporting him?

You could argue this is the best he's got and it wasn't good enough. You could also argue that this is how far he's come, in a relatively short space of time, with everything seemingly against him. Were people protesting against May or genuine believers in the new direction of the Labour Party? How many didn't vote for him, but will now see him as a lot more credible after this? Will a new Tory leader put the brakes on Labour? 

Nobody knows what's going on and it's going to be fascinating watching it all play out. 

 

[tonyh29]

7 minutes ago, meregreen said:

You keep quoting 48% as the Tory share of the Uk vote in yesterday's election , it was actually 42.4%

I thought it was high , hence the ?  .. I was taking it from the web

 

Edit - Ahh ok , it was showing  seats with a % under it , looking at it a bit closer the 48% is of course the % of seats won and not the vote %

 

Edited June 9, 2017 by tonyh29

[blandy]

1 minute ago, wazzap24 said:

Yes, the absolute crux of the matter now for the Tories is Corbyn and Labours new political stance. 

Have we hit 'peak JC' or could last night be a further catalyst for those on the edge of supporting him?

You could argue this is the best he's got and it wasn't good enough. You could also argue that this is how far he's come, in a relatively short space of time, with everything seemingly against him. Were people protesting against May or genuine believers in the new direction of the Labour Party? How many didn't vote for him, but will now see him as a lot more credible after this? Will a new Tory leader put the brakes on Labour? 

Nobody knows what's going on and it's going to be fascinating watching it all play out. 

It's a bit chicken and egg with Corbyn, I think. Things he's always been good at are mainly the kind of things that have been the core part of the election - idealism, rallying people, speaking to people at meetings, opposing things he sees as morally wrong. What he did as well, was listen to advice about his image and presentation with the media etc. He's learnt not to get all irritable when someone asks an uncomfortable question and instead of sort of banking out criticism, or opposing views, he's been good at saying "that's a good question" or "that's a good point..." so he's looked and acted and been more leader like. There are traits or techniques of leadership that can be learnt, and he's learnt a fair few recently.

So all the improved image and people seeing him, (particularly in comparison to the hollow, question and people avoiding T.May) has given impetus and like you say people will see him as more credible and more worth listening to. A kind of virtuous circle.

The  difficulty is that to date he's been terrible at actually doing the other part of leadership - the ability to herd kittens in terms of his MPs. The large number of Labour MPs critical of him pretty much did all that was asked, by just shutting up during the campaign. His result, of not losing badly and gaining seats will maybe encourage a number of them to get more "onside" with him. Whatever the party, when the ordinary MPs don't have faith in their leader, when they see the leader doing badly, they can and do cause trouble and it escalates. T.May has maybe gifted him the chance to re-set the relationship with the other Labour MPs (and them to reset it with him, too). But if he goes back to making poor judgements, not thinking on his feet, and letting people who are not very good at presenting things do the media stuff, then his credit will drain away again.

I imagine the tories in-fighting will occupy the media for a while, so maybe Labour can start to look even more effective. Or maybe they'll just go back to amateur hour again.

He's been lucky that T.May is so utterly terrible.

[meregreen]

22 minutes ago, blandy said:

It's a bit chicken and egg with Corbyn, I think. Things he's always been good at are mainly the kind of things that have been the core part of the election - idealism, rallying people, speaking to people at meetings, opposing things he sees as morally wrong. What he did as well, was listen to advice about his image and presentation with the media etc. He's learnt not to get all irritable when someone asks an uncomfortable question and instead of sort of banking out criticism, or opposing views, he's been good at saying "that's a good question" or "that's a good point..." so he's looked and acted and been more leader like. There are traits or techniques of leadership that can be learnt, and he's learnt a fair few recently.

So all the improved image and people seeing him, (particularly in comparison to the hollow, question and people avoiding T.May) has given impetus and like you say people will see him as more credible and more worth listening to. A kind of virtuous circle.

The  difficulty is that to date he's been terrible at actually doing the other part of leadership - the ability to herd kittens in terms of his MPs. The large number of Labour MPs critical of him pretty much did all that was asked, by just shutting up during the campaign. His result, of not losing badly and gaining seats will maybe encourage a number of them to get more "onside" with him. Whatever the party, when the ordinary MPs don't have faith in their leader, when they see the leader doing badly, they can and do cause trouble and it escalates. T.May has maybe gifted him the chance to re-set the relationship with the other Labour MPs (and them to reset it with him, too). But if he goes back to making poor judgements, not thinking on his feet, and letting people who are not very good at presenting things do the media stuff, then his credit will drain away again.

I imagine the tories in-fighting will occupy the media for a while, so maybe Labour can start to look even more effective. Or maybe they'll just go back to amateur hour again.

He's been lucky that T.May is so utterly terrible.

Time will tell. But I have a feeling that, if nothing else, the poison bubble that is the power of the Tory press , has been burst. No Politician in my lifetime has ever endured a smear campaign to match that which was unleashed on Corbyn, not Miliband or Kinnock, not anyone. It didn't work. This I believe could potentially transform Politics in this country. Yes the Labour Party and in particular it's MPs need to now get behind Corbyn and build on this. But with Murdochs and Dacres malign influence on the wane, it could be the start of a great shift in the political agenda in this country.

Edited June 9, 2017 by meregreen

[blandy]

Just now, meregreen said:

I have a feeling that if nothing else the poison bubble that is the power of the Tory press , has been burst.

Yeah, it didn't work, did it? Dunno if that's because it was so OTT as to be funny, or if it was preaching to the converted only, or if people saw through it as rubbish (largely), or if because his "past crimes" [not actual crimes] were a while ago and so deemed not relevant, or if it's because papers are kind of semi obsolete and people use the twitters and facehole n' youtube and those things these days.

[wazzap24]

18 minutes ago, blandy said:

It's a bit chicken and egg with Corbyn, I think. Things he's always been good at are mainly the kind of things that have been the core part of the election - idealism, rallying people, speaking to people at meetings, opposing things he sees as morally wrong. What he did as well, was listen to advice about his image and presentation with the media etc. He's learnt not to get all irritable when someone asks an uncomfortable question and instead of sort of banking out criticism, or opposing views, he's been good at saying "that's a good question" or "that's a good point..." so he's looked and acted and been more leader like. There are traits or techniques of leadership that can be learnt, and he's learnt a fair few recently.

So all the improved image and people seeing him, (particularly in comparison to the hollow, question and people avoiding T.May) has given impetus and like you say people will see him as more credible and more worth listening to. A kind of virtuous circle.

The  difficulty is that to date he's been terrible at actually doing the other part of leadership - the ability to herd kittens in terms of his MPs. The large number of Labour MPs critical of him pretty much did all that was asked, by just shutting up during the campaign. His result, of not losing badly and gaining seats will maybe encourage a number of them to get more "onside" with him. Whatever the party, when the ordinary MPs don't have faith in their leader, when they see the leader doing badly, they can and do cause trouble and it escalates. T.May has maybe gifted him the chance to re-set the relationship with the other Labour MPs (and them to reset it with him, too). But if he goes back to making poor judgements, not thinking on his feet, and letting people who are not very good at presenting things do the media stuff, then his credit will drain away again.

I imagine the tories in-fighting will occupy the media for a while, so maybe Labour can start to look even more effective. Or maybe they'll just go back to amateur hour again.

He's been lucky that T.May is so utterly terrible.

Agree with all that. 

Its what's making it all so interesting. All these different factors in play at one time. so many ways it can go, so many people with invested interests, scratching their heads, wondering what's coming next. 

All ends up, I'm just happy thinking that whatever the outcome, things will have to change a bit and hopefully for the better. 

[jon_c]

1 hour ago, BOF said:

I may be wrong here but I get the impression people on mainland UK generally leave the minutae of Northern Irish day to day politics to itself i.e. you wouldn't know a whole lot about the politicians in NI other than maybe being familiar with their names.  Here's a little twitter thread about who May might be getting into bed with.

I'm fairly certain you could do a list of horrific opinions like this from some Tory MP's too, so they'd should be perfect bedfellows.