Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Mandy Lifeboats]

25 minutes ago, blandy said:

Strictly speaking, I don't think so, quite. I think "if Russia attacks Finland, NATO will come directly to their aid in countering any such attacks" - it wouldn't necessarily mean attacking Russia(n soil), more likely Russian forces doing the aggression. Pedantry I know.

Agree.......sort of.  

Would NATO attack Moscow?  Probably not.  

Would NATO attack military targets on Russian soil near the border?  Definitely. 

Otherwise Russia could deploy air defences in Russia that cover Russian Forces without and danger. 

[tinker]

If Russia attacks Finland , Finland kicks their arse on their own. NATO will probably linger in the background and watch the Russian arm forces get completely trounced.

[ender4]

First tanks from Germany won’t arrive in Ukraine until end of March or early April.

USA tanks have no immediate timeframe either. 
 

Will Ukraine get any tanks in time?

[sidcow]

21 minutes ago, ender4 said:

First tanks from Germany won’t arrive in Ukraine until end of March or early April.

USA tanks have no immediate timeframe either. 
 

Will Ukraine get any tanks in time?

I don't get this. 

Russia tried to overrun Kiev with their full complement of trained soldiers and their best armour and equipment with Ukraine under equipped. 

How do people think that Russia is now going to roll over Ukraine a year later with a bunch of ill trained conscripts and a significantly smaller number of trained professional soldiers, badly equipped with much less and older armour. 

Ukraine now probably has more armour than they started with (gifted by Russians) loads of NATO equipment and NATO training. 

How can these tanks arrive too late, too late for what? 

At worst there will be small Russian gains. Good chance of further stalemate, at best Ukraine push on regardless of the tanks. 

There is no way Russia are going to start making massive gains and look like winning from here. 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

7 hours ago, sidcow said:

I don't get this. 

Russia tried to overrun Kiev with their full complement of trained soldiers and their best armour and equipment with Ukraine under equipped. 

How do people think that Russia is now going to roll over Ukraine a year later with a bunch of ill trained conscripts and a significantly smaller number of trained professional soldiers, badly equipped with much less and older armour. 

Ukraine now probably has more armour than they started with (gifted by Russians) loads of NATO equipment and NATO training. 

How can these tanks arrive too late, too late for what? 

At worst there will be small Russian gains. Good chance of further stalemate, at best Ukraine push on regardless of the tanks. 

There is no way Russia are going to start making massive gains and look like winning from here. 

NATO is adopting a simple policy.  

If Russia retreats - Ukraine’s weapons are clearly sufficient - no better weapons needed.  

If Russia advances or succeeds - Ukraine’s weapons are not sufficient - they are given better weapons. 

Russia succeeded with air attacks against the power grid.  Patriots are provided. 

Russia is advancing small distances in several areas.  Tanks are provided.  
 

[LondonLax]

9 hours ago, ender4 said:

First tanks from Germany won’t arrive in Ukraine until end of March or early April.

USA tanks have no immediate timeframe either. 
 

Will Ukraine get any tanks in time?

It takes time to train on them and there needs to be a whole logistical chain set up as well. 

Presumably Ukraine will need to maintain a defensive position until all the pieces are in place to mount an offence. 

[Demitri_C]

So its not just UK government there is sleaze as alot of the aid money being provided is not being used for what it should be as some government officials have been sacked.

You really have to be scum to do this kind of thing when your in a war and there is millions of your people suffering. They should throw these people onto the battle field

[magnkarl]

16 hours ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Turkey controls the Black Sea.  That has greater than ever significance since Finland and Sweden joined NATO.  

St Petersburg is now useless as a naval base.  NATO can shut the Gulf of Finland from both sides.  Anything getting through there faces attackson all sides until it reaches the straits of Denmark.  Then it meets the Royal Navy and Royal Airforce.  

Murmansk is often clogged with ice. Canada has extensive anti ship and anti submarine capacity in the area.   

Murmansk's land supply route is one road and one rail track that run along Finland's border through forests and mountains.  Its also an area that Finland considers to have been stolen from them.  1,000 angry Finish Snipers and Special Forces operating there should be ample. 

The Mediterranean is controlled by Spain in the West and anything in the Suez Canal is going to be fairly easy to spot.  

It warms your heart. 

 

 

 

 

Murmansk is in Norway's zone though, not Canada. Norway is the leading anti-ship missile producer in the world. Canada uses the same tech as Norway, NSM fired by stealth boats and land installation, meant to cripple the North Sea fleet before it gets to Europe.

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

Why didnt Ukraine have Leopard tanks long before the invasion? After the annexation of Crimea, was it not in their thinking to acquire these tanks incase of future invasion?

im guessing Germany wouldnt have signed off on it as to not upset Putin anyway

Edited January 27, 2023 by BleedClaretAndBlue

[magnkarl]

10 hours ago, ender4 said:

First tanks from Germany won’t arrive in Ukraine until end of March or early April.

USA tanks have no immediate timeframe either. 
 

Will Ukraine get any tanks in time?

Though I agree with the sentiment, it generally takes 20 weeks to train on the MBTs. Ukraine will be trained in 8.

There's no need to deliver the tanks to let them sit in Ukraine and be liable targets for the few missiles Russia has left.

The Bradley, CV90, Archer (after training) and additional T-72's should be in situ shortly, together with additional anti-air systems.

Edited January 27, 2023 by magnkarl

[blandy]

5 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

generally takes 20 weeks to train on the MBTs. Ukraine will be trained in 8

If UA tank crew, used to T-72 or whatever, are the people who are going to be trained to operate the Leopard tanks, it’s not gonna take 8 weeks to train them, surely?  A conversion course would be pretty short. I guess for new recruits, then 8-10 weeks might be necessary?

[magnkarl]

6 minutes ago, blandy said:

If UA tank crew, used to T-72 or whatever, are the people who are going to be trained to operate the Leopard tanks, it’s not gonna take 8 weeks to train them, surely?  A conversion course would be pretty short. I guess for new recruits, then 8-10 weeks might be necessary?

From what I heard, the level up to the Challenger and Leopard is so vast that it'd take a long time to train most of Ukraine's tankers. I'm sure they could do it faster, but I'm also sure they'll ensure they are trained properly before sending them in with such expensive equipment. There may obviously be foreigners in UAF who already know how to operate the tanks, but in order to be successful they need to be involved in numbers.

In other news, Wagner is so depleted that they might merge with Kadyrov's gaggle-army.

Worth reading the whole thing.

Edited January 27, 2023 by magnkarl

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

36 minutes ago, blandy said:

If UA tank crew, used to T-72 or whatever, are the people who are going to be trained to operate the Leopard tanks, it’s not gonna take 8 weeks to train them, surely?  A conversion course would be pretty short. I guess for new recruits, then 8-10 weeks might be necessary?

I suspect they have been training in them allready for ages,  prudent planning ahead in war by the UK / US and the better trained people are,  the less chance Russia has of getting one to copy long term which is always a worry with this tech.  (Russia coundn't  make an Airfix sized copy currently but long term,  maybe)

The step up to these MBT's is huge as mentioned,  thermal targetting and target aquition are totally diiferent and way ahead of anything else on the battlefield.  

200-300 of the UK/US/D Mbt'S will probably do it,  with Artillary cover and infantary in support,  imagine that.  Putin is right to be scared of these tanks.

(As far as I know the UK Challenger is undefeated in battle.  RPG's will not kill it.)

[tonyh29]

1 hour ago, blandy said:

If UA tank crew, used to T-72 or whatever, are the people who are going to be trained to operate the Leopard tanks, it’s not gonna take 8 weeks to train them, surely?  A conversion course would be pretty short. I guess for new recruits, then 8-10 weeks might be necessary?

I went on a tank driving day and drove a Chieftain tank with no more than a 5 mins briefing , so i reckon another 10 mins to learn how to fire the gun thingys  , 5 mins for the communications , 1 min to learn where the fuel goes plus a few minutes to locate the first aid kit and coffee cup holder and they should be sorted 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

1 hour ago, magnkarl said:

Murmansk is in Norway's zone though, not Canada. Norway is the leading anti-ship missile producer in the world. Canada uses the same tech as Norway, NSM fired by stealth boats and land installation, meant to cripple the North Sea fleet before it gets to Europe.

Sorry. My bad.  

I was mixing up......

Canada and Norway.  

NATO zones with NORAD zones. 

Russia Ships trying to reach Europe with Russian planes trying to reach North America. 

Other than that........I was spot on. 

[chrisp65]

 

[tonyh29]

11 hours ago, ender4 said:

USA tanks have no immediate timeframe either. 
 

Will Ukraine get any tanks in time?

I saw a video (unverified ) a few weeks ago , that reported to show a train carrying a shit load of Abraham tanks  all primed and ready to go to Ukraine , presumably in anticipation of the green light being given  , I believe they have them stationed in Poland as part of  Operation "Atlantic Resolve"

assuming his video was current and not someone passing off a 10 year old video , i guess the American tanks could be there in days  ?

[magnkarl]

1 minute ago, tonyh29 said:

I saw a video (unverified ) a few weeks ago , that reported to show a train carrying a shit load of Abraham tanks  all primed and ready to go to Ukraine , presumably in anticipation of the green light being given  , I believe they have them stationed in Poland as part of  Operation "Atlantic Resolve"

assuming his video was current and not someone passing off a 10 year old video , i guess the American tanks could be there in days  ?

They won't be shipped over the border until they can be used. Training starts on M1 in the US this week.

[bickster]

14 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

 

I'll raise you with an added Villa fan

And for the infantry

[avfc1982am]

2 hours ago, magnkarl said:

From what I heard, the level up to the Challenger and Leopard is so vast that it'd take a long time to train most of Ukraine's tankers. I'm sure they could do it faster, but I'm also sure they'll ensure they are trained properly before sending them in with such expensive equipment. There may obviously be foreigners in UAF who already know how to operate the tanks, but in order to be successful they need to be involved in numbers.

In other news, Wagner is so depleted that they might merge with Kadyrov's gaggle-army.

Worth reading the whole thing.

My favourite response to this thread......