Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[chrisp65]

1 minute ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

If Anne Frank is living in your spare room you might be describing the Nazi occupation of Western Europe in WW2.  Have you thought about asking a few Americans over for tea?  

The Americans don’t want to actively search for Anne.

But they are drip feeding me just enough candles that I can keep searching on behalf of everyone.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

Is there any chance that you could explain your point without an analogy please.  My head hurts.  I guess that you are suggesting that America isn’t acting in Ukraine’s best interests???
 

[chrisp65]

28 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Is there any chance that you could explain your point without an analogy please.  My head hurts.  I guess that you are suggesting that America isn’t acting in Ukraine’s best interests???
 

No.

I’m suggesting that Russia wants the land, in the long term.

If that is at the cost of an expensive war, the loss of cannon fodder kids, the loss of tanks, and the loss of some perceived international prestige ranking points then they will take it.

If they retain that land, if they possess that coast, what the hell does any of the rest of it matter? We will have proved we were better than them, when they took and retained all that land. Yeah, what absolute mugs they are with their inflatable guns and shit planes.

Possession of the land is the only long term metric. Not best twitter profile.

Regain the land, then those other things have value.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

Taking land is one thing. Keeping it is another.  Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. Argentina's invasion of the Falklands.  Hitler's invasion of Russia.  USSR invasion of Poland in 1939.  These all show that military victory must be balanced with anticipating the wider political landscape. 

Iraq didn’t anticipate one of history's most powerful alliances arriving so quickly. Argentina thought Britain wouldn't be bothered.  Hitler thought the USA would not intervene in Europe.  The USSR thought it could maintain its economy whilst being involved in an arms race and being economic attacked.  

The only way this war would end quickly was a Russian victory.  Russia may have the land but things have gone wrong both military and politically.  The problems they face have an amazing similarity to the factors I mention above.  They didn't anticipate the EU, the UK, the USA, Japan, Australia, Switzerland and many others being united and forming a massively powerful economic enemy. They didn't anticipate Finland and Sweden aligning with NATO and thereby starting a new arms race.  They didn't anticipate NATO being so involved. They didn't feel there would be a political will in Europe to oppose them.  

I remember the collapse of the USSR. The West killed it but it took 40 years of economic war.  Russia is now in the same position. But the countries that aligned with USSR in the Warsaw Pact are predominantly NATO.  The sympathetic Yugoslavian countries are predominantly NATO.  NATO Is bigger, stronger and closer than ever.  Russia's long term prospects are presently bleak. 

 

[sidcow]

41 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Taking land is one thing. Keeping it is another.  Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. Argentina's invasion of the Falklands.  Hitler's invasion of Russia.  USSR invasion of Poland in 1939.  These all show that military victory must be balanced with anticipating the wider political landscape. 

Iraq didn’t anticipate one of history's most powerful alliances arriving so quickly. Argentina thought Britain wouldn't be bothered.  Hitler thought the USA would not intervene in Europe.  The USSR thought it could maintain its economy whilst being involved in an arms race and being economic attacked.  

The only way this war would end quickly was a Russian victory.  Russia may have the land but things have gone wrong both military and politically.  The problems they face have an amazing similarity to the factors I mention above.  They didn't anticipate the EU, the UK, the USA, Japan, Australia, Switzerland and many others being united and forming a massively powerful economic enemy. They didn't anticipate Finland and Sweden aligning with NATO and thereby starting a new arms race.  They didn't anticipate NATO being so involved. They didn't feel there would be a political will in Europe to oppose them.  

I remember the collapse of the USSR. The West killed it but it took 40 years of economic war.  Russia is now in the same position. But the countries that aligned with USSR in the Warsaw Pact are predominantly NATO.  The sympathetic Yugoslavian countries are predominantly NATO.  NATO Is bigger, stronger and closer than ever.  Russia's long term prospects are presently bleak. 

 

Yes, even if they do "win" the land,  which I don't think they will because the rest of the world (those who aren't on the fence) just won't let them, they'll keep supplying Ukraine and starving Russia of money and technology. 

But IF they did win it,  they're going to be fighting against guerilla war forever more.  Hideously costly.  Constant attacks on infrastructure and personnel. 

It's very difficult to see any outcome where Russia benefits long term. 

[bickster]

Tell me when you've stopped laughing at the latest Russian red line

 

 

[Demitri_C]

Russia saying they will be working for closer relations with the north koreans. All the world needs right now, two pschopaths getting together 

[bickster]

10 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Russia saying they will be working for closer relations with the north koreans. All the world needs right now, two pschopaths getting together 

North Korea were supposedly sending 10,000 soldiers to help out over a month ago... No sign of them yet, very few Syrians either and literally no Belarusian troops (unless you count the one's fighting FOR Ukraine)

Russia also said that Iran had already sent 1000 drones to help Russia and they were already in theatre... no-one has seen them either

The chances of any sentence starting with Russia says actually containing any truth is rather remote

[Demitri_C]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

North Korea were supposedly sending 10,000 soldiers to help out over a month ago... No sign of them yet, very few Syrians either and literally no Belarusian troops (unless you count the one's fighting FOR Ukraine)

Russia also said that Iran had already sent 1000 drones to help Russia and they were already in theatre... no-one has seen them either

The chances of any sentence starting with Russia says actually containing any truth is rather remote

Hope your right bicks. Last thing we need is these two getting together 

[Dante_Lockhart]

2 hours ago, Demitri_C said:

Hope your right bicks. Last thing we need is these two getting together 

Mis-read that due to the Korea talk and thought you called him Hans Blix

[Sam-AVFC]

3 hours ago, Demitri_C said:

Hope your right bicks. Last thing we need is these two getting together 

I doubt any impact of adding North Korean cooperation would even be noticed.

[Genie]

If this is true then it would illustrate just how desperate Putin / Russia are. 

Everyone else must have said no.

Edited August 15, 2022 by Genie

[Demitri_C]

15 minutes ago, Sam-AVFC said:

I doubt any impact of adding North Korean cooperation would even be noticed.

Problem is N Korea is sucha  isolated country we dont know what they do or dont have, having  another crazy person like putin is abit worrying 

[PussEKatt]

Looks like all the above countries do not want to back a loser.As far as N.Korea goes,hopefully Kim is not stupid

[Sam-AVFC]

10 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Problem is N Korea is sucha  isolated country we dont know what they do or dont have, having  another crazy person like putin is abit worrying 

We know they don't have enough food to feed their population. We know they do have pictures of supermarkets to 'fool' tourists from a distance. We know they do have nukes, but don't have anywhere near as many as Russia. We know they don't have advanced military tech. We know they do have cyber warfare capabilities, but less effective than Russia's. We know they do have a ridiculous man-child in charge who frequently talks big, but has done absolutely nothing to back it up. We know they do have Dennis Rodman as a state friend. We know they don't have any other friends on the world stage.

If it weren't for China propping them up North Korea would have collapsed long ago. I know which one of the two I'd be more concerned a bout throwing their full weight behind Russia and they're too savvy to do so.

Edited August 15, 2022 by Sam-AVFC

[Anthony]

5 hours ago, Demitri_C said:

Russia saying they will be working for closer relations with the north koreans. All the world needs right now, two pschopaths getting together 

I wonder how they spin such progress for domestic media?

2014: Putin plans on being with the great world leaders at the G8

2022: Putin anxious that Kim Jong Un won't pick up the phone.: 

[Genie]

I imagine if NK got a bit feisty China would tell them to pipe down and get in their corner.

[blandy]

On 12/08/2022 at 20:41, sidcow said:

It's very difficult to see any outcome where Russia benefits long term. 

TBH neither side will benefit long term or "win". It's impossible.

A large chunk of Ukraine has been raised to the ground, millions dispersed and millions more forcibly moved to the far end of Russia. Tens of thousands of dead and injured on both sides, Russia sanctioned and more isolated and will be for decades...

[Anthony]

1 minute ago, blandy said:

TBH neither side will benefit long term or "win". It's impossible.

A large chunk of Ukraine has been raised to the ground, millions dispersed and millions more forcibly moved to the far end of Russia. Tens of thousands of dead and injured on both sides, Russia sanctioned and more isolated and will be for decades...

I've been ruminating on the change for Ukraine, in particular, corruption. Things were rather bad before the invasion, anti corruption being Zelenskyy's main platform, with the possible exception of the armed forces post 2014. I have a feeling he was losing the battle.

If you look at the various causes of corruption, one of them is the feeling that 'the state does **** all for me and means nothing to me, I'm out for everything I can get', then during a war such as this, that feeling diminishes and people act in the interest of society a little more. It isn't black and white; here in the UK we've always had spivs, and the black market was very much a thing during WW2 for example, but I wonder to what extent is this war helping to reduce corruption, and to what extent this reduction will remain after the war is over? We know how it will look if Putin wins, but if Ukraine successfully kicks the invaders out? Will corruption be seen as unpatriotic, or possibly even pro-Russian?

[bielesibub]

Making closer friends to NK, hopefully this is a sign of Russia becoming the ex-bully of the global playground. They are now desperately trying to be friends with any of the 'playground unfriendables'/outcasts/etc.., the ones no one else in their right mind would go near.