Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[KentVillan]

10 minutes ago, Cizzler said:

My Lai?

My Lai was horrific and indefensible, yep. About 500 Vietnamese died (according to official Vietnamese govt account). I feel like Russia are currently doing stuff that is an order of magnitude worse than that.

[Cizzler]

1 minute ago, KentVillan said:

My Lai was horrific and indefensible, yep. About 500 Vietnamese died (according to official Vietnamese govt account). I feel like Russia are currently doing stuff that is an order of magnitude worse than that.

Ehh both cases involve innocent civilians (defenseless children + women) being raped and murdered - I think they are the same magnitude of absolutely awful.

[KentVillan]

3 minutes ago, Cizzler said:

Ehh both cases involve innocent civilians (defenseless children + women) being raped and murdered - I think they are the same magnitude of absolutely awful.

I agree, but Russia are doing this in multiple locations across Ukraine at the same time. By "order of magnitude" I meant the numbers, not the depravity of the specific act. I agree My Lai was in itself a similar level of unspeakable war crime to something like Bucha, but my sense is that Russia have done & are doing this in many locations across Ukraine.

[KentVillan]

 

 

[KentVillan]

This is fascinating and shows how predictable the current situation was, given Hitchens was talking 11 years ago

Edited April 6, 2022 by KentVillan

[chrisp65]

The murderous racist regime in Israel would be a good shout for war crimes.

Didn’t the UK have involvement in decapitations in Malaya for a good few years? Denied at first until photographs of soldiers holding heads emerged, and then a head was found on display in an army regiment’s ‘museum’. 500,000 civilians put in concentrations camps, crops and villages destroyed.

 

[choffer]

1 minute ago, chrisp65 said:

The murderous racist regime in Israel would be a good shout for war crimes.

It comes to something when even the Israelis are appalled at your behaviour…

 

[KentVillan]

8 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

The murderous racist regime in Israel would be a good shout for war crimes.

Didn’t the UK have involvement in decapitations in Malaya for a good few years? Denied at first until photographs of soldiers holding heads emerged, and then a head was found on display in an army regiment’s ‘museum’. 500,000 civilians put in concentrations camps, crops and villages destroyed.

 

These are examples worth discussing in the same breath, definitely, but Israel I mentioned above I don't think have hit the same scale of civilian deaths in such a short space of time. Malaya definitely also a disgusting situation, but were the numbers comparable? I think the Malayan emergency was about 3000 civilian deaths, which is horrific, but it looks like Ukraine is experiencing something another level above that.

Not defending either of these situations, but it conveys the gravity of the Russia-Ukraine situation that it is *already* worse.

[magnkarl]

9 hours ago, KentVillan said:

The thing that really worries me is Russia does still have some big weapons in its arsenal that it hasn’t used yet (or has used sparingly) - chemical weapons, thermobaric bombs, tactical nukes, etc - and as the siege mentality hardens, you wonder what is holding them back

Russia has already used thermobaric bombs, but the issue is that they've also lost a lot of the launchers to drones. The TOS-1A also has very little ability to be hidden when firing, it needs to be in an open space, which makes it extremely open to Switchblades. NATO's red line goes at chemical weapons so I don't think Putin dares to use it. Now that Finland has pretty much announced they'll join NATO Putin will need to cover another 830 miles of NATO border. Ukraine's army assets should now be bigger than what Russia currently has available for this war. With Western intel Ukraine should be able to overload certain areas and hopefully halt any offensive from Russia like with the famous convoy.

Analysts estimate that Ukraine now has around 400.000 active troops. Russia still only has their preliminary number - 30-50.000 lost since the start.

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

The Ukrainians have captured a fair few of those thermobaric weapons and even used them to fire at Russian positions yesterday according to a fair few reports.

[HanoiVillan]

9 hours ago, KentVillan said:

Given all the whataboutery doing the rounds at the moment…

I’m interested in any calm, reasoned perspectives on where Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine rank against the worst things the Western powers have done.

I’m not an apologist for US aggression , but my instinct is that you have to go quite a long way back (maybe Hiroshima & Nagasaki?) to find anything as bad as what the Russians are doing at the moment. (Edit: and yes I realise there was a different context to the atom bombs, Japan being an aggressor, etc. But massive civilian death count)

People saying Iraq / Afghanistan are wide of the mark IMO… yes, those were low points for the west (esp Iraq), but the civilian death counts were lower and certainly not systematic ethnic cleansing.

But open to hearing about genuine examples of similar horrors. Just trying to put this in perspective… how bad exactly is it? It feels like it’s exceptionally bad

Studies suggested that perhaps a million people died an earlier death due to the Iraq war IIRC, a that was *before* the rise of Isis, if you were to include them as a consequence of the invasion it would be even higher. 

I don't know how many people have died in Ukraine, I guess it is less than a million, but then the war has been much shorter. 

I'm not sure whether there is any value in comparing them though. Starting an illegal and unjustified war is the supreme International crime, it's not really a question of body count. 

[Awol]

This is massive for Ukraine - and Russia

 

 

[OutByEaster?]

I think it's possibly more massive for the US.

There's a bit of a gap I think developing in what is in the interests of the Ukraine (ending the war as quickly as possible through a negotiated peace that stops the killing) and the US (prolonging the war and continuing to damage Russia).

Of course, it might be that if enough arms are supplied, then the war can be ended quickly by Ukraine on the battlefield or that they can establish a bigger advantage that helps their negotiating position - but personally I think that anything that looks likely to prolong this war probably isn't a good thing.

 

 

[LondonLax]

3 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

I think it's possibly more massive for the US.

There's a bit of a gap I think developing in what is in the interests of the Ukraine (ending the war as quickly as possible through a negotiated peace that stops the killing) and the US (prolonging the war and continuing to damage Russia).

Of course, it might be that if enough arms are supplied, then the war can be ended quickly by Ukraine on the battlefield or that they can establish a bigger advantage that helps their negotiating position - but personally I think that anything that looks likely to prolong this war probably isn't a good thing.

 

 

As you say, they need to be able to negotiate peace from a position of strength, otherwise it's simply a case of capitulation. 

[Awol]

1 minute ago, LondonLax said:

As you say, they need to be able to negotiate peace from a position of strength, otherwise it's simply a case of capitulation. 

Exactly, leaving Ukraine weaker and waiting for the next round of Russian predation. I cannot understand people in the west telling Ukrainians they should be willing to give up vast chunks of their country (and leave fellow citizens to its genocidal occupiers) so we can all ‘move on’. As long as they want to keep fighting they deserve our support. 

[Genie]

Putin is on the ropes for several reasons, a negotiated peace might let him off to fight another day. 

[HanoiVillan]

9 hours ago, KentVillan said:

My Lai was horrific and indefensible, yep. About 500 Vietnamese died (according to official Vietnamese govt account). I feel like Russia are currently doing stuff that is an order of magnitude worse than that.

All of these happened with US knowledge and varying levels of real support (graphic from Vincent Bevins' 'The Jakarta Method'):

The Vietnam War itself led to somewhere between 1.5 and 3 million deaths, and even to this day the war still lives on, in people living with the health consequences of the use of napalm and Agent Orange, and people - especially children - encountering unexploded ordnance in the Vietnamese and Laotian countryside.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

4 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

but personally I think that anything that looks likely to prolong this war probably isn't a good thing.

It's a difficult one for sure,  prolonging it is in the best interests of almost everyone as Russia needs to be punished on a level that it will never think of doing this again but that doesn't currently help Ukraine.  In the end Putin cannot be seen to have won anything,  this is the most important thing for the long term.  I don't think they deserve anything now other than humiliation.

Give them the weapons' they are asking for is the 1st step and see what happens with those.  We know where the Russians are going,  get heavy guns on them and make it constant all day every day.  They will be close to their own border,  they will run home eventually,  they don't have the desire,  skill or courage for a proper fight anymore.  The US needs to come up with something amazing and because of the war crimes committed I would hope for a 10 Billion dollar pledge for weapons (Small amounts for the US).  Not 500 m here and there.  Big numbers to scare Russia to death.  They are there for the taking now.  The Russian army is pretty useless 1 on 1 the UK would smash them so I say carry on and hurt them properly.  I hope there is something over the weekend maybe.

 

 

[blandy]

17 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

There's a bit of a gap I think developing in what is in the interests of the Ukraine (ending the war as quickly as possible through a negotiated peace that stops the killing) and the US (prolonging the war and continuing to damage Russia).

Whoa! You seem to be holding some (maybe subconscious, maybe conscious) biases there. Firstly that it’s in Ukraine’s interest to end the shooting quickly, (having lost part of their land to the invader, who may start war again in a year…) and secondly that the US is somehow prolonging the war out of selfish interests.

Ukraine is repeatedly asking for more weapons from the USA and West, Ukraine is saying they will not give up, or give up their territory. It’s Ukraine’s decision alone as to what’s in their interest and negotiations are not seriously on the table, unfortunately, just Russian trolling.

The US is much more worried about China than Russia.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

30 minutes ago, blandy said:

The US is much more worried about China than Russia.

How the world deals with Russia is important long term.  China will be watching and assessing.

For Russia a slap on the wrist wont do this time.