Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Zatman]

3 hours ago, Genie said:

I said a day or 2 ago, I have a feeling the deal will be 

1. Don’t join Nato

2. Don’t develop nuclear weapons

3. Eradicate Nazism

Then Russia will scuttle back claiming victory.

They consider the Ukrainian government Nazis so they would need a new government before they can claim that

[Genie]

1 hour ago, Zatman said:

They consider the Ukrainian government Nazis so they would need a new government before they can claim that

They say it, but the can’t believe it really. Zelensky and Groysman are both Jewish.

[chrisp65]

6 minutes ago, Genie said:

They say it, but the can’t believe it really. Zelensky and Groysman are both Jewish.

Oh, so now Jews can’t be nazi’s? Bit racist mate.

[magnkarl]

Repayment of 111 million dollars due tomorrow, in dollars. If they don’t pay Russia will likely be defaulted internationally. Here’s to further pressure on Putin.

[Genie]

9 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Oh, so now Jews can’t be nazi’s? Bit racist mate.

Fair point

[Genie]

4 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Repayment of 111 million dollars due tomorrow, in dollars. If they don’t pay Russia will likely be defaulted internationally. Here’s to further pressure on Putin.

They must take that much every hour just for gas. They’ll surely have that lying around.

[magnkarl]

3 minutes ago, Genie said:

They must take that much every hour just for gas. They’ll surely have that lying around.

Possibly, but Russia also has other things to pay for, 900.000 soldiers amongst other things. 
Many experts seem to think tomorrow will be huge, repayments during sanctions isn’t exactly my field, so I’m not sure..

[Awol]

1 hour ago, KentVillan said:

The sad thing is Zelenskyy *did* try to reach a compromise with Russia when he first came in and got hammered and let down by all sides. It’s really no surprise at all that he has gone down this path.

The only thing I don’t really get is the obsession with a No Fly Zone. As has been said repeatedly, most of the damage has been done by heavy artillery ground forces. And NATO have done a pretty good job of arming Ukraine to the teeth in an efficient way.

Ukrainian calls for a No Fly Zone are easy to understand if you just say NATO going to war with Russia instead. A NFZ isn’t *only* shooting down Russian aircraft, it requires Russian air defences on the ground to be neutralised in depth. That means destroying systems and radars within Russia itself that can reach out over Ukrainian airspace. The NFZ isn’t about a NFZ. 

We (NATO) are doing to Ukraine something similar to what the US did to UK in 1940 (although Ukraine isn’t being charged for the aid), i.e. providing some assistance with equipment and being broadly supportive, but not risking war directly with the fascist regime.  It’s the old ‘fighting to the last Ukrainian’ strategy. 

[foreveryoung]

24 minutes ago, Genie said:

They must take that much every hour just for gas. They’ll surely have that lying around.

Probably find it down his mate Ambramovich's couch, or on one of them boats he owns.

[Genie]

11 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

Probably find it down his mate Ambramovich's couch, or on one of them boats he owns.

Or one of his friends in China will wire him a few hundred million.

[sidcow]

There's definitely something funny about that TV presenter with the anti war message. 

She's virtually giving press conferences now. It's very strange. 

[fruitvilla]

8 hours ago, StefanAVFC said:

Call me cynical but this woman on Russian TV looks suspicious as anything.

I find it hard to believe they don't have a delay in the broadcast, especially from the main news channel in Russia.

Also the sign is half in English, half Russian? Why?

This from a Ukrainian MP got me thinking about it.

 

The actual news presenter reminds me of someone ...  hmnn ... who could it be? Sarah somebody or another.     I know Sarah Huckabee Sanders. Has that look.

[bickster]

12 minutes ago, sidcow said:

There's definitely something funny about that TV presenter with the anti war message. 

She's virtually giving press conferences now. It's very strange. 

Seen any other Russian protestors giving interviews lately?

The BBC appear to have fallen for it hook line and sinker though

[tonyh29]

 

[ender4]

1 hour ago, magnkarl said:

Possibly, but Russia also has other things to pay for, 900.000 soldiers amongst other things. 
Many experts seem to think tomorrow will be huge, repayments during sanctions isn’t exactly my field, so I’m not sure..

Won’t they pay the local soldiers in roubles? So shouldn’t make a difference.

Edited March 15, 2022 by ender4

[sidcow]

I can't help wondering how people from Syria are going to adapt to bitter cold, sleeting, muddy Ukraine eating Russian rations.  

[KentVillan]

 

 

36 minutes ago, sidcow said:

I can't help wondering how people from Syria are going to adapt to bitter cold, sleeting, muddy Ukraine eating Russian rations.  

Apparently Syria actually has pretty cold winters, so Ukraine in March / April won't be quite as much of a shock as expected... hard to imagine a few thousand Syrians making the difference though

[magnkarl]

The issues of controlling the territory they’ve gained is starting to cost badly.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

11 hours ago, Genie said:

They must take that much every hour just for gas. They’ll surely have that lying around.

The issue isn't that they don't have the wealth to pay. The issue is that they must pay in US dollars. Sanctions mean many of their normal sources are no longer available.  The ruble has also plunged in value.  Anyone willing to sell them US dollars will be asking for inflated prices and will not want payment in rubles.  

Russia needs to find  countries who will act as middle men who will acquire sanctioned goods on their behalf.  But what will they want in payment?  A dozen air superiority fighters?  Gas and oil?  Gold?  Logging rights to Ukrainian forests?  

Whatever it is - its going to cost Russia. 

[Panto_Villan]

13 hours ago, KentVillan said:

The sad thing is Zelenskyy *did* try to reach a compromise with Russia when he first came in and got hammered and let down by all sides. It’s really no surprise at all that he has gone down this path.

The only thing I don’t really get is the obsession with a No Fly Zone. As has been said repeatedly, most of the damage has been done by heavy artillery ground forces. And NATO have done a pretty good job of arming Ukraine to the teeth in an efficient way.

So one of the theories going around is that Ukraine doesn't actually really care about joining NATO because there was no real chance of them joining NATO even before the war started, which means it's something they can easily give up in negotiations to hand Putin a superficial win (although in reality Putin is almost certainly threatened by Ukraine joining EU rather than NATO, hence the war).

The whole "no fly zone" allows Zelenskyy to prepare the ground for that concession with his own people by saying "I'm not sure NATO is actually worth joining anyway" which apparently he actually said recently. So it may just be theatre. NATO's big and strong enough to weather a bit of self-serving criticism to help out the Ukrainians here. 

I mean, obviously the Ukrainians would like NATO aircraft patrolling their skies and firing missiles into Russia to knock out their air defences but I'm sure the political and military leadership were well aware that wasn't actually going to happen. As Awol mentioned earlier it would be an outright declaration of war on Russia by another name.