Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Walmley_Villa]

With the bollocks the Russians are now coming out with it feels like they are either trying to provoke the west or manage the message to their people i.e. justification/NATO bad guys etc

[choffer]

I think I’ve misheard something there. I’m almost certain that the UK defence sec just said in his briefing that the UK was deploying RFI Turd Surge. 
 

[foreveryoung]

11 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

A few dozen us top of the line drones would turn it into an inferno, they don’t even need migs. 

Couple of USAF A10s 40 miles of the gattling guns. Bŕrrrrrrrrrrr!! Job done, what's next!!

[sidcow]

5 minutes ago, Walmley_Villa said:

With the bollocks the Russians are now coming out with it feels like they are either trying to provoke the west or manage the message to their people i.e. justification/NATO bad guys etc

Various NATO members have been saying for a while that false scenarios would be put out by Russia to justify their actions.

[sidcow]

4 minutes ago, choffer said:

I think I’ve misheard something there. I’m almost certain that the UK defence sec just said in his briefing that the UK was deploying RFI Turd Surge. 
 

It's our new weapon designed to shit on the enemy from a great height.

[sidcow]

Apparently Turkey are hosting talks at the weekend.   It's being reported that the Russian stance is softening and suggestions that they only want to demilitarise the Donbas region.

They've bitten off more than they can chew and they're shitting themselves now I reckon.  I also think Putin is coming under massive pressure internally.   If that's true it's a massive comedown.

[HKP90]

5 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Apparently Turkey are hosting talks at the weekend.   It's being reported that the Russian stance is softening and suggestions that they only want to demilitarise the Donbas region.

They've bitten off more than they can chew and they're shitting themselves now I reckon.  I also think Putin is coming under massive pressure internally.   If that's true it's a massive comedown.

I hope that is true, but if it is, whilst obviously positive, I can see this happening again in a few years, in Ukraine or somewhere else when Russia restocks their military.

As you say, they overreached, and now they can claim they were only after the Donbas anyway, spin it as a win in Russia, and no-one learns anything. We need to punish these f**kers, and make it absolutely clear that being a dickless, piece of warmongering s**t does not get results. 

China are watching with maps of Taiwan at the ready.  

[magnkarl]

8 minutes ago, HKP90 said:

I hope that is true, but if it is, whilst obviously positive, I can see this happening again in a few years, in Ukraine or somewhere else when Russia restocks their military.

As you say, they overreached, and now they can claim they were only after the Donbas anyway, spin it as a win in Russia, and no-one learns anything. We need to punish these f**kers, and make it absolutely clear that being a dickless, piece of warmongering s**t does not get results. 

China are watching with maps of Taiwan at the ready.  

Taiwan actually has a fair few patriot systems already in action, it'd be like an endless surge of Soviet made aircraft running into a wall.. Bearing in mind that much of Chinas hardware is Russian I wouldn't bet on them winning easily either. Small nations can defend quite well with high tech and high morale.

[StefanAVFC]

1 hour ago, villa4europe said:

they project manager says the polish are proper spooked by all this

Ehhhhhhhhh

Kinda but mostly not. My wife was, but she isn't now.

The main emotion is the willingness to help with refugees, more than fear of invasion tbh.

Edited March 9, 2022 by StefanAVFC

[magnkarl]

In the facebook group Ukraine in Crisis you can see videos from Russian shopping centres being shuttered and closed, with all EU/US/Japanese/Aus brands pulling out. There's nothing left, not even Lidl.

[markavfc40]

Apparently the British embassy in Brussels doesn't issue visas to Ukrainians and it is done at Brussels station by a private company. Meaning someone is making a pretty penny from the Ukrainians  misery. 

[Mic09]

22 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Apparently Turkey are hosting talks at the weekend.   It's being reported that the Russian stance is softening and suggestions that they only want to demilitarise the Donbas region.

They've bitten off more than they can chew and they're shitting themselves now I reckon.  I also think Putin is coming under massive pressure internally.   If that's true it's a massive comedown.

I hope you are correct - I'm a bit more sceptical about the Russian military 'failure'. From the start I assumed Putin must have some concrete aims and that wasn't necessarily to take over the entire country. This scattered bombardment tactic and sitting back on Kiev might suggest that. 

In poker terms, I assumed Putin went all in in order to collect a relatively small pot (Donbas Region, Crimea, change of Ukraine Constitution to stop them joining NATO).

But on the personal level I prefer your way thinking - I hope Putin is shitting himself and will slowly back down seeing what mess he made. 

[magnkarl]

Battle hardened Ichkerians, Dagestanians and Georgians en masse are joining the Ukranian army as volunteers. I was waiting for Chechnya's supressed population to try to get out of Russia - seems this is it.

[KentVillan]

https://mwi.usma.edu/miscalculation-and-myopia-in-moscow-understanding-russias-regime-change-folly/

Quote

MISCALCULATION AND MYOPIA IN MOSCOW: UNDERSTANDING RUSSIA’S REGIME CHANGE FOLLY

Benjamin Denison | 03.09.22

As Russian forces in Ukraine approach two weeks in the country since their invasion, it has become increasingly clear that Russian efforts to achieve a quick military victory in Ukraine and replace the regime in Kyiv with a more pliable one have failed. Vladimir Putin premised the initial plan of operations seemingly on the idea that military victory would come quickly, toppling the government of Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In its place, Russia would establish a pro-Russian leader that would sign some form of a political agreement with Russia regarding Ukraine’s “demilitarization and denazification,” allowing the Russian military to largely withdraw from the country. Over the first weeks of the war, it has become clear that this naïve plan, based on overly optimistic assumptions about how the Ukrainian public would support toppling the government in Kyiv, has failed.

With the initial aspiration of being welcomed as liberators unfulfilled, Russian forces will now likely need to engage in occupation and pacification to achieve their goals. Putin has continually mentioned he was not interested in occupying the country, yet it will be the only means to achieve his goals and ensure that any lasting resistance will not oust an installed leader, as is likely to happen without continual Russian military support. His desire to avoid occupation appears smart given the historical track record of military occupation. But Putin has appeared to have fallen into a common regime change folly where, in deciding to engage in regime change, he did not consider that a military occupation would most likely be required to prop up the newly imposed regime. Like many other would-be regime changers in history, he has underestimated the costs his regime change plan will require.

This error is common throughout history. Sadly, the mistaken belief in the low cost of this option makes aggressors more likely to launch a war in the first place, only realizing after they invade that they created a quagmire. Now, with an occupation seemingly required to achieve any major political success, it is worth taking time to more fully consider why Putin and the Russian military overlooked occupation in prewar planning and—based on how militaries traditionally engage in occupation—what it will likely look like in this case if Ukraine’s current government is eventually removed.

Regime Change Myopia

Putin has premised his political goals of the war seemingly on the idea that regime change could produce a more pro-Russian government in Kyiv at a relatively cheap price. Because of this, much like most would-be regime changers throughout history, Putin and the Russian military appear to have not invested heavily in postwar planning for what an occupation would look like. And why would they? If the goal and premise of the invasion was to replace the leadership quickly, impose a new government, and leave, then there did not need to be much investment in occupation planning. Given how little planning the Russian military appears to have engaged in for even the first stage of military operations, it seems even less planning attention was given to the postinvasion phase of operations that Russia would require to translate military success into political success.

 

[Mic09]

5 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Ehhhhhhhhh

Kinda but mostly not. My wife was, but she isn't now.

The main emotion is the willingness to help with refugees, more than fear of invasion tbh.

My Polish family is a bit split - everyone is backing refugee help, but other than that you have two camps.

1. The hard realists who believe Russia will not attack NATO;

2. The emotional 'motherly' feeling of fear, often equating Russia to the USSR. They are concerned the Putin is a madman and if he wants to he will simply attack anyone.

I think the latter group is smaller and more emotion driven. 

[chrisp65]

Here’s something few have ever heard of that we can all be experts on if Russia are allowed to get away with gaining a metre of territory in Ukraine: The Suwalki Corridor.

A massive escalation from Ukraine as it means putting feet on NATO ground. But it’s why any form of appeasement would be a desperately bad idea.

 

[magnkarl]

The amount of footage we get from bodycams of extremely potent Ukranian fighters in this war just shows how hopeless it is for Russia to go in with massive armoured columns. Here's a RPG-7 (Russian/Soviet made) taking out two tanks in two shots. 

The Ukranian army has more balls than NATO/Russia combined. Who the hell hits something at that range with a RPG?

[The Fun Factory]

3 hours ago, bickster said:

Both confirmed by independent sources now

The UK TV News is reporting this in a really different way to online sources. Places like Bellingcat are verifying a lot of the claims, in fact they were the ones that verified the General one (see up thread for how it was discovered)

If you only get the news from BBC / ITV etc you'd think Russian forces have the upper hand, it really isn't the case. They aren't reporting it very well at all 

Isn't Russia advancing in the south? If the plan is to cut Ukraine off from the black sea and slowly starve them to surrender it could work. The troops around Kyiv could be a bit of a red herring. 

Edited March 9, 2022 by The Fun Factory

[KentVillan]

6 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Here’s something few have ever heard of that we can all be experts on if Russia are allowed to get away with gaining a metre of territory in Ukraine: The Suwalki Corridor.

A massive escalation from Ukraine as it means putting feet on NATO ground. But it’s why any form of appeasement would be a desperately bad idea.

 

Yep - and IMO Kaliningrad has always been the huge flaw in the "This is all NATO's fault... we didn't respect Russia's sphere of influence" line of argument.

Bear in mind, too, that Poland and the Baltic States have by far the highest levels of public support for NATO membership.

[foreveryoung]

33 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Ehhhhhhhhh

Kinda but mostly not. My wife was, but she isn't now.

The main emotion is the willingness to help with refugees, more than fear of invasion tbh.

Same with my Mrs, shows true emotion for the Ukrainians, not too worried for her own country, as she understands if the Russians enter Poland Putin and Russia will be F***** once and for all.