Steve Bruce

[TRO]

I think he has addressed part of the job and got us hard to beat to create points and confidence to move on to phase 2

whether it is coaching or the players being substandard i am still unsure.I still see flaws in players i find hard to blame coaches for.....but hey, its opinions. I will still not be surprised to see some in coming activity.

I think there are some reasonable points put forward on both sides of the argument.

I still favour the argument, bearing in mind i have no authority on training and coaching, that more time is required to complete this job.

I can't think of any manager that would have fixed this job to everyones satisfaction with the time alloted.

Edited April 26, 2017 by TRO

[sparrow1988]

2 hours ago, villalad21 said:

Never rated Bruce as a manager. I see him as a championship manager, but in the premier league he is clueless. I hope Tony don't see Steve as a long term solution.

I don't think any club sees any manager as long term anymore. The way football has gone lately, even the relatively successful ones don't stay at a club very long, either by the choice of the owners or the manager. 

Look at Man City with anyone, Guardiola at Barca (4yrs) and Bayern (3 yrs), Conte at Juve (3 yrs), Mourinho everywhere he goes (3yrs average), Ancelloti etc. The only one that I can think of at the moment who doesn't do this is Wenger. Only God knows how this one is going to end or when.... Probably a bloody coup initiated by Arsenal Fan TV. Klopp maybe but we'll see with Liverpool how long that lasts.

I don't see Bruce being here in 2-3 years from now unless he really obtains unparalleled success. Even Bruce only stays at clubs for approximately two years on average if you look at his managerial career whether by design of the club or Bruce. I haven't looked at his record of sackings or resignations just the durations that he is at a club.

I just hope that Tony, Wyness and their band of merry men are keeping tabs on managers around and lining up possible replacements for different scenarios (promotion push failing, advancing after stagnating following promotion and of course the inevitable conquering of Europe) and updating this list of replacements regularly.

I don't really care who the manager is once we are winning games and I can enjoy a season for the first time since O'Neill. Although I did enjoy this season (at least parts - it was a bit of a rollercoaster).

[briny_ear]

1 hour ago, blandy said:

I don't think the first claim stands up. He's produced mid table form - sort of quite a way outside play off form (let alone winning the play-offs form, and definitely not autmoatic promotion form).

Also, on the second part, Bruce seems to think he's still got a massive/major job to do to get to where he wants to be 

That said, I hope you're right on the third part. He deserves the chance to go for it.

This sort of calculation is always a bit dodgy but Bruce's form over 46 matches would have got us 69 points so in 8th place and 7 points off the play off places. So as a very rough benchmark, he needs to do as well next season and find about 9-10 more points. That doesn't feel so far off the play offs but, of course, very far off the automatic promotion places.

[Stevo985]

1 hour ago, blandy said:

I don't think the first claim stands up. He's produced mid table form - sort of quite a way outside play off form (let alone winning the play-offs form, and definitely not autmoatic promotion form).

Also, on the second part, Bruce seems to think he's still got a massive/major job to do to get to where he wants to be 

That said, I hope you're right on the third part. He deserves the chance to go for it.

I haven't checked since, but 3 games ago he was bang on playoff form (if extrapolated over a full season). I don't think the results since would have changed that by very much.

I certainly wouldn't say it was "quite a way outside playoff form"

[Stevo985]

18 minutes ago, briny_ear said:

This sort of calculation is always a bit dodgy but Bruce's form over 46 matches would have got us 69 points so in 8th place and 7 points off the play off places. So as a very rough benchmark, he needs to do as well next season and find about 9-10 more points. That doesn't feel so far off the play offs but, of course, very far off the automatic promotion places.

Ah ok. When I last looked at it it would have produced 74 points, so fair enough it's dropped a bit since then.

Edit: I make it he's gained 51 points from 33 games. That's 71 points over a full season. How far outside the playoffs that is depends on the season.

Edited April 26, 2017 by Stevo985

[blandy]

I saw a table done of every teams points haul from the date Bruce was appointed to just before the SHA game. Villa were 12th. Accepted the win on Sunday may have changed position upwards by a place, but over the period he's been in charge the gap to the top 6 has got bigger. I'm in favour of letting him have a proper go next season, I'm not saying sack him, that would be a bad move, though my own faith in him is limited (I accept I'm not good at judging managers or predicting the future, and am happy to let the club people decide what's best in that regard).

[GREAT_BEARD_OF_ZEUS]

As much as I get why we're doing it, I don't think you can take his average points return this season and use as a bearing on what'll happen across 46 games next time out.

This season has seen us go through so much fluctuation, it's been like 4 mini-seasons in one:

1. The Di Matteo mini-era: Everything was new from owner to our divisional surroundings.  Not only that but we had massively unrealistic expectations/pressure to start well, loads of new faces trying to bond/gel together, as well as loads of crap going on in the background.  In hindsight it was naive to think much could be achieved in that period.

2. Enter the Bruce: Lots going on... New manager bounce coupled with the benefit of us having had a bit of time to get used to things, yet many underlying problems to deal with.  If you class this as the period between him first taking charge and the end of the year, then the average points return here was just under 1.7 points per game, which over a full season equals 78 points, right on the knife edge of making/not making the playoffs.

3. The January 'boom or bust' period: It smacks of a gamble gone wrong - trying to fix too many things at once.  It was probably worth a go, but ultimately it just threw us back into that world of unfamiliarity we suffered with at the start of the season, not to mention the extra work involved in transfers which probably had a negative impact on game prep.  No point doing the maths, that was a bad time.

4. The here and now: Better players in, a bit more settled, but lets face it, we're probably still only halfway down page 1 of 4 on Steve's to do list.  This period which I've (some would say conveniently) taken as the first win of the year, i.e. when we finally got our **** together, equates to a return of just over 2.08 points per game or 96 points for a full season.  A Championship winning return.

 

It'd be foolish to assume the form we've been in since that first win this year is how we're going to go about next season - especially as the consensus of opinion is that we've been lucky, grinding out wins despite some pretty poor football being played.  However I think you can take some solace in the fact that Bruce (hopefully) won't be having to deal with anywhere near the kind of upheaval, unfamiliarity or behind the scenes problems as this time around.

[Eastie]

59 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

Ah ok. When I last looked at it it would have produced 74 points, so fair enough it's dropped a bit since then.

Edit: I make it he's gained 51 points from 33 games. That's 71 points over a full season. How far outside the playoffs that is depends on the season.

Normally 73 points is  about what's needed but this season is very much unusually  higher .

If he is averaging 71 for the season then that's very close to play off requirements although I'd hope that we are targeting automatic places rather than play offs and to do that there needs to be a considerable improvement 

 

Edited April 26, 2017 by Eastie

[sheepyvillian]

We've spent how much ? And that's just to make us hard to beat .God knows , how much it's going to cost to get us playing decent football . I'm sure someone will have some stats at hand to enlighten me .

[Stevo985]

8 minutes ago, Eastie said:

Normally 73 points is  about what's needed but this season is very much unusually  higher .

If he is averaging 71 for the season then that's very close to play off requirements although I'd hope that we are targeting automatic places rather than play offs and to do that there needs to be a considerable improvement 

 

Exactly, which was my original point.

He's already got us more or less at playoff form. It needs to be better than that, don't get me wrong.

BUt we're not talking about turning bottom half form into title winning form.

[Stevo985]

3 minutes ago, sheepyvillian said:

We've spent how much ? And that's just to make us hard to beat .God knows , how much it's going to cost to get us playing decent football . I'm sure someone will have some stats at hand to enlighten me .

Superfluous

[sheepyvillian]

Just now, Stevo985 said:

Superfluous

If the cap fits .

[mykeyb]

2 hours ago, TRO said:

he then limped in to Jan and went for the populist signings.

If that bit is true he should be sacked.

[mykeyb]

I would be happier if points returns were being compared to finishing 2nd rather than 6th as surely that has to be minimum requirement and not the play off lottery even if that's how Bruce seems to achieve his promotions as his team's are not good enough for automatic promotion.

[markavfc40]

6 hours ago, blandy said:

 

I mean on Chester and Baker being defensive players and the only ones that have had to build up an understanding with those around them - well that's not true at all. The new goalkeeper, new left back, whoever is at right back Hutton/Bacuna etc. - all the defenders have to build up an understanding with each other. So, not for me, that one.

 

 

Pete you make some good points but I don't think it is as tough for defenders to build up understandings. I think if individually you are a solid defender who does the basics well you can combine with others of the same ilk and become a solid defense quickly. Especially if you have good ability at the level you are playing. In terms of the goalkeeper I think he is an example of a player getting used to those around him and after a shaky start now looks more assured.

As a creative player though, or one reliant on them, you do have to learn when so and so will will make a run and what kind of run he will make. I have seen Hogan for instance make loads of good runs and fail to be picked out. I don't think that is because the likes of Lansbury, Hourihane, Gardner aren't good enough to pick him out I think it is simply because they aren't on the same wavelength....yet. But should that be a surprise when these players have played less than a dozen games together? I don't think so and I think you do need time in training and matches to build up an understanding especially if you are expected to create or reliant on those that do.

Time will tell on this I guess but I am hopeful that come next season the likes of Lansbury, Hourihane and Hogan will look completely different players to what they have so far. Hogan in fact by doing little more than what he is now but simply by those around him picking out his runs. The ability individually is there in the squad for me and with a bit of tweaking, under a decent manager with decent coaching staff, which I believe we have, then it just needs time to evolve into a team. 

[Stevo985]

28 minutes ago, mykeyb said:

I would be happier if points returns were being compared to finishing 2nd rather than 6th as surely that has to be minimum requirement and not the play off lottery even if that's how Bruce seems to achieve his promotions as his team's are not good enough for automatic promotion.

We've clearly said that his form is close to 6th this season, and that it NEEDS to improve next season to be challenging for automatic promotion.

The point being made is that the improvement needed, imo, is being exaggerated by some. Nobody has denied that 2nd place should be the minimum expected.

Also, 2 out of 4 of Bruce's promotions have been automatic promotion, so your final point is not really true.

Edited April 26, 2017 by Stevo985

[Eastie]

42 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

Exactly, which was my original point.

He's already got us more or less at playoff form. It needs to be better than that, don't get me wrong.

BUt we're not talking about turning bottom half form into title winning form.

Interesting to note that 3 of last seasons bottom 8 all look like making the play offs with Huddersfield , Fulham and reading - vital we build some momentum and get off to a good start in August . 

[Stevo985]

2 minutes ago, Eastie said:

Interesting to note that 3 of last seasons bottom 8 all look like making the play offs with Huddersfield , Fulham and reading - vital we build some momentum and get off to a good start in August . 

A particularly excellent example of a pre-season helping

[Eastie]

5 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

A particularly excellent example of a pre-season helping

Both Fulham and huddersfields bosses had arrived mid season too so this was their first pre season and full season - here's hoping for simIlar impact for Bruce next season . 

[Stevo985]

1 hour ago, blandy said:

I saw a table done of every teams points haul from the date Bruce was appointed to just before the SHA game. Villa were 12th. Accepted the win on Sunday may have changed position upwards by a place, but over the period he's been in charge the gap to the top 6 has got bigger. I'm in favour of letting him have a proper go next season, I'm not saying sack him, that would be a bad move, though my own faith in him is limited (I accept I'm not good at judging managers or predicting the future, and am happy to let the club people decide what's best in that regard).

I'd like to see that table.

We're 12th now and we were 19th when he took over. So it doesn't add up to me.

 

Edit: I've done it myself. Statto.com allows you to make a custom table like that.

Since he took over we're 10th, 5 points below 6th. I guess it's up to you whether that's "close" or not.

Granted is lower than where I thought we'd be, but again I would add the caveat that the points needed for playoffs is particularly high this year.

Edited April 26, 2017 by Stevo985