Steve Bruce

[DCJonah]

46 minutes ago, mattjpa said:

this thread constitutes mass hysteria. Bruce is doing what he thinks he needs to do to get us up. If that includes sitting back and letting Nottingham Forest act like Barcelona in their own half then so be it, we got three points and controlled the majority of the game without the lions share of possession. for me, he has got teams up before, he has earned the right to do as he sees fit. While we are achieving promotion form and results I fail to see how there can be much of an argument against him (apart from some faux outrage at throw away interview comments, mainly coming from his biggest detractors and throwers of insults).

When  results turn again and when it becomes an improbability for us to hit playoffs we should part ways

 

When's that happening then?

Last time I checked finishing 13th doesn't achieve it and neither does finishing 9th. 

Let me know when that promotion form kicks in, you'll probably find a lot less criticism and concern. 

[TRO]

4 hours ago, peterms said:

Then I imagine your face-to-face communication must be severely limited.  Your internet connection seems ok, though. 

 

well strangely my face to face as folk tell me would knock absolute spots off what i attempt on the internet.....but thanks for your vote of confidence, most kind.

by the way, i was just teasing.....I don't live under a stone ( mainly for those who believe anything I write)

[TRO]

1 hour ago, Demitri_C said:

im not teally interested in the name calling side of it. Personally i am more interested in his performance on the pitch. Bruce win ratio is 41.03% which only MON and Gregory have bettered (slightly i might add) 

Bruce needs to do better i agree but the way he gets slated on here you think he was as woeful as di matteo,  lambert and sherwood. 

my point too....the slating is ridiculous.

They have a point about the football, but i think it will improve.

[Demitri_C]

30 minutes ago, dn1982 said:

I've not asked for Bruce to be sacked. If he was I wouldn't be concerned but I realise he won't be going anywhere. You threw up stats to show Bruce us doing well but he's getting 41% in a league where we need over 50% for the playoffs and 60% to challenge for automatic. Bruce has been here 11 months I think RDM was here about 11 weeks and yet at this point there's not too much in their record and if we had a bad week virtually identical to when he was sacked. 

I hope we can get better because I think if like last year we hit a run of poor player form we aren't good enough as a team to turn it around quickly. We can't afford any dips from now on. 

Granted yes he needs to do better than last season but we are one of the most in form sides in the league on top of the win ratio shows we are perhaps and i say perhaps with caution heading the right direction. Is this because we gave had pretty easy fixtures or because we are actually turning a corner? Will he build a run then have a miserable run like he did in January ? The next 5 give us a idea as gives us a combination of straight forward and difficult games.

To be honest i think alot of sides will wb scared of us compared to how we were last season. I think if we were playing cardiff today we would have not lost by the same margain. They played us at the right time.

I agree with your point no dips is acceptable. If we lose a game that can be expected but its a run of losses or draws we cant afford.  If that happens it may ne worth thinking of changing manager.

[Demitri_C]

25 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

When's that happening then?

Last time I checked finishing 13th doesn't achieve it and neither does finishing 9th. 

Let me know when that promotion form kicks in, you'll probably find a lot less criticism and concern. 

You are aware we are in the top 3 form guide at the moment? If that is not promotion form then hardly any sides in the league are! 

[TRO]

28 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

When's that happening then?

Last time I checked finishing 13th doesn't achieve it and neither does finishing 9th. 

Let me know when that promotion form kicks in, you'll probably find a lot less criticism and concern. 

but we haven't finished 13th or 9th.....we have just started.

current form is promising, we must maintain it.

take it game by game.......we just have to win.

[dn1982]

4 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Granted yes he needs to do better than last season but we are one of the most in form sides in the league on top of the win ratio shows we are perhaps and i say perhaps with caution heading the right direction. Is this because we gave had pretty easy fixtures or because we are actually turning a corner? Will he build a run then have a miserable run like he did in January ? The next 5 give us a idea as gives us a combination of straight forward and difficult games.

To be honest i think alot of sides will wb scared of us compared to how we were last season. I think if we were playing cardiff today we would have not lost by the same margain. They played us at the right time.

I agree with your point no dips is acceptable. If we lose a game that can be expected but its a run of losses or draws we cant afford.  If that happens it may ne worth thinking of changing manager.

The dips are my biggest fear. We dont play good football and rely on individual brilliance way too much. I also think not having the majority of the ball in games will have an affect on fitness later in the season. We've a big squad but a lot of our key players are getting on. Let's win these next 2 then we can say we are back in it. Then we refocus and go again as someone once said. 

[Stevo985]

Comparing win percentages doesn't really work when you drop down a league.

It's like comparing Paul Lambert's win % at Villa with David Moyes' win % at Man United. Both jobs were probably performed at a similar level (debateable, but I'm making a point) yet win % for Moyes would be way higher.

 

We are one of the big clubs in this league, with one of the best squads. Any half decent manager could produce a win % that would put him high on the list compared to other Villa managers. It's not a fair comparison. The expectation has changed massively.

[AntrimBlack]

18 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

You are aware we are in the top 3 form guide at the moment? If that is not promotion form then hardly any sides in the league are! 

Well, you can cherry pick all you want, but the the only form guide I am interested in has us in 9th.

[Stevo985]

1 minute ago, AntrimBlack said:

Well, you can cherry pick all you want, but the the only form guide I am interested in has us in 9th.

Interestingly, though, I'm fairly confident the form guide you're talking about will have us in the top 6 by Saturday evening.

[TRO]

Just now, dn1982 said:

The dips are my biggest fear. We dont play good football and rely on individual brilliance way too much. I also think not having the majority of the ball in games will have an affect on fitness later in the season. We've a big squad but a lot of our key players are getting on. Let's win these next 2 then we can say we are back in it. Then we refocus and go again as someone once said. 

I think you are worrying too much and i say that respectfully.

Half of this team have just started playing with each other.....its slow but its looking better.

I watched Albion last night and despite their resillience ( Which Pulis has introduced) they had no individual brilliance as you say.....don't knock it, its great to have players who can swivel away from opponents and have the footwork to cause problems.....Its worth its weight in Gold.

We may rely on Kodjia for the guile and we need more, but Adomah is starting to settle, snoddy is capable but not there fitness wise, and Jack may be better when he comes back in to a more confident team team.

We have Davis,O'Hare and Doyle Hayes all learning their craft and showing great signs with their techniques and footwork.

We as a fan base have had so many false dawns and set backs.....it shows and we need to have a bit more faith.....Confidence is contagious, sadly meloncholy is too.

We all know we are not perfect, but lets build on the positives and let the club deal with the neggies on a incremental basis.

Its our job to enjoy ourselves.....and whilst many of the neggy comments may well be right, lets not bog ourselves down with them too much and embrace the pozzies.....we owe it to ourselves.

Just remember, irrespective of your view on the manager.....but who motivates the manager( they are only human too) that applies to any manager, not just ours.

and tonight whether we win, lose or draw......it is not a barometer for the season.....its just another brick in or out of the wall.

 

[TRO]

16 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

Comparing win percentages doesn't really work when you drop down a league.

It's like comparing Paul Lambert's win % at Villa with David Moyes' win % at Man United. Both jobs were probably performed at a similar level (debateable, but I'm making a point) yet win % for Moyes would be way higher.

 

We are one of the big clubs in this league, with one of the best squads. Any half decent manager could produce a win % that would put him high on the list compared to other Villa managers. It's not a fair comparison. The expectation has changed massively.

I don't necessarily agree with that......you would compare their overall careers win ratio, not one club......or even their last 200 games or last 3 clubs......you do need a fair sample size for it to have any credence.

However,you are in a higher division so it follows you have better players to work with.....you have more money, generally to play with too, to buy better quality players who will be more attracted to you....so it washes out, vice versa.

No for me win ratio's are a fair barometer and a measurement widely used.....provided the sample size is sufficient.

If you take a managers career overall its swings and roundabouts and averages itself out.....The better managers attract the better clubs i.e Pepe and Jose, but that surely tells the story, we are all trying to glean.....the cream rises to the top.....thats what we are trying to establish.

You can equally get distortions when a manager has been at a club for 12 games and won 9 and has a 75% win ratio or loses 9 and has a 25% win ratio.....foreign ( weak)leagues throw up distortions too, but see line 2 .

I accept it has to be a fair sample size......but equally i think its a reasonably fair measurement to judge a manager  quickly and superficially.

to do it properly and in great depth is subjective anyway.

 

[Demitri_C]

43 minutes ago, dn1982 said:

The dips are my biggest fear. We dont play good football and rely on individual brilliance way too much. I also think not having the majority of the ball in games will have an affect on fitness later in the season. We've a big squad but a lot of our key players are getting on. Let's win these next 2 then we can say we are back in it. Then we refocus and go again as someone once said. 

I think that also applies to a lot of teams in this league though, for example look at Chris wood at Leeds last season. they relied quite heavily on him. To be honest with you though I dont actually agree with that point for this season. Last year we relied on big koj getting the goals. But this yeah adomah and hourihane have scored goals as has davis. so recently other areas of the team are helping with the goals

 

28 minutes ago, AntrimBlack said:

Well, you can cherry pick all you want, but the the only form guide I am interested in has us in 9th.

Cherry picking the most recent and relevant form? 

Edited September 26, 2017 by Demitri_C

[Demitri_C]

35 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

Comparing win percentages doesn't really work when you drop down a league.

It's like comparing Paul Lambert's win % at Villa with David Moyes' win % at Man United. Both jobs were probably performed at a similar level (debateable, but I'm making a point) yet win % for Moyes would be way higher.

 

We are one of the big clubs in this league, with one of the best squads. Any half decent manager could produce a win % that would put him high on the list compared to other Villa managers. It's not a fair comparison. The expectation has changed massively.

I get your point stevo but if you consider where we were and the circumstances it was a lot tougher for Bruce than when Lambert came in for example. even Sherwood. this is irrelevant to the convo as we will never know, but i suspect neither Sherwood or Lambert would have as high percentage as Bruce has over the same period of games in this league. 

The part about half decent manager, would you consider Rafa a decent manager? I know I certainly would but he only won the title because of us. Its not as easy as that getting out of this league 

[DaveAV1]

Taking a snap shot of the form table just shows we are achieving better results at the moment. The problem is, that his time here has been very erratic, with good runs followed by bad. During this time the team performances have been consistently poor not ever giving much clue as to why we'd either won or lost. To get promoted you need to be the better team in the vast majority of matches, and we're not.

All teams have a dip in form, but those who have started well have got a buffer against those dips. We have averaged lass that 1.5 points per game so far this season, we already have to be winning most games just to play catch up. From where we are now, we already need over 2 points a game to get to the 93 points that Brighton achieved last season. That means we would have to win 25, draw 8 and lose only 4 games until the end of the season, or a similar configuration of results. Can anyone really see us doing that with our negative style of play?

[Stevo985]

8 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

I get your point stevo but if you consider where we were and the circumstances it was a lot tougher for Bruce than when Lambert came in for example. even Sherwood. this is irrelevant to the convo as we will never know, but i suspect neither Sherwood or Lambert would have as high percentage as Bruce has over the same period of games in this league. 

 

No. It was not a lot tougher for Bruce than it was for Sherwood and Lambert. That is completely not true.
Whether or not Sherwood or Lambert would have a higher % in this league is up for debate. But that's the only way you could use the win percentages with any meaning.

8 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

 

The part about half decent manager, would you consider Rafa a decent manager? I know I certainly would but he only won the title because of us. Its not as easy as that getting out of this league 

Yes I woudl consider Rafa more than a decent manager, but I have no idea what that has to do with the point we were discussing.

[bobzy]

1 hour ago, DCJonah said:

When's that happening then?

Last time I checked finishing 13th doesn't achieve it and neither does finishing 9th. 

Let me know when that promotion form kicks in, you'll probably find a lot less criticism and concern. 

We're 2nd in the last 6 games in terms of form.

 

Maybe finishing 2nd doesn't mean promotion.  Maybe you've deliberately looked past the use of the word "form". 

 

(Edit:  Crap!  Sheffield derby has put us 3rd and 3rd doesn't get promotion.  Argh )

Edited September 26, 2017 by bobzy

[Stevo985]

18 minutes ago, TRO said:

I don't necessarily agree with that......you would compare their overall careers win ratio, not one club......or even their last 200 games or last 3 clubs......you do need a fair sample size for it to have any credence.

However,you are in a higher division so it follows you have better players to work with.....you have more money, generally to play with too, to buy better quality players who will be more attracted to you....so it washes out, vice versa.

No for me win ratio's are a fair barometer and a measurement widely used.....provided the sample size is sufficient.

If you take a managers career overall its swings and roundabouts and averages itself out.....The better managers attract the better clubs i.e Pepe and Jose, but that surely tells the story, we are all trying to glean.....the cream rises to the top.....thats what we are trying to establish.

You can equally get distortions when a manager has been at a club for 12 games and won 9 and has a 75% win ratio or loses 9 and has a 25% win ratio.....foreign ( weak)leagues throw up distortions too, but see line 2 .

I accept it has to be a fair sample size......but equally i think its a reasonably fair measurement to judge a manager  quickly and superficially.

to do it properly and in great depth is subjective anyway.

 

I totally disagree on two elements.

Firstly, we weren't talking about comparing win percentages over a manager's career. We were talking about comparing Bruce's win % at Villa with people like Lambert or Sherwood's win % at Villa. There is a HUGE variable in that comparison which makes it basically irrelevant. It's like saying Bruce is doing an ok job if he had the same win % as Lambert (assuming you thought Lambert did an ok job, again that's up for debate but I'm making a point). You'd be completely disregardng the strength of the team relative to the league and the additional expectation that that brings.

 

Secondly, if we were comparing a manager's career win %, then you'd STILL need to factor in the leagues they were in and the teams they were managing.I'm sure there's a manager with a very convincing win % who's never managed above League 2 level. Would he be a better manager than, say, Mark Hughes who, without researching, I'm assuming has a pretty modest win % but who has consistently managed in the top flight.

 

You can only use win % as a fair barometer if all other conditions remain relatively constant. You could compare Alex Ferguson's win % in the Premier League with Arsene Wenger's win % in the premier league and make a relatively fair comparison.
You couldn't compare Alex Ferguson's win % in the Premier League with Neil Warnock's win % in the Championship and make any sort of comparison.

[Demitri_C]

11 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

No. It was not a lot tougher for Bruce than it was for Sherwood and Lambert. That is completely not true.

I would argue that it is definitely true. Lets present the situations.

Lambert came in after Mcleish who was massively unpopular and was majority of the fans number one choice at the time. He had the fans on side. The team wasnt THAT bad at the time. He had to do cost cutting but he was backed with signing players and found a gem in Tekkers. he had 3 seasons to get it right and we slid into mediocrity before he was removed.

Sherwood even worse. He was backed with 50m and absolutely was a complete failure. We all know how bad he was.

Bruce came in after a side that only one two league games all season and were hopeless losers. Di matteo mustered one win against the worst team in the league and continued the losing mentality and could not egt us winning consistently.  

Bruce had a team of losers who were mentality weak and had no belief and forgot how to win games. He literally cleared the losing menatlity at the club and for first time got us winning back ti back games. It was almighty tough. He has made a lot of mistakes and needs to do better but for me was tougher than both as neither had to pick up a side that had been relegated and no belief.

11 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

 

Yes I would consider Rafa more than a decent manager, but I have no idea what that has to do with the point we were discussing.

Because you said any half decent manager "any half decent manager could produce a win % that would put him high on the list compared to other Villa managers" Rafa was expected to walk this league and he didn't with a very strong squad, so my point is its not as simple as that.  

Edited September 26, 2017 by Demitri_C

[terrytini]

Personally I think it's as daft to suggest things are looking good as it is to suggest they remain dreadful.

IMO we are at something of a crossroads. Over the next few games things could easily go either way.

Those who think it's " all coming together" need to ask themselves whether we are just seeing the Kodja effect like we did last year.

Those who think it's just a couple of good results against poor sides can reflect on Bruces " confession" that he HAS deliberately been negative/cautious/defensive ( too much so IMO) but that he now feels that's all behind us - great if - very very belatedly - true.

His record, percentages or not, has been somewhere between poor and average, as has the football.

We have a very good first 14 and a good squad - it's been poorly used but there are signs he is finally realising that.

He lost it with those comments about hysteria. But he's reigned back on those too now.

The 'window' - of opportunity as I saw it - to get rid of him is, in my view, gone. We will regret it I think, in that he will get some results but nowhere near enough.

However, gone it is. I think we are stuck - or blessed - with him now.

Tonight is a great opportunity against a lowly side to show he means business.