The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[tonyh29]

6 hours ago, Enda said:

That's the gist of it, yep. Ireland never had a referendum to leave. We had a referendum to ratify Lisbon, which was rejected for many reasons but mostly people didn't really trust it. People like my Dad will vote No unless he's convinced something is a good idea, and people like him weren't convinced. The vote was something like 45-55 with No winning. A year later, after a big information campaign actually explaining the facts of the matter it was put to the people again and passed something like 70-30.

I think the UK could learn a lesson from this tbh.

I suppose it’s a hint of irony that the U.S were alleged to have influenced the original  No vote , what with allegations about nasty Russia trying to meddle in their last vote 

[Meath_Villan]

7 hours ago, tinker said:

Didn't Ireland have a few referedums  on leaving the EU? 

No

[snowychap]

30 minutes ago, Meath_Villan said:

No

Didn't Ireland have a few referedums  on leaving the EU? 

[ml1dch]

First bit agreed.

So, the next question is whether whatever concessions we've agreed to get to this phase are enough to bring May down before the next stage begins.

Or whether everyone in the cabinet wanting different, contradictory things will do that once they actually have to talk about them.

[HanoiVillan]

Don't think it should be underplayed how major the events of this morning are. 

Check para 49:

This seems to me (I'm happy to hear arguments I'm wrong, this is just a first impression) that this is a big step towards 'kick the can down the road for as long as possible'. 

[Davkaus]

It looks like there is a real possibility of us having absolutely no say in the regulations, but having to follow them. Hilarious, in a tragic sort of way. 

[Chindie]

It's a fudge. 

Not necessarily a good thing - it means we've overcome the Ireland issue with a fudge to suggest its a problem for another time to solve, and that we can go talk about a deal. However it doesn't really mean much else. It should stop us crashing out without a deal (unless we're really stupid or the EU turns particularly vindictive) but it also means the stage is now set entirely for us to go. Ireland was potentially a hurdle that might force a rethink in the entire thing. We've now fudged past that by saying nothing changes until we can solve it, but it doesn't tell us what the deal will be. Hopefully it's the softest possible, mocking the entire thing, but it doesn't have to be I don't think.

It's probably good evidence of how much of a fudge it is because nobody should be happy. Brexiteers because we've basically bowed to the EU in their eyes, and Remained because it pretty much nails home that Brexit happens (if that wasn't clear the moment Article 50 went through).

The should be no more popping by to say it'll never happen . This is an agreement to say everyone is happy it happens and we can go talk about what happens next.

[ml1dch]

18 minutes ago, Chindie said:

It's probably good evidence of how much of a fudge it is because nobody should be happy. Brexiteers because we've basically bowed to the EU in their eyes, and Remained because it pretty much nails home that Brexit happens (if that wasn't clear the moment Article 50 went through).

And spent €50m to get to that "not quite as good as we had it before" situation.

It's almost as if some people were saying that would be the end result when this whole sorry episode started...

[tonyh29]

48 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

And spent €50m to get to that "not quite as good as we had it before" situation.

It's almost as if some people were saying that would be the end result when this whole sorry episode started...

would they be the same people saying all planes would be grounded and  that we'd have no food in our supermarkets

 

[HanoiVillan]

1 hour ago, Chindie said:

It's a fudge. 

Not necessarily a good thing - it means we've overcome the Ireland issue with a fudge to suggest its a problem for another time to solve, and that we can go talk about a deal. However it doesn't really mean much else. It should stop us crashing out without a deal (unless we're really stupid or the EU turns particularly vindictive) but it also means the stage is now set entirely for us to go. Ireland was potentially a hurdle that might force a rethink in the entire thing. We've now fudged past that by saying nothing changes until we can solve it, but it doesn't tell us what the deal will be. Hopefully it's the softest possible, mocking the entire thing, but it doesn't have to be I don't think.

It's probably good evidence of how much of a fudge it is because nobody should be happy. Brexiteers because we've basically bowed to the EU in their eyes, and Remained because it pretty much nails home that Brexit happens (if that wasn't clear the moment Article 50 went through).

The should be no more popping by to say it'll never happen . This is an agreement to say everyone is happy it happens and we can go talk about what happens next.

We know that, from a trade point of view, there are three options: 1) a customs border between Dublin and Belfast, 2) a customs border in the Irish Sea, or 3) no customs border at all. 1 is vetoed by the Irish, who have now made their position clear, 2 is vetoed by the DUP, who were prepared to bring the government down to avoid it a few days ago, and 3 is 'vetoed' by the Tory right who caved this morning. 

I'm not guaranteeing anything, but I think it's fairly clear which way the wind is blowing currently. 

EDIT:  . . . also meant to add, on the whole I think your analysis here is right, but Remainers really should have given up expecting anything except a Brexit of some kind after it became legislation the day and time we are leaving. The battle since then has been about ensuring it is the least-damaging possible. This morning seems to me to be a significant step in that direction, hence i think Remainers (and Brexiteers, not that they will) should feel more positive than negative. 

Edited December 8, 2017 by HanoiVillan

[NurembergVillan]

Delighted for the EU that they've managed to announce a free trade agreement with Japan.  That'll be awesome for all parties, and will lead to even further prosperity.

Right then.  After this morning's fun, I'm about to hop on a plane to Lesotho to sell jam and cupcakes.  We's gon' be rich!

[Chindie]

2 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

We know that, from a trade point of view, there are three options: 1) a customs border between Dublin and Belfast, 2) a customs border in the Irish Sea, or 3) no customs border at all. 1 is vetoed by the Irish, who have now made their position clear, 2 is vetoed by the DUP, who were prepared to bring the government down to avoid it a few days ago, and 3 is 'vetoed' by the Tory right who caved this morning. 

I'm not guaranteeing anything, but I think it's fairly clear which way the wind is blowing currently. 

Indeed.

But I mean more what the exact nature of a deal we now get is. Hopefully it's Norway, about as close to full membership as possible without actually signing up. As I say, that's the stupid option from a position of Brexit being 'a thing' at all, as we know we basically trade in power and cash for...er.. nothing really. But it's better than the alternative, which is something akin to Canada (or very unlikely now hopefully, no deal). Canada style would still be a deal, but would limit how much a deal benefits us (obviously it can't be exactly the same but in essence the Canada option is the limited horizon deal). If we get Canada style, we're still ****.

Hopefully it's Norway. And if it is I hope Brexiteers go mental, because the schadenfreude would be delicious.

[ml1dch]

39 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

would they be the same people saying all planes would be grounded and  that we'd have no food in our supermarkets

 

Yup. And both were, and still are completely accurate.

They've finally worked out that the consequences (those things you mention) of ripping up the status quo are critical enough to basically keep things the same.

And thank goodness that they did. For now at least.

They've effectively upgraded a horrendous catastrophe into a pointless, expensive waste of everybody's time.

So a big well-done to you and your fellow voters.

Edited December 8, 2017 by ml1dch

[darrenm]

1 hour ago, Chindie said:

It's a fudge. 

Not necessarily a good thing - it means we've overcome the Ireland issue with a fudge to suggest its a problem for another time to solve, and that we can go talk about a deal. However it doesn't really mean much else. It should stop us crashing out without a deal (unless we're really stupid or the EU turns particularly vindictive) but it also means the stage is now set entirely for us to go. Ireland was potentially a hurdle that might force a rethink in the entire thing. We've now fudged past that by saying nothing changes until we can solve it, but it doesn't tell us what the deal will be. Hopefully it's the softest possible, mocking the entire thing, but it doesn't have to be I don't think.

It's probably good evidence of how much of a fudge it is because nobody should be happy. Brexiteers because we've basically bowed to the EU in their eyes, and Remained because it pretty much nails home that Brexit happens (if that wasn't clear the moment Article 50 went through).

The should be no more popping by to say it'll never happen . This is an agreement to say everyone is happy it happens and we can go talk about what happens next.

Yep, agreed. Absolutely a fudge. I honestly didn't think the DUP were going to cave in but I suppose Arlene was pragmatic enough to realise that if they didn't allow disparity between NI and UK then May would be out and the whole gov could come crashing down. The way I read the doc is that the only border referenced is the IE/NI border, not NI/UK. So while it looks like the leavers in the Tories have compromised, I think it's the DUP.

[HanoiVillan]

32 minutes ago, Chindie said:

Indeed.

But I mean more what the exact nature of a deal we now get is. Hopefully it's Norway, about as close to full membership as possible without actually signing up. As I say, that's the stupid option from a position of Brexit being 'a thing' at all, as we know we basically trade in power and cash for...er.. nothing really. But it's better than the alternative, which is something akin to Canada (or very unlikely now hopefully, no deal). Canada style would still be a deal, but would limit how much a deal benefits us (obviously it can't be exactly the same but in essence the Canada option is the limited horizon deal). If we get Canada style, we're still ****.

Hopefully it's Norway. And if it is I hope Brexiteers go mental, because the schadenfreude would be delicious.

While I share your hope that Brexiteers 'go mental', I don't think it will ever happen. I don't think most of them had a very strong or clear view of what they wanted other than 'leaving the EU', so they may not be all that disappointed with the outcome. I have to pinch myself and remember that Boris, who is always talked about as some sort of Brexit true-believer, made his mind up which way to vote about a fortnight before election day. Plus to be honest, I think all politicians will be so sick and tired of talking about Brexit long before then that nobody will want to bring it up. 

[ml1dch]

12 minutes ago, darrenm said:

Yep, agreed. Absolutely a fudge. I honestly didn't think the DUP were going to cave in but I suppose Arlene was pragmatic enough to realise that if they didn't allow disparity between NI and UK then May would be out and the whole gov could come crashing down. The way I read the doc is that the only border referenced is the IE/NI border, not NI/UK. So while it looks like the leavers in the Tories have compromised, I think it's the DUP.

Paragraph 49 guarantees alignment between north and south. Paragraph 50 guarantees alignment east and west.

The DUP haven't compromised on anything. 

[HanoiVillan]

12 minutes ago, darrenm said:

Yep, agreed. Absolutely a fudge. I honestly didn't think the DUP were going to cave in but I suppose Arlene was pragmatic enough to realise that if they didn't allow disparity between NI and UK then May would be out and the whole gov could come crashing down. The way I read the doc is that the only border referenced is the IE/NI border, not NI/UK. So while it looks like the leavers in the Tories have compromised, I think it's the DUP.

I think you misunderstood what happened last week. It was basically exactly the opposite. Foster threatened to bring down the government rather than have a customs border in the Irish Sea, and May backed down. The DUP not only didn't cave, they forced the Tories to. 

[darrenm]

4 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Paragraph 49 guarantees alignment between north and south. Paragraph 50 guarantees alignment east and west.

The DUP haven't compromised on anything. 

 

3 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I think you misunderstood what happened last week. It was basically exactly the opposite. Foster threatened to bring down the government rather than have a customs border in the Irish Sea, and May backed down. The DUP not only didn't cave, they forced the Tories to. 

I'll have a better read in a bit. It was bleary eyed this morning so I've obviously missed something. I didn't see anything about east-west.

[snowychap]

 

[villakram]

Ahh... the British Empire being controlled from Belfast. At least it's not Edinburgh, am I right?