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The now-enacted will of (some of) the people


blandy

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3 hours ago, StefanAVFC said:
3 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Because who knows what the future could bring! 
 

But on a serious note I’ve just got in to work so will try and send a proper reply later on.

Hopefully you'll have some more extensive comments later 🤷‍♂️

Forget Brexit for a moment as that clouds the issue.  No country,  person, bloc or party is truly on a stable footing at the moment.  Globally we have tariffs flying about,  little wars sparking & we are coming to the end of the perceived financial cycle coupled to the fact the the reduced interest rates is a bit of a race to the bottom at the wrong time.  It also gives the banks nowhere to go when it does go pop.  There are nations within the EU that I don't think are resilient to any financial external pressures then this is a possible problem on the horizon.  There are loads of variables (Climate change) that cannot be included in models because we obviously don't know wtf we are ding as a planet.  

Add to that the US election (If he gets a 2nd term then his gloves are truly off).

+ Bod in North Korea is quiet.

+ Industrial (Eg VW,  can happen again and will)

Or things like inverted yield curves nearly almost signify a recession,   does nothing etc.  It's like a comic at the moment.

It is now so complex nobody can predict anything anymore and nobody in the world would put their life on Brexit being a definite X,Y or Z.  We might stay in and die with the rest of them or find a small piece of fireplace to sit on or come out of a problem big and stronger.

 

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34 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

Forget Brexit for a moment as that clouds the issue.  No country,  person, bloc or party is truly on a stable footing at the moment.  Globally we have tariffs flying about,  little wars sparking & we are coming to the end of the perceived financial cycle coupled to the fact the the reduced interest rates is a bit of a race to the bottom at the wrong time.  It also gives the banks nowhere to go when it does go pop.  There are nations within the EU that I don't think are resilient to any financial external pressures then this is a possible problem on the horizon.  There are loads of variables (Climate change) that cannot be included in models because we obviously don't know wtf we are ding as a planet.  

Add to that the US election (If he gets a 2nd term then his gloves are truly off).

+ Bod in North Korea is quiet.

+ Industrial (Eg VW,  can happen again and will)

Or things like inverted yield curves nearly almost signify a recession,   does nothing etc.  It's like a comic at the moment.

It is now so complex nobody can predict anything anymore and nobody in the world would put their life on Brexit being a definite X,Y or Z.  We might stay in and die with the rest of them or find a small piece of fireplace to sit on or come out of a problem big and stronger.

 

All of that is fair.

Irrelevant to my questions to VLV though. I asked which countries he thinks will leave after us and why.

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20 minutes ago, Genie said:

Am I wrong to be feeling slightly optimistic that something might approved by all parties?

 

Presumably the Tories would all vote for it + the DUP

the 21 turncoats , SNP and Lib Dems will vote against it  , so it comes down to Labour  and how many of them are prepared to vote with it  , Caroline flint and 18 others came out saying they would be prepared to back a deal but not sure that would be enough

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18 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

oh get over yourself , if you don't like me having a bit of fun then do the world a favour and hit the ignore button 

If you can't take a response to something you have posted without demanding that people who might criticise it 'hit the ignore button' then perhaps posting in a politics topic on VT (or commenting on anything whatsoever in life) isn't the right arena for your 'bit of fun'.

 

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29 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

Presumably the Tories would all vote for it + the DUP

How so? The Irish seem to think that our latest position is just going back to the original Northern Ireland backstop, with a simple majority Stormont vote needed to end it, which wouldn't happen as the DUP are not likely to have an overall majority. 

It's all the stuff they didn't like about the original, EU suggested withdrawal agreement.

The Tory rebels (mostly) voted for the original DWA every time and will almost certainly vote again for any deal brought back to Parliament.

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3 minutes ago, meregreen said:

Anyone think that the Irish border problem is the only thing wrong with leaving the EU........me neither. Our economy will tank. The pound will go even lower. Solving Ireland’s border problem is just one of many problems.

I posted the other week that it seemed to have become a distraction on how bad a lot of the WA is /was  , but it seems to be the main obstacle to getting a withdrawal agreement   .

The rest of it remains to be seen ,  it won't surprise you to know that personally i don't think the economy will tank, nor do i think the £ will go any lower than it has in the recent period 

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Leaving with a deal and the pound will recover, but nowhere near where it was.

Remaining will boost the pound back to where it was 25th June 2016.

Leaving with no deal with absolutely tank it.

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