brommy Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 19 minutes ago, Chindie said: Yes that means that they will take a hit. But they're looking at the big picture. They'll take a hit now rather than accept something that could threaten their entire business model in Europe. Why would a tariff-free trade agreement with the UK threaten the EU's entire business model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted October 7, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted October 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, brommy said: Why would a tariff-free trade agreement with the UK threaten the EU's entire business model? It's more than tariffs. It's agreed standards and so on. By agreeing a deal where the UK gets its cake and eats it, you create a situation that begins to threaten the whole organisation by undermining it, and creating issues with things like the UK being used as an importing house for goods around the world that aren't to the same standards, or issues with resolving disputes etc etc. Once the other nations start to see the UK getting to skip things it dislikes and get all the benefits, with threats to their own businesses, they'll push for the same. Before you know it the single market is **** and businesses that have thrived on selling to one of the biggest markets on the planet with minimal trouble now are back to square one with all the hits to profit that brings. That's briefly why the EU won't agree to give us this fantasy deal. There's obviously far more to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brommy Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Does the EU currently have any mutually successfully trade agreements with markets outside it's own? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meregreen Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 32 minutes ago, brommy said: Does the EU currently have any mutually successfully trade agreements with markets outside it's own? Every trade deal we currently enjoy with the rest of the world is an EU deal. One of the nightmares Brexit will do is force us to renegotiate every one of those deals as a small country . I’m sure Liam Fox will do a grand job of it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 57 minutes ago, brommy said: Does the EU currently have any mutually successfully trade agreements with markets outside it's own? I am no expert on this but I'd imagine they have a number of them as they can go into negotiations as a 28, soon to be 27, strong block and come out with a very good deal for themselves. We will now have to negotiate for ourselves without the strength of another 27 countries alongside us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 24 minutes ago, meregreen said: Every trade deal we currently enjoy with the rest of the world is an EU deal. One of the nightmares Brexit will do is force us to renegotiate every one of those deals as a small country . I’m sure Liam Fox will do a grand job of it A small country that happens to be the 5th biggest economy in the world ? I’m sure we’ve got nothing to offer the rest of the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post HanoiVillan Posted October 7, 2017 Popular Post Share Posted October 7, 2017 (edited) 6 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: A small country that happens to be the 5th biggest economy in the world ? I’m sure we’ve got nothing to offer the rest of the world Nobody has said we have 'nothing to offer'. @meregreen simply doubted Disgraced Former Defence Secretary Liam Fox's competence, a position which seems entirely reasonable to me. Edited October 7, 2017 by HanoiVillan 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meregreen Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: A small country that happens to be the 5th biggest economy in the world ? I’m sure we’ve got nothing to offer the rest of the world The 5th largest economy that is part of the wealthiest trading bloc in the world. Leaving the EU will leave us isolated and vulnerable in a world where trade is increasingly controlled by economic behemoths. What we offer to the world will be considerably less outside the EU than in it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted October 7, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted October 7, 2017 Also, our being the 5th largest economy clearly has nothing to do with being an EU member for decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brommy Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 26 minutes ago, markavfc40 said: I am no expert on this but I'd imagine they have a number of them as they can go into negotiations as a 28, soon to be 27, strong block and come out with a very good deal for themselves. We will now have to negotiate for ourselves without the strength of another 27 countries alongside us. I'm sure there are markets outside the EU that are satisfied with their trading relationship with the EU and vice versa, i.e. the relationship is mutually beneficial. Perhaps we should aim for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted October 7, 2017 Author Moderator Share Posted October 7, 2017 41 minutes ago, brommy said: I'm sure there are markets outside the EU that are satisfied with their trading relationship with the EU and vice versa, i.e. the relationship is mutually beneficial. Perhaps we should aim for that. I think that's what the Brexiteers are hoping for. And that's fair enough. The difficulty is that the degree of mutually beneficial is the highest for countries in the single market/EU. Leaving it means, ultimately, "less mutually beneficial". The hard brexit lot want WTO rules to apply, WTO rules impose tariffs that are not imposed under EU rules. It makes stuff more expensive for us. It makes stuff more expensive for foreign nations peoples to buy British goods. It means likely sales reductions, meaning job losses and fewer revenues for Gov't, which means fewer schools and hospitals and more crumbling infrastructure. So it makes us more unemployed & poorer and generally worse off all round. We've also seen with the USA and Boeing v Bombardier in N.Ireland that the US is only interested in the US and whatever advantage they can gain by whatever means they can use. They're absolutely not interested, they're opposed, to British firms and British produce being brought into the US and taking money and business away from US companies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brommy Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 (edited) I think there's a long way to go with the process and even longer (possibly a decade or more) to assess the long term effect on the UK and EU. Between now and 2030 it will be interesting to review this thread every 6 months or so to see how accurate the speculation is. Edited October 7, 2017 by brommy Predictive text correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meregreen Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 The US will promise all sorts of deals to the UK. Then when we’ve finally left the EU, expect the gloves to come off. It’ll be our negotiators job to get a decent deal. I don’t expect them to get one. It’s in the USA’s interests to see the EU crumble. They can pick us all off economically, apart from Germany, The EU united, can take them on, and they know it. Don’t believe anythingTrump says, but on this especially so. Bombardier is but a foretaste of what’s to come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 8, 2017 Moderator Share Posted October 8, 2017 50 minutes ago, meregreen said: The US will promise all sorts of deals to the UK. Then when we’ve finally left the EU, expect the gloves to come off. It’ll be our negotiator's job to get a decent deal. I don’t expect them to get one. It’s in the USA’s interests to see the EU crumble. They can pick us all off economically, apart from Germany, The EU united can take them on, and they know it. Don’t believe anything Trump says, but on this especially so. Bombardier is but a foretaste of what’s to come. I'd argue it was more in Russia's interests than America's tbh but being as the current US President is a shill for Putin, yes Id agree A traditionally run USA would need a strong EU as they'd be looking towards their NATO defence partners to remain strong, having the EU fracture is no good for a peaceful world That's the very reason that Putin has been funding and actively encouraging ANYTHING that threatens the breakup of the "West" US / EU. He's been funding Farage, Trump, the Catalan Independence thing, Front National and Le Pen, that Dutch Right wing nutter, the new far right in Germany... Putin's been helping them all 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meregreen Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 17 minutes ago, bickster said: I'd argue it was more in Russia's interests than America's tbh but being as the current US President is a shill for Putin, yes Id agree A traditionally run USA would need a strong EU as they'd be looking towards their NATO defence partners to remain strong, having the EU fracture is no good for a peaceful world That's the very reason that Putin has been funding and actively encouraging ANYTHING that threatens the breakup of the "West" US / EU. He's been funding Farage, Trump, the Catalan Independence thing, Front National and Le Pen, that Dutch Right wing nutter, the new far right in Germany... Putin's been helping them all If Trump wasn’t President, I would probably temper my pessimism somewhat. Unfortunately he is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 8, 2017 Moderator Share Posted October 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, meregreen said: If Trump wasn’t President, I would probably temper my pessimism somewhat. Unfortunately he is. We are living in quite extraordinary times but no one seems to be joining the dots as to what is actually going on... I'm beginning to think I should order a tin foil hat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 (edited) On 10/7/2017 at 13:57, markavfc40 said: I am no expert on this but I'd imagine they have a number of them as they can go into negotiations as a 28, soon to be 27, strong block and come out with a very good deal for themselves. We will now have to negotiate for ourselves without the strength of another 27 countries alongside us. The whole thing that muddies the waters here is that the EU isn't "one block". Germany sells most, earns most and therefore profits from deals like they will probably want one with the UK. The people negotiating are not represented by Germany at all and hence it's turned into a bit of a shit show where one Dutch, one French and one Luxembourg national seems to want to elevate the smaller countries of the union and their own country's interests (Barnier). If you put a German or Swedish negotiator at the table it's likely that they'd look for a quick decision mutually beneficial to both parties, but the way it is now we've got 3 quite vengeful people controlling the process on the EU side as well as a total idiot on our side. The way Germany is going in their internal politics it could be that they'll force something to happen soon. The German people, especially in the poorer areas, are getting a bit tired of carrying the load, paying for failed political projects and carrying the risks in these sorts of situations. It's not like it's going to matter much to Luxembourg if we get a deal or not, but it sure as hell will matter to Fritz working at the BMW plant in Leipzig if the sale of BMW's goes down by what is predicted due to Brexit. Edited October 8, 2017 by magnkarl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 8, 2017 Moderator Share Posted October 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, magnkarl said: The whole thing that muddies the waters here is that the EU isn't "one block". Germany sells most, earns most and therefore profits from deals like they will probably want one with the UK. The people negotiating are not represented by Germany at all and hence it's turned into a bit of a shit show where one Dutch, one French and one Luxembourg national seems to want to elevate the smaller countries of the union and their own country's interests (Barnier). If you put a German or Swedish negotiator at the table it's likely that they'd look for a quick decision mutually beneficial to both parties, but the way it is now we've got 3 quite vengeful people controlling the process on the EU side as well as a total idiot on our side. Not sure that's true tbh, I think it wouldn't matter who was at the table, the strategy appears to be to get us to stay in the EU if possible but make us pay dearly for leaving, so they have to adopt that approach. They have to discourage anyone else from leaving the union. Having the idiot on our side only makes matters worse unless of course, you don't actually want a deal in the first place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 (edited) 11 minutes ago, bickster said: Not sure that's true tbh, I think it wouldn't matter who was at the table, the strategy appears to be to get us to stay in the EU if possible but make us pay dearly for leaving, so they have to adopt that approach. They have to discourage anyone else from leaving the union. Having the idiot on our side only makes matters worse unless of course, you don't actually want a deal in the first place. It's all speculation of course, but I do think that the fact that none of the big economies in the EU bar France being represented at the negotiation table is stupid on their end. You'll have someone from a known tax haven who's now been punished for sweetheart dealing with amazon in the past (Juncker) trying to figure out how he's going to try to punish someone who wants to leave. Shouldn't the big traders of the union be represented rather than people who won't really feel it much if we break with the union? If I was the CEO of Mercedes right now I'd be pretty pissed at Merkel for letting three known critical people of the UK lead the negotiations that will determine the fate of the second largest market for my cars in the world. If you put BMW, Mercedes, Opel, Porsche and Audi output next to that of Luxembourg as a whole state I bet they are pretty close in revenue, we both know who will suffer if the deal is bad. It sure ain't Juncker. Edited October 8, 2017 by magnkarl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 8, 2017 Moderator Share Posted October 8, 2017 21 minutes ago, magnkarl said: It's all speculation of course, but I do think that the fact that none of the big economies in the EU bar France being represented on the negotiation table is stupid on their end. You'll have someone from a known tax haven who's now been punished for sweetheart dealing with amazon in the past (Juncker) trying to figure out how he's going to try to punish someone who wants to leave. Shouldn't the big traders of the union be represented rather than people who won't really feel it much if we break with the union? If I was the CEO of Mercedes right now I'd be pretty pissed at Merkel for letting three known critical people of the UK lead the negotiations that will determine the fate of the second largest market for my cars in the world. Can you back that second largest market stat up? Do they sell more cars here than in the USA or Germany? I very much doubt it tbh. USA sales are about 40k a month, UK is about 150k a year EDIT: they sell about 400k units a year in China too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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