The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[blandy]

52 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

It's all speculation of course, but I do think that the fact that none of the big economies in the EU bar France being represented at the negotiation table is stupid on their end.

I disagree on about 3 counts.

firstly the 27 other nations sat down and decided what the “rules” for the negotiations would be. They decided, as we know, leaving bill, citizens rights, Irish border. That’s it. No other topics until “ sufficient progress “ on those things. So the whole economy part is for later.

secondly, the people negotiating for the EU are negotiating for and representing all 27.

thirdly, the EU team can change members as and when they want, and as appropriate.  If/when it comes to trade talks, the bigger economies may well get representatives into the team.

The EU holds all the cards and has done ever since A50 was triggered. Any that the UK had have been dropped, soiled ,torn, fought over, and thrown away.

[chrisp65]

BMW car sales for 2016 were over 2 million,  830,000 across all of Europe, 313,000 in the USA, 310,000 in China, 262,000 in Germany, 187,000 to the UK 

Mercedes sold over 2 million, including 840,000 cars across Europe, 375,000 in the USA, 326,000 in China, 311,000 in Germany, 165,000 in UK 

Sales Share

We are at about 6 or 7% of their market. A decent chunk. But total sales worldwide for these brands went up 6% last year. So, had tariffs come along that reduced sales here to absolute zero, they would still have been ok. It wouldn't have cost a single job in Germany if our market totally ceased. We are a chunk of the market. We are not a reason for the EU to disband and splinter to grab a better deal with us over all the others.

I'm not being defeatist, I just don't understand why somebody currently in a club, accounting for 7% of their trade, thinks that if they leave, they'll be offered a better deal than the members.

I'd love someone to explain to me what it is I'm missing here on all these special better deals we're going to be getting.

 

[tonyh29]

Or another way is to say it’s 18% of ALL German cars built that are sold in the UK 

Deloitte ( Germany} produced a study in June estimating if we went to WTO trading with Tariffs at 10% the impact on the german car industry coukd be approx 18,000 jobs and drops of about 6.7 bn in sales 

unless Greece is going to step up and increase  their .3 % of german car imports , I don’t see why it’s a huge stretch of the imagination to suggest the german car industry would like a similar deal with a non EU U.K to the one it currently has ... maybe more so  with Trump threatening to put 35% tariffs on German car exports to the US  as he did back in May 

[ml1dch]

2 hours ago, magnkarl said:

The whole thing that muddies the waters here is that the EU isn't "one block". Germany sells most, earns most and therefore profits from deals like they will probably want one with the UK. The people negotiating are not represented by Germany at all and hence it's turned into a bit of a shit show where one Dutch, one French and one Luxembourg national seems to want to elevate the smaller countries of the union and their own country's interests (Barnier). 

If you put a German or Swedish negotiator at the table it's likely that they'd look for a quick decision mutually beneficial to both parties, but the way it is now we've got 3 quite vengeful people controlling the process on the EU side as well as a total idiot on our side.

This is absolute balls.

The 27 Heads of State all voted in favour of both Barnier and the current timescales of negotiations.

If Barnier were replaced by say Günther Oettinger or Cecilia Malmström then they would have the precise same negotiating mandate as Barnier.

It's possible that Barnier might request a change to his mandate, it's possible that some members ask for his mandate to be changed. But there is nothing there at the moment to suggest that the above will happen, irrespective of your made-up car figures. And until it does, there is no movement.

Then again, given you think it's so easy, what is the quick, mutually beneficial solution that the super-efficient German or Swede will come up with for Ireland?

Edited October 8, 2017 by ml1dch

[chrisp65]

12 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

Or another way is to say it’s 18% of ALL German cars built that are sold in the UK 

Where's that figure from Tony?

Best I can find is VW and they're at around 1 in 10 of the cars they build coming here. I can't find a German car company relying on us for nearly 2 of every 5 cars they make, let alone the whole industry.

Just interested as a stats nerd.

[ml1dch]

28 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

 I don’t see why it’s a huge stretch of the imagination to suggest the german car industry would like a similar deal with a non EU U.K to the one it currently has ... 

As you keep glossing over, nobody is disputing that. Of course they would like things to carry on exactly as they are now.

What they aren't going to do is risk decades of carefully built success just because it turns out that a country that they export to doesn't understand how the Single Market works.

[tonyh29]

32 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Where's that figure from Tony?

Best I can find is VW and they're at around 1 in 10 of the cars they build coming here. I can't find a German car company relying on us for nearly 2 of every 5 cars they make, let alone the whole industry.

Just interested as a stats nerd.

Was on Bloomberg  but I’ve seen it in a few places .. sometimes referred to to as a fifth but I went with the lower figure of 18% which I think is what fact check came up with

 

About a fifth of all German car exports are destined for the U.K.

[snowychap]

1 hour ago, tonyh29 said:

18% of ALL German cars built that are sold in the UK

 

9 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

About a fifth of all German car exports are destined for the U.K.

 

[chrisp65]

hmmm, I still can't get it to add up

I think they're counting every Astra and Corsa as an Opel and every Ford made in Spain, Portugal and Turkey as a German Ford

Not denying the vast majority of cars are imports and that all cars are kinda global.

 

Perhaps I just need people to start saying Ford and Opel, not Mercedes. It might make it clearer that it's a big problem for us if every car on the road costs an extra 10%.

[tonyh29]

37 minutes ago, snowychap said:

 

 

Ah good point ... 

[colhint]

3 hours ago, ml1dch said:

This is absolute balls.

The 27 Heads of State all voted in favour of both Barnier and the current timescales of negotiations.

If Barnier were replaced by say Günther Oettinger or Cecilia Malmström then they would have the precise same negotiating mandate as Barnier.

It's possible that Barnier might request a change to his mandate, it's possible that some members ask for his mandate to be changed. But there is nothing there at the moment to suggest that the above will happen, irrespective of your made-up car figures. And until it does, there is no movement.

Then again, given you think it's so easy, what is the quick, mutually beneficial solution that the super-efficient German or Swede will come up with for Ireland?

I think this is somewhat naive, if I may say. Whilst I agree they voted in favour of negotiations, no one by a mile has more to lose than Germany,in Europe that is,  if things go wrong. Its all very good talking about prestige like BMW or Mercedes, but they make an awful lot of other stuff too. We are the third largest export Market in the world for German products accounting for     Eu 86,000,000,000 last  year  with a balance of trade of EU 50,500,000,00 surplus

Whereas Greece exports eu130,000,000 (notice those missing 3 zeros) 

So a downturn of just 5% is nowhere near the same for Greece as it is for Germany. 

Spain is similar to the Greek situation, Portugal as well. 

I don't believe for a minute that it's a level playing field for the other states.

 

 

[ml1dch]

7 hours ago, colhint said:

I don't believe for a minute that it's a level playing field for the other states.

Who are you arguing this point with?

You've written a lot of words which are nothing to do with my post.

 

[meregreen]

10 hours ago, colhint said:

I think this is somewhat naive, if I may say. Whilst I agree they voted in favour of negotiations, no one by a mile has more to lose than Germany,in Europe that is,  if things go wrong. Its all very good talking about prestige like BMW or Mercedes, but they make an awful lot of other stuff too. We are the third largest export Market in the world for German products accounting for     Eu 86,000,000,000 last  year  with a balance of trade of EU 50,500,000,00 surplus

Whereas Greece exports eu130,000,000 (notice those missing 3 zeros) 

So a downturn of just 5% is nowhere near the same for Greece as it is for Germany. 

Spain is similar to the Greek situation, Portugal as well. 

I don't believe for a minute that it's a level playing field for the other states.

 

 

We no longer make many of those products due to so many of our Industries perishing on the altar of monetarism during Thatchers reign. We will still have to buy those things from Germany, they will simply cost us more. Our goods on the other hand ...

[magnkarl]

To say that it's a level playing field within EU is extremely naive. Does anyone honestly believe that Greece or Portugal will suffer as much from Brexit as Germany will? If you add up the numbers I think Germany exports as much to the UK as the whole rest of the EU does in total. To say that Germany won't be affected or lose jobs in extremely naive. Beiersdorf alone exports around 30% of their products to the UK (nivea, palmolive etc). They employ close to 18.000 people. 

Germany by far has the most to lose in Europe on this - just like we do on our side. It'll be a shitstorm for both countries as well as export heavy countries like Sweden (tech, cars, raw resources) and Hungary (cars, resources, people).

Some states on the other hand have very little to lose. (Luxembourg, Austria, Holland, Belgium, France). Sadly the 3 top people in the negotiations on their side are all from these countries.

[HanoiVillan]

I can't think of any other country that has benefitted more from the path European integration has taken than Germany, and it's expecting them to change all that for us that strikes me as 'naive'. 

[magnkarl]

2 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I can't think of any other country that has benefitted more from the path European integration has taken than Germany, and it's expecting them to change all that for us that strikes me as 'naive'. 

I'm not saying that they'll change it. I'm saying that there'll be reactions in Germany if smaller states get to decide the course of the negotiations without Germany having a say. Once you start looking at the number of jobs lost if their export to us just drops by 5% it's starting to be a real problem for any politician to defend. 

[HanoiVillan]

2 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

I'm not saying that they'll change it. I'm saying that there'll be reactions in Germany if smaller states get to decide the course of the negotiations without Germany having a say. Once you start looking at the number of jobs lost if their export to us just drops by 5% it's starting to be a real problem for any politician to defend. 

Why would that happen? Doesn't seem very likely that Germany 'won't have a say' to me. 

[magnkarl]

1 hour ago, meregreen said:

We no longer make many of those products due to so many of our Industries perishing on the altar of monetarism during Thatchers reign. We will still have to buy those things from Germany, they will simply cost us more. Our goods on the other hand ...

I think a hard Brexiteer would tell you that we could get those products from China, Australia, Canada, USA, New Zealand etc. 

I don't agree with it as these markets aren't held to account for climate and so forth but it's a valid option. We buy German products because of quality. Add 10% to a Miele tumble dryer already at £1000 and most people would go for the £800 Samsung instead.

[ml1dch]

14 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

To say that it's a level playing field within EU is extremely naive. Does anyone honestly believe that Greece or Portugal will suffer as much from Brexit as Germany will? 

Once again, who is saying this?

[magnkarl]

Just now, HanoiVillan said:

Why would that happen? Doesn't seem very likely that Germany 'won't have a say' to me. 

The way the media is portraying it in Germany it seems like they are starting to build up a massive resentment towards Barnier, Verhofstadt (sp) and so on because they are putting their own personal grudges ahead of German exports. Germany keeps the EU afloat, how will they do that if they suddenly have a massive gap in their exports? There isn't a valid market in Europe to replace the UK and that is how it is. There will be cuts and people will lose their jobs. To the average German it looks like this:

What they do for the EU:

• Pay more than any other country.
• Asked to plug the gap when Britain leaves (reported 2.5bn euros)
• Accept more migrants than any other country in the EU.

What they get from the EU:

• No help dealing with said migrants.
• Export by far the most outside and inside the union - will be hardest hit.
• A bigger market due to trading bloc deals.
• Extreme competition for jobs due to the above immigration.
• Biggest risk when it comes to economical instability due to their economy being export heavy.

It's not hard to see why it's a growing problem. The trends with the AFD and the politics over there show it pretty clearly.