tonyh29 Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 16 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: I see we’ve moved away from Mercedes now and are pinning our hopes on Miele to lean on the German government to lean on the EU to get us a good deal. Not so easy to find figures on Miele. But, I have found 5 little bits of information: 1 their German home market accounts for 30% of all there 850,000 washing machine sales 2 their European sales account for 90% of their total worldwide sales 3 they sell more machines to the USA than the UK 4 they sell more machines to China than the UK 5 they sell more machines to Australia than the UK So whilst I don’t have an exact figure, I think it’s fair to extrapolate that they can’t be selling more than 3% of their output to Australia. From that we have to presume they are selling less than 3% to us? Let’s call it 3%. Again, like the car argument, I don’t think they’ll want to jeopardise the EU single market where they sell 87% of their product, to protect the full 3% they sell here. Hopefully I’m wrong. Shall we do Boss aftershave next? well , on the basis that the argument put up against Dom in another thread came down to his grammar , I'm saying you're wrong 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 24 minutes ago, Seat68 said: Whats the breakdown on krautrock? 7 minute intro 3 minute noodle 9 minute breakdown 2 minute reprise that's generally a whole side of an album 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted October 9, 2017 Author Moderator Share Posted October 9, 2017 22 minutes ago, Seat68 said: Whats the breakdown on krautrock? die Zerlegung 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted October 9, 2017 Author Moderator Share Posted October 9, 2017 37 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: I see we’ve moved away from Mercedes now and are pinning our hopes on Miele to lean on the German government to lean on the EU to get us a good deal. It seems entirely reasonable to me that manufacturers and companies in pretty much all the EU nations which export significantly to the UK will not want their businesses harmed by Brexit and will want their politicians to keep damage to a minimum, in the same way that the UK's businesses are doing with our government. And they will get listened to. There will be other EU businesses who will be looking forward to snaffling g work and activity from the Uk and they'll be in the ear of their politicians saying the opposite, obviously. Perhaps as with the UK, the potential losses are larger than the possible gains. I may be being simplistic, but the trade part of the "deal" ought to be less difficult than the money/Ireland/citizens rights/ECJ etc. stuff and the EU principles being upheld stuff. Possibly one of the reasons the UK was going to have the "fight of the summer" over parallel trade and leaving talks (you know, the fight that lasted about an hour, which it lost) is because the leavers could use progress with trade stuff to bolster their arguments and avoid being seen as a cower of shunts for a year or so, at least. So they could say (hypothetically) "this trade deal isn't as good as the single market, but it's not all that much worse and there's now time to go and do deals with other nations...bright new dawn" to deflect from the attention on everything else, which is going to be bad for the UK or for their party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colhint Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 One thing I'm not sure of in these negotiations is , what happens when some deal is struck. I presume from our side we take it back to HoC and vote. Presumably with a majority it'll be signed off. But what happens in Europe, do countries get a veto, could Greece say for example we don't like it, no thanks. Or is it a case of that's the deal back off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, colhint said: One thing I'm not sure of in these negotiations is , what happens when some deal is struck. I presume from our side we take it back to HoC and vote. Presumably with a majority it'll be signed off. But what happens in Europe, do countries get a veto, could Greece say for example we don't like it, no thanks. Or is it a case of that's the deal back off. Good question. Could Germany veto a deal that hurts their economy more than it does the smaller states? I presume they can, and I also presume they will. At the end of the day this argument comes down to money, and the negotiations will probably ebb out in the two largest markets in Europe in Britain and Germany finalising the deal. It'll have very little to do with May or Davis and more to do with the Wirtschaftsrat and our commerce boards. What Juncker or Davis wants gets sidelined when we're talking about millions of jobs and billions of euros/pounds, right now we're just arguing about appendage size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted October 9, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted October 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, colhint said: One thing I'm not sure of in these negotiations is , what happens when some deal is struck. I presume from our side we take it back to HoC and vote. Presumably with a majority it'll be signed off. But what happens in Europe, do countries get a veto, could Greece say for example we don't like it, no thanks. Or is it a case of that's the deal back off. The EU Parliament signs off the deal (or not). Countries can definitely cause issues. The Canada EU deal was nearly scuppered by the Belgian Walloons because they disliked the agriculture agreements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 2 hours ago, blandy said: I guess the general point, rather than the specifics of which washing machine models are made wherever is that the prices of imported goods from nations without a trading agreement in place will not be affected by Brexit (other than because of the plummeting pound) whereas those from inside the EU will be. What about the prices of imported goods from nations with which we do have a trading agreement in place by virtue of being in the EU (and thus with which we won't have agreements on exit day + 1 unless DFDS Fox is ready to go with his pen at midnight, &c.) or those nations with whom trade deals are currently not yet in force but may well be by the time we do actually exit (I don't know whether that applies to EU/S.Korea - I haven't looked it up so I don't know whether it's just unratified or not discussed or not decided, &c.)? My point is that glib comments about 'most people would' even when correctly (if it was) applied to a specific situation are pointless when there may/will be all sorts of different (changes of) situations at play with regard to tariffs and non-tariff barriers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grasshopper Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 I dont know much about politics but, The EU was slowly coming to the realisation point that things couldnt carry on as they were, for the greater good Germany & France wanted a bit more power/support from the likes of Benelux & Britain, the whole "Greece-thing" and open borders meaning some aspects of integration (for want of a better word) were to taxing - remember that the € is trying to hold its own against foriegn market currencies - so a more teered EU could prove better for all (in the long run). However, as one of the "big players" wants to jump ship, the French & Germans are really not best pleased. I do not believe that ANY compromises that Maggie May wishes to push through will come to be. The EU's position will be - Either you're in or you're out/You'll miss us more than we'll miss you. I personally think that "we" missed an chance for EU reform to develop and be better for all - even the not so economically strong countries - but we threw our toys out of the pram way too early and lost the chance to sit down with the major players and work out a reform whilst there there were good reasons to. all imho of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 (edited) 8 minutes ago, snowychap said: What about the prices of imported goods from nations with which we do have a trading agreement in place by virtue of being in the EU (and thus with which we won't have agreements on exit day + 1 unless DFDS Fox is ready to go with his pen at midnight, &c.) or those nations with whom trade deals are currently not yet in force but may well be by the time we do actually exit (I don't know whether that applies to EU/S.Korea - I haven't looked it up so I don't know whether it's just unratified or not discussed or not decided, &c.)? My point is that glib comments about 'most people would' even when correctly (if it was) applied to a specific situation are pointless when there may/will be all sorts of different (changes of) situations at play with regard to tariffs and non-tariff barriers. I used S. Korea because the EU doesn't have a deal with them. The price of a Samsung won't go up with Brexit, while if tarrifs are imposed on German goods a Miele will be higher. They are the two top brands on the market and when Miele becomes £500-600 more expensive than Samsung's comparable model (before we attempt a deal with South Korea) it's not unreasonable to say that people will go for that instead. It's just as reasonable to say that about Nissan(I know, big factory in Slovakia), Tesla, Chevy and the likes. They will stay where they are in price while German cars will go up if this goes to a hard Brexit. I'm not sure how much I'd stretch to buy a European brand if I could get the same thing for 70% of the price from America tbh. It's not like German cars have a good reputation as of late. Edited October 9, 2017 by magnkarl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, magnkarl said: ...when Miele becomes £500-600 more expensive than Samsung's comparable model ... What kind of import duty are you now claiming will be imposed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, magnkarl said: I used S. Korea because the EU doesn't have a deal with them. I'm sure there's a reason you're not counting the one signed in 2009. I'm just not sure what that reason is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, snowychap said: What kind of import duty are you now claiming will be imposed? Okay, I'll bite. Samsung WW90K: £769 before Brexit. Miele WGK 120: £999 before Brexit. Add 10% duty on Miele and you're sitting on £1100 before we even start talking about other taxes. That is £331 pounds saved before the UK even attempts to forge a deal with S.Korea. You see my point? It's 30% cheaper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, magnkarl said: I used S. Korea because the EU doesn't have a deal with them. So you specifically used a situation where you were comparing a product with no import duty and one which you are saying has an import duty already imposed (are you sure this is the case?) in order to support your claim about German disenchantment with trade negotiations (which haven't yet started)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, ml1dch said: I'm sure there's a reason you're not counting the one signed in 2009. I'm just not sure what that reason is. Unless you're buying agricultural goods or industrial equipment, which this argument isn't about, that deal is totally not worth mentioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, ml1dch said: I'm sure there's a reason you're not counting the one signed in 2009. I'm just not sure what that reason is. Yawn. The Agreement is not yet in force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 1 minute ago, magnkarl said: Okay, I'll bite. No need to couch it in terms of 'biting'. If you want to reply then do; if you don't then don't. It's very easy. Quote Samsung WW90K: £769 before Brexit. Miele WGK 120: £999 before Brexit. Add 10% duty on Miele and you're sitting on £1100 before we even start talking about other taxes. That is £331 pounds saved before the UK even attempts to forge a deal with S.Korea. You see my point? It's 30% cheaper. 12 minutes ago, magnkarl said: when Miele becomes £500-600 more expensive than Samsung's comparable model £331 is not £500-600. There's already a difference of £230 - at the moment it's already 23% cheaper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, snowychap said: So you specifically used a situation where you were comparing a product with no import duty and one which you are saying has an import duty already imposed (are you sure this is the case?) in order to support your claim about German disenchantment with trade negotiations (which haven't yet started)? South Korean goods are dutied into the UK if they're anything but large scale industrial equipment or agricultural equipment. A washing machine isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 (edited) 1 minute ago, magnkarl said: South Korean goods are dutied into the UK if they're anything but large scale industrial equipment or agricultural equipment. A washing machine isn't. That depends on where they are made, doesn't it? That's what I was told earlier in the thread. Edited October 9, 2017 by snowychap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 (edited) 5 minutes ago, snowychap said: That depends on where they are made, doesn't it? That's what I was told earlier in the thread. Samsung's washing machines for Europe are made in Kaluga in Russia, which ostensibly doesn't have a deal with the EU. There's duty on Samsung's machines entering the UK because they're either made in Vietnam or in Kaluga. The point of the argument was that a hard brexit (which I am against by the way), will hurt high end brands like Miele or Mercedes because luxury brands that are already competitive in price (Infinity, Lexus, Samsung, Tesla, Chevy) will be at least 10% cheaper. I'd go for a flat 5% if I were the EU, that way America can't swoop in and give us their typical 5% deal which will ruin the UK market for EU brands. Edited October 9, 2017 by magnkarl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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