The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[StefanAVFC]

I've read figures that we do as much trade with NZ in 2 days than we do in a year with the EU.

[snowychap]

3 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

I've read figures that we do as much trade with NZ in 2 days than we do in a year with the EU.

That'd be the other way round, wouldn't it? 2 days with the EU = A year with NZ ?

[StefanAVFC]

16 minutes ago, snowychap said:

That'd be the other way round, wouldn't it? 2 days with the EU = A year with NZ ?

Oopsie

That's what I meant.

Edited January 15, 2017 by StefanAVFC

[Enda]

11 hours ago, Awol said:

They are playing to the strengths we've always known the U.K. has when negotiating a new relationship. 

European banks and companies need unfettered access to London's capital markets. As Hammond not very subtly suggested even Deutsche Bank would be stuffed without that, meaning an open two way street for financial services.

We have to leave the single market to control borders, the ECJ to control our laws and the customs union to make our own trade deals - even more important now we're at the front of the queue for a bilateral deal with the US. 

It's all shaping up nicely and another drop in sterling on Tuesday will help the export situation even more, raise inflation and in time, interest rates. 

 

12 hours ago, Chindie said:

EU allegedly concerned about maintaining links to the City, which is good.

Except that's not what Barnier said at all, he said he wanted shared "vigilance on financial stability risk, not special deal to access the City." So he would like the ECB to share notes with the Bank of England on risks (and vice versa); not that the free movement of capital would continue.

You will see inflation and interest rates rise. But the real interest rate will not rise. The real interest rate will likely fall as the BoE continues to battle against a recession by basically printing money.

Four quick reminders to the Brexit trumpeteers: there's absolutely nothing stopping you setting your own tax rates and becoming a tax haven within the EU; Trump has spent much of his campaign trashing the North American Free Trade Agreement, and with the EU having years ahead of you on TTIP it seems unlikely you'll get much working there; a further drop in Sterling means you have to export even more to purchase the same amount of imports; and the long-term negative consequences ("dynamic effects") of less competition from within the single market will likely greatly outweigh the negative short-term trade effects ("static effects"), or at least that was your experience (and Ireland's) upon entry in 1973.

[Chindie]

Any bets on how low the pound will be once the power mad witch has stopped talking this week?

[Chindie]

Also the *spit* Great Repeal Bill is allegedly going to incorporate a clause to allow the government to pass legislation without oversight, which the Lords will go apeshit over. Hopefully the clause, if it exists, is given a limited timeframe for use.

[Chindie]

And Oxford Uni, via the Grauniad, has done some modelling on the effect of reduced migration. Long story short? Less migrants, even longer working lives - which is already getting longer anyway. The county would also start to age as the 'native' birthrate, like lots of Europe, is low, which'll make the problem worse.

Edited January 16, 2017 by Chindie

[Awol]

7 hours ago, Enda said:

 

Except that's not what Barnier said at all, he said he wanted shared "vigilance on financial stability risk, not special deal to access the City." So he would like the ECB to share notes with the Bank of England on risks (and vice versa); not that the free movement of capital would continue.

You will see inflation and interest rates rise. But the real interest rate will not rise. The real interest rate will likely fall as the BoE continues to battle against a recession by basically printing money.

Four quick reminders to the Brexit trumpeteers: there's absolutely nothing stopping you setting your own tax rates and becoming a tax haven within the EU; Trump has spent much of his campaign trashing the North American Free Trade Agreement, and with the EU having years ahead of you on TTIP it seems unlikely you'll get much working there; a further drop in Sterling means you have to export even more to purchase the same amount of imports; and the long-term negative consequences ("dynamic effects") of less competition from within the single market will likely greatly outweigh the negative short-term trade effects ("static effects"), or at least that was your experience (and Ireland's) upon entry in 1973.

First off I didn't mention Barnier or the leaked minutes of the meeting where he discussed this. Maybe his rush to "correct" those minutes was in the interests of truth, not arse covering. He wouldn't be much of a negotiator if reacted to the leak by saying "it's a fair cop & actually we'll have to give those bloody Brits what they want". 

Neither does it detract from what Hammond said about the need for the EU countries to have open access to the capital markets in London. The full interview is at the link below and worth reading: Philip Hammond issues threat to EU partners - silly headline but to be expected.

Quote

Welt am Sonntag: The impression on the European continent is also that your government sees the future business model of the U.K. as being the tax haven of Europe. The government wants to introduce the lowest corporate tax rate among all industrialized countries.

Hammond: We are now objectively a European-style economy. We are on the U.S. end of the European spectrum, but we do have an open-market economy with a social model that is recognizably the European social model that is recognizably in the mainstream of European norms, not U.S. norms. And most of us who had voted Remain would like the U.K. to remain a recognizably European-style economy with European-style taxation systems, European-style regulation systems etcetera. I personally hope we will be able to remain in the mainstream of European economic and social thinking. But if we are forced to be something different, then we will have to become something different.

Welt am Sonntag: We don’t understand: Who or what would force you?

Hammond: Economic circumstances. If we have no access to the European market, if we are closed off, if Britain were to leave the European Union without an agreement on market access, then we could suffer from economic damage at least in the short-term. In this case, we could be forced to change our economic model and we will have to change our model to regain competitiveness. And you can be sure we will do whatever we have to do. The British people are not going to lie down and say, too bad, we’ve been wounded. We will change our model, and we will come back, and we will be competitively engaged.

According to Mark Carney (empirical facts rather than forecasting) London provides 75% of all Forex trades for EU, 75% of all hedging activity and supports half of all lending. London is the EU's investment banker, and "A sharp break in that liquidity and capacity support could be detrimental to financial stability in the EU". 

Don't get me wrong I think there is an understandable emotional desire to kick the country that's just jilted them, but at what cost to the EU?

On Trump, I think you've just been unlucky, timing wise:

Donald Trump says he will offer UK a quick and fair trade deal

Quote

"We're going to work very hard to get it done quickly and done properly. Good for both sides", Mr Trump said, adding that he plans to meet Prime Minister Theresa May soon after he gets in to the White House.

TTIP is a dead duck, like its Pacific cousin.

Edited January 16, 2017 by Awol
To add a link, give

[HanoiVillan]

Trump might be more favourably disposed to a deal than Clinton would have been, but the idea it will be 'quick' seems wrong. 

[OutByEaster?]

Unless the deal is basically TTiP's T&C's but with the EU crossed out and the UK written in. Which would make a lot of sense I think in terms of why we got a referendum on this.

 

[Awol]

35 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Trump might be more favourably disposed to a deal than Clinton would have been, but the idea it will be 'quick' seems wrong. 

US - Canada deal took 14 months. 2 years or less is quick. 

 

23 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

Unless the deal is basically TTiP's T&C's but with the EU crossed out and the UK written in. Which would make a lot of sense I think in terms of why we got a referendum on this.

Nah, nothing so deep. In 2015 TTIP was on track. It was Cameron playing fast and loose to manage his own party and not expecting the public to bite his arm off. 

 

[HanoiVillan]

14 minutes ago, Awol said:

US - Canada deal took 14 months. 2 years or less is quick. 

Right. I think it will take a lot longer than that. 

[villaglint]

Quick does not necessarily mean good. Be careful what you wish for. 

 

[Enda]

3 hours ago, Awol said:

First off I didn't mention Barnier or the leaked minutes of the meeting where he discussed this. Maybe his rush to "correct" those minutes was in the interests of truth, not arse covering. He wouldn't be much of a negotiator if reacted to the leak by saying "it's a fair cop & actually we'll have to give those bloody Brits what they want". 

Neither does it detract from what Hammond said about the need for the EU countries to have open access to the capital markets in London. The full interview is at the link below and worth reading: Philip Hammond issues threat to EU partners - silly headline but to be expected.

1. You didn't mention Barnier but Chindie's comments about access to financial markets did, albeit not by name.

2. Glad Hammond is admitting that leaving the single market will be a blow to the UK's competitiveness, it's about time people were honest about the consequences. But I strongly disagree with him that EU "needs" access to capital in London. German trade surplus was 8% of GDP last year... that's a lot of latent capital knocking around. Of course the option of attracting London's capital into the EU (where it will be more used in a more competitive marketplace) is desirable, but not needed.

I'm currently on a train to Belfast. Talk of leaving the customs union means a return to a hard border, which traditionally "encourages" the paramilitaries up here. Institutions destabilised, elections to be called this afternoon. A bomb found in West Belfast last night.

"Take back control" might as well be "completely lose control" in this part of the UK.

[Enda]

Also, lol at believing a word Trump says about international trade. A major international trade deal in three months? Come off it. 

$100 to VT if the UK and US strike a (anyway substantial) deal within six months. $1000 to VT if UK-US trade volumes match/replace current UK-EU trade volumes during Trump's four years.

[Xann]

Everything's fine. Chinese Reactor Woman is at the tiller.

[Awol]

15 minutes ago, Enda said:

Also, lol at believing a word Trump says about international trade. A major international trade deal in three months? Come off it. 

$100 to VT if the UK and US strike a (anyway substantial) deal within six months. $1000 to VT if UK-US trade volumes match/replace current UK-EU trade volumes during Trump's four years.

I understand why you're concerned about security in NI, honestly. It's why I think they they'll find a work around to avoid the hard border. 

That aside I don't know where you're getting these 3 or 6 month timeframes from. Not my post.

EDIT: out of interest, where was the bomb? Planted or "discovered" by the security forces? 

Edited January 16, 2017 by Awol
To add

[blandy]

4 minutes ago, Awol said:

I understand why you're concerned about security in NI, honestly. It's why I think they they'll find a work around to avoid the hard border. 

How can we have "take back control" of immigration if we don't have hard borders?

[chrisp65]

6 minutes ago, blandy said:

How can we have "take back control" of immigration if we don't have hard borders?

Oh haven't you heard, we're going to do Ireland's border security for them. 'Our' border will start at Cork and Rosslare, Dublin airport and Bantry Aerodrome.

Not only will we have our country back, we're gonna reunite Ireland under the red white and blue shield.

I say shield, it'll be run by G4S and Capita.

it's gonna be great.

[Awol]

33 minutes ago, blandy said:

How can we have "take back control" of immigration if we don't have hard borders?

See Chrisp65 post. That's apparently what's being discussed.