brommy Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 26 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: Bank of England downgrade Brexit risk If 'brexit' is no longer the biggest risk to the UK economy, what is the biggest risk and can we have a new thread about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mozzavfc Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 15 minutes ago, brommy said: If 'brexit' is no longer the biggest risk to the UK economy, what is the biggest risk and can we have a new thread about it? We already do have a thread It's called US politics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brommy Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Mozzavfc said: We already do have a thread It's called US politics Is that what the Bank of England were referring to - Trump and the US is now a bigger risk to the UK economy than leaving the EU?Blimey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Italy leaving the Euro could be the next biggie according to a lot of experts but not sure if we'd get dragged down by that as much as others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brommy Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 The Communist party in Portugal also pushing for a referendum. Unlikely to get it in the short term. Can't see how Italy leaving would affect the UK as much as Italy and the remaining EU members, especially if the UK has already left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Risso Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 On 1/10/2017 at 08:44, peterms said: Civitas is an explicitly right wing group, spun off from the IEA, which was set up after the war by an Old Etonian whose business was based on animal cruelty, with the aim of promoting the agenda of Hayek and others. Civitas claimed a few years ago that hate crime laws were being unfairly used against white Christian Britons. I really wouldn't see them as an independent or authoritative source on anything, especially this. Looking at their website they don't appear to be overly right wing. I'm not sure that their founder's business interests 70 years have any bearing on the quality of their research now, and writing off their research on that basis seems a bit daft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 6 hours ago, tonyh29 said: Italy leaving the Euro could be the next biggie according to a lot of experts but not sure if we'd get dragged down by that as much as others UK would be hit because if Italy leaves the € then the whole currency area would breakdown in a disorderly manner - and very likely the EU with it. The fallout would make 2016 look like the year nothing much happened. Lol at Mark Carney trying to bury the BoE's Brexit U-turn on the day of Trump's press conference. Is that now a full house for the recantation of 'expert' Remainers? Remember, they can't all be wrong, can they? Oh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyVillan Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Awol, you're jumping the gun somewhat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 hour ago, PompeyVillan said: Awol, you're jumping the gun somewhat. True. We're a long way from knowing how things will turn out, but some of us on here stuck with the analysis that 'expert' opinion was corralled and manipulated to try and swing the vote for Remain. 'Conspiracy theorists' was one the kinder terms thrown around at the time, so please forgive me a little schadenfreude as we see these experts row back one by one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 6 hours ago, Awol said: Remember, they can't all be wrong, can they? Oh... If they were wrong then, why should we not be skeptical about how 'right' they are now? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Just now, snowychap said: If they were wrong then, why should we not be skeptical about how 'right' they are now? Quite so, optimistically skeptical is a good starting point when dealing with experts who have a vested interest in convincing you - about anything, imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted January 12, 2017 Author Moderator Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 hour ago, Awol said: optimistically skeptical is a good starting point when dealing with experts Experts! we've had quite enough of them thank you, As I was saying to the Baker who was fixing the wiring in the cellar. We had to stop our chat when unfortunately there was a shocking incident. Fortunately when the ambulance came the parachutist was able to pull a few strings and get him a bed at the local B&B for some emergency surgery on his burns. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 18 minutes ago, blandy said: Experts! we've had quite enough of them thank you, As I was saying to the Baker who was fixing the wiring in the cellar. We had to stop our chat when unfortunately there was a shocking incident. Fortunately when the ambulance came the parachutist was able to pull a few strings and get him a bed at the local B&B for some emergency surgery on his burns. Well yes, it's easy to take the piss when you deliberately quote half a sentence out of context! *wags finger reproachfully* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted January 12, 2017 Author Moderator Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 hour ago, Awol said: easy to take the piss when you deliberately quote half a sentence out of context Moi? As if! Butter wouldn't..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted January 15, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted January 15, 2017 EU allegedly concerned about maintaining links to the City, which is good. In the same breath they've reiterated that the bargain must favour membership, which isn't a shock either. Meanwhile Hammond is running around subtly suggesting the UK might fancy being a tax haven, and May has revealed exactly how evil she is and exactly how thick the Tories think we are, and further pushing the legitimising of Europe as a dirty word by referencing the ECJ as something else we might like to leave behind. Brexit doesn't mean Brexit. It means bending over and taking all the hopes and dreams of the Tory hardcore Right hard and dry, and they don't care about your tears. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 42 minutes ago, Chindie said: EU allegedly concerned about maintaining links to the City, which is good. In the same breath they've reiterated that the bargain must favour membership, which isn't a shock either. Meanwhile Hammond is running around subtly suggesting the UK might fancy being a tax haven, and May has revealed exactly how evil she is and exactly how thick the Tories think we are, and further pushing the legitimising of Europe as a dirty word by referencing the ECJ as something else we might like to leave behind. Brexit doesn't mean Brexit. It means bending over and taking all the hopes and dreams of the Tory hardcore Right hard and dry, and they don't care about your tears. They are playing to the strengths we've always known the U.K. has when negotiating a new relationship. European banks and companies need unfettered access to London's capital markets. As Hammond not very subtly suggested even Deutsche Bank would be stuffed without that, meaning an open two way street for financial services. We have to leave the single market to control borders, the ECJ to control our laws and the customs union to make our own trade deals - even more important now we're at the front of the queue for a bilateral deal with the US. It's all shaping up nicely and another drop in sterling on Tuesday will help the export situation even more, raise inflation and in time, interest rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted January 15, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted January 15, 2017 The currency drop is great for export of course, but given that we import rather a lot, not so good the other way. I obviously disagree with everything you like about Brexit, vice versa. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 so was the New Zealand PM asked to say a few words in return for a more favourable deal ... was he just being polite as he's a guest or was he speaking as someone that has inside information on how things are playing out between the 2 countries ? i think the UK is NZ's fifth biggest export market ? Does this deal (and presmumably something similar with Oz ) once concluded help their economies as well , I.e is it as much in their interest as ours ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Celebrating another fall in sterling? 2016 Q3 figure: trading deficit of £25,494 Million ONS Now I'm not an economics expert... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, tonyh29 said: i think the UK is NZ's fifth biggest export market ? Beeb Quote Britain is the second largest foreign investor in New Zealand and its fifth largest bilateral trading partner. I think New Zealand was the 45th largest export market for the UK in 2014 (if you don't treat the EU as a single entity). According to this page: Quote What does New Zealand import from the United Kingdom? (2014) Total: $1.11 bn Edit: More on UK/NZ trade: Quote From the Kiwi gov website: Among its economic strengths, the United Kingdom has a flexible exchange rate, access to the European single market, and an increasingly competitive corporate tax rate. ... London, the principal city, is the financial centre of Europe and has a population of over nine million. The United Kingdom benefits from having some of Europe’s key infrastructure including: Heathrow airport - the second busiest in the world in terms of passenger traffic, and a major cargo hub the Eurotunnel - the major road artery connecting the United Kingdom to mainland Europe serving the business, tourism and freight sectors. The United Kingdom is readily accessible as an export market, and is New Zealand's sixth most important export market. ... A growing number of New Zealand companies are using the United Kingdom as a springboard into Continental Europe. ... New Zealand Trade and Enterprise (NZTE) manage operations for the United Kingdom and Ireland from its London office. Approximately 250 New Zealand companies have a presence in the United Kingdom, and London is often a first point of entry into the wider Europe region. Edited January 15, 2017 by snowychap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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