PieFacE Posted January 5, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted January 5, 2017 (edited) Thing is, whilst staying in the market should be the number one priority, there's no chance in hell that we will be given that whilst not allowing free movement, and rightly so. Personally I think anyone who thinks otherwise is a little delusional. The leave campaign should be crucified for even suggesting it's possible. I think the majority of people who voted out would rather leave the single market to "take back control", even at the expense of the economy, which is absurd imo. I think it will be slightly hilarious (but more depressing) that after 5 or 10 years after Brexit actually happens, the same people who voted to leave will be the same people who will be up in arms that the economy is worse and their standard of living is worse. "We wanted a Brexit, but not this Brexit". There's a high chance I have no idea what i'm actually going on about, but that's how I feel it will go. Edited January 5, 2017 by PieFacE 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted January 5, 2017 Author Moderator Share Posted January 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said: What a sad state of affairs we're in that our PM is pushing policy to appease fanatics. ...Staying in the single market should be our number one priority. THe whole thing all the way through has been about one part of the Tory party appeasing another part of the tory party. Having done that, but rather complacently and half-heartedly and then in a panicy way, making up doomsday scenarios which backfired, they (May) is now obliged to follow through with the result of the referendum. The whole thing has been another in a long and inglorious sequence of tories messing things up, through complacency, lack of intellectual rigour or coherency and self interest. The sliver of hope, for me at least, is that significant parts fo the EU are equally incompetent and a deadweight, and that possibly, just possibly, the UK leaving that behind will be beneficial to an extent, and that the other nations will ultimately come to the same view, during negotiations, sideline the deadweights and adopt a more UK-ish view and focus on trade to and from the UK-EU as the main area to be resolved. But I don't think that's what will happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted January 5, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted January 5, 2017 The EU en masse following suit and a subsequent reform that removes 'the bad stuff' like free movement is a forlorn hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 (edited) I often think what the reaction would have been if remain won 52-48 and Cameron turned around and said 'The result is clearly a mandate for closer ties with Europe. Therefore we will be adopting the Euro and joining the Schengen Zone'. Edited January 5, 2017 by StefanAVFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enda Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 15 hours ago, colhint said: so its about protectionism then by the member states. and if we cant make that deal does all trade stop or what? I'm wondering how important these deals are, I mean there are no deals with The US or China, but I bet there are billions of dollars of trade between them. There is a deal, albeit via the WTO. The WTO is extremely complex, but a simplified version of it is "You use our rules", which kind of defeats the point of not using the EU's rules, which encourages more trade than the WTO's rules! The UK's backup is WTO. That's no easy/great deal either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted January 5, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted January 5, 2017 WTO rules would be near disastrous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 13 hours ago, peterms said: That's Neil Horan, the guy who ran out onto the track at the British GP and who tackled the leader of the Marathon at the Athens Olympics. Quite the troll. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neil_Horan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 hour ago, blandy said: The sliver of hope, for me at least, is that significant parts fo the EU are equally incompetent and a deadweight, and that possibly, just possibly, the UK leaving that behind will be beneficial to an extent, and that the other nations will ultimately come to the same view, during negotiations, sideline the deadweights and adopt a more UK-ish view and focus on trade to and from the UK-EU as the main area to be resolved. Isn't Fillon on record as saying the EU is inefficient and useless ? mind you that was when he was trying to win the republican primary and he was also saying France should play a bigger role leading it ... But , he's most likely to win the French election so he may try and reform the EU ... interestingly he has made a few immigration type comments ( probably in a bid to capture some Le Pen voters) so could his reform proposals also encompass an end of free movement ? sure , his rhetoric is more aimed at muslim immigrants but to a lot of people they are one and the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morley_crosses_to_Withe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The first of our two scenarios examines the Treasury’s assumptions even though we feel that these have little basis in reality. More probable but still pessimistic is our baseline Brexit scenario. In the latter the loss of GDP peaks at less than 3% early in the next decade before beginning to recover. Postponed investment, loss of EU trade and lower migration all play a role, but an accommodating monetary policy and a depreciated currency help to manage the shock, as they should. In per capita terms the loss is never much more than 1% and soon recovers. Even under these somewhat pessimistic assumptions about (temporary) uncertainty and trade losses, the path of GDP is projected to be only a little lower than it might have been in the absence of a Leave vote. Inflation is higher but unemployment lower as migration is restrained. The economic outlook is grey rather than black, but this would, in our view, have been the case with or without Brexit. The deeper reality is the continuation of slow growth in output and productivity that have marked the UK and other western economies since the banking crisis. Slow growth of bank credit in a context of already high debt levels, and exacerbated by public sector austerity prevent aggregate demand growing at much more than a snail’s pace. http://www.cbr.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/centre-for-business-research/downloads/working-papers/wp483.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Well they'll bloody believe experts now won't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted January 5, 2017 VT Supporter Share Posted January 5, 2017 Every political entity ever is inefficient and useless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 hours ago, blandy said: is abundantly clear that the overall impact of leaving, economically, is and will be negative, in terms of jobs, finance and all the rest. what's your timescale for this statement of fact ? 1 week , 1 month , 1 year , 30 years , 100 years ? I don't think it's as abundantly clear as you claim , too may unknown variables and what if's , it's entirely possible the predictions of our impending doom are correct but it's not a certainty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lapal_fan Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 This whole thing is barely even worth talking about anymore. Let's face it, no one knows what's going on.. even the people who are meant to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 19 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: what's your timescale for this statement of fact ? 1 week , 1 month , 1 year , 30 years , 100 years ? I don't think it's as abundantly clear as you claim , too may unknown variables and what if's , it's entirely possible the predictions of our impending doom are correct but it's not a certainty Exactamundo. All these predictions of woe presuppose the EU remains a fixed and unchanged entity. It may well look significantly different economically (for the worse) even before we are due to leave in 2019. It's like there's a willful blindness to what's actually happening on the Continent economically, politically and socially. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted January 5, 2017 Author Moderator Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 hour ago, tonyh29 said: what's your timescale for this statement of fact ? 1 week , 1 month , 1 year , 30 years , 100 years ? I don't think it's as abundantly clear as you claim , too may unknown variables and what if's , it's entirely possible the predictions of our impending doom are correct but it's not a certainty I've not said it's fact, Tony. And clearly as mentioned before, George Osborne in particular is a lying toerag and there was a lot of scare-mongering. However, based on immigration control being incompatible with full freedom of movement, it seems (according to al lthe various media and analysts) that the UK will not retain full membership of the single market. Also at risk is financial services and a further factor is EU bods seeking to ensure the UK undergoes some degree of "pain" to discourage others. On top of that is the fall in the pound against the dollar and Euro, which increases the costs of imports (and we import far more than we export). Even the more sane leave people acknowledge that Brexit will bring pain in the short to medium term. Longer term is a complete unknown 39 minutes ago, Awol said: Exactamundo. All these predictions of woe presuppose the EU remains a fixed and unchanged entity. It may well look significantly different economically (for the worse) even before we are due to leave in 2019. It's like there's a willful blindness to what's actually happening on the Continent economically, politically and socially. Two things - the predictions don't presuppose the EU remains fixed and unchanged. It won't. There are elections and so on in due course. It will change. However commerce and trade and busines and all the rest is (overall) like an oil tanker where any change in direction occurs over a long period, rather than as some jittery, flightly, will o' the wisp thing that changes with the (political) wind. I might be blind to what's going on on the continent, economically - I'm just a bod on the interwebs trying to keep up with things, so that's fair. But I'm not sure it's willful on my part. And if you don't mean me, then presumably you're referring to various UK and European Bankers and economists rather than any of the highly informed leave campaign people like the marvellously bright (so bright he invesnts his own facts) IDS and that trustworthy Michael Gove and Boris Johnson £350 million, 400,000 jobs - all completely made up. Well I bow to their superior fantasy, sorry knowledge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 16 minutes ago, blandy said: I might be blind to what's going on on the continent, economically - I'm just a bod on the interwebs trying to keep up with things, so that's fair. But I'm not sure it's willful on my part. And if you don't mean me, then presumably you're referring to various UK and European Bankers and economists rather than any of the highly informed leave campaign people like the marvellously bright (so bright he invesnts his own facts) IDS and that trustworthy Michael Gove and Boris Johnson £350 million, 400,000 jobs - all completely made up. Well I bow to their superior fantasy, sorry knowledge. I think he was talking about politically. Interestingly enough though, Le Pen came out today and said if FN won the presidency, she'd rather stay in and reform it. Quite the 'EU'-turn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 (edited) 47 minutes ago, blandy said: I've not said it's fact, Tony. And clearly as mentioned before, George Osborne in particular is a lying toerag and there was a lot of scare-mongering. However, based on immigration control being incompatible with full freedom of movement, it seems (according to al lthe various media and analysts) that the UK will not retain full membership of the single market. Also at risk is financial services and a further factor is EU bods seeking to ensure the UK undergoes some degree of "pain" to discourage others. On top of that is the fall in the pound against the dollar and Euro, which increases the costs of imports (and we import far more than we export). Even the more sane leave people acknowledge that Brexit will bring pain in the short to medium term. Longer term is a complete unknown Two things - the predictions don't presuppose the EU remains fixed and unchanged. It won't. There are elections and so on in due course. It will change. However commerce and trade and busines and all the rest is (overall) like an oil tanker where any change in direction occurs over a long period, rather than as some jittery, flightly, will o' the wisp thing that changes with the (political) wind. I might be blind to what's going on on the continent, economically - I'm just a bod on the interwebs trying to keep up with things, so that's fair. But I'm not sure it's willful on my part. And if you don't mean me, then presumably you're referring to various UK and European Bankers and economists rather than any of the highly informed leave campaign people like the marvellously bright (so bright he invesnts his own facts) IDS and that trustworthy Michael Gove and Boris Johnson £350 million, 400,000 jobs - all completely made up. Well I bow to their superior fantasy, sorry knowledge. No I wasn't having a pop at you, it's an observation of the broader conversation or rather the lack of consideration given to the other side of the dynamic. Like you I'm trying to keep up with the rapidly changing situation but that stuff is underpinned by longer term fundamentals that are driving the direction of travel. The largest destabilizing factor is monetary union and the dire unemployment levels it's caused in Southern Europe, leading to economic and political chaos. You can then layer onto that the migration crisis, radical Islam and the EU's democratic deficit. We don't need to be told by politicians about these things, they are observable facts. I think they are having profound effect on events on the Continent that can only increase and reinforce each other because solutions are missing for all of them. That's what I'm talking about, not trying to score points off other posters. Edited January 5, 2017 by Awol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted January 5, 2017 Author Moderator Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Awol said: No I wasn't having a pop at you, ...The largest destabilizing factor is monetary union and the dire unemployment levels it's caused in Southern Europe, leading to economic and political chaos. You can then layer onto that the migration crisis, radical Islam and the EU's democratic deficit. We don't need to be told by politicians about these things, they are observable facts. I think they are having profound effect on events on the Continent that can only increase and reinforce each other because solutions are missing for all of them. That's what I'm talking about, not trying to score points off other posters. Good, Ta Re the migration crisis, radical Islam and the EU's democratic deficit - completely agree they're all factors to be taken into account re staying/leaving or change is a-comin'. Where I differ is that none of them affect the single market or trade or the UK in terms of economic benefits. at best they are neutral in terms of our economy, and more realistically they could I suppose weaken the Eurozone and or continental economies, generally, and adversely affect our export market and demand for UK goods. I don't see them as being factors which would from an economic perspective benefit the UK - going back to my view that I think it is abundantly clear that the overall impact of leaving, economically, is and will be negative, in terms of jobs, finance and all the rest, which Tony and yourself seem to disagree with. Or have we moved on from that, now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Economists are facing their 'Michael Fish' moment, says top Bank of England Official Brexit and the financial crisis have presented the economics profession with its "Michael Fish" moment, according to Bank of England's Chief economist Andy Haldane. ..... "It's true, it's a fair cop, we had foreseen a sharper slowdown than has happened", he acknowledged. It is "clear the economics profession is to some degree in crisis", Mr Haldane said, noting that this was also true in the 1930's when the Great Depeession led to a radical overhaul of macroeconomics. more on link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 A couple of interesting quotes on the Grauniad's live blog today: From Chris Giles in the FT (about the economic forecasts for a post-Brexit vote Britain): Quote In fact, we know the predominant source of error. It stemmed from underestimating the strength of household consumption after the vote for Brexit. Economists expected a vote to leave would increase household savings in the short term, both as precautionary insurance against uncertainty and to begin an adjustment to a less prosperous future. These were reasonable guesses, based on recent household behaviour — for example, at the time of huge banking uncertainty early in 2008. But rather than rising, household savings fell throughout 2016. The savings ratio dropped to an exceptionally low level in the third quarter as consumers went on a borrowing and spending binge not seen since before the financial crisis. The interesting question is why households acted in this way. There are three plausible reasons. First, households correctly thought Brexit would improve their personal finances and borrowed and spent accordingly. Second, they were deceived into expecting economic gains from Brexit and still went out to spend. And, third, households watched sterling tumble, understood the likely effect on prices and brought forward their consumption, so they were spending in the knowledge their money would buy less in future. Economic analysis allows us to set out these possibilities; it tells us only the last of the three options is sustainable; but it does not yet inform us which is correct. By the end of 2017, we will know whether historically low levels of saving have persisted through the year, and this will provide a pretty good answer to the question of why spending held up so well after the EU referendum. If spending was merely brought forward, there will be a nasty jolt in the economy And from The Times about Rogers: Quote Liam Fox and David Davis’s alleged failure to understand briefings in the weeks after their appointment left Sir Ivan Rogers in despair, friends have said. Britain’s top diplomat in Brussels, who resigned on Tuesday, considered quitting on more than one occasion after the referendum. Sources said that he was frustrated by his attempts to induct the two Brexit cabinet ministers in the details of the single market and customs union ... Sir Ivan is understood to believe that Mrs May understands the dangers this poses. However, he expressed frustration about the fact that Dr Fox, the international trade secretary, Mr Davis, the Brexit secretary, and Boris Johnson, foreign secretary, did not take the chance or consequences of a chaotic outcome seriously enough 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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