The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[Morley_crosses_to_Withe]

3 hours ago, lapal_fan said:

This whole thing is barely even worth talking about anymore. 

Let's face it, no one knows what's going on.. even the people who are meant to.

Exactly this and it was the point of my post. You have Cambridge academics in that paper who are saying it won't be that bad and that migration (to those who think its important) will fall. This contradicts other papers I've read. 

FWIW...I voted remain, but despite reading as much as I possibly could about the issue, I still didn't feel that I was fully informed enough. And I absolutely haven't got a **** clue what's going to happen.

[Awol]

19 minutes ago, blandy said:

Good, Ta

Re the migration crisis, radical Islam and the EU's democratic deficit - completely agree they're all factors to be taken into account re staying/leaving or change is a-comin'. Where I differ is that none of them affect the single market or trade or the UK in terms of economic benefits. at best they are neutral in terms of our economy, and more realistically they could I suppose weaken the Eurozone and or continental economies, generally, and adversely affect our export market and demand for UK goods. I don't see them as being factors which would from an economic perspective benefit the UK - going back to my view that I think it is abundantly clear that the overall impact of leaving, economically, is and will be negative, in terms of jobs, finance and all the rest, which Tony and yourself seem to disagree with. Or have we moved on from that, now?

In my view the economics of exit have always been a marginal consideration in that they won't have a significant impact one way or the other, or at least not until the medium term - where I think it'll be beneficial to have left. 

I think the benefits of the single market are overdone and the opportunities from leaving underplayed, but we'll need 10 yrs at least to make a judgement on who's correct - and may not agree then anyway! 

The meta trend stuff will imo profoundly affect the EU and would have had a direct impact on the UK if we'd voted Remain.

What happens to them will still have 2nd and 3rd order effects on the UK, but with an economy that hopefully will be more globally diversified, and with more physical control over our borders and migration, those effects will be ameleorated, imo.

Put plainly I expect the next 10-20 yrs to be pretty bad, but less bad than they would have been if we'd stayed in the EU - whatever that may become.  

 

 

[Morley_crosses_to_Withe]

6 hours ago, StefanAVFC said:

Well they'll bloody believe experts now won't they?

Likewise - they won't believe the experts now will they? 

I've given up. Who knows what to believe.

 

[PompeyVillan]

2 hours ago, Awol said:

In my view the economics of exit have always been a marginal consideration in that they won't have a significant impact one way or the other, or at least not until the medium term - where I think it'll be beneficial to have left. 

I think the benefits of the single market are overdone and the opportunities from leaving underplayed, but we'll need 10 yrs at least to make a judgement on who's correct - and may not agree then anyway! 

The meta trend stuff will imo profoundly affect the EU and would have had a direct impact on the UK if we'd voted Remain.

What happens to them will still have 2nd and 3rd order effects on the UK, but with an economy that hopefully will be more globally diversified, and with more physical control over our borders and migration, those effects will be ameleorated, imo.

Put plainly I expect the next 10-20 yrs to be pretty bad, but less bad than they would have been if we'd stayed in the EU - whatever that may become.  

 

 

And that to me, is a considered and legitimate pro Brexit argument. It's one I can respect and agree to disagree with. 

However, in my opinion, I don't hear many thought out or informed reasons for Brexit. You could argue likewise for remain, I guess. 

It's what polarises this debate so much perhaps, expert opinion has gone out the window and voting on principle rather than information pervades. 

I guess as much as I get fed up of Brexit sovereignty and immigration arguments, which I think are ridiculous, the likes of yourself get fed up of the financial implosion stuff. 

Given the uncertainty, it's bound to happen. 

[HanoiVillan]

3 hours ago, Awol said:

we'll need 10 yrs at least to make a judgement on who's correct - and may not agree then anyway! 

The first part of that sentence is definitely true, and the second half is as close to a banker as possible. 

[blandy]

3 hours ago, Awol said:

I think the benefits of the single market are overdone and the opportunities from leaving underplayed, but we'll need 10 yrs at least to make a judgement on who's correct - and may not agree then anyway! 

I think the exact opposite

[peterms]

4 hours ago, Awol said:

Economists are facing their 'Michael Fish' moment, says top Bank of England Official

 

 

Haldane is one of the more sensible people, and his comments and speeches are generally worth reading.

But on this point, he's a bit slow in reflecting what quite a few of the moee interesting economists have been saying for quite a long time.

The significance of him saying it is that the heresy has now infected the citadel.  Where will it end?  Will our youth no longer be taught fantasy models of an economy that never existed?  Will we have to recignise that private debt, not government debt, is the issue?  And that they are not both debt in the same meaning of rhe word?

It could all get very confusing very quickly.

[Awol]

Just now, peterms said:

Haldane is one of the more sensible people, and his comments and speeches are generally worth reading.

But on this point, he's a bit slow in reflecting what quite a few of the moee interesting economists have been saying for quite a long time.

The significance of him saying it is that the heresy has now infected the citadel.  Where will it end?  Will our youth no longer be taught fantasy models of an economy that never existed?  Will we have to recignise that private debt, not government debt, is the issue?  And that they are not both debt in the same meaning of rhe word?

It could all get very confusing very quickly.

Don't, please... Having spent literally years arguing with you about the relative merits of austerity, your countryman Mark Blythe has persuaded me I was talking absolute cock - although in my defence it was the mainstream variety. 

Lesson: it pays to look for analysis outside the bubble and not put too much stock in the opinion of, ahem, experts. 

[peterms]

20 minutes ago, Awol said:

Don't, please... Having spent literally years arguing with you about the relative merits of austerity, your countryman Mark Blythe has persuaded me I was talking absolute cock - although in my defence it was the mainstream variety. 

Lesson: it pays to look for analysis outside the bubble and not put too much stock in the opinion of, ahem, experts. 

So it's not my arguments that were persuasive, then?  (Retires, hurt)

[Chindie]

13 hours ago, snowychap said:

A couple of interesting quotes on the Grauniad's live blog today:

From Chris Giles in the FT (about the economic forecasts for a post-Brexit vote Britain):

That, on the economic forecasts, would tie into the figures I've been seeing at work (albeit for business rather than individuals, though frankly eventually there's no difference). The predictions basically show 2017 being poor, and then things get progressively worse through to the 2019, the extent of how bad depending entirely on the deal we get. A truly hard Brexit they've pegged as being very unpleasant for businesses come 2019, with a leap in firms shutting their doors. 

[TrentVilla]

 

We all need to win the Euro Millions while we still can...

[tonyh29]

2 hours ago, Chindie said:

That, on the economic forecasts, would tie into the figures I've been seeing at work (albeit for business rather than individuals, though frankly eventually there's no difference). The predictions basically show 2017 being poor, and then things get progressively worse through to the 2019, the extent of how bad depending entirely on the deal we get. A truly hard Brexit they've pegged as being very unpleasant for businesses come 2019, with a leap in firms shutting their doors. 

how  / why would an insurance company have that sort of info ?

genuine question , I mean it could well be that they underwrite lots of businesses etc and thus need to have a prediction model  but reason I ask is I recall another poster who works for a huge global corporate saying he'd gone to a meeting with bosses there and they said an interest rate rise was inevitable and would happen soon  .. this post was made in 2012 ,maybe even 2011 , still haven't had that rate rise .... if it's their core business to know that information then fair enough , time to panic , but that's why I ask

FWIW , I've a inkling of what the governments plan is to ensure these predictions don't come true  , near me in Surrey , in fact probably all within 15 miles of me in Surrey , there are plans to build a new garden village at Longcross , a new village at Fairoaks and we've also had leaflets through for 3500 new houses in Woodham , and  initial plans for the farm land 1/2 a mile down the road from me ... not to mention plans to build another huge development in Send / Ripley (on green belt land )  ...

now that's a heck of a lot of building , in just one area  , but Fairoaks and Longcross are planned to be self contained villages , with their own schools , hospitals , business parks etc  .... I'd imagine the job creation will be immense , the irony might be that we don't have enough labour to fill a lot of these newly created jobs  , but repeat that across other regions and it  looks like they are going to try and spend their way out of trouble ...

of course we could then look to Ireland and Spain to see the long term outlook of these building plans ......

 

[Chindie]

10 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

how  / why would an insurance company have that sort of info ?

genuine question , I mean it could well be that they underwrite lots of businesses etc and thus need to have a prediction model  but reason I ask is I recall another poster who works for a huge global corporate saying he'd gone to a meeting with bosses there and they said an interest rate rise was inevitable and would happen soon  .. this post was made in 2012 ,maybe even 2011 , still haven't had that rate rise .... if it's their core business to know that information then fair enough , time to panic , but that's why I ask

They have access to enormous amounts of business information that is pertinent to the situation, and an interest in the outcomes of any situation that affects business like this. Apologies for being vague.

[snowychap]

15 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

there are plans to build a new garden village at Longcross

Do we ever actually build any of these garden villages/towns which keep on getting announced every year/every other year?

There was a Black Country Garden City announced last year with plans for over 45,000 homes by 2025 yet according to this:

Quote

...about 500 had been built under the scheme so far

How about the Garden City schemes that Osborne announced a couple of years ago like Ebbsfleet - how are they doing?

Edited January 6, 2017 by snowychap

[StefanAVFC]

18 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

the irony might be that we don't have enough labour to fill a lot of these newly created jobs

I wonder where they can get the surplus from

Edited January 6, 2017 by StefanAVFC

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

46 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

now that's a heck of a lot of building , in just one area  , but Fairoaks and Longcross are planned to be self contained villages , with their own schools , hospitals , business parks etc  .... I'd imagine the job creation will be immense , the irony might be that we don't have enough labour to fill a lot of these newly created jobs  , but repeat that across other regions and it  looks like they are going to try and spend their way out of trouble ...

of course we could then look to Ireland and Spain to see the long term outlook of these building plans ......

I think this is a really good idea FWIW,  could be genius ? It could create genuine community spirit and all that since it is self contained.  (The Ireland / Spain thing was timing / bad luck I suppose and could still happen)

[StefanAVFC]

18 hours ago, Awol said:

Economists are facing their 'Michael Fish' moment, says top Bank of England Official

 

 

Weren't the predictions based on an immediate triggering of A50 though?

[blandy]

18 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Weren't the predictions based on an immediate triggering of A50 though?

That's what Cameron said he'd do, so I imagine at least partly so. I think the overall outcome, over time won't be affected by the short term A50 trigger timing, but obviously, as AWOL pointed out the other day.

On 04/01/2017 at 15:26, Awol said:

...Brexit can't '...be a mess' when it hasn't even begun. That's ridiculous. 

 

[Awol]

46 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Weren't the predictions based on an immediate triggering of A50 though?

If they were then it's surprising that the BoE chief economist would publically fall on his sword unecessarily, following up that mea culpa with talk of a crisis in the economics profession and broken predictive models.

He clearly feels that they got it wrong in whatever context. 

[tonyh29]

2 hours ago, snowychap said:

Do we ever actually build any of these garden villages/towns which keep on getting announced every year/every other year?

There was a Black Country Garden City announced last year with plans for over 45,000 homes by 2025 yet according to this:

How about the Garden City schemes that Osborne announced a couple of years ago like Ebbsfleet - how are they doing?

good point   ... the local  residents are currently arming themselves with pitchforks to chase the developers away but I got the impression Longcross and Fairoaks villages were all but done  ...