bickster Posted September 14, 2023 Moderator Share Posted September 14, 2023 @ml1dchbringing the conversation here as it's more relevant Quote You're obviously right in the medium-to-long term, but I think you're underestimating the different ways that that entirely different party might manifest itself. If they lose heavily, Suank will be gone (as leader at the very least) and the members will still probably want one more "he just wasn't right-wing enough" leader in them before they find their next Cameron. But the problem with predicting who that might be is that in the context of a heavy defeat it's impossible to have any idea what candidates there might be and what parliamentary power base they might still have. Penny Mordaunt is second favourite to be next Tory leader and is supposed to be the sensible(ish) candidate from the centre, but would comfortably lose her seat on current polling. With so little knowledge about what the 2025 party will look like (in size and political position), it's tricky to draw many conclusions on how it will behave. If you want a giggle, here is an extensive list of who it won't be according to that latest MRP poll & Electoral Calculus (Current MP listed, some are already standing down) Spoiler Seat Name Winner 2019 Pred Winner MP as at 2019 Aldershot CON LAB Leo Docherty Altrincham and Sale West CON LAB Graham Brady Amber Valley CON LAB Nigel Mills Ashfield CON LAB Lee Anderson Ashford CON LAB Damian Green Aylesbury CON LAB Rob Butler Banbury CON LAB Victoria Prentis Barrow and Furness CON LAB Simon Fell Basildon South and East Thurrock CON LAB Stephen Metcalfe Basingstoke CON LAB Maria Miller Bassetlaw CON LAB Brendan Clarke-Smith Beckenham CON LAB Bob Stewart Bedfordshire Mid CON LAB Nadine Dorries Bedfordshire North East CON LAB Richard Fuller Bedfordshire South West CON LAB Andrew Selous Berwick-upon-Tweed CON LAB Anne-Marie Trevelyan Beverley and Holderness CON LAB Graham Stuart Bexleyheath and Crayford CON LAB David Evennett Birmingham Northfield CON LAB Gary Sambrook Bishop Auckland CON LAB Dehenna Davison Blackpool North and Cleveleys CON LAB Paul Maynard Blackpool South CON LAB Scott Benton Blyth Valley CON LAB Ian Levy Bolsover CON LAB Mark Fletcher Bolton North East CON LAB Mark Logan Bolton West CON LAB Chris Green Bosworth CON LAB Luke Evans Bournemouth East CON LAB Tobias Ellwood Bournemouth West CON LAB Conor Burns Bracknell CON LAB James Sunderland Brigg and Goole CON LAB Andrew Percy Broadland CON LAB Jerome Mayhew Bromley and Chislehurst CON LAB Bob Neill Broxbourne CON LAB Charles Walker Broxtowe CON LAB Darren Henry Burnley CON LAB Antony Higginbotham Burton CON LAB Kate Griffiths Bury North CON LAB James Daly Bury South CON LAB Christian Wakeford Bury St Edmunds CON LAB Jo Churchill Calder Valley CON LAB Craig Whittaker Camborne and Redruth CON LAB George Eustice Cambridgeshire North West CON LAB Shailesh Vara Cambridgeshire South CON LIB Anthony Browne Cambridgeshire South East CON LAB Lucy Frazer Cannock Chase CON LAB Amanda Milling Carlisle CON LAB John Stevenson Carshalton and Wallington CON LIB Elliot Colburn Charnwood CON LAB Edward Argar Chatham and Aylesford CON LAB Tracey Crouch Cheadle CON LIB Mary Robinson Chelmsford CON LAB Vicky Ford Chelsea and Fulham CON LAB Greg Hands Cheltenham CON LIB Alex Chalk Chesham and Amersham CON LIB Cheryl Gillan Chingford and Woodford Green CON LAB Iain Duncan Smith Chippenham CON LIB Michelle Donelan Chipping Barnet CON LAB Theresa Villiers Cities of London and Westminster CON LAB Nickie Aiken Cleethorpes CON LAB Martin Vickers Colchester CON LAB Will Quince Colne Valley CON LAB Jason McCartney Congleton CON LAB Fiona Bruce Copeland CON LAB Trudy Harrison Corby CON LAB Tom Pursglove Cornwall North CON LIB Scott Mann Crawley CON LAB Henry Smith Crewe and Nantwich CON LAB Kieran Mullan Croydon South CON LAB Chris Philp Darlington CON LAB Peter Gibson Dartford CON LAB Gareth Johnson Daventry CON LAB Chris Heaton-Harris Derby North CON LAB Amanda Solloway Derbyshire Dales CON LAB Sarah Dines Derbyshire Mid CON LAB Pauline Latham Derbyshire North East CON LAB Lee Rowley Derbyshire South CON LAB Heather Wheeler Devon Central CON LAB Mel Stride Devon East CON MIN Simon Jupp Devon North CON LIB Selaine Saxby Dewsbury CON LAB Mark Eastwood Don Valley CON LAB Nick Fletcher Dorset South CON LAB Richard Drax Dorset West CON LIB Chris Loder Dover CON LAB Natalie Elphicke Dudley North CON LAB Marco Longhi Dudley South CON LAB Mike Wood Durham North West CON LAB Richard Holden Eastbourne CON LIB Caroline Ansell Eastleigh CON LIB Paul Holmes Eddisbury CON LAB Edward Timpson Elmet and Rothwell CON LAB Alec Shelbrooke Erewash CON LAB Maggie Throup Esher and Walton CON LIB Dominic Raab Filton and Bradley Stoke CON LAB Jack Lopresti Finchley and Golders Green CON LAB Mike Freer Folkestone and Hythe CON LAB Damian Collins Forest of Dean CON LAB Mark Harper Fylde CON LAB Mark Menzies Gainsborough CON LAB Edward Leigh Gedling CON LAB Tom Randall Gillingham and Rainham CON LAB Rehman Chishti Gloucester CON LAB Richard Graham Grantham and Stamford CON LAB Gareth Davies Gravesham CON LAB Adam Holloway Great Grimsby CON LAB Lia Nici Great Yarmouth CON LAB Brandon Lewis Guildford CON LIB Angela Richardson Halesowen and Rowley Regis CON LAB James Morris Haltemprice and Howden CON LAB David Davis Harborough CON LAB Neil O'Brien Harlow CON LAB Robert Halfon Harrow East CON LAB Bob Blackman Harwich and North Essex CON LAB Bernard Jenkin Hastings and Rye CON LAB Sally-Ann Hart Hazel Grove CON LIB William Wragg Hemel Hempstead CON LAB Mike Penning Hendon CON LAB Matthew Offord Hereford and South Herefordshire CON LAB Jesse Norman Hertford and Stortford CON LAB Julie Marson Hertfordshire North East CON LAB Oliver Heald Hertsmere CON LAB Oliver Dowden Hexham CON LAB Guy Opperman Heywood and Middleton CON LAB Chris Clarkson High Peak CON LAB Robert Largan Hitchin and Harpenden CON LAB Bim Afolami Huntingdon CON LAB Jonathan Djanogly Hyndburn CON LAB Sara Britcliffe Ipswich CON LAB Tom Hunt Isle of Wight CON LAB Bob Seely Keighley CON LAB Robbie Moore Kensington CON LAB Felicity Buchan Kettering CON LAB Philip Hollobone Kingswood CON LAB Chris Skidmore Leicestershire North West CON LAB Andrew Bridgen Leicestershire South CON LAB Alberto Costa Leigh CON LAB James Grundy Lewes CON LIB Maria Caulfield Lincoln CON LAB Karl McCartney Loughborough CON LAB Jane Hunt Macclesfield CON LAB David Rutley Mansfield CON LAB Ben Bradley Meriden CON LAB Saqib Bhatti Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East CON LAB Simon Clarke Milton Keynes North CON LAB Ben Everitt Milton Keynes South CON LAB Iain Stewart Morecambe and Lunesdale CON LAB David Morris Morley and Outwood CON LAB Andrea Jenkyns Newark CON LAB Robert Jenrick Newcastle-under-Lyme CON LAB Aaron Bell Norfolk Mid CON LAB George Freeman Norfolk North CON LIB Duncan Baker Norfolk South CON LAB Richard Bacon Northampton North CON LAB Michael Ellis Northampton South CON LAB Andrew Lewer Northamptonshire South CON LAB Andrea Leadsom Norwich North CON LAB Chloe Smith Nuneaton CON LAB Marcus Jones Pendle CON LAB Andrew Stephenson Penistone and Stocksbridge CON LAB Miriam Cates Penrith and The Border CON LAB Neil Hudson Peterborough CON LAB Paul Bristow Plymouth Moor View CON LAB Johnny Mercer Poole CON LAB Robert Syms Portsmouth North CON LAB Penny Mordaunt Pudsey CON LAB Stuart Andrew Reading West CON LAB Alok Sharma Redcar CON LAB Jacob Young Redditch CON LAB Rachel Maclean Reigate CON LAB Crispin Blunt Ribble South CON LAB Katherine Fletcher Ribble Valley CON LAB Nigel Evans Richmond CON LAB Rishi Sunak Rochester and Strood CON LAB Kelly Tolhurst Rochford and Southend East CON LAB James Duddridge Romford CON LAB Andrew Rosindell Rossendale and Darwen CON LAB Jake Berry Rother Valley CON LAB Alexander Stafford Rugby CON LAB Mark Pawsey Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner CON LAB David Simmonds Runnymede and Weybridge CON LAB Ben Spencer Rushcliffe CON LAB Ruth Edwards Rutland and Melton CON LAB Alicia Kearns Salisbury CON LAB John Glen Scarborough and Whitby CON LAB Robert Goodwill Scunthorpe CON LAB Holly Mumby-Croft Sedgefield CON LAB Paul Howell Selby and Ainsty CON LAB Nigel Adams Sherwood CON LAB Mark Spencer Shipley CON LAB Philip Davies Shrewsbury and Atcham CON LAB Daniel Kawczynski Sittingbourne and Sheppey CON LAB Gordon Henderson Skipton and Ripon CON LAB Julian Smith Sleaford and North Hykeham CON LAB Caroline Johnson Somerset North CON LAB Liam Fox Somerset North East CON LAB Jacob Rees-Mogg Somerton and Frome CON LIB David Warburton Southampton Itchen CON LAB Royston Smith Southport CON LAB Damien Moore Spelthorne CON LAB Kwasi Kwarteng St Austell and Newquay CON LAB Steve Double St Ives CON LIB Derek Thomas Stafford CON LAB Theo Clarke Staffordshire Moorlands CON LAB Karen Bradley Stevenage CON LAB Stephen McPartland Stockton South CON LAB Matt Vickers Stoke-on-Trent Central CON LAB Jo Gideon Stoke-on-Trent North CON LAB Jonathan Gullis Stoke-on-Trent South CON LAB Jack Brereton Stourbridge CON LAB Suzanne Webb Stroud CON LAB Siobhan Baillie Suffolk Central and Ipswich North CON LAB Dan Poulter Suffolk Coastal CON LAB Therese Coffey Suffolk West CON LAB Matt Hancock Sussex Mid CON LAB Mims Davies Sutton and Cheam CON LIB Paul Scully Sutton Coldfield CON LAB Andrew Mitchell Swindon North CON LAB Justin Tomlinson Swindon South CON LAB Robert Buckland Tamworth CON LAB Christopher Pincher Tatton CON LAB Esther McVey Taunton Deane CON LIB Rebecca Pow Telford CON LAB Lucy Allan Thanet North CON LAB Roger Gale Thanet South CON LAB Craig Mackinlay Thirsk and Malton CON LAB Kevin Hollinrake Thornbury and Yate CON LIB Luke Hall Thurrock CON LAB Jackie Doyle-Price Truro and Falmouth CON LAB Cherilyn Mackrory Uxbridge and South Ruislip CON LAB Boris Johnson Wakefield CON LAB Imran Ahmad-Khan Walsall North CON LAB Eddie Hughes Wantage CON LAB David Johnston Warrington South CON LAB Andy Carter Warwickshire North CON LAB Craig Tracey Watford CON LAB Dean Russell Waveney CON LAB Peter Aldous Wellingborough CON LAB Peter Bone Wells CON LIB James Heappey Welwyn Hatfield CON LAB Grant Shapps West Bromwich East CON LAB Nicola Richards West Bromwich West CON LAB Shaun Bailey Weston-Super-Mare CON LAB John Penrose Wiltshire South West CON LAB Andrew Murrison Wimbledon CON LAB Stephen Hammond Winchester CON LIB Steve Brine Woking CON LAB Jonathan Lord Wokingham CON LIB John Redwood Wolverhampton North East CON LAB Jane Stevenson Wolverhampton South West CON LAB Stuart Anderson Worcester CON LAB Robin Walker Workington CON LAB Mark Jenkinson Worthing East and Shoreham CON LAB Tim Loughton Worthing West CON LAB Peter Bottomley Wrekin, The CON LAB Mark Pritchard Wycombe CON LAB Steve Baker Wyre and Preston North CON LAB Ben Wallace Wyre Forest CON LAB Mark Garnier Yeovil CON LIB Marcus Fysh York Outer CON LAB Julian Sturdy Yorkshire East CON LAB Greg Knight Aberconwy CON LAB Robin Millar Bridgend CON LAB Jamie Wallis Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South CON LAB Simon Hart Clwyd South CON LAB Simon Baynes Clwyd West CON LAB David Jones Delyn CON LAB Rob Roberts Monmouth CON LAB David Davies Preseli Pembrokeshire CON LAB Stephen Crabb Vale of Clwyd CON LAB James Davies Vale of Glamorgan CON LAB Alun Cairns Wrexham CON LAB Sarah Atherton Ynys Mon CON LAB Virginia Crosbie Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine CON SNP Andrew Bowie Dumfries and Galloway CON SNP Alister Jack Moray CON SNP Douglas Ross 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seat68 Posted September 14, 2023 Share Posted September 14, 2023 My personal wishlist is Jonathan Gullis and 30p Lee gone. Not so confident about Stafford going red. We have a couple of local issues. First and foremost the local Labour Party are poor at campaigning, secondly there is an insistence historically, since David Kidney, to parachute someone in. Also we are an apathetic town, a useless MP, really useless, but people can't be bothered with change, even though she is very unpopular. Finally she is a loud voice against the Asylum seeker centre we have. I do however have a hope that Labour campaign well, get a local candidate that can string a sentence together and not look like catweazle, they may stand a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted September 14, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted September 14, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Seat68 said: I joked, but there is one canvasser that pops up regularly for the local labour party, and he doesnt do them any favours. Is it this guy? Edited September 14, 2023 by sidcow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seat68 Posted September 14, 2023 Share Posted September 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, sidcow said: Is it this guy? That's literally my front door, and yes it was that guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted September 14, 2023 Share Posted September 14, 2023 2 hours ago, sidcow said: Is it this guy? He came ‘round here, offering people free broadband, access to healthcare and a better transport system. We ran him out of town the **** loon. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted September 14, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted September 14, 2023 Of course Mickey Fabs isn't going to lose his seat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted September 14, 2023 Share Posted September 14, 2023 9 minutes ago, fightoffyour said: Of course Mickey Fabs isn't going to lose his seat. Depends on how good the Labour / Lib Dem / Green tactical voting is: Implied MP at 2019: Michael Fabricant (CON) County/Area: Staffordshire (West Midlands) Electorate: 74,665 Predicted Turnout: 61.4% Implied Majority 2019: 22,581 Party Predicted Votes Predicted Share CON 18,859 41.1% LAB 15,537 33.9% LIB 5,688 12.4% Reform 3,436 7.5% Green 2,285 5.0% OTH 63 0.1% CON Majority 3,322 7.2% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted September 15, 2023 Share Posted September 15, 2023 (edited) Theresa May was on Andrew Marr's show yesterday, seeming to aim to rehabilitate her reputation Claiming she wanted a softer Brexit as the result was so close, and went completely unchallenged on the red lines she introduced that made a softer brexit impossible. Must be great being a Tory PM, knowing the next guys will be so **** terrible a few years out of the public eye is all you need to look better by comparison, Edited September 15, 2023 by Davkaus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted September 15, 2023 Moderator Share Posted September 15, 2023 1 minute ago, Davkaus said: Theresa May was on Andrew Marr's show yesterday, seeming to aim to rehabilitate her reputation Claiming she wanted a softer Brexit as the result was so close, and went completely unchallenged on the red lines she introduced that made a softer brexit impossible. The challenge should have been along the lines of "I appreciate you personally wanted a softer Brexit so which elements of your party forced you to diverge from the path you personally as PM wished to go down?" followed up with "How did you allow that to happen?" Alternatively "Were you PM in name only?" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted September 15, 2023 Share Posted September 15, 2023 The charitable view on her time during the negotiations is that she knew full well that the ‘technological solution’ to a frictionless border would likely not arrive anytime soon if at all so she was in fact negotiating a Brexit that kept the U.K. in the customs union indefinitely whilst giving off the pretence to the right of her party that she had tough ‘red lines’. Unfortunately nobody went for it and the U.K. ended up out of the customs union entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicho Posted September 15, 2023 Share Posted September 15, 2023 23 hours ago, Seat68 said: My personal wishlist is Jonathan Gullis and 30p Lee gone. I’d prefer if they those two win the only seats so they have to suffer the embarrassment, sit them top right at the back, maybe 3 throw Fabricant in there as the new leader of the 3 MP party and end the party forever over the next 5 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted September 16, 2023 Share Posted September 16, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seat68 Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 I was looking into Sealioning this morning. Its the act of derailment using repeated requests for evidence, and/or ignoring evidence previously given. I stress that this is not in relation to The Celebrity Scandals thread, it prompted me to look, but it's a wider point than that. A lot of the references that popped up on the first couple of pages on Google associate the tactic with Conservatives and the alt right, and I wondered if it was a deflection tactic of Tories and the modern Republican Party, or does it fall outside of party lines and its more of a personality trait designed to stifle conversation, regardless of politics? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 (edited) Sunak making a desperate anti-climate change lunge before the election. Seemingly based on them winning a by-election in a formerly solid Tory seat by about 500 votes. Massively going to confuse the message and car manufacturers are already planning for 2030 already. Edited September 20, 2023 by The Fun Factory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 12 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said: Sunak making a desperate anti-climate change lunge before the election. Seemingly based on them winning a by-election in a formerly solid Tory seat by about 500 votes. Massively going to confuse the message and car manufacturers are already planning for 2030 already. I think it’ll be welcomed by car makers as they’ll be able to sell petrol cars for longer and makes less pressure to be fully switched over. I also think it’s designed to stop Chinese electric cars flooding the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted September 20, 2023 Moderator Share Posted September 20, 2023 8 minutes ago, Genie said: I think it’ll be welcomed by car makers as they’ll be able to sell petrol cars for longer and makes less pressure to be fully switched over. I also think it’s designed to stop Chinese electric cars flooding the market. You think global manufacturers set their manufacturing targets to UK demand? All this does is make the UK a dumping ground for unsold cars towards 2030 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xela Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, bickster said: You think global manufacturers set their manufacturing targets to UK demand? All this does is make the UK a dumping ground for unsold cars towards 2030 Europe and Japan is 2035 for ban on ICE sales. UK was an outlier at 2030 (excluding hybrids). We're just moving in-line with the majority, if that is what Rishi is planning. Edited September 20, 2023 by Xela 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, bickster said: You think global manufacturers set their manufacturing targets to UK demand? All this does is make the UK a dumping ground for unsold cars towards 2030 I’m certain they do. 8th biggest market in the world. I think it’s likely other markets could follow with some loosening of the rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 From the little news I’ve heard, the initial reaction from the car industry appears to be ‘the UK is no longer a serious place to invest’. Too many random changes of policy announced via media drip feed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 (edited) 35 minutes ago, Genie said: I think it’ll be welcomed by car makers as they’ll be able to sell petrol cars for longer and makes less pressure to be fully switched over. Reaction from car makers so far has been absolute fury that they are being led up to the top of the hill again, only to be marched back down again. As we saw with Br*xit, businesses can cope with change - they can't deal with a Government that changes its mind all the time. Edited September 20, 2023 by ml1dch 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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