ml1dch Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 (edited) Anyway, moving on from people waving their fists at clouds... Truss / Sunak looking more and more nailed on. Although the next home for Tugendhat's votes are probably the least predictable to er...predict. Edited July 18, 2022 by ml1dch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, ml1dch said: Anyway, moving on from people waving their fists at clouds... Truss / Sunak looking more and more nailed on. Although the next home for Tugendhat's votes are probably the least predictable to er...predict. Or folks disagreeing with someone bad at maths. Which right winger do you fancy BTW? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 You can put your house on Mad Nads being pissed if it's after 9am and she's had time for breakfast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 This is taking far too long. Have they heard of a single transferable vote? All of the candidates are terrible and we going to have 6 weeks of the last 2 standing to appeal to the party faithful with more utter nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 31 minutes ago, Jareth said: Or folks disagreeing with someone bad at maths. Which right winger do you fancy BTW? Bad at maths or are you bad at reading? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 1 minute ago, KentVillan said: Bad at maths or are you bad at reading? D minus for originality 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 49 minutes ago, ml1dch said: Anyway, moving on from people waving their fists at clouds... Truss / Sunak looking more and more nailed on. Although the next home for Tugendhat's votes are probably the least predictable to er...predict. The power of the daily mail. Heaven help us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Does anyone disagree that the Badenoch vote will go to Truss? Less sure that the members will choose Truss over Sunak but a distinct possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannedfromHandV Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 54 minutes ago, markavfc40 said: Brilliant, they both know they’re done in front line politics, can’t even be bothered to pretend to be competent individuals any longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, hippo said: Does anyone disagree that the Badenoch vote will go to Truss? Less sure that the members will choose Truss over Sunak but a distinct possibility. I think it’s a bit of a myth that the votes move about in neat blocs. MPs have lots of motives besides ideology/policy to back certain candidates. You can see that already with how votes have transferred in the earlier rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, KentVillan said: I think it’s a bit of a myth that the votes move about in neat blocs. MPs have lots of motives besides ideology/policy to back certain candidates. You can see that already with how votes have transferred in the earlier rounds. No they won't move in near blocks. But I still think Truss will hoover up a good whack of the Badenoch vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Albrighton Posted July 18, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted July 18, 2022 My guess is the final three figures will be (admittedly quick calculations on the back of packet of B&H gold)… Sunak about 135, Truss about 115 and Mordaunt about 105. That’s on the assumption that Sunak and Mordaunt split the Tugendhat support evenly and Truss picks up 75% of the Badenoch support, with the rest again being split between Sunak and Mordaunt (I think Truss picking up 75% is an, erm, conservative guess). Sound plausible? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Mark Albrighton said: My guess is the final three figures will be (admittedly quick calculations on the back of packet of B&H gold)… Sunak about 135, Truss about 115 and Mordaunt about 105. That’s on the assumption that Sunak and Mordaunt split the Tugendhat support evenly and Truss picks up 75% of the Badenoch support, with the rest again being split between Sunak and Mordaunt (I think Truss picking up 75% is an, erm, conservative guess). Sound plausible? More than plausible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 (edited) 13 minutes ago, hippo said: No they won't move in near blocks. But I still think Truss will hoover up a good whack of the Badenoch vote. Apparently the Tugendhat vote has a big “anyone but Truss” contingent who may opt to vote for Badenoch to eliminate Truss from the contest. These things aren’t predictable on ideology because there is so much tactical voting and horse trading. These are Tory MPs, they are devious ****. Edit: also Sunak has enough votes now that he could probably lend 5-10 votes to Badenoch to help eliminate Truss Edited July 18, 2022 by KentVillan 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Mordaunt out to 5-1 with the bookies now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Albrighton Posted July 18, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted July 18, 2022 1 minute ago, ml1dch said: More than plausible. Looking at it and assuming Truss does pick up the Badenoch votes that I’m estimating, I assume that Mordaunt has to pick up something like 25 or so of Tugendhat’s 31 votes to have a chance of making the final two (along with picking up a bit of share of Badenoch’s along the way). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 This is where I got it from btw. I think there’s a few twists and turns left in this… the bookies odds have been all over the place, overreacting to single polls and general public reaction to debates (irrelevant). And now Sunak is sitting pretty near the 120 guarantee, he may want to start messing things up for his rivals. He may even have supporters who have been doing this from the start, so they can give a sense of momentum going into the member vote when they split for him, or to boost the reputation of younger candidates. For instance, Gove has backed Badenoch, and I’d be surprised if he didn’t eventually go for Sunak over Truss/Mordaunt, given everything Cummings has said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 1 hour ago, KentVillan said: Apparently the Tugendhat vote has a big “anyone but Truss” contingent who may opt to vote for Badenoch to eliminate Truss from the contest. These things aren’t predictable on ideology because there is so much tactical voting and horse trading. These are Tory MPs, they are devious ****. Edit: also Sunak has enough votes now that he could probably lend 5-10 votes to Badenoch to help eliminate Truss Ooooo so sly, I love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted July 18, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted July 18, 2022 No white men left in the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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