Davkaus Posted June 18, 2023 Share Posted June 18, 2023 5 hours ago, bickster said: Breaking even after months of the SNP being in utter turmoil doesn't seem like a great win, the SNP will be thinking they've got 18 months to recover and regain that lead. Not sure the new SNP leadership are capable of that, but for it to be that close shows how little the Scots trust the Westminster lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted June 18, 2023 Share Posted June 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, Davkaus said: Breaking even after months of the SNP being in utter turmoil doesn't seem like a great win, the SNP will be thinking they've got 18 months to recover and regain that lead. Not sure the new SNP leadership are capable of that, but for it to be that close shows how little the Scots trust the Westminster lot Outside of an election, a poll lead isn't a win and a poll deficit isn't a loss. But going from third on 18% in the last national election to parity or a small lead is pretty spectacular. Not least because there is an inbuilt third or so of voters who don't care about SNP "utter turmoil", because they'd take independent turmoil over UK cohesion. Put it this way, Labour being at parity with the SNP is about 10% higher than they'd have bitten your hands off for as recently as twelve months ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted June 19, 2023 Author Share Posted June 19, 2023 4 hours ago, chrisp65 said: I think it was only me that mentioned Starmer, once. But I felt it was legitimate, he has made any number of quite impressive ‘pledges’ on his own Keir Starmer website. A pledge being quite a strong turn of phrase. Then, slowly but surely, one by one, he’s finding reasons why it wouldn’t be practical or sensible to keep to his pledges, he’s softening them in multiple ways reducing the promise, pushing out the date, putting less money to it, finding other routes. That’s not a shopping list of accusations, that’s reading off his personal website which is still up, and then reading his more recent tweeks to his pledges. As I mentioned in my first post, that’s my perception of centrists, they know the problem, but they also know all the problems in addressing it, so they sort of try to muddle through a compromised middle ground. Which inevitably actually turns in to not doing all that much about it, and we status quo masquerading as moderate centrism. He promised £28 Billion for green industries in year 1 of a Labour government. He has a speech later today on the subject. Let’s see if since that promise, he’s found some problems that will force him to do something a bit less than his original pitch. None of the above makes me a Corbyn supporter though. He isnt even in government yet and he is back tracking on policies he wanted to deliver so how can he be trusted in government? He should have done all his sums and ensured it was affordable or doable before putting on website. Not a good look for him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted June 19, 2023 Moderator Share Posted June 19, 2023 9 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: He isnt even in government yet and he is back tracking on policies he wanted to deliver so how can he be trusted in government? He should have done all his sums and ensured it was affordable or doable before putting on website. Not a good look for him Yeah because economic forecasts haven't changed at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted June 19, 2023 Moderator Share Posted June 19, 2023 16 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: He isnt even in government yet and he is back tracking on policies he wanted to deliver so how can he be trusted in government? He should have done all his sums and ensured it was affordable or doable before putting on website. Not a good look for him Sure. This is why opposition announcements about policies well before elections are best left till later. The oppo can’t win here. If they don’t say anything then they get accused of having no alternative or no ideas and if they do and then the economy changes or there’s a war and the policy is then out of date they get slagged off for changing their mind or not being trustworthy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted June 19, 2023 Author Share Posted June 19, 2023 9 minutes ago, bickster said: Yeah because economic forecasts haven't changed at all. So? Its not like this isnt expected when you maka pledges so far away from next election. Poor excuse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted June 19, 2023 Author Share Posted June 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, blandy said: Sure. This is why opposition announcements about policies well before elections are best left till later. The oppo can’t win here. If they don’t say anything then they get accused of having no alternative or no ideas and if they do and then the economy changes or there’s a war and the policy is then out of date they get slagged off for changing their mind or not being trustworthy. I agree. Its better to say it closer to the time. For me its just a strategy to reel in voters. Promise something you cant deliver then slowly at a time take it away as your likely to win anyway when you have such a unpopular government in power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted June 19, 2023 Moderator Share Posted June 19, 2023 10 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: Promise something you cant deliver then slowly at a time take it away If that was the intention (I really don’t think it was) that would be idiotic. The sort of thing Trump or Johnson might do, but not a “normal” leader Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wainy316 Posted June 19, 2023 Share Posted June 19, 2023 Starmer goes back on his pledges because of the government's handling of the economy. So his solution is to keep things the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted June 19, 2023 Author Share Posted June 19, 2023 42 minutes ago, blandy said: If that was the intention (I really don’t think it was) that would be idiotic. The sort of thing Trump or Johnson might do, but not a “normal” leader Hopefully not Pete but as the more fays go by this is how its coming a across to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted June 19, 2023 Moderator Share Posted June 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Demitri_C said: I agree. Its better to say it closer to the time. For me its just a strategy to reel in voters. Promise something you cant deliver then slowly at a time take it away as your likely to win anyway when you have such a unpopular government in power So for three and a half years say, you want the opposition to say they haven't got any policies because an election is too far away? How much support do you think they'd pick up to oust the government if they did that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted June 19, 2023 Moderator Share Posted June 19, 2023 51 minutes ago, bickster said: So for three and a half years say, you want the opposition to say they haven't got any policies because an election is too far away? How much support do you think they'd pick up to oust the government if they did that? It's what I'd do, kind of. In the early phases of a new gov't, the oppo (having just lost) needs to keep quiet and work out why they lost. Next, they need, in the middle part of the 5 years, to analyse and oppose and critique the Gov't, and then in the last 18 months start laying out principles and areas where they will be different and better and more positive than the current lot, and only towards the last 8 months or so start laying out the skeletons of policies to the public - like "we know that [Housing] is problem and we know that the current government has been very naughty, but we're going to be good and bring in [controls/money]" And then the manifesto gives the detail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted June 19, 2023 Author Share Posted June 19, 2023 1 hour ago, bickster said: So for three and a half years say, you want the opposition to say they haven't got any policies because an election is too far away? How much support do you think they'd pick up to oust the government if they did that? Are you going to remember all their policies from three years ago? You think millions of the population remember a policy from that far back? Alot of people cant even remember what they did last weekend so yes i do think my point is valid As for your other question sometimes you have to just let the current government destroy themselves as the tories are doing. If you look remotely capable you are likely to win the next election Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted June 19, 2023 Moderator Share Posted June 19, 2023 4 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: Are you going to remember all their policies from three years ago? You think millions of the population remember a policy from that far back? Alot of people cant even remember what they did last weekend so yes i do think my point is valid As for your other question sometimes you have to just let the current government destroy themselves as the tories are doing. If you look remotely capable you are likely to win the next election Are you arguing with yourself? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted June 19, 2023 Author Share Posted June 19, 2023 29 minutes ago, bickster said: Are you arguing with yourself? okayyyyyy wierd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 On 19/06/2023 at 16:37, bickster said: Are you arguing with yourself? Reading the last few posts, most definitely yes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted June 21, 2023 Moderator Share Posted June 21, 2023 On 19/06/2023 at 15:42, blandy said: It's what I'd do, kind of. In the early phases of a new gov't, the oppo (having just lost) needs to keep quiet and work out why they lost. Next, they need, in the middle part of the 5 years, to analyse and oppose and critique the Gov't, and then in the last 18 months start laying out principles and areas where they will be different and better and more positive than the current lot, and only towards the last 8 months or so start laying out the skeletons of policies to the public - like "we know that [Housing] is problem and we know that the current government has been very naughty, but we're going to be good and bring in [controls/money]" And then the manifesto gives the detail. I'd agree, and I think to an extent it's what we've seen. I think in terms of the two jobs he's got, I'd rate Starmer so far as: Strategy to win the election 9/10 What he plans to do when he's in 3/10 But there's still some time to improve on that second bit - I don't like him in terms of where he appears to stand politically, and I doubt very much whether he'll announce much that will please me, but I think he's a very capable political strategist and I think he'll do very well in an election. The one thing I would say though is that I think the Labour party have both followed your timeline and done the opposite to an extent - they started with a set of principles and areas where they would be different and better - they had the last bit in place first almost - and they've then moved away from the bit they started with that was 'good'. Kier's ten principles would do it - but I can't see him reintroducing them - so the last bit, that final eighteen months, is going to be doubly tricky for him. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheltenham_villa Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 (edited) following PMQs and the debate about mortgage rates, what options really do we have to control inflation. With my rudimentary economics A level (plus a career in banking which may skew my thoughts) im still stumped by how else do we get it under control. Id love to know what Starmer is planning here, i fully get the argument about not giving away your policies but under a labour government id still expect the BoE to be increasing interest rates. Edited June 21, 2023 by cheltenham_villa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted June 21, 2023 Moderator Share Posted June 21, 2023 1 hour ago, OutByEaster? said: I'd agree, and I think to an extent it's what we've seen. I think in terms of the two jobs he's got, I'd rate Starmer so far as: Strategy to win the election 9/10 What he plans to do when he's in 3/10 But there's still some time to improve on that second bit - I don't like him in terms of where he appears to stand politically, and I doubt very much whether he'll announce much that will please me, but I think he's a very capable political strategist and I think he'll do very well in an election. The one thing I would say though is that I think the Labour party have both followed your timeline and done the opposite to an extent - they started with a set of principles and areas where they would be different and better - they had the last bit in place first almost - and they've then moved away from the bit they started with that was 'good'. Kier's ten principles would do it - but I can't see him reintroducing them - so the last bit, that final eighteen months, is going to be doubly tricky for him. Yeah, pretty much how I see it too. The only slightly different interpretation I have is on the last bit. And depending on your (anyone’s) level of cynicism the ten principles thing. Since he said them there has been a global pandemic and a big war and a Brexit and a financial fustercluck. I agree he won’t be reintroducing them, or some of them, but I’m not sure that’s difficult or tricky for him, beyond the Corbynite left probably sniping, but that’s probably helpful to him if they do. It’s notable for example that the Corbynites have been nigh on silent, even when he was hoofed out for being a stubborn plank/absolute boy (delete as applicable). And the reason they are silent is they want to win, both to keep their jobs and to maybe get roles, but also to rout the baby eaters after all this time. He needs 2 or 3 big ideas at most, the rest is being done for him by imploded tories, who’ve basically given up completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted June 21, 2023 Moderator Share Posted June 21, 2023 20 minutes ago, blandy said: Yeah, pretty much how I see it too. The only slightly different interpretation I have is on the last bit. And depending on your (anyone’s) level of cynicism the ten principles thing. Since he said them there has been a global pandemic and a big war and a Brexit and a financial fustercluck. I agree he won’t be reintroducing them, or some of them, but I’m not sure that’s difficult or tricky for him, beyond the Corbynite left probably sniping, but that’s probably helpful to him if they do. It’s notable for example that the Corbynites have been nigh on silent, even when he was hoofed out for being a stubborn plank/absolute boy (delete as applicable). And the reason they are silent is they want to win, both to keep their jobs and to maybe get roles, but also to rout the baby eaters after all this time. For me, the difficulty doesn't come so much from those harking back as it does in terms of him having to come up with a new set of ideals that are better than his first set, which were actually pretty good - he's given himself a high bar and I think people will criticise if he misses it. If he comes back with a slightly uninspiring set - people will compare them to the old ones. I think you're right, he doesn't need a load of ideas, just a few that resonate with people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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