The 2015 General Election

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

It would be lovely if after weeks of squabbling Labour/Tories had the integrity to agree on some form of temporary government in order to pass electoral reform, then go at it again in a few months.

 

Although I'm not sure such a temporary solution is feasible.

Edited May 3, 2015 by CarewsEyebrowDesigner

[chrisp65]

yes, the 'grand alliance' is getting a lot of comment over the last few days

 

it's as feasible as any other grouping following everyone's red line pronouncements

[dont_do_it_doug.]

I dont know much about english politics, but according to Noel Gallagher Ed Miliband is a communist, is that true ?

He's barely a socialist. It's depressing.

[Chindie]

'National governments' rarely work out. Very unlikely to happen this time, both parties would have too much to lose in such an arrangement, IMO. It's going to be the absolutely last resort.

[brommy]

With just 3 days to go before the voting starts, isn't it time for us to take a guess at the number each party gains of the 650 available?

For your reference, in 2010 the result was:

Con 307

Lab 258

LD 57

Others 28.

My prediction for 2015 is:

Con 292

Lab 263

SNP 50

LD 26

UKIP 4

Others 15.

For this election, I have separated out the SNP and UKIP from 'Others', purely because they have formed a good deal of interest in the campaign to date.

[Guest av1]

Is it bad that with a few days left I'm still no closer to deciding who gets my vote?

[mjmooney]

I dont know much about english politics, but according to Noel Gallagher Ed Miliband is a communist, is that true ?

He's barely a socialist. It's depressing.

Quite. Never turn to popstars for political analysis.

[bickster]

I dont know much about english politics, but according to Noel Gallagher Ed Miliband is a communist, is that true ?

He's not even a socialist. It's depressing.

Fixed

As for Noel Gallagher… drinks at numer 10 with Tony Blair is all you need to know

[blandy]

If all the parties keep to their promises with regards to coalitions / agreements in the event of a hung parliament then we are heading for completely uncharted waters. We could be at this for some time to come. I see a constitutional crisis coming on

I've bolded some of your quote, because that's the underlying bit that's relevant, I think.

[markavfc40]

Over the last few weeks I have heard from political commentators a few times that there may well be a late surge towards one party or that the undecideds may go one way or the other. Just over two days before an election though are there really that many people,enough to make a difference, that have yet to decide which way they are going to vote? in addition surely nothing any party is going to say now is going to convince someone to change their vote.

It is also not as though one of the main two parties have a voter base, based on the polls, that can get any lower or go elsewhere. Both are at around 34%.

No party is clearly going to get an outright majority as that would mean the polls would have to be way out and I just don't see it. Does everyone now pretty much accept that? If that is the case then taking some small comfort the worst outcome for the UK as a whole would have been an outright Tory majority and that won't then happen. As vicious as some of the cuts over the last five years have been and the devastating impact they have had on the poorest, sick and most vulnerable they have been nothing compared to what would have been, and what could have been, had the Tories got an outright majority. It will say a lot about them that come the next election it will have been 28 years since they last got an overall majority.

Hopefully the result Friday will signal the start of voting reform in this country and be the death knell for first past the post. I don't see the Tories getting enough seats to mean that even with the support of the Lib Dems, DUP and UKIP they could form a coalition or get a Queens speech passed. If Clegg doesn't retain his own seat I also have strong doubts that the Libs would support the Tories anyway. Labour will be the second biggest party but would almost certainly get a Queens speech passed with the support of the left wing parties but there would then be a question of legitimacy of Labour having come second but Miliband being Prime Minister. The five year fixed term Parliament Act introduced in 2011 though means that it would take two thirds of the commons to bring about another election before 2020 so we could well see a Labour minority Government for five years and the fun and games that will bring.

Edited May 4, 2015 by markavfc40

[PaulC]

I dont know much about english politics, but according to Noel Gallagher Ed Miliband is a communist, is that true ?

He's not even a socialist. It's depressing.

Fixed

As for Noel Gallagher… drinks at numer 10 with Tony Blair is all you need to know

and if he considers Tony Blair a socialist that god help him.

[snowychap]

Hopefully the result Friday will signal the start of voting reform in this country and be the death knell for first past the post.

I doubt it. It's only four years since the AV referendum (turnout about 42%, I think). I don't think there's enough appetite for it outside of its advocates.

...there would then be a question of legitimacy of Labour having come second but Miliband being Prime Minister.

There really shouldn't be as it doesn't matter. If there is and there is also simultaneous support for electoral reform from the same areas then it would be pretty daft.

The five year fixed term Parliament Act introduced in 2011 though means that it would take two thirds of the commons to bring about another election before 2020 so we could well see a Labour minority Government for five years and the fun and games that will bring.

We could do. I wonder whether we may also see a situation where, if the SNP frustrates a minority Labour gov's attempts at legislating (but at the same time supports that administration in any confidence motion), the Tories and Labour may funnel through the same division lobby to trigger an early election.

[Xela]

Met some mates on Saturday for a beer or two and got talking about the election and who we'd vote for. Surprising thing was, two people who voted Labour last time are now going to vote Conservative.

[snowychap]

Over the last few weeks I have heard from political commentators a few times that there may well be a late surge towards one party or that the undecideds may go one way or the other. Just over two days before an election though are there really that many people,enough to make a difference, that have yet to decide which way they are going to vote? in addition surely nothing any party is going to say now is going to convince someone to change their vote.

There was a ComRes poll last week that had the undecideds down as about 40% though with the caveat that undecideds often turn out and vote for the party that they've been leaning towards all along and the split of the undecideds largely going like the rest of the country.

But I guess it increases the uncertainty over the outcome and, obviously, slight differences in certain areas can have huge implications overall.

[coda]

So hot on the heels of his meeting with Ed , Brand has broken his don't vote stance and come out to urge people to vote .....

For the Greens

Top work Ed ....

 

Brand's just defected to Labour.

[tonyh29]

So hot on the heels of his meeting with Ed , Brand has broken his don't vote stance and come out to urge people to vote .....

For the Greens

Top work Ed ....

Brand's just defected to Labour.

Should gain the Tories a few more votes at least

[markavfc40]

Just had a an old guy drop a conservative leaflet through my door. I managed to catch him further down the road and asked him why he thought I should vote Tory. The guys views were that right wing and basically racist that I left the conversation telling him he was delivering for the wrong party as his views were closer aligned to UKIP or the BNP. Every problem in the country was down to immigration but not from Eastern European countries no this old chap was old school racist and blaming the Indians and Jamaicans that had come over years ago. On the face of it this was a respectable elderly man who apparently from what he told me had owned his own business but if this is the kind of people the parties have doing their canvassing then God help anyone else trying to enter into a sensible conversation with them.

[dont_do_it_doug.]

I dont know much about english politics, but according to Noel Gallagher Ed Miliband is a communist, is that true ?

He's not even a socialist. It's depressing.

Fixed

As for Noel Gallagher… drinks at numer 10 with Tony Blair is all you need to know

and if he considers Tony Blair a socialist that god help him.

Who, me? Not at all. Don't really get the point.

[coda]

 

 

So hot on the heels of his meeting with Ed , Brand has broken his don't vote stance and come out to urge people to vote .....

For the Greens

Top work Ed ....

Brand's just defected to Labour.

Should gain the Tories a few more votes at least

 

 

Doubt there are many Tories, potential or otherwise, in his audience. He's an arse for telling people not to vote then endorsing a party after registration has closed.

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

What does the PM's office look like?

 

I don't think I've ever seen it. Is there a desk? What kind of computer?