The 2015 General Election

[Eames]

Ah.....its Owen Jones.  Almost as bonkers as that "Dr Eoin Clarke" knobbler. 

[blandy]

 

14% UKIP

 

yuck.

 

Under PR that would be a catastrophe. Under FPTP it could be a huge bonus. ...

Au contraire.

That's a very very short term view.

Under the current FPTP what the UKIP support level is doing is forcing the tories to be ever more UKIPy, to try and grab their voters. So the current choice of Gov't is between UKIPy tories or SNPy Labour, basically.

 

Under PR, what it would do would be force the tories to be less UKIPy, to distinguish themselves from the UKIPs and open up more chance to be partner with saner more centre ground party(ies). PR might also have the added bonus of splitting the tory party right up, forever - the most nutjob of them going off to join UKIPs or whoever and do their hating everything that's not English and from 1950, and the less barking ones staying and being the "we love rich people" party.

[lapal_fan]

I think the JT on the TCP could definitely be beneficial to the GHD.

 

Coupled with the fact the the TT's seem to be riling up the LEDs, I think it'll take a good slice of fortune for any seats to be taken.

 

Maybe if the FYI could get into bed with the rich brigade, then the TT's wouldn't be in a position to do something worthwhile.

 

GG.

[tonyh29]

 

 

“No firing squads, no torture or retribution, no bloodshed. A very British coup, wouldn’t you say?” Amid an election campaign that has become ever more 

ominous in tone, I find myself remembering these words, uttered by Sir Percy Browne, the head of MI5 in the former Labour minister Chris Mullin’s epic 1980s political drama A Very British Coup. Harry Perkins, a leftist ex-steelworker from Sheffield, has swept to power on a radical programme, only to face co-ordinated establishment sabotage. In a climactic scene, Sir Percy blackmails Perkins into resigning on grounds of ill-health.

 

Ed Miliband is no Harry Perkins. A commitment to raise the top rate of income tax to the same level as Japan’s, to levy a tax on the top 0.5 per cent of homeowners and to cut public expenditure every year is not exactly parliamentary socialism in our time. But long ago, most of the media and other powerful forces in British society decided that the prospect of Miliband as prime minister was simply unacceptable. His leadership represents a modest departure from three decades of consensus established by Thatcher’s governments, but any departure is deemed intolerable. The highly personalised “Get Ed” campaign has taken a sinister turn. The Tories and their media allies are now declaring that a government led by Miliband would be illegitimate. A very British coup of our own. Although openDemocracy has been warningabout this possibility for weeks, discussion has been all but banished from the mainstream media.

 

Our parliamentary system is quite straightforward. A government needs to be able to muster the support of the majority of sitting MPs in order to be legitimate. If it can survive a vote of no confidence, and most MPs back its Queen’s Speech – the government’s legislative programme – then its democratic legitimacy is unimpeachable. The magic number in order to govern – given Sinn Fein’s boycott of the Westminster parliament – is 323. But the Tories and their allies are arguing otherwise. They have told newspapers that they will “declare victory” if the party wins “most seats and votes”, and that Labour will have no “legitimacy” if it is the second party in terms of seats and needs to rely on the SNP. When Theresa May and the Mail on Sundaysuggested that an SNP-backed Labour government would represent “the worst crisis since the abdication” – eclipsing the minor blip of the Nazi conquest of Europe – it was rightly mocked on Twitter. But this may well prove a mild foretaste of what is to come.

 

We are sleepwalking into a dangerous moment. If there is a left-of-centre, anti-Tory majority in parliament then the Tories must fall, however many seats they have won. Left-wing parties will have won the election and a left-of-centre government led by Labour must take office. And yet it would be deemed “illegitimate” by the Tories and most of the media. That really would be a situation with few precedents in an advanced democracy: where the opposition and media refuse to accept the democratic legitimacy of the national government.

 

The “unionist” Tories have been fanning English nationalism over the past few weeks for two obvious reasons: to boost the SNP in Scotland, in order to increase the likelihood that the Tories will emerge the biggest single party; and to damage Labour in key English marginals. They may well succeed, ensuring a Tory triumph in the general election and leaving this whole scenario redundant. But it never was just a strategy aimed at winning on Thursday. It is a scorched-earth policy, all aimed at what happens after 7 May. The plotters will attempt to administer a fatal blow to the Union, whether they see it as such or not: they will tell the Scottish people that the MPs they have elected are political pariahs who have no rightful say over the governing of the country. And then they will wage the mother of all campaigns against the legitimacy of a Labour-led government.

 

Our very British coup will surely unfold this way. The Tories declare victory if they have the most seats, regardless of the parliamentary arithmetic. Key supportive newspapers endorse this line and pressure is put on the broadcasters to follow suit. The Tories begin publicly reassembling their coalition with the Lib Dems within hours of the polls closing, despite knowing they have no majority in parliament, in order to cement the image that they remain the legitimate government.

 

In the run-up to the Queen’s Speech on 27 May – with David Cameron remaining as Prime Minister – the media campaign against the SNP will make the current onslaught look timid. Amid political uncertainty, a falling stock market and the value of  the pound are used to build an atmosphere of national emergency. A handful of right-wing Labour MPs – the likes of Rochdale’s Simon Danczuk, perhaps – are wheeled out on TV to echo the line of illegitimacy, helping to construct a narrative of growing Labour turmoil. Moves to depose Miliband are encouraged. The aim will be straightforward: to make it politically impossible for Labour to form a government even though left-of-centre parties have a parliamentary majority, and to pave the way for new elections against a backdrop of right-wing hysteria.

 

As I say, the Tory campaign of fear or smear over Scotland could prove a success, allowing Cameron to return to No 10. If not, a very British coup will begin to unfold as soon as the polling stations close. It will have few opponents in the mainstream media. The left and the Labour movement will have to mobilise in great numbers. The health of our democracy and the future of our country will be at stake. 

 

New Statesman

 

Ah a nice  unbiased left wing article without any substance

 

Good to see it's not just the right wing 4th estate then

[Jon]

This bit from Owen Jones is interesting, but slightly innacurate, I think:

 

"If there is a left-of-centre, anti-Tory majority in parliament then the Tories must fall, however many seats they have won. Left-wing parties will have won the election and a left-of-centre government led by Labour must take office. And yet it would be deemed “illegitimate” by the Tories and most of the media."

 

It's looking at Plaid, SNP, Green & Labour

 

Vs

 

Tory and Kipper

 

It has neglected the Lie Dems, who do seem willing, as has been proven 5 years ago, to get into bed with pretty much anyone in order to get a taste of power. So you could see a situation where the 'progressive alliance' of the left have more seats than Tory & Kipper, but the Lie Dems get into bed to prop the Tories up. In that scenario, every single Lib Dem MP should be immediately shot, and every Lib Dem supporter should feel ashamed of themselves.

[chrisp65]

Why would you spend £500 to stand in an election - but then not bother?

 

I only ask because I haven't seen or heard anything whatsoever from our 'local' Lib Dem candidate. They'd only be expected to come a very distant fifth anyway, but the guy simply hasn't shown up. Literally. I've followed him on twitter and he appears to be a councillor in a neighbouring constituency. So his tweets are a 50 / 50 mix of reminding people in a different constituency that they need to put bin bags out on Tuesday as there's been a bank holiday. Or, pictures of him knocking doors for other candidates over in the Bristol area or attending rallies in London. 

 

We haven't had a leaflet, not an advert in the local free paper, he has declined to attend local hustings. He clearly isn't even ever in the area, busy commuting between Cardiff, London and Bristol.

 

Why would you even bother?

 

Surely they could either have saved their money and not stood here, spending £500 elsewhere. Or, lordy forbid, found someone that lived in the area that could actually attend the occasional meeting or drop a leaflet through a door or just be hanging around in the High Street with a rosette on? If they have absolutely nobody locally from the population of 130,000, then why bother standing?  Weird.

[tonyh29]

presumably the parties think fielding candidates shows them as having  major party status  ?

 

plus I believe they are crucial for convincing bodies  to treat you as a major party and gaining things like the invite to TV debates

[islingtonclaret]

First election not voting Lib Dem. Sad times for me.

I think the only victory would be an outcome matching Nate Silver's prediction that UKIP will not win ONE seat. Here's hoping.

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

THE SCOTS ARE COMING!!!111111111111111

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

[chrisp65]

presumably the parties think fielding candidates shows them as having  major party status  ?

 

plus I believe they are crucial for convincing bodies  to treat you as a major party and gaining things like the invite to TV debates

 

Yes, I get that, it also allows the 2% of the electorate locally that want to vote LibDem to vote for them.

 

But why such a stinker of a token candidate? Stick a 23 year politics student in there to get some practise before going to a winnable seat. Stick a local bird in that could at least say they live here and know about whatever local issue comes up. 

 

But to field a candidate that hasn't been here, even when invited to events? 

 

I hope they get beaten into 6th place by the Greens.

I doubt they'll end as low as 7th behind the CISTA (Cannabis Is Safer Than Alcohol) Party. I haven't seen him around either, but there's probably a good explanation for that.

[brommy]

First election not voting Lib Dem. Sad times for me.

I think the only victory would be an outcome matching Nate Silver's prediction that UKIP will not win ONE seat. Here's hoping.

It will be interesting to see many UKIP supporters who had voted against the Alternative Vote system in 2011 (claiming that first past the post is a British tradition), calling for change as their double figure percentage of the vote results in less than 1% of the seats.

[islingtonclaret]

It's going to be the Scots who are the kingmakers, and I don't really care. I'll just grab the popcorn and watch the show

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

 

I doubt they'll end as low as 7th behind the CISTA (Cannabis Is Safer Than Alcohol) Party. I haven't seen him around either, but there's probably a good explanation for that.

 

You have those chaps too! I didn't realise they were nationwide.

[chrisp65]

There does appear to be some panic that the Scots are doing exactly what they were encouraged to do by the Labour and Conservative Parties during the Independence Referendum.

 

Stay with us, contribute and make your distinct voice heard. That was very much what was urged. Turns out now, it's not what was really meant.

 

-------

 

CED, yep, looks completely 'happy' on his electoral pen pic, love him.

 

CISTA matalanafesto:

FOR - EU referendum, war on tax evasion, minimum wage £8 (now not 2020), road and rail investment, increased budgets for armed services, NHS, police and affordable house building.

AGAINST - Cuts in library services, HS2, Trident, Bedroom Tax.

Edited May 6, 2015 by chrisp65

[blandy]

Ah a nice  unbiased left wing article without any substance

 

 

Good to see it's not just the right wing 4th estate then

Undoubtedly an opinion piece, but there's plenty of substance in there.

I don't see either way that a magazine article is quite the same as day after day of front page bollex from the likes of the Sun and The Heil and the Torygraph.

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

Did Owen Jones nick that argument from the piece I posted on here a few pages back?

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

Awfully similar!

 

 

Interesting read: A Very British Coup

 

 

 

Cameron has nowhere to go. So instead of winning the election fair and square he's trying to manage the post-election settlement ahead of time. And this has involved creating a narrative. This narrative has three strands. 

1. A Labour/SNP coalition would be illegitimate. 
   This has been the overwhelming message of the last three weeks. No rationale has been given for this absurd claim. The SNP's MPs will be democratically elected. The SNP would no more be holding Labour 'to ransom' than the Lib Dems have held the Tories to ransom. Coalitions mean identifying overlaps and doing deals on policy. Cameron's scaremongering suggests this will lead to the break-up of the Union. But (a) given the No vote in last year's referendum, this does not look like a likely option any time soon but also ( that's just an opinion Cameron disagrees with; he also disagrees with many Lib Dem policies but he's been in Coalition with them, and © ruling out allowing virtually all Scotland's elected representatives from taking part in UK government looks like a de facto break-up of the Union anyway (and that kind of attitude will hasten the actual break-up). It looks likely that the Lib Dems and Tories will have virtually no seats in Scotland this time round, so a Coalition between them would have no representation from Scotland. Is that legitimate? The problem is that this narrative has become so strong that Miliband has been cornered into saying he'll not form a Coalition or even do a deal with the SNP. I suspect Miliband has been forced to declare this because of the pincer movement of the Tory narrative on one side and his own party's visceral hatred of the upstart SNP. I'm hoping these statement can be carefully parsed to permit some kind of agreement on HoC votes, because otherwise Miliband has been suckered into losing the election before a single seat is declared. 
2. The party with the largest number of votes must have the first chance to try to form a government.
   This isn't true. Nick Clegg seems to believe it's true. It's what he said last time. But it isn't true. But the Tories are spreading this rumour around, using the weasel word 'legitimacy' and their friends in the press are repeating it as if it has the slightest constitutional significance. A Tory party with 279 seats would have no legitimacy, no right to rule just because the Tories and Nick Clegg say so. If Labour get fewer seats than the Tories, that has almost no practical significance because they are both a long way short of a majority. Yet the Telegraph think for Miliband to pursue a Coalition with a view to becoming Prime Minister, this would be a 'plot'. Neither the Tories nor Labour would be able to command the confidence of the House on their own. They will have to form Coalitions because that's how our system works.
3. The incumbent must have the first chance to try to form a government before anyone else.
   This is also not true, but I bet we'll hear a lot about this. What is true is that Cameron remains PM unless a new government is formed, but that doesn't mean anything about whether he gets to try to form his Government first. And note, this didn't happen in 2010 - because then the Tories, successfully, put about the idea that Labour had lost the moral authority to govern. If the predictions are correct, the Coalition will have lost 52 seats and will have lost their majority. In a sense, they will have lost the election. Labour and the SNP between them will have gained 55 seats (14 and 41 respectively) and will have overtaken the Coalition. But Cameron will deliberately confuse the distinction between his right to continue as PM until a new government is formed and a fictional priority in all negotiations.

By pushing this narrative at us over the next week, the Tories hope to mount what is effectively a constitutional right-wing coup. The Tories will be rejected by the electorate but they hope they will overcome this minor inconvenience and rule anyway. In this they know they will be supported by a great deal of the press. The model is George W Bush's first Presidential election, stolen by a mixture of Fox News, Democrat indecision, and the Supreme Court.

 

 

 

Though yer man says 'The brilliant Owen Jones has written a great piece on the same subject and, in a happy meeting of minds, we've arrived at the same title. The last three paragraphs are terrifyingly plausible.'

 

Meeting of minds...

[Xann]

If a hung Parliament stops TTIP, perhaps it won't be so pants.

 

...day after day of front page bollex from the likes of the Sun and The Heil and the Torygraph...

 

 

Like this crap.

[maqroll]