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Relegation v4.0


BleedClaretAndBlue

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Had we won today I would have felt very confident of staying up, though at least we didn't lose. We have to make our home form better or we are down. All remaining home games we 'could' win, but we our record in the last 4 years that is laughable.  2 wins and versus Burnley, Everton and West Ham would probably keep us up( even 4 points probably), plus a random result away from home. I think it may go down to Burnley at home which could be interesting.

 

33 points could probably be enough, but due to our GD I think 34 is the mark we need to hit. Two wins should easily be enough - a win a two draws perhaps more likely.

 

I can see us getting that.

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I don't think at this stage of the season you should be looking too far ahead and trying to predict results as logic seems to go out the window and unexpected results do seem to be more frequent.

You can only really look at the here and now. We sit 3 points and 2 places above the relegation zone. Others do have games in hand but I'd much rather have the points on the board.

I guess it is human nature that we think that it is other teams that have been dire for almost the whole of the season that will pick up unlikely results and go on a little run. I'd say the way we play now though we are just as likely as any side to pick up an unexpected result or two.

I don't know at what point we will be safe but I am still very confident that we will be. Out of interest if given the choice now would anyone take going into the last game of the season knowing three points would see us safe?

Edited by markavfc40
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I don't think at this stage of the season you should be looking too far ahead and trying to predict results as logic seems to go out the window and unexpected results do seem to be more frequent.

You can only really look at the here and now. We sit 3 points and 2 places above the relegation zone. Others do have games in hand but I'd much rather have the points on the board.

I guess it is human nature that we think that it is other teams that have been dire for almost the whole of the season that will pick up unlikely results and go on a little run. I'd say the way we play now though we are just as likely as any side to pick up an unexpected result or two.

I don't know at what point we will be safe but I am still very confident that we will be. Out of interest if given the choice now would anyone take going into the last going of the season knowing three points would see us safe?

Depends what situation Burnley are in. If they are already safe/already down, yes. Otherwise no chance.
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Even in my most optimistic dreams I can't see us needing nothing from the Burnley game.

 

We will have to play for the 3 points anyway, as setting up for a draw will be too risky. Prescriptions of sedatives will soar in May

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I still think we'll beat Spurs.

 

Because narrative.

 

Narrative works both ways, ie the players he 'nurtured' coming back to haunt him

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I have just done the predictor thing. I have us finishing 16th. I have tried to be as fair as I can and not let heart rule head. My bottom three ends up as Leicester Hull and.........Albion. they have a brutal set of fixtures. 

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QPR have a guaranteed 3pts vs. Newcastle at home in their run in

 

It's a shame we lost to them as that has given them a nice buffer as they are useless and only team currently with more injuries than us.I wouldn't bet on them winning again this season

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I have just done the predictor thing. I have us finishing 16th. I have tried to be as fair as I can and not let heart rule head. My bottom three ends up as Leicester Hull and.........Albion. they have a brutal set of fixtures. 

 

Had completely discounted WBA but if they only muster a draw with Leicester this weekend then it gets very interesting - that is the last game of theirs they would call winnable in their current form - they may not get another point after that, so could finish on 34 points. There's always one team who just sink at this point of the season.

 

Sunderland also, if Palace hold them to at least a draw this weekend, then depending on their mentality, Leicester home is there best hope of 3 points until end of the season. They could easily finish the season on or near 34 points.

 

Trouble is I also have QPR, Burnley and us all finishing on 34 points also. Hull and Leicester down IMHO.

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Newcastle I think will be safe in spite of their poor squad and dreadful form. They probably only need one point to be sure. The rest could all feature.

 

West Brom 33

Sunderland 29

Aston Villa 29

Hull 28

QPR 26

Burnley 26

Leicester 22

 

WBA have Leicester, Liverpool and Chelsea at home; Palace, United, Newcastle and Arsenal away. I would think they could muster 4 points from that, which ought to be enough, but they'll be worried if they don't beat Leicester. 37 points.

Sunderland have Palace, Saints and Leicester at home; Stoke, Everton, Arsenal and Chelsea away. Could see them getting between 4 and 7 points, but they'll be right in it. 33-36 points

Villa have Everton, West Ham and Burnley at home; Spurs, City, and Southampton away. I think we'll take 5-8 points - hopefully closer to the the latter. 34-37 points

Hull have Liverpool, Arsenal, Burnley and United at home; Saints, Palace and Spurs away. Hard to call their fixtures, they're tough but you just never know at this point. Could get anything between 2 and 8 points. 30-36. 

QPR have Chelsea, West Ham and Newcastle at home; Liverpool, Man City and Leicester away. I think they'll get 4-10 points. 30-36. 

Burnley have Arsenal, Leicester, Stoke at home; Everton, West Ham, Hull and Villa away. Would can see 7-9 points there, I think they could get out of it. 33-35.

Leicester have Swansea, Chelsea, Newcastle, Southampton, QPR at home; West Brom, Burnley and Sunderand away. It's a great run in, but they have a lot to do. Best I can see is 11 points, more likely is about 7. 29-33. 

 

The other thing to remember is that there's a lot of teams playing each other in there, so the best case scenario can't happen for all the clubs. I just wanted to do this because there are a lot of people saying 'we didn't win last night, so now our goose is cooked' etc. It's very much in our hands, and we're a better team and with better fixtures than a lot of the others down there. 

Edited by PatrickCousens
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Newcastle are out of it - agree completely.

 

WBA should be getting at least 2-3 points, so will be safe too (unfortunately)

 

Sunderland IMO could get more than 7 points from those fixtures - 4 of those opponents could potentially be on the beach when they play them. I'd say about 20% chance of them going down atm.

 

It's 3 out of Villa, Burnley, Hull, QPR and Leicester as I see it, and of those Villa should be slight favourites for nicking 16th. Playing Burnley last could be diabolic, though. 

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