leviramsey Posted January 15, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted January 15, 2015 Leicester: 54.8% ^^^Hull: 54.6% vvvvVilla: 50.3% vvvvQPR: 42.7% vvvPalace: 31.7% ^^^Burnley: 27.0% ^^^WBA: 22.4% ^^Sunderland: 14.4% vNewcastle: 1.0%Everton: 0.7%Stoke: 0.4% Leicester: 88.6%Palace: 59.6% vBurnley: 54.4%WBA: 45.2% vHull: 16.8% ^^Villa: 15.0% ^QPR: 13.7%Sunderland: 5.4%Everton: 1.3%In desperate desperate times, these often cheer me up, but seeing us third favourite knowing we're getting max three points in the next three matches, God knows what it'll look like then.It probably won't look that different. Right now, the model is predicting:against Liverpool: Villa win: 16%, Draw: 44%against Arsenal: Villa win: 3%, Draw: 18%against Chelsea: Villa win: 3%, Draw: 20%So the relegation chances are based on us getting between 1 and 2 points over the next three (averaging about 1.48 points). Lose all three, and we're not going to be that much worse (probably about 65%, tops). Get a point or two and it won't be that different from what it is now. Get three or more points and the percentage will really decrease. Hell, if we get one or two points in score draws, our chances will probably improve from the model increasing its expectation of goals scored.As it stands, the expected number of goals scored going forward (I'm pretty sure that my model effectively won't predict scoring less than 0.34 goals in a game, so where you see 0.34 is probably an overestimate)@ Man City: 0.34 goalsv Liverpool: 0.40 goalsv Chelsea: 0.34 goals@ Arsenal: 0.34 goalsv Everton: 0.37 goals@ Spurs: 0.34 goals@ Man Utd: 0.34 goals@ Soton: 0.34 goalsv Stoke: 0.44 goals@ Newcastle: 0.34 goalsv Swansea: 0.34 goalsv West Ham: 0.35 goals@ Sunderland: 0.34 goals@ Hull: 0.34 goalsv WBA: 0.48 goalsv Burnley: 0.45 goalsv QPR: 0.59 goalsAt this point I'm only expecting to see 6 or 7 league goals (and that's probably an overestimate) the rest of the way (on the flipside, I only expect Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Spurs, Man Utd, Southampton, Newcastle, and Sunderland to score against us; the rest are most likely to be 0-0). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted January 15, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted January 15, 2015 We're probably going to set a record this season for fewest league goals scored, and probably also set a record for fewest goals scored while not being relegated or fewest goals conceded while being relegated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 As bad as we look I still think there are 3 worse teams than us again and will stay up. Mind you in Lambert's 1st season I was convinced we will could down and stayed up-so I could be wrong this time. The squad is decent enough to stay up, and if we can start scoring some goals we should be fine. A big if though given the last half dozen, feeble, games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetrov Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I think Derby scored the fewest ever goals in the prem (20) - I think the least a club has stayed up with is 28 goals - its that stat what worries me most - weve got to double our scoring output between now and the end of the season to reach 28 goals.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It's points that keep you in the league If we score another 6 goals all season we can stay in the league Villa 1 Stoke 0 Villa 1 Swansea 0 Villa 1 WBA 0 Villa 1 QPR 0 Villa 1 Burnley 0 Sunderland 0 Villa 1 Where as if we win just three remaining games 3 -0 each and lose the rest 3-2 we are relegated. Extreme example of why goals scored, whilst a useful stick, doesnt really equate to league survival 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I did read somewhere that goals conceded are more important than scoring when analysing chances of survival. In that respect we look better off but the points need to pick up soon. 12 from 17 games is looking very much like relegation form. There's a good chance that it could be 12 from 20 games in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pacbuddies Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I think Derby scored the fewest ever goals in the prem (20) - I think the least a club has stayed up with is 28 goals - its that stat what worries me most - weve got to double our scoring output between now and the end of the season to reach 28 goals.... I posted the facts on the number of goals scored in a PL season a few weeks ago. Nobody has ever stayed up scoring less than 28 goals and only on 3 occasions in 19 seasons of the Premier League has anyone stayed up with less than 32 goals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I think Derby scored the fewest ever goals in the prem (20) - I think the least a club has stayed up with is 28 goals - its that stat what worries me most - weve got to double our scoring output between now and the end of the season to reach 28 goals.... I posted the facts on the number of goals scored in a PL season a few weeks ago. Nobody has ever stayed up scoring less than 28 goals and only on 3 occasions in 19 seasons of the Premier League has anyone stayed up with less than 32 goals. There's a positive record we can set then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 There are two worrying things for me .The obvious one being that after a very good start we have taken just 12 points from our last 17 games. That points per game ratio continues, and given how long a run it has been over there is every likelihood it will, then we are down. The other being how well we have done against the other struggling sides. There are seven teams below us and so far nine of our games have been against them. From those games we have taken 11 points. Reading this and the Lambert thread there seems to be an expectation from some that we can write games off against the better sides and pin all our hopes on beating the sides below us. Our record shows that is unlikely to be the case. I think the last time I posted in this thread was a couple of months ago and I said we won't go down as our team was too good. I still maintain that on paper this is the best squad of players we have had in the last 3-4 years but due to the managers continual failure to get anything like the best out of them I now believe there is a good chance we will drop. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 It's points that keep you in the league If we score another 6 goals all season we can stay in the league Villa 1 Stoke 0 Villa 1 Swansea 0 Villa 1 WBA 0 Villa 1 QPR 0 Villa 1 Burnley 0 Sunderland 0 Villa 1 Where as if we win just three remaining games 3 -0 each and lose the rest 3-2 we are relegated. Extreme example of why goals scored, whilst a useful stick, doesnt really equate to league survival I agree not that I enjoy this extreme low goalscoring. Think we only need to win 4 games rather than 6 as we'll draw another 5-6 games this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Albert Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 There isn't 3 teams worse than us in the league thats worrying. We will go down this year, I'd put my house on it. Im pissed off with trying to find positives/negatives about it now. The whole club is a shambles top to bottom. I've washed my hands with it all, it's getting me down far to much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudevillaisnice Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Think we will probably be in the bottom three after the Chelsea game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVTuco Posted January 17, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted January 17, 2015 Scared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roonst83 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Feels like this is the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Good that Leicester, QPR and Burnley lost at least. I thought Burnley would stay up but we'll see how they react to losing a 2 goal lead at home in a 6 pointer. Problem is predictably Palace and West Brom have picked up so there isn't that many teams below us to keep relying on to lose. I am pretty confident QPR now they can't win at home and Leicester (too much to make up even with their recent form) are down. Just not sure on the third team.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVFCAM Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 People saying there are 3 worse teams are in denial... We are only off the bottom because of a few sterling defensive displays when we won a few games by a goal to nil... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimzk5 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 36 points I reckon would be enough. 5 wins and a draw. Just cant see where those wins are coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wainy316 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 We have survived with far worse squads than we have now. Something is going terribly wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodgyknees Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 We won't go down. Squad is too good (my personal thoughts). Yeah, changed my mind. Still think the squad is good enough for 10-14th, unfortunately I think the manager and coaching is not premier league standard, and sucks the life out of good players. I think we will go down under Lambert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVilla Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 How are we going to win 5 games when we can't even score a single goal Especially when "We go again" with 4 CM's and Cleverley in the side every week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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