V01 Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 no it isn't, Elephants are before the Turtle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villakram Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 Queen Hillary Clinton is single digit percentage points behind Trump in the unfavorability polls. Let that sink in for a moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted May 4, 2016 Author Share Posted May 4, 2016 6 hours ago, HanoiVillan said: I hate to disagree, but it really isn't. He'd need to win every single remaining state by massive double digit scores to even get close to matching Clinton in pledged delegates, and then she has about 300 superdelegates extra on top. Like a worm without a head, he's finished he just hasn't stopped moving yet. Here's the thing- clearly Sanders has broad support among rank and file democrat voters. He is a viable candidate against Trump. If he continues picking off states like this, and somehow wins California, the super delegates (the most glaringly undemocratic concept in American electoral politics) might be tempted to change their vote, something they can do all the way through the convention, and that's what he's aiming for. Clinton and Trump are both despised by huge swaths of the voting public. Don't count Bernie out yet! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted May 4, 2016 Author Share Posted May 4, 2016 I love/hate the fact that you guys are better informed about American politics than most Americans! Sometimes I think the world knows us better than we know ourselves... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 25 minutes ago, maqroll said: Here's the thing- clearly Sanders has broad support among rank and file democrat voters. He is a viable candidate against Trump. If he continues picking off states like this, and somehow wins California, the super delegates (the most glaringly undemocratic concept in American electoral politics) might be tempted to change their vote, something they can do all the way through the convention, and that's what he's aiming for. Clinton and Trump are both despised by huge swaths of the voting public. Don't count Bernie out yet! I agree with basically everything about this post, except the conclusion that Bernie still has a chance. And as I said about two pages ago, I say that with a fairly heavy heart because he'd be so much closer to my own views than almost every other possible candidate. But from where he is, he ain't winning. As I also said before, though, that doesn't mean his candidacy hasn't been a massive achievement in its' own right, because it's shattered rules and preconceptions I didn't think I'd see broken. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa4europe Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 I love/hate the fact that you guys are better informed about American politics than most Americans! Sometimes I think the world knows us better than we know ourselves... As an outsider occasionally looking in to American politics and more than happy to accept I'm wrong...America to me seems to have a far lower percentage of floating voters (think you'll refer to them as swing voters) political parties are like sports teams, you pick one / get born in to one and that's your party who you'll support ferociously and passionately regardless of half the things the come out with Basically I'm lazily branding American voters with not being informed about politics because they've already made their decision so manifestos etc are incidental Will be interesting to see if Obama with the black vote and now trump being an utter dick splits that trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 44 minutes ago, maqroll said: I love/hate the fact that you guys are better informed about American politics than most Americans! Sometimes I think the world knows us better than we know ourselves... I'm a politics geek really. I have two levels of feelings about the American political system: the first is the standard British left-wing thought that it's hopelessly logjammed, endlessly corrupt, has a variety of negative outcomes that never seem to change around sending people (especially black people) to prison, gun crime, Israel-Palestine etc etc. That's the side that gets easily depressed about things. But I temper that with a more dispassionate interest in the procedure, the endless primaries and campaigns and delegates and whatever, each state with a different set of rules and I find that shit fascinating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted May 4, 2016 Author Share Posted May 4, 2016 (edited) It should also be noted that Hillary is being investigated by the FBI, and if the political machinations click and turn in a way that allows her to be indicted, her campaign would be finished. In that scenario, the Dem establishment could either try to draft a new mainstream candidate like Joe Biden, or just stick with pesky Sanders, who beats Trump in just about every poll. Edited May 4, 2016 by maqroll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted May 4, 2016 Moderator Share Posted May 4, 2016 I think Sanders is now campaigning for influence rather than leadership. I hope he continues to do well - but I have a feeling he'll be completely ignored once Hillary has the wheel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mantis Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 (edited) Unless something drastic happens Trump simply won't win. He can't as things stand basically. His unfavourability ratings among the American general population are at historic highs and the only group he has any sort of chance with is non-young white males, who aren't as big as a percentage of the electorate as they used to be. Add to that the fact that he's despised by many neoconservative and evangelical Republicans and he doesn't stand a chance. Edited May 4, 2016 by Mantis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted May 4, 2016 Author Share Posted May 4, 2016 30 minutes ago, Mantis said: Unless something drastic happens Trump simply won't win. He can't as things stand basically. His unfavourability ratings among the American general population are at historic highs and the only group he has any sort of chance with is non-young white males, who aren't as big as a percentage of the electorate as they used to be. Add to that the fact that he's despised by many neoconservative and evangelical Republicans and he doesn't stand a chance. There is one politician in America who is just as hated- Clinton. The GOP and Dems have managed to put up two of the most despised people in their own parties to represent them. It's incredible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villakram Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 24 minutes ago, Mantis said: Unless something drastic happens Trump simply won't win. He can't as things stand basically. His unfavourability ratings among the American general population are at historic highs and the only group he has any sort of chance with is non-young white males, who aren't as big as a percentage of the electorate as they used to be. Add to that the fact that he's despised by many neoconservative and evangelical Republicans and he doesn't stand a chance. This point of view is consistent with the main stream political consensus. The same consensus that had Trump imploding about 6 months back and Hillary enjoying a leisurely procession towards coronation. Trump on his own is a horrible choice... but Trump vs Clinton is a completely different game, for example, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/clinton_favorableunfavorable-1131.html -- Hillary http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html -- Donald Aggregate polling data shows Clinton at 54% unfavourable as of now!!! This is not truly appreciated by the "mainstream" as of yet. Whether this is due to wishful thinking or ignorance is unclear. But last night on msnbc, Micheal Steele made this point in a very clear manner and all of the assembled pro democrats had nothing to reply with as they understand the truly new nature of this election. Trump is a real danger to win *this* election. If he is to lose, this point must be accepted now as complacency will lead to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mantis Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 (edited) 2 hours ago, villakram said: This point of view is consistent with the main stream political consensus. The same consensus that had Trump imploding about 6 months back and Hillary enjoying a leisurely procession towards coronation. Trump on his own is a horrible choice... but Trump vs Clinton is a completely different game, for example, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/clinton_favorableunfavorable-1131.html -- Hillary http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html -- Donald Aggregate polling data shows Clinton at 54% unfavourable as of now!!! This is not truly appreciated by the "mainstream" as of yet. Whether this is due to wishful thinking or ignorance is unclear. But last night on msnbc, Micheal Steele made this point in a very clear manner and all of the assembled pro democrats had nothing to reply with as they understand the truly new nature of this election. Trump is a real danger to win *this* election. If he is to lose, this point must be accepted now as complacency will lead to... I think there's quite a difference between Trump winning the primary and winning the election, not least becuase women and minorities make up a bigger proportion of the electorate as a whole than the Republican primary voters. Trump just doesn't have much of an appeal to Democrats and Independents and puts off far more than he attracts. The fact that there are some Republicans saying they'll vote for Clinton over him is quite telling. I'm not ruling anything out but as things stand it's highly unlikely. Edited May 4, 2016 by Mantis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Zen Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 (edited) 3 hours ago, maqroll said: I love/hate the fact that you guys are better informed about American politics than most Americans! Sometimes I think the world knows us better than we know ourselves... But we're essentially a bunch of nerds. Most people I speak to here might think they know US politics but in truth they know f... all. Edited May 4, 2016 by Michelsen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarewsEyebrowDesigner Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 I'll reserve judgment until fivethirtyeight do a detailed breakdown of the swing states & give a percentage chance of both candidate's chances of winning them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted May 4, 2016 Author Share Posted May 4, 2016 22 minutes ago, Michelsen said: But we're essentially a bunch of nerds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mozzavfc Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 45 minutes ago, Mantis said: I think there's quite a difference between Trump winning the primary and winning the election, not least becuase women and minorities make up a bigger proportion of the electorate as a whole than the Republican primary voters. Trump just doesn't have much of an appeal to Democrats and Independents and puts off far more than he attracts. The fact that there are some Republicans saying they'll vote for Clinton over him is quite telling. I'm not ruling anything out but as things stand it's highly unlikely. Im sure the reverse is true though. I bet some Bernie supporters would vote Trump as a protest/ anyone-but-Hillary vote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 Failed Candidate Cruz Takes Out Anger On Unfortunate Wife 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mantis Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Mozzavfc said: Im sure the reverse is true though. I bet some Bernie supporters would vote Trump as a protest/ anyone-but-Hillary vote I expect there are more Republicans willing to vote for Clinton than Democrats willing to vote for Trump. I mean, this place is pretty left-wing, is there anybody here who would seriously vote for Trump because Sanders didn't get the nomination? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted May 4, 2016 Author Share Posted May 4, 2016 17 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: Failed Candidate Cruz Takes Out Anger On Unfortunate Wife Hahaha, is that real? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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