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maqroll

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5 hours ago, CarewsEyebrowDesigner said:

I'll reserve judgment until fivethirtyeight do a detailed breakdown of the swing states & give a percentage chance of both candidate's chances of winning them.

Nate has been caught out quite badly a few times already. Not especially his fault as he is only as good as his data, but there is something up here, as the polls have been way off on at least 2 prominent occasions, e.g., Sanders in Michigan and Indiana... and that's completely ignoring the polling which has been predicting Trump to fall apart from way back. Seems to me that there is an unaccounted for selection bias in the standard polling techniques, that is being revealed this cycle.

Edited by villakram
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Quote

 

A recording obtained by The Washington Post captures what New York reporters and editors who covered Trump’s early career experienced in the 1970s, ’80s and ’90s: calls from Trump’s Manhattan office that resulted in conversations with “John Miller” or “John Barron” — public-relations men who sound precisely like Trump himself — who indeed are Trump, masquerading as an unusually helpful and boastful advocate for himself, according to the journalists and several of Trump’s top aides.

washington post

amazing/terrifying/unsurprising

Edited by CarewsEyebrowDesigner
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This moron has challenged Sadiq Khan to an IQ test, as a riposte to Khan's claims that Trump's views on Islam are ignorant.

I'm not entirely sure that Donald Trump knows what an IQ test is, if he thinks that his (presumably rather slim)  chance of beating Khan at one would somehow show that his views on Islam aren't ignorant. Hell, I'm not even sure he could complete an IQ test, with his tiny hands. Will he have an assistant to operate the pen or mouse?

America, this joke isn't funny anymore.

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I have only just noticed this thread - so I haven't read it all - and I apologize if I am repeating stuff, or stating the obvious

1. A current  poll in my home state GA showed Trump only ahead of Clinton by 45-41 !!    In Georgia !!

2. Don't forget the Senatorial races down ticket. There is a definite feeling that a big win for Clinton will hand the Senate back to the Democrats

3. Ted Cruz is the most abominable piece of slime on the planet   see  NYT Article

4. Clinton is having to move to the left under pressure from Sanders - she has to,- to woo his supporters. Good

5. Conversely, Sanders has to be aware that anything other than an strong  endorsement of her will harm the Democrats. His supporters may well split the vote otherwise

6. Trump really is a candidate with the educational level of an 11yr old - or he just talks that way because that's the level of his base.

7. Despite the stupid fear of "Socialism" in this country - some polls have shown Sanders beating Trump by a bigger margin than Clinton does.

8. Apparently, top of the list for Trumps VP pick - Newt Gingrich !!  . - obviously trying to secure the "cheating philandering scumbag" vote.

Only in America !!!

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1 hour ago, SirSteveUK said:

Only in America !!!

Dunno, have you been keeping up with events in Brazil? 

Every country is a beautiful disaster of human beings just not being able to get their shit together.

#stillevolving

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8 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

And the US funded and managed coup?

 

Link?

I'm as cynical as anyone when it comes to Uncle Sam's foreign perversions, but I haven't seen any proven connection, even on The Intercept.

 

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I really worry that things might boil over during the summer and at the conventions. It's like the whole country is on edge here...a very strange sort of dread hangs in the air. I think even hardened political fatalists have been shocked at the violence and general menacing tone coming from the right wing. Rabid racism, fear, ignorance and violence, it's a total nightmare. 

If my choices are Clinton or Trump, I'm not voting. **** the system!

 

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On 5/17/2016 at 22:51, SirSteveUK said:

I have only just noticed this thread - so I haven't read it all - and I apologize if I am repeating stuff, or stating the obvious

1. A current  poll in my home state GA showed Trump only ahead of Clinton by 45-41 !!    In Georgia !!

2. Don't forget the Senatorial races down ticket. There is a definite feeling that a big win for Clinton will hand the Senate back to the Democrats

3. Ted Cruz is the most abominable piece of slime on the planet   see  NYT Article

4. Clinton is having to move to the left under pressure from Sanders - she has to,- to woo his supporters. Good

5. Conversely, Sanders has to be aware that anything other than an strong  endorsement of her will harm the Democrats. His supporters may well split the vote otherwise

6. Trump really is a candidate with the educational level of an 11yr old - or he just talks that way because that's the level of his base.

7. Despite the stupid fear of "Socialism" in this country - some polls have shown Sanders beating Trump by a bigger margin than Clinton does.

8. Apparently, top of the list for Trumps VP pick - Newt Gingrich !!  . - obviously trying to secure the "cheating philandering scumbag" vote.

Only in America !!!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Literacy_in_the_United_States

"The 15% figure for full literacy, equivalent to a university undergraduate level, is consistent with the notion that the "average" American reads at a 7th or 8th grade level which is also consistent with recommendations, guidelines, and norms of readability for medication directions, product information, and popular fiction." His base. i.e., you mean Americans?

It is claimed that Trump is a moron... maybe, just maybe, he knows his audience :( The reason he has gotten this far is in large part due to the dismissive attitude of those who deem themselves superior (culturally, morally etc.).  Trump is not responsible for the huge US prison population, gun deaths, ongoing racial segregation of the school system, 10-15m immigrants living in legal purgatory, the destruction of the middle class etc. etc. But ya, let's all focus on Trump because then we don't have to look in the mirror. 

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On 5/17/2016 at 05:33, maqroll said:

I really worry that things might boil over during the summer and at the conventions. It's like the whole country is on edge here...a very strange sort of dread hangs in the air. I think even hardened political fatalists have been shocked at the violence and general menacing tone coming from the right wing. Rabid racism, fear, ignorance and violence, it's a total nightmare. 

If my choices are Clinton or Trump, I'm not voting. **** the system!

 

Gary Johnson will also be on the poll in all 50 states. No that it necessarily helps, but I'd certainly rate him higher than those other two bread & circus clowns.

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